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Post by Hunter McCormick on Dec 31, 2018 9:16:37 GMT -6
Now that I have your attention, let me make a minor clarification. Truth be told, strikeout rate isn't completely meaningless but its meaning is far less than many fans give it credit for. An intelligent way to evaluate the value of a batter focuses on OPS, OPS+, wOBA, wRC+, etc, and relegates strikeout rate to the footnotes and places almost no importance on it.
Strikeouts are bad. All outs are inherently bad.
Out are precious. Giving one up is a bad thing.
I can't say this strongly enough: OUTS ARE BAD. On the plus side, the one positive thing that can occur as the result of a strikeout is ... On very rare occasions, a strikeout will result in a runner reaching base safely.
Okay, since we've heard all the positive things that can occur as the result of strikeouts, let's look at the positive things that can occur as the result from other types of outs. [Pop-up]Can anything positive happen as a result of a pop-up? Sounds just as bad as a strikeout. [Line-out](infield) Could result in a runner being double-off. Two outs instead of one. VERY BAD. Or it could be just as bad as a strikeout. (outfield) Could result in advancing a runner. (still bad, but mitigated by something good.) Or it could be just as bad as a strikeout [Fly out]Could result in a runner being advanced. Or it could be just as bad as a strikeout. [Ground out]Could result in a runner being advanced. Or it could be just as bad as a strikeout. Or it could result in a double-play. VERY BAD. (fielder's choice) Basically as bad as a strikeout. If the batter erases a slower runner, there is a marginal amount of good mitigating the bad. If the batter erases a faster runner, there is a marginal amount of bad added to the bad. -------------------------- Trade-offs ------------------------------------- Is scoring a run worth a double-play? Not really. The way stats are given (no RBI on a DP) supports this. Exception: I'll take a game-winning RBI on a double-play any day of the week. Is scoring a run worth giving up an out? I think so. How about you? Is advancing a runner worth giving up an out? In my opinion it's usually a poor trade. Not a horrible trade, just definitely less than even. But it is certainty better than an out that doesn't advance a runner. ------------------------ Situations -------------------------------------- There were 184580 MLB Plate Appearances in 2016 104864 of them were with the bases empty. (57%) More often than not, it would not have mattered one single bit how an out was made. The rest of the time, there was some chance of adding something good (or something bad) to an out. Are strikeouts really as horrible as some would have you believe? Decide for yourself. But if you're one of those old-school thinkers who still believes strikeout rate is important, let's debate. I just might be able to convince you how trivial this stat truly is. |
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Post by Saint on Dec 31, 2018 12:57:27 GMT -6
The other positive about strikeouts:
Prevent GIDPs.
Makes the pitcher throw more pitches on average. This increases pitch counts and also grants increased chances for base stealing attempts or advancing on wild pitches or passed balls.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2018 13:36:37 GMT -6
Nice analysis, but would like to bring up a peripheral point that semi relates to the stigma of Strikeouts.
Generally, a lot of strikeouts by a batter tends to indicate a lack of plate discipline, indicative of a lower BA, OPS, etc.
You are pretty much right in the contention that in a straight up stat scenario....... An out is an out.
BUT... It would be interesting to see a correlateable graph plotting ba vs. K's. I'd venture it probably tracks pretty well.
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Post by unionstation82 on Dec 31, 2018 15:08:36 GMT -6
The other positive about strikeouts: Prevent GIDPs. Makes the pitcher throw more pitches on average. This increases pitch counts and also grants increased chances for base stealing attempts or advancing on wild pitches or passed balls. Haha you’re like a lawyer representing Chris Carter in arbitration. |
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Post by Saint on Dec 31, 2018 15:13:56 GMT -6
The other positive about strikeouts: Prevent GIDPs. Makes the pitcher throw more pitches on average. This increases pitch counts and also grants increased chances for base stealing attempts or advancing on wild pitches or passed balls. Haha you’re like a lawyer representing Chris Carter in arbitration. Hey, Carter was really pretty productive for us offensively. He just didn't bring anything else. 30 HR 78 RBI 113 OPS+ per year with an average salary of $1.3 million a year. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Dec 31, 2018 15:16:32 GMT -6
Haha you’re like a lawyer representing Chris Carter in arbitration. Hey, Carter was really pretty productive for us offensively. He just didn't bring anything else. 30 HR 78 RBI 113 OPS+ per year with an average salary of $1.3 million a year. I was one of the few who didn’t mind him. I just thought it was redundant to have him and Gattis in the same lineup. |
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Post by Saint on Dec 31, 2018 15:21:18 GMT -6
Hey, Carter was really pretty productive for us offensively. He just didn't bring anything else. 30 HR 78 RBI 113 OPS+ per year with an average salary of $1.3 million a year. I was one of the few who didn’t mind him. I just thought it was redundant to have him and Gattis in the same lineup. It would have been absolutely fine if they had let Gattis catch more... The main problem with both of those guys is that they didn't walk enough to make up for the Ks. The OBPs really needed to be more in the .330-.360 range. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Dec 31, 2018 15:27:30 GMT -6
I was one of the few who didn’t mind him. I just thought it was redundant to have him and Gattis in the same lineup. It would have been absolutely fine if they had let Gattis catch more... The main problem with both of those guys is that they didn't walk enough to make up for the Ks. The OBPs really needed to be more in the .330-.360 range. For whatever reason, they didn’t like Gattis enough on defense to give him enough starts at catcher. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Dec 31, 2018 15:44:00 GMT -6
Hey, Carter was really pretty productive for us offensively. He just didn't bring anything else. 30 HR 78 RBI 113 OPS+ per year with an average salary of $1.3 million a year. I was one of the few who didn’t mind him. I just thought it was redundant to have him and Gattis in the same lineup. He'd have been more likeable if he'd walked back to the dugout faster after his 1000 strike outs. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 1, 2019 8:54:48 GMT -6
Nice analysis, but would like to bring up a peripheral point that semi relates to the stigma of Strikeouts. Generally, a lot of strikeouts by a batter tends to indicate a lack of plate discipline, indicative of a lower BA, OPS, etc. You are pretty much right in the contention that in a straight up stat scenario....... An out is an out. BUT... It would be interesting to see a correlateable graph plotting ba vs. K's. I'd venture it probably tracks pretty well. BA is a decent stat but in my opinion stats which include slugging in the equation are far better. So I'd tend to use OPS or some other stat which does a better job of indicating a player's overall value at the plate. I don't know how to create a graph so the best I can do for you is provide a sortable list. Like you, I thought (before spending time looking at these lists) that as an overall trend strikeouts would track well enough. In general, low K rate should suggest better hitters. It sort of does but we see plenty of truly horrible hitters with phenomenally low strikeout rates and some good hitters who look terrible in terms of strikeouts. Unfortunately fangraphs doesn't use OPS+ which makes it easy to spot good or bad at a glance because 100 is league average. But wRC+ (arguably a more complete stat) does center around 100 as average. The link below is sorted from best to worst using K%
EDIT: Apparently the link doesn't result in sorted according to K%. So you'll need to click on K% twice, to sort from lowest to highest.
www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,4,6,11,12,13,21,-1,34,35,40,41,-1,23,37,38,39,50,61,-1,111,-1,203,199,58&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=10,a We see a couple of good hitters at the top of that list. Who's ranked third? Yikes! I've spent the past couple of seasons hearing about how Victor is one of the toughest guys in baseball to strike out. Yeah, that's really nice. But other than that, what value does he bring in the batter's box? Not much. As you scan down the list, you'll see a nearly random mix of good to bad. Okay, so let's look at this from a different perspective. We'll rank from best to worst according to wRC+. You'll notice that Offensive WAR, wOBA and OPS track pretty well with it. K rate is still all over the map although it does tend to remain somewhere between a bit worse than average to very good.
Click on the wRC+ heading to sort. Mike Trout tops that list. But in terms of strikeouts he isn't very special, is he? He ranks right around the middle of the pack in K rate. |
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Post by olpapa on Jan 1, 2019 14:46:59 GMT -6
Ohhhh... now I understand how Chris Davis is earning that $161 million.
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Post by olpapa on Jan 1, 2019 14:50:30 GMT -6
I was one of the few who didn’t mind him. I just thought it was redundant to have him and Gattis in the same lineup. He'd have been more likeable if he'd walked back to the dugout faster after his 1000 strike outs. Nobody could mosey back to the dugout quite like Carter. |
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Post by olpapa on Jan 1, 2019 14:53:21 GMT -6
If striking out is a good thing, Fisher should be our most valuable trade chip.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 1, 2019 15:35:55 GMT -6
If striking out is a good thing, Fisher should be our most valuable trade chip. White can be just a better version of Fisher sometimes. Man, he can stare at some hittable pitches. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 1, 2019 15:35:59 GMT -6
He'd have been more likeable if he'd walked back to the dugout faster after his 1000 strike outs. Nobody could mosey back to the dugout quite like Carter. Jason Castro begs to differ. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 1, 2019 15:40:01 GMT -6
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Post by olpapa on Jan 1, 2019 16:22:07 GMT -6
Nobody could mosey back to the dugout quite like Carter. Jason Castro begs to differ. Castro had the staring-in-disbelief thing mastered, but nobody could mosey like Carter. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 1, 2019 17:18:56 GMT -6
He'd have been more likeable if he'd walked back to the dugout faster after his 1000 strike outs. Nobody could mosey back to the dugout quite like Carter. That is for sure. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 2, 2019 0:20:15 GMT -6
Jason Castro begs to differ. Castro had the staring-in-disbelief thing mastered, but nobody could mosey like Carter. Moseying is still movement. Castro would just stand there whining. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 2, 2019 6:26:24 GMT -6
Ohhhh... now I understand how Chris Davis is earning that $161 million.
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Post by olpapa on Jan 2, 2019 9:03:17 GMT -6
Ohhhh... now I understand how Chris Davis is earning that $161 million.
Yeah...I see you referenced 2015 when Davis struck out 4.42 times for every home run he hit. Problem is he struck out 12 times for every home run he hit in 2018. Try running your “ain’t strike outs grand?” spiel past the Orioles fans. Don’t think they will buy it. |
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Post by m240 on Jan 2, 2019 9:13:50 GMT -6
Yeah...I see you referenced 2015 when Davis struck out 4.42 times for every home run he hit. Problem is he struck out 12 times for every home run he hit in 2018. Try running your “ain’t strike outs grand?” spiel past the Orioles fans. Don’t think they will buy it. And yet there were times last year when Gurriel came up that I hoped that he would strike out but he did not and hit a 2 hopper to short for a quick 6, 4, 3 end to the inning. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 2, 2019 10:03:58 GMT -6
Yeah...I see you referenced 2015 when Davis struck out 4.42 times for every home run he hit. Problem is he struck out 12 times for every home run he hit in 2018. Try running your “ain’t strike outs grand?” spiel past the Orioles fans. Don’t think they will buy it. Hey there olpapa , I'm pretty sure I said strikeouts are bad, not grand or even good.  |
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Post by Saint on Jan 2, 2019 10:57:45 GMT -6
Strikeouts aren't good, but they're not that big of a deal if the hitter is productive the rest of the time. Heck, Bagwell averaged over a 100 strikeouts a season.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 5, 2019 8:43:35 GMT -6
"Can anything positive happen as a result of a pop-up?"
Yes, you can win the game. Just ask Alex Bregman and Eric Hosmer.
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 5, 2019 10:40:04 GMT -6
"Can anything positive happen as a result of a pop-up?" Yes, you can win the game. Just ask Alex Bregman and Eric Hosmer. Okay, fair enough. I assume you're talking about this:
I didn't explicitly say an OUT which is the result of a pop-up. But I was talking about outs other than strikeouts. Then again, you gave everyone an opportunity to enjoy a happy Astros moment so, that's cool.
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 5, 2019 10:47:35 GMT -6
Strikeouts aren't good, but they're not that big of a deal if the hitter is productive the rest of the time. Heck, Bagwell averaged over a 100 strikeouts a season. That's the gist of it. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 5, 2019 11:06:25 GMT -6
Strikeouts aren't good, but they're not that big of a deal if the hitter is productive the rest of the time. Heck, Bagwell averaged over a 100 strikeouts a season. Bagwell was a damn god. |
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kj50tx
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Post by kj50tx on Jan 11, 2019 14:21:15 GMT -6
Your whole premise is based on an at-bat always resulting in an out. The only time that a strike out is the better out is when compared to a double play. In this instance...I absolutely agree with your argument. However, baseball games are typically won by the team that has runners that reach 3rd with less than 2 outs the most. Then a ground ball out or a flyball out is much better than the strikeout. A base hit or a walk or a HBP is better as well. Very little that is good can from the K. I understand that this may sound outdated to stat geeks (not calling you a geek) but if you look at the past several WS Champions, their K numbers we all low. Royal, Giants, Sox, Stros all were more productive with their outs than other teams that struck out a lot.
I will qualify my stance by saying that I am a High School Varsity Baseball Head Coach that has coached at the High School and College level for over 30 years. I think that this way of playing the game is dangerous for the younger guys that I see because, truthfully...we can't win that way and the vast majority of the kids that play at the High School and College level will never get to even see a minor league stadium. Errors are a lot more prevalent in High School and College but the same principals apply. As you can tell...I Hate the K...lol
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 11, 2019 15:57:47 GMT -6
Your whole premise is based on an at-bat always resulting in an out. The only time that a strike out is the better out is when compared to a double play. In this instance...I absolutely agree with your argument. However, baseball games are typically won by the team that has runners that reach 3rd with less than 2 outs the most. Then a ground ball out or a flyball out is much better than the strikeout. A base hit or a walk or a HBP is better as well. Very little that is good can from the K. I understand that this may sound outdated to stat geeks (not calling you a geek) but if you look at the past several WS Champions, their K numbers we all low. Royal, Giants, Sox, Stros all were more productive with their outs than other teams that struck out a lot. I will qualify my stance by saying that I am a High School Varsity Baseball Head Coach that has coached at the High School and College level for over 30 years. I think that this way of playing the game is dangerous for the younger guys that I see because, truthfully...we can't win that way and the vast majority of the kids that play at the High School and College level will never get to even see a minor league stadium. Errors are a lot more prevalent in High School and College but the same principals apply. As you can tell...I Hate the K...lol Welcome to the forum, Coach. |
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