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Post by blcoach8 on Sept 9, 2021 19:30:49 GMT -6
This is another reason why people hate analytics. When you watch this guy pitch, he continually struggles in the 5th or 6th innings and can’t get you that quality start metric. That’s what everyone not named Jake Odorizzi has noticed when he pitches. But even by normal basic stats he was an average at worst pitcher until his health issues last year. He's not an ace and never will be, but he's not as bad as people are thinking. He's a reasonable #3-4 starter in a good-not-elite rotation. We're not going to have aces every start. If there are other options.....and, we have one when Greinke returns....we don't have to rely on Odorizzi to give us starts. Put him in long relief. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Sept 9, 2021 19:41:15 GMT -6
This is another reason why people hate analytics. When you watch this guy pitch, he continually struggles in the 5th or 6th innings and can’t get you that quality start metric. That’s what everyone not named Jake Odorizzi has noticed when he pitches. But even by normal basic stats he was an average at worst pitcher until his health issues last year. He's not an ace and never will be, but he's not as bad as people are thinking. He's a reasonable #3-4 starter in a good-not-elite rotation. We're not going to have aces every start. No one’s asking him to be an ace. They just want him to get some quality starts. His stats give us that expectation. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Sept 9, 2021 19:46:42 GMT -6
But even by normal basic stats he was an average at worst pitcher until his health issues last year. He's not an ace and never will be, but he's not as bad as people are thinking. He's a reasonable #3-4 starter in a good-not-elite rotation. We're not going to have aces every start. No one’s asking him to be an ace. They just want him to get some quality starts. His stats give us that expectation. I want to read that he's the starting pitcher and not have my ass all puckered because i just know he's likely going to throw up another loss for the team. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Sept 9, 2021 19:51:47 GMT -6
But even by normal basic stats he was an average at worst pitcher until his health issues last year. He's not an ace and never will be, but he's not as bad as people are thinking. He's a reasonable #3-4 starter in a good-not-elite rotation. We're not going to have aces every start. No one’s asking him to be an ace. They just want him to get some quality starts. His stats give us that expectation. His stats this season show he is a five inning pitcher.....period. |
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Post by m240 on Sept 9, 2021 20:25:07 GMT -6
Graveman reinvented himself as a solid late inning guy. Why not Odorizzi. He is a professional, tell him what we are doing and why and then tell him to go earn his keep.
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Post by Ashitaka on Sept 9, 2021 20:34:18 GMT -6
Odorizzi has been slightly-above-average. But the problem is the Astros have to baby him and pull him early to get that result from him. There's a value difference between slightly-better-than-average through 4-5 innings and slightly-better-than-average through 6-7 innings.
WAR helps here, because it's based also on playing time. In 20 starts, Odorizzi has been worth just 0.7 WAR. Even if you extrapolate him out to 30 starts, he's still below the 2.0 WAR that is typical of the average regular player.
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Post by blcoach8 on Sept 9, 2021 22:05:36 GMT -6
Graveman reinvented himself as a solid late inning guy. Why not Odorizzi. He is a professional, tell him what we are doing and why and then tell him to go earn his keep. I haven't seen anything from him that makes me think he could be a solid late inning guy. He isn't overpowering, and, is also a fly ball pitcher. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Sept 10, 2021 6:56:56 GMT -6
To his credit he apologized in the Chron today. But my point remains: he should not have put himself in a position to need an apology to cover for running off at the mouth. Professionals don't air dirty laundry in public. That shit will get you terminated really quickly in the 9-5 world. QFT |
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Post by Saint on Sept 10, 2021 9:58:38 GMT -6
This is just one more situation that shows you can find a "statistic" to prove that one end of a turd is cleaner than the other end. Saint is famous for using this tactic to make the worst players look like they actually have provided good performance. "Yeah, his BA/ERA/Etc is horrible and he's caused us to lose 57 games, but his SKHJKDD.3 is great and proves his All Star talent!" I believe on the past playing a role in determining whether to give the player a chance. But, once he shows he can no longer perform up to what he has done in the past, it's time to forget it and move on. Odorizzi making an All Star team when he was with the Twins doesn't help him be effective for us. What does his previous team matter? Past performance is past performance unless it was in the minor leagues. |
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Post by Saint on Sept 10, 2021 10:00:42 GMT -6
No one’s asking him to be an ace. They just want him to get some quality starts. His stats give us that expectation. I want to read that he's the starting pitcher and not have my ass all puckered because i just know he's likely going to throw up another loss for the team. Well for what it's worth, we've won more games than we've lost when he starts. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Sept 10, 2021 11:05:45 GMT -6
I want to read that he's the starting pitcher and not have my ass all puckered because i just know he's likely going to throw up another loss for the team. Well for what it's worth, we've won more games than we've lost when he starts. In how many of those wins did he make a positive contribution? |
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Post by Saint on Sept 10, 2021 11:21:34 GMT -6
Well for what it's worth, we've won more games than we've lost when he starts. In how many of those wins did he make a positive contribution? I guess that depends on your definition of positive. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Sept 10, 2021 11:25:07 GMT -6
In how many of those wins did he make a positive contribution? I guess that depends on your definition of positive. If he left with us trailing and we came back to win, we overcame his performance. If he left with the score tied or with us leading, he gave us a decent chance of winning. But, I can't consider a guy who consistently only lasts 5 innings or around 80 pitches to be a reliable starter. |
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Post by Saint on Sept 10, 2021 12:31:46 GMT -6
I guess that depends on your definition of positive. If he left with us trailing and we came back to win, we overcame his performance. If he left with the score tied or with us leading, he gave us a decent chance of winning. But, I can't consider a guy who consistently only lasts 5 innings or around 80 pitches to be a reliable starter. So leaving after giving up one or two runs in 4-5 innings is not a positive appearance if we weren't tied or winning? |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Sept 10, 2021 12:54:37 GMT -6
Well for what it's worth, we've won more games than we've lost when he starts. In how many of those wins did he make a positive contribution? And in how many of them did he have to be pulled in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th inning? |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Sept 10, 2021 12:56:01 GMT -6
I believe on the past playing a role in determining whether to give the player a chance. But, once he shows he can no longer perform up to what he has done in the past, it's time to forget it and move on. Odorizzi making an All Star team when he was with the Twins doesn't help him be effective for us. What does his previous team matter? Past performance is past performance unless it was in the minor leagues. Point is, past performance doesn't have any affect on his current, shitty performance. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Sept 10, 2021 12:57:19 GMT -6
If he left with us trailing and we came back to win, we overcame his performance. If he left with the score tied or with us leading, he gave us a decent chance of winning. But, I can't consider a guy who consistently only lasts 5 innings or around 80 pitches to be a reliable starter. So leaving after giving up one or two runs in 4-5 innings is not a positive appearance if we weren't tied or winning? What's the ERA for 1-2 runs over 4-5 innings? |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Sept 10, 2021 12:59:58 GMT -6
Well for what it's worth, we've won more games than we've lost when he starts. I hesitate to consider a pitchers W-L record or the team W-L when a particular pitcher starts the game. That can be highly affected by the offense. For instance, the Astros (and Jake-O) took a loss on July 9. Odo pitched 6 innings and gave up only two runs. A good day for the starter, for sure. But the offense scored zero runs. On the other side, the Astros won on Apr 24 by a score of 16-2. Jake started but only faced one batter (a line out to RF). He really wasn't a factor in that game. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Sept 10, 2021 13:05:46 GMT -6
What's the ERA for 1-2 runs over 4-5 innings? It varies depending on the specific number of runs and innings. 1 run over 5 full innings is very good. ERA 1.80 2 runs over 4 full innings is mediocre. ERA 4.50 |
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Post by blcoach8 on Sept 10, 2021 13:45:53 GMT -6
If he left with us trailing and we came back to win, we overcame his performance. If he left with the score tied or with us leading, he gave us a decent chance of winning. But, I can't consider a guy who consistently only lasts 5 innings or around 80 pitches to be a reliable starter. So leaving after giving up one or two runs in 4-5 innings is not a positive appearance if we weren't tied or winning? Lots of things should be taken into consideration in determining what kind of performance he had. Here are his game by game numbers for this season. Pay particular attention to the number of pitches thrown. www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/31654/jake-odorizziThese numbers should be self explanatory as to why Dusty felt the need to pull him from Tuesday's start after five innings. He regularly has to use more than 80 pitches just to get through five innings. In many of those innings he allowed more than one hitter to reach base per inning. The fact that he cannot make it past five innings puts a strain on the bullpen and causes relievers to have to work more innings than they should. When he has consistently shown that he can't be counted on to face the opposing lineup more than twice before hitting a wall, he should expect to be pulled after five. |
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Post by Saint on Sept 10, 2021 14:43:24 GMT -6
Well for what it's worth, we've won more games than we've lost when he starts. I hesitate to consider a pitchers W-L record or the team W-L when a particular pitcher starts the game. That can be highly affected by the offense. For instance, the Astros (and Jake-O) took a loss on July 9. Odo pitched 6 innings and gave up only two runs. A good day for the starter, for sure. But the offense scored zero runs. On the other side, the Astros won on Apr 24 by a score of 16-2. Jake started but only faced one batter (a line out to RF). He really wasn't a factor in that game. I know. My point was how even in his starts (that have often been less than desirable) we've come out on top more often than not to this point. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Sept 10, 2021 14:45:59 GMT -6
I hesitate to consider a pitchers W-L record or the team W-L when a particular pitcher starts the game. That can be highly affected by the offense. For instance, the Astros (and Jake-O) took a loss on July 9. Odo pitched 6 innings and gave up only two runs. A good day for the starter, for sure. But the offense scored zero runs. On the other side, the Astros won on Apr 24 by a score of 16-2. Jake started but only faced one batter (a line out to RF). He really wasn't a factor in that game. I know. My point was how even in his starts (that have often been less than desirable) we've come out on top more often than not to this point. That's because we have "the best offense in baseball". |
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Post by Saint on Sept 10, 2021 14:47:44 GMT -6
So leaving after giving up one or two runs in 4-5 innings is not a positive appearance if we weren't tied or winning? What's the ERA for 1-2 runs over 4-5 innings? 1 run over 5 full innings is very good. ERA 1.80 2 runs over 4 full innings is mediocre. ERA 4.50 So if his 4.28 ERA falls right between mediocre and very good, why are people so salty about his performance? The reason to be salty would be the lack of not pitching deeper into games, not his level of performance in what he HAS done. And if he isn't given the chance to ever pitch deeper into any games, despite a lead and a low pitch count, it's hard to be mad at him. Which takes me back to my original point: I think we should try and give him a slightly longer leash in some of these starts to see if we can get more value out of him. |
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Post by Saint on Sept 10, 2021 14:50:56 GMT -6
I know. My point was how even in his starts (that have often been less than desirable) we've come out on top more often than not to this point. That's because we have "the best offense in baseball". So why does your "ass get puckered" when you see he's the starting pitcher, if we only let him pitch half of a game with a great offense behind him, and he's only averaging 1-2 runs per start in 4-5 innings of work? |
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Post by blcoach8 on Sept 10, 2021 15:11:42 GMT -6
That's because we have "the best offense in baseball". So why does your "ass get puckered" when you see he's the starting pitcher, if we only let him pitch half of a game with a great offense behind him, and he's only averaging 1-2 runs per start in 4-5 innings of work? Sometimes this great offense gets my ass puckered. LMAO. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Sept 10, 2021 16:05:49 GMT -6
1 run over 5 full innings is very good. ERA 1.80 2 runs over 4 full innings is mediocre. ERA 4.50 So if his 4.28 ERA falls right between mediocre and very good, I would not say it 'falls right between'. More like slightly to the good side of mediocre why are people so salty about his performance? You'd have to ask the salty ones. But I reckon it might be his tendency to put up bad numbers in the sixth. I think we should try and give him a slightly longer leash in some of these starts to see if we can get more value out of him. I don't think 'we' have a say in the matter. But I don't disagree that giving him a one-batter-at-a-time chance in the sixth, until he fails to get an out, is a reasonable idea. He gave up 2 runs (both in the fifth) in five innings on Tuesday. But he only threw 66 pitches. There may have been another good inning (or even two) left in the tank. Or maybe he was done. Hard to say. Even if you think he has a legit gripe, do you support him airing in in the press? Or do you agree with talshill and I in saying that part was bullshit/. |
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Post by Saint on Sept 10, 2021 16:12:24 GMT -6
1 run over 5 full innings is very good. ERA 1.80 2 runs over 4 full innings is mediocre. ERA 4.50 So if his 4.28 ERA falls right between mediocre and very good, I would not say it 'falls right between'. More like slightly to the good side of mediocre why are people so salty about his performance? You'd have to ask the salty ones. But I reckon it might be his tendency to put up bad numbers in the sixth. I think we should try and give him a slightly longer leash in some of these starts to see if we can get more value out of him. I don't think 'we' have a say in the matter. But I don't disagree that giving him a one-batter-at-a-time chance in the sixth, until he fails to get an out, is a reasonable idea. He gave up 2 runs (both in the fifth) in five innings on Tuesday. But he only threw 66 pitches. There may have been another good inning (or even two) left in the tank. Or maybe he was done. Hard to say. Even if you think he has a legit gripe, do you support him airing in in the press? Or do you agree with talshill and I in saying that part was bullshit/. The way you break things down takes up too much space on my screen! No, I absolutely can't stand people that air shit out like that in public. But, I don't think he's completely wrong either. I was amazed we took him out after only 66 pitches and didn't even give him a chance to start the 6th inning. Especially when our bullpen has been shown to be less effective in longer outings like that. Maybe he would have stunk it up and it wouldn't have mattered, but I can't believe we would be fine paying him all that money to never let him go past 5 innings as a starting pitcher even in ideal situations. If they don't feel he can do more than that, he needs to be in the bullpen as a 2-3 inning guy. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Sept 10, 2021 16:29:43 GMT -6
That's because we have "the best offense in baseball". So why does your "ass get puckered" when you see he's the starting pitcher, if we only let him pitch half of a game with a great offense behind him, and he's only averaging 1-2 runs per start in 4-5 innings of work? Because our offense should not have to score 8 runs to overcome our starting pitcher. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Sept 10, 2021 16:35:18 GMT -6
The way you break things down takes up too much space on my screen! ***** get a bigger screen. lol No, I absolutely can't stand people that air shit out like that in public. Okay then. I was amazed we took him out after only 66 pitches and didn't even give him a chance to start the 6th inning. I was not amazed. Six days prior he gave up zero runs in five innings (79 pitches), then gave up a single and a walk (one batter too many imho) to start the sixth before he got the hook and Phil Maton (who Strom hasn't fixed yet) entered the game and the run attributable to Odo scored. AL managers like to start a reliever in the beginning of an inning unless it's necessary. Maybe Dusty didn't want to find out if it would have been necessary, in successive starts by Jake? idk |
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Post by blcoach8 on Sept 10, 2021 16:39:20 GMT -6
I would not say it 'falls right between'. More like slightly to the good side of mediocre You'd have to ask the salty ones. But I reckon it might be his tendency to put up bad numbers in the sixth. I don't think 'we' have a say in the matter. But I don't disagree that giving him a one-batter-at-a-time chance in the sixth, until he fails to get an out, is a reasonable idea. He gave up 2 runs (both in the fifth) in five innings on Tuesday. But he only threw 66 pitches. There may have been another good inning (or even two) left in the tank. Or maybe he was done. Hard to say. Even if you think he has a legit gripe, do you support him airing in in the press? Or do you agree with talshill and I in saying that part was bullshit/. The way you break things down takes up too much space on my screen! No, I absolutely can't stand people that air shit out like that in public. But, I don't think he's completely wrong either. I was amazed we took him out after only 66 pitches and didn't even give him a chance to start the 6th inning. Especially when our bullpen has been shown to be less effective in longer outings like that. Maybe he would have stunk it up and it wouldn't have mattered, but I can't believe we would be fine paying him all that money to never let him go past 5 innings as a starting pitcher even in ideal situations. If they don't feel he can do more than that, he needs to be in the bullpen as a 2-3 inning guy. I seem to recall a game or two when he had trouble in the 5th, but, got out of it. Then, Dusty sent him back out for the 6th and he immediately got into more trouble. had to be relieved, and the runners he left ended up scoring. And, they probably scored because Dusty brought Javier or Raley in to relieve him. |
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