Post by astrosdoug on Apr 2, 2018 5:40:34 GMT -6
The O's are a weak team this season but nonetheless it would be foolish for the Astros to take any opponent lightly. Manny Machado, Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, and Jonathan Schoop can all do offensive damage. Among the pitching staff, Dylan Bundy, Darren O'Day, Brad Brach, and Mychal Givens have the ability to pitch like aces at times.
One interesting thing about the O's roster is that they are carrying only 12 pitchers (5 starters, 7 relievers) on the active roster. That's surprising given the limited ability of their starters to go deep into games. Even though the O's have already had one off day, their bullpen is coming to Minute Maid a bit fatigued. Expect to see Miguel Castro and Nestor Cortes as the first arms out of the pen, and Darren O'Day if the O's are ahead late in a game. Beyond that trio, manager Buck Showalter is likely to turn to Brad Brach, Mychael Givens, and Richard Bleier. If the Astros can chase starters Tillman and Wright early, watch out... we might get to see a position player or a last-minute AAA call-up take the mound for the O's.
Tillman, tonight's starter, had a rough spring training, posting an 8.03 ERA and a .308 batting average against. Last year he was not much better, with a 7.84 ERA. Reportedly the O's inquired about trading Tillman to the Astros for Tony Sipp, but no deal could be reached! He managed to go 6 innings in only 3 of his 19 starts in 2017, and often could only get through 4. One encouraging thing for George Springer is that last season, leadoff hitters in the first inning batted .429 against Tillman with 3 HRs. Will we see another Springer Dinger to celebrate the raising of the World Series flag at MMP?
Mike Wright, Jr. is scheduled to start for the O's in the second game of the series. Wright has a career 5.86 ERA and was used exclusively as a reliever last season. In spring training, Wright put up a 6.63 ERA with a .333 batting avg against. The last time Wright started a regular season game was in June of 2016. At the end of that month, he was demoted to the bullpen. Wright is especially susceptible to left-handed batters, who maintained an OPS of .973 against him last season. Righties hit for a .751 OPS, about the league average.
Given the state of the O's bullpen, both starters are likely to stay out there through about 100 pitches -- come what may.
The third game of the series will be against Dylan Bundy, easily the most competent starter for the O's this year. Bundy held the Twins scoreless on Opening Day, allowing 5 hits and a walk through 7 innings. Impressively, he needed only 88 pitches to record 21 outs. Last season, Bundy recorded one complete game, a 4-0 shutout of the Mariners on August 29. Bundy was, however, hit up pretty hard in spring training, allowing a 7.20 ERA and a .326 batting avg against over 20 innings in Grapefruit League play. Last season, Bundy did a good job of getting outs with runners in scoring position and in general was not easily razzled when things got tough in an inning. With the "home version" of Dallas Keuchel on the mound for the Astros, this one could be a low-scoring affair.
A couple websites that are fun to follow as the series unfolds:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/astros/
www.fangraphs.com/teams/orioles/pitcher-usage
The Astros will seldom have more 3-game series this season that they stand a higher chance of sweeping. Let's get 'er done guys.
One interesting thing about the O's roster is that they are carrying only 12 pitchers (5 starters, 7 relievers) on the active roster. That's surprising given the limited ability of their starters to go deep into games. Even though the O's have already had one off day, their bullpen is coming to Minute Maid a bit fatigued. Expect to see Miguel Castro and Nestor Cortes as the first arms out of the pen, and Darren O'Day if the O's are ahead late in a game. Beyond that trio, manager Buck Showalter is likely to turn to Brad Brach, Mychael Givens, and Richard Bleier. If the Astros can chase starters Tillman and Wright early, watch out... we might get to see a position player or a last-minute AAA call-up take the mound for the O's.
Tillman, tonight's starter, had a rough spring training, posting an 8.03 ERA and a .308 batting average against. Last year he was not much better, with a 7.84 ERA. Reportedly the O's inquired about trading Tillman to the Astros for Tony Sipp, but no deal could be reached! He managed to go 6 innings in only 3 of his 19 starts in 2017, and often could only get through 4. One encouraging thing for George Springer is that last season, leadoff hitters in the first inning batted .429 against Tillman with 3 HRs. Will we see another Springer Dinger to celebrate the raising of the World Series flag at MMP?
Mike Wright, Jr. is scheduled to start for the O's in the second game of the series. Wright has a career 5.86 ERA and was used exclusively as a reliever last season. In spring training, Wright put up a 6.63 ERA with a .333 batting avg against. The last time Wright started a regular season game was in June of 2016. At the end of that month, he was demoted to the bullpen. Wright is especially susceptible to left-handed batters, who maintained an OPS of .973 against him last season. Righties hit for a .751 OPS, about the league average.
Given the state of the O's bullpen, both starters are likely to stay out there through about 100 pitches -- come what may.
The third game of the series will be against Dylan Bundy, easily the most competent starter for the O's this year. Bundy held the Twins scoreless on Opening Day, allowing 5 hits and a walk through 7 innings. Impressively, he needed only 88 pitches to record 21 outs. Last season, Bundy recorded one complete game, a 4-0 shutout of the Mariners on August 29. Bundy was, however, hit up pretty hard in spring training, allowing a 7.20 ERA and a .326 batting avg against over 20 innings in Grapefruit League play. Last season, Bundy did a good job of getting outs with runners in scoring position and in general was not easily razzled when things got tough in an inning. With the "home version" of Dallas Keuchel on the mound for the Astros, this one could be a low-scoring affair.
A couple websites that are fun to follow as the series unfolds:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/astros/
www.fangraphs.com/teams/orioles/pitcher-usage
The Astros will seldom have more 3-game series this season that they stand a higher chance of sweeping. Let's get 'er done guys.
