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Post by unionstation82 on May 30, 2024 11:35:45 GMT -6
End of message.
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Post by Ashitaka on May 30, 2024 12:03:49 GMT -6
So I can't help but do some research now.
47 GIDP, tied with Toronoto for 5th most in baseball (Padres, Yankees, Marlins, Giants are worse).
15 sac flies, dead middle of the pack at 15th out of 30.
37 stolen bases is 13th most of 30 teams. They have the third-fewest caught stealing after only Texas and Toronto. Fangraphs tracks wSB which is runs above or below average based on both steals and caught stealing; they are tied for 6th best at +1.1
Team LD% is 20.1%, 10th of 30 teams and just 0.5% behind 6th place Atlanta.
There are not a lot of bunting statistics available, but I was able to find that they have the 7th most bunt hits (7), and their bunt hit percentage (percentage of bunts that become hits) is third best in baseball at 70%!
Interestingly, they are tied with Baltimore for 5th in wRC+ at 111, and they are also 5th in wOBA. I was stunned to learn they make the LEAST amount of soft contact of all teams (5th worst in hard contact though, they are the kinds of medium contact), and only three teams pop up less than they do. How can this team be 4th-best in pop up rate!? They strike out the least often of any team (their team walk rate is notably down though, in the bottom 10). Team BAbip is also in the top 10.
In short, there is no obvious culprit. They actually look pretty good on average. This leads me to the hypothesis that they are just atrocious situationally. They will have their baserunners and just not drive guys in. As we saw last night, they outhit the other team and lost by one. They are on pace to break the all-time record for most one-run losses. They are just choking, plain and simple. So off I go to Fangraphs Clutch stat. Fangraphs describes this as "how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context-neutral environment." If a player or team in this case does well normally but then chokes in clutch situations (RBI opportunities, late and close, etc.) then they will have a negative number.
Drumroll...
Houston is dead last, -3.86, in all of baseball. The stats back up what we're all seeing in this case; they just suck in clutch situations.
EDIT: so that ties back into the GIDP thing. A GIDP is inherently a very un-clutch result, turning a great opportunity into a disaster. But rather than GIDPs being the problem, they are one symptom of the problem.
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koolade2
Veteran
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Post by koolade2 on May 30, 2024 12:21:00 GMT -6
where is the choice of All THE ABOVE
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Post by Ashitaka on May 30, 2024 12:32:54 GMT -6
So just to hurt us all some more, I just sorted the individual player leaderboards for Clutch. Among all 157 qualified batters, here are how our guys rank in Clutch.
Jeremy Pena: -0.80 (151)
Alex Bregman: -0.79 (149)
Yordan Alvarez: -0.73 (145)
Yainer Diaz: -0.46 (123)
Jose Altuve: -0.38 (112)
Kyle Tucker: +0.03 (76)
If I set it to count all players with at least 50 plate appearances, there are now 394 players. Pena is 384 out of 394. Meyers shows up on the list as being better only than Pena, Bregman, and Yordan on our club. McCormick is tied with Yainer Diaz.
What this means is that SEVEN of the everyday players in this lineup (Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, Meyers, Pena, McCormick, and Diaz) are ALL among the least clutch 20% of all hitters in baseball with at least 50 PA.
I don't even know what to say. There has never been a team that has a greater claim to be cursed than this one. They, as a unit, are maybe the greatest choke artists in baseball history, considering their talent level and salary.
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Post by thomasj13 on May 30, 2024 17:43:06 GMT -6
So I can't help but do some research now. 47 GIDP, tied with Toronoto for 5th most in baseball (Padres, Yankees, Marlins, Giants are worse). 15 sac flies, dead middle of the pack at 15th out of 30. 37 stolen bases is 13th most of 30 teams. They have the third-fewest caught stealing after only Texas and Toronto. Fangraphs tracks wSB which is runs above or below average based on both steals and caught stealing; they are tied for 6th best at +1.1 Team LD% is 20.1%, 10th of 30 teams and just 0.5% behind 6th place Atlanta. There are not a lot of bunting statistics available, but I was able to find that they have the 7th most bunt hits (7), and their bunt hit percentage (percentage of bunts that become hits) is third best in baseball at 70%! Interestingly, they are tied with Baltimore for 5th in wRC+ at 111, and they are also 5th in wOBA. I was stunned to learn they make the LEAST amount of soft contact of all teams (5th worst in hard contact though, they are the kinds of medium contact), and only three teams pop up less than they do. How can this team be 4th-best in pop up rate!? They strike out the least often of any team (their team walk rate is notably down though, in the bottom 10). Team BAbip is also in the top 10. In short, there is no obvious culprit. They actually look pretty good on average. This leads me to the hypothesis that they are just atrocious situationally. They will have their baserunners and just not drive guys in. As we saw last night, they outhit the other team and lost by one. They are on pace to break the all-time record for most one-run losses. They are just choking, plain and simple. So off I go to Fangraphs Clutch stat. Fangraphs describes this as "how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context-neutral environment." If a player or team in this case does well normally but then chokes in clutch situations (RBI opportunities, late and close, etc.) then they will have a negative number. Drumroll... Houston is dead last, -3.86, in all of baseball. The stats back up what we're all seeing in this case; they just suck in clutch situations. EDIT: so that ties back into the GIDP thing. A GIDP is inherently a very un-clutch result, turning a great opportunity into a disaster. But rather than GIDPs being the problem, they are one symptom of the problem. Get Bucky? |
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Post by Saint on May 30, 2024 18:03:01 GMT -6
So just to hurt us all some more, I just sorted the individual player leaderboards for Clutch. Among all 157 qualified batters, here are how our guys rank in Clutch. Jeremy Pena: -0.80 (151) Alex Bregman: -0.79 (149) Yordan Alvarez: -0.73 (145) Yainer Diaz: -0.46 (123) Jose Altuve: -0.38 (112) Kyle Tucker: +0.03 (76) If I set it to count all players with at least 50 plate appearances, there are now 394 players. Pena is 384 out of 394. Meyers shows up on the list as being better only than Pena, Bregman, and Yordan on our club. McCormick is tied with Yainer Diaz. What this means is that SEVEN of the everyday players in this lineup (Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, Meyers, Pena, McCormick, and Diaz) are ALL among the least clutch 20% of all hitters in baseball with at least 50 PA. I don't even know what to say. There has never been a team that has a greater claim to be cursed than this one. They, as a unit, are maybe the greatest choke artists in baseball history, considering their talent level and salary. That tells me it's due to balance out. |
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Post by thomasj13 on May 30, 2024 18:12:33 GMT -6
So just to hurt us all some more, I just sorted the individual player leaderboards for Clutch. Among all 157 qualified batters, here are how our guys rank in Clutch. Jeremy Pena: -0.80 (151) Alex Bregman: -0.79 (149) Yordan Alvarez: -0.73 (145) Yainer Diaz: -0.46 (123) Jose Altuve: -0.38 (112) Kyle Tucker: +0.03 (76) If I set it to count all players with at least 50 plate appearances, there are now 394 players. Pena is 384 out of 394. Meyers shows up on the list as being better only than Pena, Bregman, and Yordan on our club. McCormick is tied with Yainer Diaz. What this means is that SEVEN of the everyday players in this lineup (Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, Meyers, Pena, McCormick, and Diaz) are ALL among the least clutch 20% of all hitters in baseball with at least 50 PA. I don't even know what to say. There has never been a team that has a greater claim to be cursed than this one. They, as a unit, are maybe the greatest choke artists in baseball history, considering their talent level and salary. That tells me it's due to balance out. Say Due one more time! |
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Post by Saint on May 30, 2024 18:23:06 GMT -6
That tells me it's due to balance out. Say Due one more time! If I say it enough I'll be right eventually! |
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Post by bearbryant on May 30, 2024 19:05:02 GMT -6
So just to hurt us all some more, I just sorted the individual player leaderboards for Clutch. Among all 157 qualified batters, here are how our guys rank in Clutch. Jeremy Pena: -0.80 (151) Alex Bregman: -0.79 (149) Yordan Alvarez: -0.73 (145) Yainer Diaz: -0.46 (123) Jose Altuve: -0.38 (112) Kyle Tucker: +0.03 (76) If I set it to count all players with at least 50 plate appearances, there are now 394 players. Pena is 384 out of 394. Meyers shows up on the list as being better only than Pena, Bregman, and Yordan on our club. McCormick is tied with Yainer Diaz. What this means is that SEVEN of the everyday players in this lineup (Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, Meyers, Pena, McCormick, and Diaz) are ALL among the least clutch 20% of all hitters in baseball with at least 50 PA. I don't even know what to say. There has never been a team that has a greater claim to be cursed than this one. They, as a unit, are maybe the greatest choke artists in baseball history, considering their talent level and salary. That tells me it's due to balance out.
It tells me the umpiring has been atrocious against us this season |
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Post by unionstation82 on May 30, 2024 19:31:41 GMT -6
That tells me it's due to balance out.
It tells me the umpiring has been atrocious against us this season Bro, the umps this series have been worse than our offense. |
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Post by bearbryant on May 30, 2024 19:36:44 GMT -6
It tells me the umpiring has been atrocious against us this season Bro, the umps this series have been worse than our offense. Pitchers can't be that successful inducing soft contact off this group of All-Stars in high-leverage at-bats unless we're getting more than our share of pitches off the plate getting called strikes. It doesn't make sense |
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Post by unionstation82 on May 30, 2024 19:54:30 GMT -6
Bro, the umps this series have been worse than our offense. Pitchers can't be that successful inducing soft contact off this group of All-Stars in high-leverage at-bats unless we're getting more than our share of pitches off the plate getting called strikes. It doesn't make sense It was like our guys were playing at Turner Field. The zone was inconsistent and atrocious. Verlander gave up a homer the other day because the umpire wasn’t giving him anything at the bottom of the zone, and JV isn’t much for pitching to the corners. |
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Post by bearbryant on May 30, 2024 20:15:56 GMT -6
Pitchers can't be that successful inducing soft contact off this group of All-Stars in high-leverage at-bats unless we're getting more than our share of pitches off the plate getting called strikes. It doesn't make sense It was like our guys were playing at Turner Field. The zone was inconsistent and atrocious. Verlander gave up a homer the other day because the umpire wasn’t giving him anything at the bottom of the zone, and JV isn’t much for pitching to the corners. I don't mean to keep saying Bagwell would be my choice if they're going to replace Espada, but his expertise on pitch selection when the umps are screwing our guys could be helpful here. He also has experience reminding guys that being down in the win column doesn't mean you quit on the season.
I'll admit though, what I want is for him to have a real job in the organization instead of whatever the hell he's doing now |
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Post by unionstation82 on May 30, 2024 20:47:52 GMT -6
It was like our guys were playing at Turner Field. The zone was inconsistent and atrocious. Verlander gave up a homer the other day because the umpire wasn’t giving him anything at the bottom of the zone, and JV isn’t much for pitching to the corners. I don't mean to keep saying Bagwell would be my choice if they're going to replace Espada, but his expertise on pitch selection when the umps are screwing our guys could be helpful here. He also has experience reminding guys that being down in the win column doesn't mean you quit on the season.
I'll admit though, what I want is for him to have a real job in the organization instead of whatever the hell he's doing now What he’s doing now is being Abreu’s masseur. |
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