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Post by thomasj13 on Oct 5, 2022 20:25:31 GMT -6
Correa actually had a good season and showed that he can stay mostly healthy two years in a row. Now that he won't have a draft compensation pick tied to him, I wonder if there will be stronger interest. His 2022 numbers going into the final game:.291/.366/.467 .834 OPS (139 OPS+) 22 HR 64 RBI 70 Runs 5.4 WAR If you believe in WAR, he was close to the same overall value as Altuve, and was slightly better than Pena (although not significantly so). Offensively from a percentage standpoint, he would have been the 3rd best player on our team behind Yordan and Altuve. It was another good season, but you still feel like he isn't reaching his potential offensively. Still not close to 30 HRs, didn't steal any bases at all for unknown reasons (when even Yuli stole 8), still didn't drive in 100 RBI, etc. I honestly believe if he would keep his mouth shut, he'd get a $250+ million deal from a contender. He’s more valuable than the fans believe but less than what he believes. The gap is coming more from his end. |
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Post by Ashitaka on Jan 4, 2023 12:54:28 GMT -6
One of my friends from the TCB days sent us ex writers an email about Altuve this morning, and I thought I would share it: "Jose Altuve is still improving in a really odd way. I've read before (a long time ago) that plate discipline is an exceptionally hard skill to develop as a professional, and that most discipline skills for players are set in place in college or early in the minors, mostly because it's all psychological/reaction.
But Jose Altuve has improved consistently and drastically since entering the majors, and in his early 30's he's still improving. Check this out: Linearizing this walk rate since joining the league shows he has averaged an improvement of over 6%!!!
I wouldn't throw around things like "unheard of", but I am fairly confident in saying that this is extremely unusual. The orange line represents over 950,000 plate appearances by all qualified batters during that same time period, and you can see that there has not been an appreciable league-wide improvement in BB% (which I wanted to check in order to see if this is an Altuve improvement, or a league-wide improvement caused by something external, such as the crackdown on sticky substances, the changes in the ball, or improvements in humidors, or whatever). Looks like it's an Altuve thing.
With more time, I could probably figure an XY scatter plot of all players during that time to see how much of an outlier Altuve is, but I probably won't, haha.
Anyway, wanted to bring that to your attention, only because I think Altuve continues to be one of the very most fascinating players alive (as he has been for his whole career, for various reasons), but he has not been talked about much lately, with the advent of Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, and the other shiny new objects." |
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Post by Ashitaka on Jan 4, 2023 13:21:38 GMT -6
Another guy had a good response:
"In 2021 I presented some comments on Altuve…mostly in response to people who were complaining that they wanted Altuve to return to the “old Altuve” who didn’t try to hit HRs, take pitches, and was an annual batting average champion. In my view, Altuve seemed to be adopting what Bill James called “old player skills,” which are basically relying on walks and HRs and sometimes conceding batting average. The theory is that as some players get older they realize that their reflex batting skills are diminished (even if it would be unnoticeable to the average person), and learn to adapt their approach in order to maintain/improve their batting value. You will see valuable older batters become more patient and pull the ball more and perhaps elevate the ball more. Rather than complain, people should recognize that smart players learn how to adapt and give value to their team. I think this described Altuve after he crossed 30 years of age. The remarkable thing is that he combined a higher BB% this year with a batting average that is closer to his familiar territory.
I think it’s hard to find batters who improved as much in BB% over time as Altuve because he started at such a low percentage level. Typically batters who start out at 3% BB don’t have long careers. A batter who came to mind is Hunter Pence, because his career began with low BB%--but it wasn’t as low as Altuve. But Pence did show a gradual increase in BB% over his career, though not as dramatic as Altuve. I think you will find some significant increases in BB% among batters with long careers. For instance, Nelson Cruz didn’t start out as a bad BB% hitter, but as he got older his BB% rose to exceptionally high levels.
When Altuve entered the league, people seemed to believe that batting approach like walk rate and K rate wouldn’t improve by the time players reached the major leagues. I don’t think Luhnow ever accepted that. From the beginning he said Altuve could improve his walk rate over time—and the Astros’ coaches worked with him on that. Players like Springer showed that it is possible to reduce K rates too."
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Post by Saint on Jan 4, 2023 13:22:16 GMT -6
One of my friends from the TCB days sent us ex writers an email about Altuve this morning, and I thought I would share it: "Jose Altuve is still improving in a really odd way. I've read before (a long time ago) that plate discipline is an exceptionally hard skill to develop as a professional, and that most discipline skills for players are set in place in college or early in the minors, mostly because it's all psychological/reaction.
But Jose Altuve has improved consistently and drastically since entering the majors, and in his early 30's he's still improving. Check this out:Linearizing this walk rate since joining the league shows he has averaged an improvement of over 6%!!!
I wouldn't throw around things like "unheard of", but I am fairly confident in saying that this is extremely unusual. The orange line represents over 950,000 plate appearances by all qualified batters during that same time period, and you can see that there has not been an appreciable league-wide improvement in BB% (which I wanted to check in order to see if this is an Altuve improvement, or a league-wide improvement caused by something external, such as the crackdown on sticky substances, the changes in the ball, or improvements in humidors, or whatever). Looks like it's an Altuve thing.
With more time, I could probably figure an XY scatter plot of all players during that time to see how much of an outlier Altuve is, but I probably won't, haha.
Anyway, wanted to bring that to your attention, only because I think Altuve continues to be one of the very most fascinating players alive (as he has been for his whole career, for various reasons), but he has not been talked about much lately, with the advent of Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, and the other shiny new objects."I know he finished top-5 in MVP voting and won the SS for 2nd base, but I still feel like he had an underrated year offensively in 2022. He also had one of his best years running the bases since his prime. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 4, 2023 14:45:41 GMT -6
One of my friends from the TCB days sent us ex writers an email about Altuve this morning, and I thought I would share it: "Jose Altuve is still improving in a really odd way. I've read before (a long time ago) that plate discipline is an exceptionally hard skill to develop as a professional, and that most discipline skills for players are set in place in college or early in the minors, mostly because it's all psychological/reaction.
But Jose Altuve has improved consistently and drastically since entering the majors, and in his early 30's he's still improving. Check this out:Linearizing this walk rate since joining the league shows he has averaged an improvement of over 6%!!!
I wouldn't throw around things like "unheard of", but I am fairly confident in saying that this is extremely unusual. The orange line represents over 950,000 plate appearances by all qualified batters during that same time period, and you can see that there has not been an appreciable league-wide improvement in BB% (which I wanted to check in order to see if this is an Altuve improvement, or a league-wide improvement caused by something external, such as the crackdown on sticky substances, the changes in the ball, or improvements in humidors, or whatever). Looks like it's an Altuve thing.
With more time, I could probably figure an XY scatter plot of all players during that time to see how much of an outlier Altuve is, but I probably won't, haha.
Anyway, wanted to bring that to your attention, only because I think Altuve continues to be one of the very most fascinating players alive (as he has been for his whole career, for various reasons), but he has not been talked about much lately, with the advent of Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, and the other shiny new objects."I know he finished top-5 in MVP voting and won the SS for 2nd base, but I still feel like he had an underrated year offensively in 2022. He also had one of his best years running the bases since his prime. So much so that at least 3 well-respected members of this forum want him demoted to replace Aledmys. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 4, 2023 14:45:45 GMT -6
One of my friends from the TCB days sent us ex writers an email about Altuve this morning, and I thought I would share it: "Jose Altuve is still improving in a really odd way. I've read before (a long time ago) that plate discipline is an exceptionally hard skill to develop as a professional, and that most discipline skills for players are set in place in college or early in the minors, mostly because it's all psychological/reaction.
But Jose Altuve has improved consistently and drastically since entering the majors, and in his early 30's he's still improving. Check this out:Linearizing this walk rate since joining the league shows he has averaged an improvement of over 6%!!!
I wouldn't throw around things like "unheard of", but I am fairly confident in saying that this is extremely unusual. The orange line represents over 950,000 plate appearances by all qualified batters during that same time period, and you can see that there has not been an appreciable league-wide improvement in BB% (which I wanted to check in order to see if this is an Altuve improvement, or a league-wide improvement caused by something external, such as the crackdown on sticky substances, the changes in the ball, or improvements in humidors, or whatever). Looks like it's an Altuve thing.
With more time, I could probably figure an XY scatter plot of all players during that time to see how much of an outlier Altuve is, but I probably won't, haha.
Anyway, wanted to bring that to your attention, only because I think Altuve continues to be one of the very most fascinating players alive (as he has been for his whole career, for various reasons), but he has not been talked about much lately, with the advent of Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, and the other shiny new objects."I know he finished top-5 in MVP voting and won the SS for 2nd base, but I still feel like he had an underrated year offensively in 2022. He also had one of his best years running the bases since his prime. Last season was his best in years. It’s hard to argue with .300 and power with more plate discipline. He can hit in any direction now without the extreme shifts. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 4, 2023 14:46:15 GMT -6
I know he finished top-5 in MVP voting and won the SS for 2nd base, but I still feel like he had an underrated year offensively in 2022. He also had one of his best years running the bases since his prime. So much so that at least 3 well-respected members of this forum want him demoted to replace Aledmys. Point out who wanted Altuve demoted, sir. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 4, 2023 14:47:06 GMT -6
So much so that at least 3 well-respected members of this forum want him demoted to replace Aledmys. Point out who wanted Altuve demoted, sir. You, for one. You posted it in clear English |
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Post by Saint on Jan 4, 2023 14:58:44 GMT -6
I know he finished top-5 in MVP voting and won the SS for 2nd base, but I still feel like he had an underrated year offensively in 2022. He also had one of his best years running the bases since his prime. So much so that at least 3 well-respected members of this forum want him demoted to replace Aledmys. I've only seen Ash suggest it, and Sherwin hate on his defense. Which, his defense was definitely not good last year if you believe the defensive metrics, but I still don't completely trust those metrics. Who else wants him demoted? I could see a case for him to play LF with his speed, but realistically I don't think he has the arm strength to do it anywhere but MMP and our smaller LF. The goal should be to have him play 2B for at least the duration of this contract, and then maybe he can DH the last few years (i.e. Paul Molitor) if Yordan proves that he can cover LF and doesn't need to DH much. I'll be curious to see if his defense bounces back some with the shift eliminated. Sometimes he looks hesitant out there, and maybe having to worry less about what will be his play, or Pena's, will help. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 4, 2023 15:11:48 GMT -6
Point out who wanted Altuve demoted, sir. You, for one. You posted it in clear English I don’t see where anyone said he shouldn’t be a starter i.e. play less. If he’s not playing less, it’s not a demotion. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 4, 2023 17:31:12 GMT -6
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 4, 2023 17:32:24 GMT -6
So much so that at least 3 well-respected members of this forum want him demoted to replace Aledmys. I've only seen Ash suggest it, and Sherwin hate on his defense. Which, his defense was definitely not good last year if you believe the defensive metrics, but I still don't completely trust those metrics. Who else wants him demoted? I could see a case for him to play LF with his speed, but realistically I don't think he has the arm strength to do it anywhere but MMP and our smaller LF. The goal should be to have him play 2B for at least the duration of this contract, and then maybe he can DH the last few years (i.e. Paul Molitor) if Yordan proves that he can cover LF and doesn't need to DH much. I'll be curious to see if his defense bounces back some with the shift eliminated. Sometimes he looks hesitant out there, and maybe having to worry less about what will be his play, or Pena's, will help. Ash, Sherwin, and ol papa is leaning that way. |
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Post by Saint on Jan 4, 2023 17:53:36 GMT -6
I've only seen Ash suggest it, and Sherwin hate on his defense. Which, his defense was definitely not good last year if you believe the defensive metrics, but I still don't completely trust those metrics. Who else wants him demoted? I could see a case for him to play LF with his speed, but realistically I don't think he has the arm strength to do it anywhere but MMP and our smaller LF. The goal should be to have him play 2B for at least the duration of this contract, and then maybe he can DH the last few years (i.e. Paul Molitor) if Yordan proves that he can cover LF and doesn't need to DH much. I'll be curious to see if his defense bounces back some with the shift eliminated. Sometimes he looks hesitant out there, and maybe having to worry less about what will be his play, or Pena's, will help. Ash, Sherwin, and ol papa is leaning that way. I think his defense since the 2020 ALCS has got people down on his overall value at 2B. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 4, 2023 17:56:41 GMT -6
I've only seen Ash suggest it, and Sherwin hate on his defense. Which, his defense was definitely not good last year if you believe the defensive metrics, but I still don't completely trust those metrics. Who else wants him demoted? I could see a case for him to play LF with his speed, but realistically I don't think he has the arm strength to do it anywhere but MMP and our smaller LF. The goal should be to have him play 2B for at least the duration of this contract, and then maybe he can DH the last few years (i.e. Paul Molitor) if Yordan proves that he can cover LF and doesn't need to DH much. I'll be curious to see if his defense bounces back some with the shift eliminated. Sometimes he looks hesitant out there, and maybe having to worry less about what will be his play, or Pena's, will help. Ash, Sherwin, and ol papa is leaning that way. Leave pops out of this! |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 4, 2023 17:57:22 GMT -6
Ash, Sherwin, and ol papa is leaning that way. I think his defense since the 2020 ALCS has got people down on his overall value at 2B. He had a bad hamstring and who knows for how long. |
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Post by Ashitaka on Jan 4, 2023 18:14:37 GMT -6
One of my friends from the TCB days sent us ex writers an email about Altuve this morning, and I thought I would share it: "Jose Altuve is still improving in a really odd way. I've read before (a long time ago) that plate discipline is an exceptionally hard skill to develop as a professional, and that most discipline skills for players are set in place in college or early in the minors, mostly because it's all psychological/reaction.
But Jose Altuve has improved consistently and drastically since entering the majors, and in his early 30's he's still improving. Check this out:Linearizing this walk rate since joining the league shows he has averaged an improvement of over 6%!!!
I wouldn't throw around things like "unheard of", but I am fairly confident in saying that this is extremely unusual. The orange line represents over 950,000 plate appearances by all qualified batters during that same time period, and you can see that there has not been an appreciable league-wide improvement in BB% (which I wanted to check in order to see if this is an Altuve improvement, or a league-wide improvement caused by something external, such as the crackdown on sticky substances, the changes in the ball, or improvements in humidors, or whatever). Looks like it's an Altuve thing.
With more time, I could probably figure an XY scatter plot of all players during that time to see how much of an outlier Altuve is, but I probably won't, haha.
Anyway, wanted to bring that to your attention, only because I think Altuve continues to be one of the very most fascinating players alive (as he has been for his whole career, for various reasons), but he has not been talked about much lately, with the advent of Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, and the other shiny new objects."I know he finished top-5 in MVP voting and won the SS for 2nd base, but I still feel like he had an underrated year offensively in 2022. He also had one of his best years running the bases since his prime. Career-best wRC+ (164, better than 2017's 160) and career-high walk rate. I'm interested to see what he does with the new rules that should make base-stealing easier. Could probably be a 30-30 guy if he wanted. But at the very least the 200 HR and 300 SB milestones should come by the end of the year. |
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Post by inaltuvewetrust on Jan 4, 2023 21:08:07 GMT -6
2,000 hits as well. Only needs 65.
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Post by Saint on Jan 4, 2023 22:50:01 GMT -6
If he has another good year and stays healthy, Altuve will reach the following next year:
2000 Hits
1000 Runs
400 Doubles
200 HR
300 SB (might be a stretch)
50 WAR
Continues his franchise record AS appearances.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 4, 2023 23:07:26 GMT -6
If he has another good year and stays healthy, Altuve will reach the following next year: 2000 Hits 1000 Runs 400 Doubles 200 HR 300 SB (might be a stretch) 50 WAR Continues his franchise record AS appearances. At his position, that tracks to Hall of Fame credentials. |
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Post by Ashitaka on Jan 4, 2023 23:43:34 GMT -6
If he has another good year and stays healthy, Altuve will reach the following next year: 2000 Hits 1000 Runs 400 Doubles 200 HR 300 SB (might be a stretch) 50 WAR Continues his franchise record AS appearances. He only needs 3 more stolen bases than he had last season with the old rules, so I'd almost be surprised not to see it (barring injury of course). He's liable to hit 65 WAR by the time he's 35 or so, and there are very few guys to do that and not make it in. Just hope in another 10-15 years the writers don't do something stupid and try to blame the banging on him or whatever. |
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Post by Ashitaka on Jan 4, 2023 23:45:56 GMT -6
If he has another good year and stays healthy, Altuve will reach the following next year: 2000 Hits 1000 Runs 400 Doubles 200 HR 300 SB (might be a stretch) 50 WAR Continues his franchise record AS appearances. At his position, that tracks to Hall of Fame credentials. I don't think that would be enough. Stolen bases aside, Jeff Kent has all that and more and they won't let him in for some reason. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 5, 2023 6:38:44 GMT -6
At his position, that tracks to Hall of Fame credentials. I don't think that would be enough. Stolen bases aside, Jeff Kent has all that and more and they won't let him in for some reason. I was saying it will be if the trends continue. The biggest obstacle is the scandal. For any of the 2017-2019 members, it’ll take some time. As much as the younger voters whine about letting in the steroids guys, they hate the Astros. |
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Post by Saint on Jan 5, 2023 8:53:44 GMT -6
If he has another good year and stays healthy, Altuve will reach the following next year: 2000 Hits 1000 Runs 400 Doubles 200 HR 300 SB (might be a stretch) 50 WAR Continues his franchise record AS appearances. At his position, that tracks to Hall of Fame credentials. Definitely getting close, but a few more solid-to-good years and another ring would seal it. |
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Post by Saint on Jan 5, 2023 8:54:14 GMT -6
If he has another good year and stays healthy, Altuve will reach the following next year: 2000 Hits 1000 Runs 400 Doubles 200 HR 300 SB (might be a stretch) 50 WAR Continues his franchise record AS appearances. He only needs 3 more stolen bases than he had last season with the old rules, so I'd almost be surprised not to see it (barring injury of course). He's liable to hit 65 WAR by the time he's 35 or so, and there are very few guys to do that and not make it in. Just hope in another 10-15 years the writers don't do something stupid and try to blame the banging on him or whatever. I think if Beltran gets in at some point, Altuve will get in. |
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Post by Saint on Jan 5, 2023 8:54:44 GMT -6
At his position, that tracks to Hall of Fame credentials. I don't think that would be enough. Stolen bases aside, Jeff Kent has all that and more and they won't let him in for some reason. Which is ridiculous. Isn't he the all-time leader in HR for 2B? |
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