The GIDP Enigma

[astrosdoug]

OK so we know that the Astros are hitting into double plays at a higher rate than in previous years. Lots of theories as to why, how, and what to do about it.

Here is a visual of where pitchers are pitching the Astros to generate most of those GIDPs:


baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=grounded%5C.%5C.into%5C.%5C.double%5C.%5C.play%7C&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2018%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=pz&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results_pitchHeatmap_team_HOU_

If that is too long of a link, try clicking here. 

That graphic combines pitches to LHB and RHB together. 

The pitches to RHB look like this and the pitches to LHB look like this.

It's interesting to play with the years in the search parameters to see how the Astros' GIDP tendencies have changed over time. 

Basically, the Astros' RHB are GIDP'ing on middle-away strikes, while the LHB are GIDP's on high-away strikes. 

Any of you former hitting coaches have ideas on what the batters could do differently when they there is a risk of GIDP and the batter identifies a pitch in these "danger zones"?

[astrosdoug]

For example, does it make sense to crowd the plate so that those pitches on the outside of the plate are easier to square up?

The Diamondbacks ate a good example of a team that is avoiding the GIDP this year (43 GIDPs compared to the Astros' MLB-leading 80). Their hitters are tending to lay off pitches at the edge of the plate, especially anything in the middle third and top third of the strike zone, when there is a risk of GIDP.

[marshall]

In analyzing GDP, you have to keep in mind GDP Opportunities. I'm sure we'd rather have more in absolute numbers simply because we have men on base far more often so the opportunity for the GDP is far greater.

Also, putting the ball in play rather than the SO increases GDP. The SO - Throw Out DP should be attributed to the baserunning and not the batting.

GDP should be broken down by hitting, baserunning and coaching decisions. Then it should be by percentages and not just numbers.

[astrosdoug]

By percentages,

* The MLB average is to GIDP in 11% of cases where it's possible to GIDP
* The Astros GIDP 12% of the time
* Top offensive teams like the Yankees only GIDP 8% of the time (in other words, it seems to be possible to reduce the GIDP, but possibly those strategies would also have harmful side-effects
* Cleveland only GIDPs 9% of the time
* KC Royals lead the majors by GIDPing in 14% of their chances to do so

The Astros lead MLB in GIDP chances at 647. The second-highest number belongs to Oakland at 576. To this extent, we can sympathize with the Astros for also leading MLB in the number of GIDPs at 83 (according to my last recollection anyway).

The league average is 551 GIDP chances. As Marshall mentions, it's mainly driven by OBP and to some extent the number of innings played.

The White Sox have the fewest GIDP chances at 473. Of course, this reflects the fact that they are a pretty poor offensive team and dont' get men to 1B as often as other teams do.

Overall, that small difference between GIDP'ing 12% of the time vs the league average of 11% isn't so problematic in my opinion. But the Yankees are suggesting that you can have a leading offense while also minimizing GIDPs. I'd like to know what their secrets/strategies are.

[astrosdoug]

I finally got to watch a taped version of that 1-0 loss to KCR the other day. That is a good example of a game where the Astros may well have won if they had just avoided one of the DPs they grounded into.

Also, I thought the Fielder's Choice call on Tyler White was bad... He didn't hit the ball hard, but it made Moustakas stumble, and that prevented him from throwing to first. I'd have called it an infield hit. Then again, I'm partial to the Astros and think Tyler White is a great dude. So I'm biased.

[unionstation82]

Jun 28, 2018 3:02:57 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

For example, does it make sense to crowd the plate so that those pitches on the outside of the plate are easier to square up?

The Diamondbacks ate a good example of a team that is avoiding the GIDP this year (43 GIDPs compared to the Astros' MLB-leading 80). Their hitters are tending to lay off pitches at the edge of the plate, especially anything in the middle third and top third of the strike zone, when there is a risk of GIDP.

It’s frustrating when Altuve is so far off the plate and sometimes flails at the down and out slider in which he has a 0% chance of making contact.

[Saint]

Jun 28, 2018 10:00:55 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

Jun 28, 2018 3:02:57 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

For example, does it make sense to crowd the plate so that those pitches on the outside of the plate are easier to square up?

The Diamondbacks ate a good example of a team that is avoiding the GIDP this year (43 GIDPs compared to the Astros' MLB-leading 80). Their hitters are tending to lay off pitches at the edge of the plate, especially anything in the middle third and top third of the strike zone, when there is a risk of GIDP.

It’s frustrating when Altuve is so far off the plate and sometimes flails at the down and out slider in which he has a 0% chance of making contact.

Altuve shouldn't mess with his approach. Nothing to complain about offensively with a .900 OPS and on pace for 20+ SB. If it works it works.

[marshall]

Jun 28, 2018 8:57:07 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

By percentages,

* The MLB average is to GIDP in 11% of cases where it's possible to GIDP
* The Astros GIDP 12% of the time
* Top offensive teams like the Yankees only GIDP 8% of the time (in other words, it seems to be possible to reduce the GIDP, but possibly those strategies would also have harmful side-effects
* Cleveland only GIDPs 9% of the time
* KC Royals lead the majors by GIDPing in 14% of their chances to do so

The Astros lead MLB in GIDP chances at 647. The second-highest number belongs to Oakland at 576. To this extent, we can sympathize with the Astros for also leading MLB in the number of GIDPs at 83 (according to my last recollection anyway).

The league average is 551 GIDP chances. As Marshall mentions, it's mainly driven by OBP and to some extent the number of innings played.

The White Sox have the fewest GIDP chances at 473. Of course, this reflects the fact that they are a pretty poor offensive team and dont' get men to 1B as often as other teams do.

Overall, that small difference between GIDP'ing 12% of the time vs the league average of 11% isn't so problematic in my opinion. But the Yankees are suggesting that you can have a leading offense while also minimizing GIDPs. I'd like to know what their secrets/strategies are.

NYY Strategy is to swing for the fences and either strike out or hit a bomb. But does that way of reducing GDPs result in more runs?

[unionstation82]

Jun 28, 2018 10:24:30 GMT -6 Saint said:

Jun 28, 2018 10:00:55 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

It’s frustrating when Altuve is so far off the plate and sometimes flails at the down and out slider in which he has a 0% chance of making contact.

Altuve shouldn't mess with his approach. Nothing to complain about offensively with a .900 OPS and on pace for 20+ SB. If it works it works.

Oh, I totally agree. It’s just doing that can make him look so silly.

[marshall]

I just ran some numbers on Houston and New York

Houston New York
PA 3161 3023
R 428 398
R/PA .135 .132
SO 641 705
SO/PA .203 .233
GDP 80 47
GDP/PA .025 .016

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2018 8:57:07 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

The White Sox have the fewest GIDP chances at 473. Of course, this reflects the fact that they are a pretty poor offensive team and dont' get men to 1B as often as other teams do.

Wow, they need a better sex education program

[astrosdoug]

Jun 28, 2018 14:31:11 GMT -6 @jayfree5 said:

Jun 28, 2018 8:57:07 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

The White Sox have the fewest GIDP chances at 473. Of course, this reflects the fact that they are a pretty poor offensive team and dont' get men to 1B as often as other teams do.

Wow, they need a better sex education program

Ruth Bader Ginsburg told them to run straight to second base but the umpire says it's against the rules. 

[marshall]

Jun 28, 2018 20:23:40 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

Jun 28, 2018 14:31:11 GMT -6 @jayfree5 said:

Wow, they need a better sex education program

Ruth Bader Ginsburg told them to run straight to second base but the umpire says it's against the rules. 

But Ruth then said she wanted him to do it anyway and the rules live and breath to reflect her own ideas.

[astrosdoug]

We need to make sure Manfred and Ginsburg don't get in the same room together.