GDT: Red Sox vs. Astros, 6/1/2018

[astrosdoug]

Sale vs. Cole

On paper, this looks to be a very good pitching matchup. 

Sale has thrown quality starts in 8 of his 12 appearances this year. However, he got hit hard by Atlanta in his most recent start and had to exit after 4.1 innings. The play by play of that game is an interesting read

www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201805270.shtml

Basically, a key for Atlanta was to get a leadoff walk in both the innings they scored off Sale. In spite of struggling, Sale still managed to K 8 batters or about 2 per inning. 

Davis, Bregman, Correa, and Kemp are the Astros' walk leaders this season, so perhaps one of them will spark something big against Sale today.

[marshall]

Jun 1, 2018 5:05:59 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

Sale vs. Cole

On paper, this looks to be a very good pitching matchup. 

Sale has thrown quality starts in 8 of his 12 appearances this year. However, he got hit hard by Atlanta in his most recent start and had to exit after 4.1 innings. The play by play of that game is an interesting read

www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201805270.shtml

Basically, a key for Atlanta was to get a leadoff walk in both the innings they scored off Sale. In spite of struggling, Sale still managed to K 8 batters or about 2 per inning. 

Davis, Bregman, Correa, and Kemp are the Astros' walk leaders this season, so perhaps one of them will spark something big against Sale today.

Is it time to drop Springer down in the order? His OBP has only been .212 over the last week.

[astrosdoug]

Well, the Indians came back to beat the Twins 9-8.

And the Cards scored 5 runs in the 9th to beat the Pirates.

Looks like all the crappy things that happened to the Astros recently are happening to other clubs, too.

[astrosdoug]

Jun 1, 2018 6:11:32 GMT -6 marshall said:

Jun 1, 2018 5:05:59 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

Sale vs. Cole

On paper, this looks to be a very good pitching matchup. 

Sale has thrown quality starts in 8 of his 12 appearances this year. However, he got hit hard by Atlanta in his most recent start and had to exit after 4.1 innings. The play by play of that game is an interesting read

www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201805270.shtml

Basically, a key for Atlanta was to get a leadoff walk in both the innings they scored off Sale. In spite of struggling, Sale still managed to K 8 batters or about 2 per inning. 

Davis, Bregman, Correa, and Kemp are the Astros' walk leaders this season, so perhaps one of them will spark something big against Sale today.

Is it time to drop Springer down in the order? His OBP has only been .212 over the last week.

It's a question that comes up from time to time, as Springer doesn't fit the traditional specs of a leadoff hitter. And yet, the team has won so many games with him leading off, that it seems Hinch is reluctant to change.

Kemp is more the prototypical leadoff hitter in my opinion, and I was glad to see him leading off the other day when Springer was given a scheduled day off.

I wouldn't rush to make a change after a week of poor hitting by Springer, but if it lasts a month then I would. 

I think in recent years, managers have been more apt to choose the leadoff hitter based on OPS more so than OBP. Simply because the leadoff hitter will always get the most PAs, and if he is a high OPS guy, then you get more net offense over the course of a season. Kemp is more of an Aoki-type hitter in that he won't strike out and he will get on base a lot, but his OPS will tend to be no higher than .750 due to the lack of power.

[marshall]

I'm confused this morning. Just ignore what I said if you read it before I caught it. I was talking about Springer and remembering Correa. But just this post, not the one above.

[marshall]

I hope we find a way to get Gattis and Stassi in the lineup for the mext three days. They kill lefties.

BTW, you'd think a predominantly Right Handed lineup would have success against lefties. I wonder if the team will regress to the mean and have success for a while?

[blcoach8]

Jun 1, 2018 7:15:19 GMT -6 marshall said:

I hope we find a way to get Gattis and Stassi in the lineup for the mext three days. They kill lefties.

BTW, you'd think a predominantly Right Handed lineup would have success against lefties. I wonder if the team will regress to the mean and have success for a while?

Not having both Stassi and Gattis in the lineup against Sale and Price would be ridiculous.  BENCH MARWIN GONZALEZ.   

[Deleted]

We had some success last year against Sale in the postseason. I feel more comfortable getting to Sale then Price tomorrow. We always struggle against Price.

[Saint]

Gattis should DH and Stassi should catch the next 3 games, period. (Hitting 5th and 6th, respectively.)

[Saint]

36-22. 1 Game up in the division over Seattle. 3.5 Games behind Boston for the league lead. 1st in run differential at +125.

Top-5 WAR players:

1. Verlander
2. Altuve
3. Cole
4. Correa
5. Springer

[Saint]

I'd like to see this lineup today:

Springer RF
Bregman 3B
Altuve 2B
Correa SS
Gattis DH
Stassi C
Davis LF
Gurriel 1B
Kemp CF

Right now that is the best offensive team we can put out there, imo. Especially against lefties. They're approach should be to take until they get a strike every AB unless RISP.

[astrosdoug]

Jun 1, 2018 9:46:05 GMT -6 Saint said:

36-22. 1 Game up in the division over Seattle. 3.5 Games behind Boston for the league lead. 1st in run differential at +125.

Top-5 WAR players:

1. Verlander
2. Altuve
3. Cole
4. Correa
5. Springer

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the players most hurting the Astros' chances of winning (as measured by WPA - Win Probability Added) are:

Yuli -0.9
Jake -0.7
Marwin -0.5

This is the problematic trio that has to be dealt with currently. 

[Saint]

Jun 1, 2018 9:52:37 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

Jun 1, 2018 9:46:05 GMT -6 Saint said:

36-22. 1 Game up in the division over Seattle. 3.5 Games behind Boston for the league lead. 1st in run differential at +125.

Top-5 WAR players:

1. Verlander
2. Altuve
3. Cole
4. Correa
5. Springer

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the players most hurting the Astros' chances of winning (as measured by WPA - Win Probability Added) are:

Yuli -0.9
Jake -0.7
Marwin -0.5

This is the problematic trio that has to be dealt with currently. 

The solution for Jake and Marwin is easy.  Gurriel though, I feel like you have to keep playing him a good portion to get him back up to where we want.  Unless we trade for a 1B or LFer and have the new guy or Davis play more 1B.

[ɮօʀȶǟʐ]

I think yuli needs more dl time for the hand. They rushed him back way too quickly.

[Saint]

I guess it comes down to:

Player A: Can be counted on to hit .270-.300 with few walks and limited power.

or

Player B: Potentially more production but hasn't shown it consistently at MLB level.

[bearbryant]

going by Davis' game log Hinch does not like starting him in LF

[paastrosfan]

Jun 1, 2018 6:50:32 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

Well, the Indians came back to beat the Twins 9-8.

And the Cards scored 5 runs in the 9th to beat the Pirates.

Looks like all the crappy things that happened to the Astros recently are happening to other clubs, too.

Doug on our discussion last night on Sipp made me today go back an look at his stats. There is no question that he is the 25th man on the roster, and Hinch tries to look at him for low leverage situations. For the month of May he hit Maytag territory for a total of five innings. I will admit I am not the stat nut now like Ash was, I was when I was younger, but look at those inning where he was used in high leverage situations, out of the last four situations he allowed hits in three games. From memory that is what stuck out.

m.mlb.com/player/448609/tony-sipp?year=2018&stats=gamelogs-r-pitching-mlb

[blcoach8]

Jun 1, 2018 10:06:15 GMT -6 ɮօʀȶǟʐ said:

I think yuli needs more dl time for the hand. They rushed him back way too quickly.

From what I am seeing, I agree with you.

[Saint]

Benintendi
Bogaerts
Moreland
Martinez
Devers
Nunez
Holt
Leon
Bradley

vs.

Springer
Bregman
Altuve
Correa
Gurriel
Gattis
Stassi
Davis
Marisnick

Other than Marisnick instead of Kemp this is a good lineup with what we have. No Mookie or Pedroia again today so hopefully Cole can take advantage.

[Saint]

Altuve has lit Sale up for his career (.389 AVG) but nobody else has done much against him. Meanwhile, all limited appearances, but Boston has hit well against Cole.

[bannedfan]

Let’s get a winning streak going!

[bearbryant]

That was a really good at-bat for downtown Springer

[bearbryant]

Bregs

[olpapa]

Nice start.

[bearbryant]

none of those were in the zone

[ɮօʀȶǟʐ]

Would you look at that?

[bearbryant]

CC was so lucky there

[bearbryant]

muffed 3rd strike + error

[olpapa]

Now that is the kind of thing that happens when it is just meant to be that you win. Correa swings and misses by a foot on strike three and scores the runner from second.

[bearbryant]

more fortunate luck !