|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 5, 2018 21:02:54 GMT -6
So today Corey Knebel from the Brewers collapsed on the mound grabbing his hamstring. Couldn't put weight on it as he was helped off the field. Looked bad; hope it isn't actually so serious.
When I think back to last season's top closers, it seems most of them are off to a rough start this year. Brad Hand. Felipe Rivero. Kenley Jansen. Ken Giles. I'm sure there are more.
No doubt there will be some new guys pop up in the Top Closers List in the first half of this season who maybe didn't have great years last year. For example, the Padres are coming to town and it's not Hand I'd be worried about; it's Craig Stammen.
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 5, 2018 21:52:09 GMT -6
Here are the very early returns on which relievers *might* be starting especially good seasons. Most relievers have just 2 or 3 innings of work in so ERA is almost meaningless but FIP gives us a little better idea of who is pitching well. For the top 15, most of these early FIPs are actually negative, which generally means the pitcher has given up no or very few walks/hits. So by FIP, the Top 15 include:
1. Adam Ottavino (COL) -1.37
2. Kelvin Herrera (KCR) -1.32
3. Chad Green (NYY) -1.24
4. Corey Knebel (MIL) -1.04 *hamstring injury
5. Seth Lugo (NYM) -1.04
6. Aroldis Chapman (NYY) -1.04
7. Robert Gsellman (NYM) -.0.86
8. Josh Hader (MIL) -0.70
9. Edwin Diaz (SEA) -0.37
10. Hector Rondon (HOU) -0.37
11. Darren O'Day (BAL) -0.04
12. Cory Gearrin (SFG) -0.04
13. Shawn Kelley (WSN) -0.04
14. Tony Watson (SFG) -0.04
15. Brad Peacock (HOU) +0.16
Those fellas, at least, are worth watching in the coming weeks to see if they can keep up the good work. Ottavino, for example, would be a surprise if he can finish among the Top 10 relievers this year, but he did have very good seasons in 2013 and 2016 so who knows, this could be his year. Herrera, Lugo, and Gsellman would also be interesting/unexpected guys to see have stellar seasons. Astros are doing well to have 2 pitchers in the Top 15 in the early going. Will Harris comes in at #23.
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 5, 2018 22:00:21 GMT -6
With the horrible season the Royals are likely to have, they may well be willing to trade Herrera as a rental by July. If the Astros find themselves in need of a closer, Herrera brings a career 2.84 ERA and a 98mph fastball. His slider is looking much improved this year too. Herrera's contract is for around $8 million but for a contender that is not an obstacle. He also ranks higher on Fangraphs' "Clutch" scale, with a score of +0.09 (compare to Giles' -0.36).
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 6, 2018 8:18:40 GMT -6
For those who like to see clean innings from their team's relievers, imagine how Colorado fans must be enthused by the way Adam Ottavino has started his season:
Through 5 innings pitched, he's given up only one hit (a single) and a walk. No HRs, no wild pitches, no hit batsmen, no balks... If he keeps that up for another 7 innings or so, I could see him being named NL Reliever of the Month.
If Jansen really does fall from grace, who knows, Ottavino or some other dark horse like Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman could take his place.
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 6, 2018 8:23:18 GMT -6
Ottavino has almost entirely abandoned his fastball in favor of his sinker and cutter. He already had a pretty good slider, which he still throws half the time. But by going to more breaking pitches, he is getting like 30% more swings and misses than he did last year.
|
|
|
|
Post by Saint on Apr 6, 2018 10:24:10 GMT -6
So today Corey Knebel from the Brewers collapsed on the mound grabbing his hamstring. Couldn't put weight on it as he was helped off the field. Looked bad; hope it isn't actually so serious. When I think back to last season's top closers, it seems most of them are off to a rough start this year. Brad Hand. Felipe Rivero. Kenley Jansen. Ken Giles. I'm sure there are more. No doubt there will be some new guys pop up in the Top Closers List in the first half of this season who maybe didn't have great years last year. For example, the Padres are coming to town and it's not Hand I'd be worried about; it's Craig Stammen. It's hard to say Giles is off to a rough start when he's only pitched in two non-save situations and has given up one run.... After only one week, it's too early to worry (or get overly excited) about any individual player's performance unless it appears injury-related. |
|
|
|
Post by bearbryant on Apr 6, 2018 13:33:06 GMT -6
I'm trying to remember if they said Jansen lost some zip on his fastball, but maybe that was someone else
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 6, 2018 15:39:55 GMT -6
I'm trying to remember if they said Jansen lost some zip on his fastball, but maybe that was someone else
His velocity was down about 5mph compared to last year. Definitely a bad sign as far as his arm health goes. |
|
|
|
Post by abregmanfan on Jul 12, 2018 11:11:41 GMT -6
Bump
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Jul 12, 2018 11:18:39 GMT -6
I'd be interested to compare that list of relievers who were looking good out of the gate (as of April 6 or so) to the leaderboards now to see who among them is still pitching well.
Ottavino and Herrera certainly are.
|
|
