Post by astrosdoug on Apr 25, 2019 9:23:30 GMT -6
Today I ventured a few simple predictions for the 2019 Astros offense in a game day thread. Since that stuff gets buried pretty easily, I'm going to post that again here. It will be fun to return to this post at the end of the year to see how close these numbers were to the actual team offensive production.
"Just thinking a bit about the implications of getting that team BABIP up a couple of percentage points...
Last season, the Astros had 1390 total hits based on a team BABIP of .289. Just doing a quick and not entirely precise calculation here, if the Astros can maintain their team BABIP at the current rate of .310 for the whole 2019 season (and this seems plausible given that the higher BABIP this year is due more to new hitting approaches than simple luck), then the Astros ought to end up with around 1485 total hits in 2019.
By comparison, last year's champion BoSox team got 1509 hits, leading to 876 runs. The 2017 champion Astros score 896 total runs.
If we want to forecast the 2019 Astros total run production, it would be approx. 1485 hits / 1.72 hits/run = 863 runs or 5.33 runs per game.
This is just to say that with the new hitting approaches from Reddick, Yuli, White, and others, what we are seeing is truly a championship-caliber offense, one that rivals that of the 2018 BoSox and the 2017 Astros."
"Just thinking a bit about the implications of getting that team BABIP up a couple of percentage points...
Last season, the Astros had 1390 total hits based on a team BABIP of .289. Just doing a quick and not entirely precise calculation here, if the Astros can maintain their team BABIP at the current rate of .310 for the whole 2019 season (and this seems plausible given that the higher BABIP this year is due more to new hitting approaches than simple luck), then the Astros ought to end up with around 1485 total hits in 2019.
By comparison, last year's champion BoSox team got 1509 hits, leading to 876 runs. The 2017 champion Astros score 896 total runs.
If we want to forecast the 2019 Astros total run production, it would be approx. 1485 hits / 1.72 hits/run = 863 runs or 5.33 runs per game.
This is just to say that with the new hitting approaches from Reddick, Yuli, White, and others, what we are seeing is truly a championship-caliber offense, one that rivals that of the 2018 BoSox and the 2017 Astros."
