GDT: Royals vs Astros 6/22/2018

[ɮօʀȶǟʐ]

[ɮօʀȶǟʐ]

Keuchel staying the course through struggles
atmlb.com/2turpik via @mlb

HOUSTON -- Dallas Keuchel is asked about keeping his sanity as he deals with a lack of success when, in large part, he's doing the things he's supposed to do.

"I play a lot of video games," he said. "Kind of de-stress myself."

He's not joking. Fortnite for a thousand, Alex. As Keuchel prepared for a Friday start against the Royals at Minute Maid Park, the Astros left-hander reflected on a stretch in which he may be one of baseball's unluckiest pitchers.

Yes, he has lacked some of the pinpoint control and crispness of, say, his 2015 Cy Young season. But his 4-8 record and 4.15 ERA do not completely reflect a 4-8 performance.

Let's let him talk it out.

"When you break it down, you don't want to jump to any conclusions," he said. "Just kind of cycling back through in your mind the game, different at-bats, different pitches. You remember the hard-hit ones, the ones you're supposed to give up.

"One person saying one thing, one person saying another thing. You know what you were doing was the right thing, the right pitches. It just didn't go your way. It's frustrating for sure, but you've just got to move on."

He hopes he hit rock bottom June 10 in Arlington when he allowed 13 hits and five earned runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Rangers. Here's what made it so bizarre: Of the 13 hits, just three of them qualified as "hard hit," according to Statcast™.

More from Statcast™: Keuchel's hard-hit rate in the game was just 17.4 percent -- four of 23 batted balls were hit 95+ mph. That was his lowest rate of the season and the 11th-lowest of any pitcher this season in a game with at least 20 total batted balls.

The Rangers batted .520 (13-for-25) against Keuchel that day. However, based on launch angle and contact, Statcast™ pegged his expected batting average at .280.

That 240-point gap is the largest of the season out of close to 1,700 pitcher starts with at least 20 batters faced.

"Yeah, I counted three hard-hit balls," Keuchel said. "I'm sitting there wondering even more what I could have done to combat some of the shift hits, some of the weak contact [hits]. I chalked it up to I couldn't have done anything differently."

Only it's not that easy.

"Like I said in Arlington, I know what 3-8 feels like, because I've been there before," he said. "But I wasn't in the same position I am now."

Keuchel gathered himself nicely six days later, and allowed no earned runs in six innings in Kansas City. That start may have been an important breakthrough, not as much because of the results, but because Keuchel welcomed back an old and dear friend -- his slider.

He threw 31 of them against the Royals, his high in a game this season, and nearly twice the number he threw against the Rangers. He got seven of his 11 swings and misses on it and hopes that was a return to normalcy.

"That's the pitch that's been eluding me for quite some time," he said. "It's been inconsistent. But on Saturday, it was a whole different story."

After that game in Arlington, opposing hitters had a .433 slugging percentage against him. Statcast™ had his expected slugging percentage at .404. Of 125 pitchers who have faced at least 200 batters this season, that 29-point gap was the 12th-highest.

Wait, there's more. His 55.6 percent ground-ball rate is tops in the American League. But his 88 mph average exit velocity is the highest of his career. It was 85.4 mph during his 2015 Cy Young season and 87.8 mph in 2016, when he attempted to pitch through injuries.

None of this would matter if he hadn't struggled a bit -- by his own high standards -- the last month. He had a 3.10 ERA (and only three wins) after nine starts. Then came five starts in which his ERA was 7.33.

His struggles are magnified because he's part of baseball's best rotation -- 2.91 as a staff entering Thursday -- with Justin Verlander (1.60), Gerrit Cole (2.59) and Charlie Morton (2.74) off to dazzling starts.

"I think there's a competitiveness for sure," he said. "But everybody's different, and this is a very long season. I've been on the opposite side where you kind of stress about doing well and maintaining what you're doing. Now I'm on the flip side, and it's like, 'Okay, I feel good, but I'm not performing as well to the normal baseball fan as they've seen me perform.'

"There's less stress now for me because I know the load is not on myself to perform and carry this team. That's one of the greatest feelings, and I guess a valuable learning tool that we got four other starters that are pretty damn good. It's just my start every fifth day, and I don't have to carry the load for five out of five days. That takes an extra load off my shoulders."

Here's a sidebar to the whole thing: He can be a free agent after this season, and he understands that his seventh season with the Astros could be his last.

"As a human being, I think about it every so often," he said. "It's not something I try to think about. But it creeps in the back of your mind. What's life going to be like after this year? I've spent the last seven years here. You show up to the ballpark. You do the same things. We're creatures of habit, so for me, that creeps into my mind. Whatever happens, happens, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't think about it."

For now, though, he has more pressing matters with his own performance and a potential third trip to the postseason in four seasons on the horizon.

Richard Justice has been a reporter for MLB.com since 2011. Read his columns, listen to his podcast and follow him on Twitter at @richardjustice.

[bannedfan]

Keuchel is gone after 2018.

[Saint]

Interesting numbers on some of his...*cough* bad luck.

[ɮօʀȶǟʐ]

Jun 22, 2018 15:56:44 GMT -6 Saint said:

Interesting numbers on some of his...*cough* bad luck.

I meant to tag you in the post. I knew you'd be pleased at the affirmation.

[Saint]

Jun 22, 2018 15:57:30 GMT -6 ɮօʀȶǟʐ said:

Jun 22, 2018 15:56:44 GMT -6 Saint said:

Interesting numbers on some of his...*cough* bad luck.

I meant to tag you in the post. I knew you'd be pleased at the affirmation.

I don't know enough nor care to do in-depth research to hunt down all statcast stuff to defend my arguments so this helps!

[marshall]

I predict that we'll wish keuchel was staying by the end of the year.

[blcoach8]

Jun 22, 2018 15:56:44 GMT -6 Saint said:

Interesting numbers on some of his...*cough* bad luck.

he has created most of his 'bad luck" with poor pitch location.

[marshall]

1 George Springer RF
2 Alex Bregman 3B
3 Jose Altuve 2B
4 Carlos Correa SS
5 Yuli Gurriel 1B
6 Evan Gattis DH
7 Marwin Gonzales LF
8 Max Stassi C
9 Jake Marisnick CF

Dallas Keuchel P

[bannedfan]

Jun 22, 2018 16:04:33 GMT -6 marshall said:

I predict that we'll wish keuchel was staying by the end of the year.

McHugh will be back. Peacock too. Lance. Verlander. Coles. Plus we have pitchers in the minors available in 2019, if not sooner. Can’t see the Astros signing him.

And I forgot about Morton. Not sure what he does.

[abregmanfan]

If Dallas gets the calls just off the plate he will be fine.

[bannedfan]

I can picture Keuchel signing for 3 years and 66 million with someone.

[Saint]

Jun 22, 2018 16:23:42 GMT -6 bannedfan said:

I can picture Keuchel signing for 3 years and 66 million with someone.

I'd be amazed if he got more than Arrieta unless somebody is just desperate for pitching.

[Saint]

Jun 22, 2018 16:05:54 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

Jun 22, 2018 15:56:44 GMT -6 Saint said:

Interesting numbers on some of his...*cough* bad luck.

he has created most of his 'bad luck" with poor pitch location.

His command has certainly been off, but that part is debatable.

[thomasj13]

Jun 22, 2018 13:26:37 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

Jun 22, 2018 12:42:41 GMT -6 @inluhnowwetrust said:

Mmmmmm Brussel sprouts....so good....

I want to vomit at the mention of Brussels sprouts, anchovies, or liver.

+ Olives <------I hate these MFs....

[astrosdoug]

Jun 22, 2018 15:56:44 GMT -6 Saint said:

Interesting numbers on some of his...*cough* bad luck.

The one that stuck out to me was his expected BA against of *only* .280 (which would be about highest on the Astros staff, and way above league average). 

[astrosdoug]

Jun 22, 2018 16:53:25 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Jun 22, 2018 13:26:37 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

I want to vomit at the mention of Brussels sprouts, anchovies, or liver.

+ Olives <------I hate these MFs....

For me, it's always been mayonnaise. Never could understand what demented individual would invent such a vile condiment. I probably have to ask the French. 

[bannedfan]

Bags in the booth.

[koolade2]

For me, it's Egg Plant. or As I call it CardBoard covered in tomato sauce.

By the way, a side note on Egg Plant is a NightShade Veggie and it one of the highest in Ascliac (Sp) Acid. Which is very bad for those of you that have arthritis type problems. the soft squashes are also NightShade Veggies though not quite as bad as Egg Plant.

[koolade2]

Looking at the standing and everyone but Texas is over .500 in the Western Division. Oakland took it to White Sox is first game of two and lead in the second game.

[marshall]

Jun 22, 2018 18:09:06 GMT -6 koolade2 said:

For me, it's Egg Plant. or As I call it CardBoard covered in tomato sauce.

By the way, a side note on Egg Plant is a NightShade Veggie and it one of the highest in Ascliac (Sp) Acid. Which is very bad for those of you that have arthritis type problems. the soft squashes are also NightShade Veggies though not quite as bad as Egg Plant.

I love eggplant Parmesan.

I also love Bags in the booth.

[bannedfan]

U gotta swing at that George.

[koolade2]

Seattle is leading Boston 7-5 top 4.

[bannedfan]

Jun 22, 2018 18:23:14 GMT -6 koolade2 said:

Seattle is leading Boston 7-5 top 4.

Make it 10-5.

[koolade2]

Whoever thought the Astros would be up by 10 at All-Star Break forgot that Seattle is not going away. Ever since Cano got suspended they have been on a tear.

[koolade2]

OH my here comes Saint's Bad Luck Ground Balls from Keuchel.

[marshall]

Jun 22, 2018 18:34:03 GMT -6 koolade2 said:

OH my here comes Saint's Bad Luck Ground Balls from Keuchel.

I'm whoever.

[Saint]

Jun 22, 2018 18:34:03 GMT -6 koolade2 said:

OH my here comes Saint's Bad Luck Ground Balls from Keuchel.

Are we complaining about him already when he hasn't given up a run?

[paastrosfan]

CC must have slept at the Holiday Inn last night.

[Deleted]

Nice CC!