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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 11, 2019 22:49:06 GMT -6
Your whole premise is based on an at-bat always resulting in an out. Plate appearances don't always result in an out. When they don't those are successes. So we've compared various failures. Plate appearances that do result in outs. The only time that a strike out is the better out is when compared to a double play. The point is, the majority of the time, a strikeout is not worse than other flavors of outs. A base hit or a walk or a HBP is better as well. Those are NOT outs. Those are FAR better results than an out, regardless if the out is by strikeout or other means. Successes are better than failures. I'm not sure why you found it necessary to state the obvious, but I'm happy to follow suit. Very little that is good can from the K. That's old news. I covered that in my OP. I understand that this may sound outdated to stat geeks (not calling you a geek) I'm not as proficient of a stat geek as I'd like to be but I consider that a compliment. but if you look at the past several WS Champions, their K numbers we all low. Royal, Giants, Sox, Stros all were more productive with their outs than other teams that struck out a lot. I'm more concerned with the silly bias against individual players who have good batting stats but who also strikeout at a higher than average rate. "Oh, he has a good OPS but he strikes out way too often. I wouldn't want him on my team." and other such lunacies. But I suppose we could look at it from an overall team stats point of view. Sox you say? Last year, the Red Sox had the third lowest strikeout rate of any team in the AL. Nice little footnote. But the headline news is, they had the highest OPS+. Moral of the story: Success comes by having more plate appearances which don't result in outs of any kind and have greater levels of value in their result. As you can tell...I Hate the K...lol I do too. After all, it's an out. Outs are BAD.
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kj50tx
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Post by kj50tx on Jan 12, 2019 11:40:41 GMT -6
I guess the point I am trying to make is that runners cannot advance typically as a result of a strikeout. I do understand that the law of large numbers throughout the course of a 162 game season comes into effect and non traditional stat lines indicate a strikeout / batted out difference as being minuscule. However, in the high leverage games...such as playoff games...you are not facing the bottom of the pitching staff. You are facing horses. Runs are much harder to come by and productive outs are much more important. The ability to move up 90 feet as a result of a ground ball to 2nd with a runner at 2nd is much more valuable at that point than the K. (Couple runs scored early in game 7 Astros WS by way of ground balls with runners at 3rd and less than 2 outs). A K wouldn’t have gotten the job done.
Truth is, I am probably disagreeing to agree that we are saying the same thing...Lol. Love the game and enjoy talking about it. Glad I found this forum...Huge Stros fan!!!
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 12, 2019 12:19:33 GMT -6
I guess the point I am trying to make is that runners cannot advance typically as a result of a strikeout. I do understand that the law of large numbers throughout the course of a 162 game season comes into effect and non traditional stat lines indicate a strikeout / batted out difference as being minuscule. However, in the high leverage games...such as playoff games...you are not facing the bottom of the pitching staff. You are facing horses. Runs are much harder to come by and productive outs are much more important. The ability to move up 90 feet as a result of a ground ball to 2nd with a runner at 2nd is much more valuable at that point than the K. (Couple runs scored early in game 7 Astros WS by way of ground balls with runners at 3rd and less than 2 outs). A K wouldn’t have gotten the job done. Truth is, I am probably disagreeing to agree that we are saying the same thing...Lol. Love the game and enjoy talking about it. Glad I found this forum... Huge Stros fan!!!Not sure I'd say 'much more valuable' but definitely 'more valuable'. It depends on the number of outs at the time and other runners on base. library.fangraphs.com/misc/re24/Tigers fan here. And since the Tigers will be in rebuild mode for a while, Astros fan due to being a Verlander fan. |
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kj50tx
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Post by kj50tx on Jan 12, 2019 13:15:24 GMT -6
Miggy is one of my favorite hitters. Look forward to many baseball discussions with you in the future.
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 12, 2019 13:38:22 GMT -6
Miggy's best days are behind him. He's still a great player, though. His health is a huge question mark, going forward and the Tigers are on the hook for some serious money through the 20123 season.
I'm not a fan of all the grab-ass stuff he's famous for, but he does have a genuine love for the game.
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kj50tx
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Post by kj50tx on Jan 12, 2019 17:36:50 GMT -6
Can’t speak to his on field antics. I know that he really enjoys playing the game and has fun while on the field. Most definitely over-priced for his recent performance. Cripples Detroit and is one of the big factors in their need to completely revamp.
I am just a big fan of his simple swing and approach at the plate. Dude is a hitting savant, much like Manny Ramirez. JD Martinez is who he is now because of Miggy’s tutelage. I believe he will, if healthy, have a good year this year.
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Post by batman007 on Jan 13, 2019 11:33:28 GMT -6
Coach v. Coach. There can only be one!
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Post by abregmanfan on Jan 13, 2019 20:52:15 GMT -6
Coach v. Coach. There can only be one! This could get real good. Lol. |
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kj50tx
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Post by kj50tx on Jan 15, 2019 14:06:16 GMT -6
Gladly discuss the game with anyone...including coach!!! No ego here. Just like the talk whether it agrees or disagrees...As long as it is respectful.
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 15, 2019 15:46:01 GMT -6
Gladly discuss the game with anyone...including coach!!! No ego here. Just like the talk whether it agrees or disagrees...As long as it is respectful. But just for little bragging rights here...how many career wins did you have and any state titles? Corch- (the other coach) how about you? |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 15, 2019 16:01:54 GMT -6
Gladly discuss the game with anyone...including coach!!! No ego here. Just like the talk whether it agrees or disagrees... As long as it is respectful.Were you active on the old mlb.com hosted message boards? Shit got downright brutal at times. |
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kj50tx
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Post by kj50tx on Jan 15, 2019 20:16:17 GMT -6
2 Rings...hoping to get one more before hanging it up. Our program is not built on records. We make deep runs every year because we ramp up as the season goes. We don’t lose a much in district but use our non-district schedule as practice to develop into what wins in the playoffs. Last 8 years, we have had 26 kids go play at the next level. Currently have 3 kids playing professionally. Still in touch with them all. They come back and practice with us this time of year. Our younger kids eat it up. God has really blessed me to be able to do this.
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Post by abregmanfan on Jan 15, 2019 20:20:55 GMT -6
2 Rings...hoping to get one more before hanging it up. Our program is not built on records. We make deep runs every year because we ramp up as the season goes. We don’t lose a much in district but use our non-district schedule as practice to develop into what wins in the playoffs. Last 8 years, we have had 26 kids go play at the next level. Currently have 3 kids playing professionally. Still in touch with them all. They come back and practice with us this time of year. Our younger kids eat it up. God has really blessed me to be able to do this. Good deal coach. Keep guiding those kids in the right direction. |
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kj50tx
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Post by kj50tx on Jan 15, 2019 20:27:41 GMT -6
Don’t get me wrong...all wins are important...just saying that in pre-district stuff, it isn’t everything. Guess I just don’t like to throw records out there. We win a lot more than we lose.
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Post by olpapa on Jan 15, 2019 20:37:20 GMT -6
Don’t get me wrong...all wins are important...just saying that in pre-district stuff, it isn’t everything. Guess I just don’t like to throw records out there. We win a lot more than we lose. I’m curious as to your opinion of Luhnow. |
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kj50tx
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Post by kj50tx on Jan 15, 2019 23:41:16 GMT -6
I think that he has his eye on both the short and long term well being of this club. The vision he showed when he took the job is unquestionably the standard now for rebuilding your ballclub and setting it up for long term success.
Of course, we as fans want what we want when we want it and get caught up in building fantasy lineups with someone else’s money. We also like to think that we know what the team needs in spite of knowing the parameters that the job requires you to work within. There are some really smart people on this board who make very compelling arguments for players that would look good in a Stros uni.
I think overall, he has done a good job of bringing in guys that have something to prove and pairing them with the homegrown stars that we have. He has also loaded the farm with guys who will hopefully step in and fill roles when they become available.
For me, I wish sometimes he would be a little more aggressive in his approach to free agency. I think he tends to wait for the market on certain players to come back to us when he should strike while he can. As for our current situation, I wish he would give Cole what he is asking for and avoid him going to the arbitrator. Might give us a better shot at retaining him for a longer contract next year.
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 16, 2019 9:15:46 GMT -6
Gladly discuss the game with anyone...including coach!!! No ego here. Just like the talk whether it agrees or disagrees... As long as it is respectful.Were you active on the old mlb.com hosted message boards? Shit got downright brutal at times. Everything is mostly fine on this board, without the need for any real moderation. Boys will be boys, however, and occasionally our 65 years old and up contingency gets a little out of hand. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 16, 2019 9:28:39 GMT -6
Were you active on the old mlb.com hosted message boards? Shit got downright brutal at times. Everything is mostly fine on this board, without the need for any real moderation. Boys will be boys, however, and occasionally our 65 years old and up contingency gets a little out of hand. And, sometimes those under 65 behave like assholes who know it all.  My first time reading this topic and I am delighted to see that another coach has joined us. From reading his posts, I doubt that we diszgree on a lot. He has the exact same opinion I have of strikeouts.......Not good when your hitters do it too often because nothing positive is created by them. In my opinion, it can be just as bad when your pitchers can't get needed K's to get out of an inning, which is my main objection to keeping Keuchel. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 16, 2019 10:05:16 GMT -6
Everything is mostly fine on this board, without the need for any real moderation. Boys will be boys, however, and occasionally our 65 years old and up contingency gets a little out of hand. Yeah, I noticed a couple of them exhibiting signs of second puberty yesterday. The 'Your Mom' stuff started out pretty funny with the dubble intenderz but got kinda graphic as it progressed. Still, there wasn't any genuine hostility. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 16, 2019 10:29:44 GMT -6
Everything is mostly fine on this board, without the need for any real moderation. Boys will be boys, however, and occasionally our 65 years old and up contingency gets a little out of hand. Yeah, I noticed a couple of them exhibiting signs of second puberty yesterday. The 'Your Mom' stuff started out pretty funny with the dubble intenderz but got kinda graphic as it progressed. Still, there wasn't any genuine hostility. Those 2 are our younger members. The crotchety set is more aggressive. |
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Post by Saint on Jan 16, 2019 10:48:11 GMT -6
Everything is mostly fine on this board, without the need for any real moderation. Boys will be boys, however, and occasionally our 65 years old and up contingency gets a little out of hand. Yeah, I noticed a couple of them exhibiting signs of second puberty yesterday. The 'Your Mom' stuff started out pretty funny with the dubble intenderz but got kinda graphic as it progressed. Still, there wasn't any genuine hostility. In my defense, I was pressured into it. And there was no hostility at all. Thomas and I go way way back. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 16, 2019 11:01:17 GMT -6
Everything is mostly fine on this board, without the need for any real moderation. Boys will be boys, however, and occasionally our 65 years old and up contingency gets a little out of hand. And, sometimes those under 65 behave like assholes who know it all. My first time reading this topic and I am delighted to see that another coach has joined us. From reading his posts, I doubt that we diszgree on a lot. He has the exact same opinion I have of strikeouts.......Not good when your hitters do it too often because nothing positive is created by them. In my opinion, it can be just as bad when your pitchers can't get needed K's to get out of an inning, which is my main objection to keeping Keuchel. Although K's are nice, a pitcher doesn't need any to get out of an inning. What they need is three outs of any kind, without anyone crossing the plate. Keuchel's strikeout rate was a bit below American League average in 2018. Not great. But he led the league in number of hits allowed. Very bad. All things considered, he wasn't horrible. He was pretty stingy when it came to giving up homers. And a 3.74 ERA looks decent, although not ace level performance. |
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kj50tx
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Post by kj50tx on Jan 16, 2019 11:20:22 GMT -6
K's are nice and can certainly get a pitcher out of a jam when needed, but Greg Maddux never had a high K/9 rate and he was one of the best to ever step on the bump. His weak contact rate was stellar though. Just had a knack for missing barrels. When Keuchel is rolling, he doesn't get hit hard and throws a lot of double play balls. Difference between CY Keuchel and 2017/2018 Keuchel was late movement and control. Everything Maddux threw, came out of the same arm slot and there wasn't any mechanical differences...he also could hit suspended dimes with everything he threw. When you factor in the movement, location and mechanical similarities of each pitch, his results weren't all that alarming. If Keuchel can get back to (and i think he can) moving it and spotting it, he can be a solid #2 or #3 for just about anyone. Just needs to make sure he isn't tipping...which I think he has a tendency to do on occasion.
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Post by Saint on Jan 16, 2019 11:38:40 GMT -6
And, sometimes those under 65 behave like assholes who know it all. My first time reading this topic and I am delighted to see that another coach has joined us. From reading his posts, I doubt that we diszgree on a lot. He has the exact same opinion I have of strikeouts.......Not good when your hitters do it too often because nothing positive is created by them. In my opinion, it can be just as bad when your pitchers can't get needed K's to get out of an inning, which is my main objection to keeping Keuchel. Although K's are nice, a pitcher doesn't need any to get out of an inning. What they need is three outs of any kind, without anyone crossing the plate. Keuchel's strikeout rate was a bit below American League average in 2018. Not great. But he led the league in number of hits allowed. Very bad. All things considered, he wasn't horrible. He was pretty stingy when it came to giving up homers. And a 3.74 ERA looks decent, although not ace level performance. Keuchel's groundball rate and soft contact allowed is severely undervalued though, and his FIP was the best it has been since his CY season. He had two rough starts in September where he gave up 5+ earned runs that ballooned his ERA up from 3.46. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 16, 2019 12:10:43 GMT -6
K's are nice and can certainly get a pitcher out of a jam when needed, but Greg Maddux never had a high K/9 rate and he was one of the best to ever step on the bump. His weak contact rate was stellar though. Just had a knack for missing barrels. When Keuchel is rolling, he doesn't get hit hard and throws a lot of double play balls. Difference between CY Keuchel and 2017/2018 Keuchel was late movement and control. Everything Maddux threw, came out of the same arm slot and there wasn't any mechanical differences...he also could hit suspended dimes with everything he threw. When you factor in the movement, location and mechanical similarities of each pitch, his results weren't all that alarming. If Keuchel can get back to (and i think he can) moving it and spotting it, he can be a solid #2 or #3 for just about anyone. Just needs to make sure he isn't tipping...which I think he has a tendency to do on occasion. What I like about the K is that it doesn't advance runners nor allow for fielding errors, execept if the catcher fails to catch the pitch. Greg Maddux was the premier control pitcher and at missing barrels. He, along with Tom Glavine, managed to get umpires to call pitches that were often several inches off the plate as strikes. We still hear of umpires who have the "Maddux strike zone". Keuchel had an excellent season in 2015 and won the CY Young, but, has not been that effective consistently since that time. I agree with you that he could be tipping pitches. For some reason, his soft contract rate isn't nearly as low as it used to be. He is allowing more baserunners and isn't enticing the DP ball as often as he once did. He can be an effective #3 on the Astros staff behind Verlander and Cole, but, I don't think he gets the money he wants from us. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 16, 2019 12:50:02 GMT -6
Yeah, I noticed a couple of them exhibiting signs of second puberty yesterday. The 'Your Mom' stuff started out pretty funny with the dubble intenderz but got kinda graphic as it progressed. Still, there wasn't any genuine hostility. In my defense, I was pressured into it. And there was no hostility at all. Thomas and I go way way back. Umm, like if I didn't shoot you down and tell you I wasn't gay, but respected you as a poster, you and Yessi might never have happened... |
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 16, 2019 12:52:47 GMT -6
BTW - for those that have Netflix, The Ranch is a good show...well the first four episodes are not so great, but once it gets passed the one liner jokes and develops into story lines, it becomes a really good show to watch.. remember first 4 are meh at best.
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kj50tx
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Post by kj50tx on Jan 16, 2019 12:54:14 GMT -6
I agree that the K is a huge factor in success for a pitcher. I like it for the defense the same way I hate it for the offense. Maddux was certainly an anomaly in that he didn't get a ton of K's and was extremely successful. I think that Glavine is actually a better comparison to Keuchel in that they both need the umpire to give em a little to be elite. They have the same type stuff. Keuchel just doesn't have the same control in the zone that Glavine had. While Glavine may have walked more batters...i think that was more a product of him just not giving in than control. Keuchel, for the last 3 years has lost a little of his command in the zone at times and it has really gotten him in trouble. He doesn't seem to just get shelled...seems like he might give up a soft single, has a walk and then an extra base hit or 2 then settles back in. Lack of focus or breakdown of mechanics might be the cause. He has the stuff to be elite or close to it.
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 16, 2019 12:57:33 GMT -6
By the way, kj50tx, how did you happen to find our forum? Did it come up in Google search results? I've been meaning to take steps to advertise the site but haven't gotten to it yet. |
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Post by Saint on Jan 16, 2019 13:06:45 GMT -6
In my defense, I was pressured into it. And there was no hostility at all. Thomas and I go way way back. Umm, like if I didn't shoot you down and tell you I wasn't gay, but respected you as a poster, you and Yessi might never have happened... You say you aren't but we know the truth. And there's nothing wrong with that. |
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