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Post by thomasj13 on Apr 11, 2019 15:48:16 GMT -6
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Apr 11, 2019 16:21:53 GMT -6
You (and my wife) must get tired of saying “you’re right” to me. 😄
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Post by thomasj13 on Apr 11, 2019 16:51:10 GMT -6
You (and my wife) must get tired of saying “you’re right” to me. 😄 You, a man, actually have someone, a wife, that says you're right.... |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Apr 11, 2019 17:56:19 GMT -6
This Albies extension is ridiculous. $45 million for 9 years basically. He'll be 31 years old before he hits free agency unless they don't pick up his $7 million annual options the last couple years. For comparison, this would be like if we signed Bregman to an extension before last year for half the amount we just agreed to and also for more years. Either Albies absolutely loves ATL, doesn't have much faith in his future durability or production, or he is one of the few professional athletes that really isn't in for just the money. Or some combination there of. Or maybe he values insuring a good payday over the chance of having a huge payday which comes with the risk of having no payday at all? Remember, he starts this year at minimum wage. And since the most ML time he'll have going into next season will be two years and 62 days, he won't qualify as a Super-2. So another minimum wage year in 2020. Let's do a rough guess at what he would make during the next 5 years if he maintains his current performance level ... (remember, arb years fall far short of FA contracts and the first year is WAY short. 2019 - $1/2 mill 2020 - $1/2 mill 2021 - $3 mill 2022 - $7 mill 2023 - 12 mill Total - $ 23 mill And that has the risk of stopping entirely at any point following a career-ending injury. For instance, if he gets permanently hurt tomorrow, he'll get his half mill for the year but the Braves won't tender a contract in the fall. So that's it. He's out in the cold. The first two of his free agent years at a bargain rate is a fair trade for locking in his salary and giving him an 'insurance policy'. What I don't get is the two years after that. Bargain rate and a moderate sized buyout option for the team. If that's a mutual option (the player can walk away with no money for those years if he chooses) that seems to be just fine. If it's a team option only, I think he could have done much better. Let's see what the deets look like when they're released. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 11, 2019 19:13:37 GMT -6
You (and my wife) must get tired of saying “you’re right” to me. 😄 Women don’t say that. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Apr 11, 2019 19:30:41 GMT -6
You (and my wife) must get tired of saying “you’re right” to me. 😄 Women don’t say that. He is taking his patients' meds again |
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Post by Saint on Apr 11, 2019 19:44:01 GMT -6
This Albies extension is ridiculous. $45 million for 9 years basically. He'll be 31 years old before he hits free agency unless they don't pick up his $7 million annual options the last couple years. For comparison, this would be like if we signed Bregman to an extension before last year for half the amount we just agreed to and also for more years. Either Albies absolutely loves ATL, doesn't have much faith in his future durability or production, or he is one of the few professional athletes that really isn't in for just the money. Or some combination there of. Or maybe he values insuring a good payday over the chance of having a huge payday which comes with the risk of having no payday at all? Remember, he starts this year at minimum wage. And since the most ML time he'll have going into next season will be two years and 62 days, he won't qualify as a Super-2. So another minimum wage year in 2020. Let's do a rough guess at what he would make during the next 5 years if he maintains his current performance level ... (remember, arb years fall far short of FA contracts and the first year is WAY short. 2019 - $1/2 mill 2020 - $1/2 mill 2021 - $3 mill 2022 - $7 mill 2023 - 12 mill Total - $ 23 mill And that has the risk of stopping entirely at any point following a career-ending injury. For instance, if he gets permanently hurt tomorrow, he'll get his half mill for the year but the Braves won't tender a contract in the fall. So that's it. He's out in the cold. The first two of his free agent years at a bargain rate is a fair trade for locking in his salary and giving him an 'insurance policy'. What I don't get is the two years after that. Bargain rate and a moderate sized buyout option for the team. If that's a mutual option (the player can walk away with no money for those years if he chooses) that seems to be just fine. If it's a team option only, I think he could have done much better. Let's see what the deets look like when they're released. Don't get me wrong, I think these extensions are great ideas. But he gave up way too much potential money for his free agent years. |
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Post by abregmanfan on Apr 11, 2019 19:51:29 GMT -6
Or maybe he values insuring a good payday over the chance of having a huge payday which comes with the risk of having no payday at all? Remember, he starts this year at minimum wage. And since the most ML time he'll have going into next season will be two years and 62 days, he won't qualify as a Super-2. So another minimum wage year in 2020. Let's do a rough guess at what he would make during the next 5 years if he maintains his current performance level ... (remember, arb years fall far short of FA contracts and the first year is WAY short. 2019 - $1/2 mill 2020 - $1/2 mill 2021 - $3 mill 2022 - $7 mill 2023 - 12 mill Total - $ 23 mill And that has the risk of stopping entirely at any point following a career-ending injury. For instance, if he gets permanently hurt tomorrow, he'll get his half mill for the year but the Braves won't tender a contract in the fall. So that's it. He's out in the cold. The first two of his free agent years at a bargain rate is a fair trade for locking in his salary and giving him an 'insurance policy'. What I don't get is the two years after that. Bargain rate and a moderate sized buyout option for the team. If that's a mutual option (the player can walk away with no money for those years if he chooses) that seems to be just fine. If it's a team option only, I think he could have done much better. Let's see what the deets look like when they're released. Don't get me wrong, I think these extensions are great ideas. But he gave up way too much potential money for his free agent years. I do not like the extension at all in this case. Boo Atlanta. I am never on the greedy side, but man.... |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 11, 2019 19:52:23 GMT -6
Joe Musgrove went 6.1 innings today against the Cubs, gave up 2 runs on four hits... too bad for him, got no run support.
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 11, 2019 20:42:43 GMT -6
Also, the Astros might be trying to use the bunt more this season. They are on pace to have 40 successful Bunt Hits this year, compared with only 15 all of 2018. Maybe this is a response to infield shifting... in general, sabermetrics-minded managers don't like the bunt, but it does make an awful lot of sense against the shift. What do you think Doug about the running game so far this season. I applaud the fact that they are running more often (14 SB attempts in the first 13 games) even though the results haven't quite been there yet (caught stealing 6 of those 14 times). If they just abide by the golden rules of base stealing, they should be successful at least 75% of the time, which would make this aspect of the game an overall plus for the team. I think 110 successful SB attempts together with 30 CS is achievable for this team. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 11, 2019 20:50:50 GMT -6
Altuve, Reddick, Kemp, Jake, Yuli, Correa, and Brantley have all shown the ability in the recent past to steal bases with a >75% success rate. Springer hasn't really demonstrated that ability, so I wouldn't encourage him to steal this season except in special situations. Same with Correa, due to the back issues.
But that still leaves 6 good base stealers in the lineup, so to get to 110 SB's for the season, each player would need to contribute an average of 18 swiped bags. With a good knee now, Altuve is probably good for at least 25 SB's this year.
We've already seen a lot of cases this year where the failure to steal 2B (even when the right conditions were there: catcher not especially good at throwing out runners; runner at 1B has good speed, pitcher not doing much to hold the runner on...) led to a GIDP. I'd like to see the team do more to use the running game to reduce the GIDP risk.
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 11, 2019 20:55:54 GMT -6
The Mariners, by contrast, are probably looking at 95 SB just from the trio of Dee Gordon, Mallex Smith, and Domingo Santana. Gordon and Smith may well get 40 each.
That team probably won't make the playoffs, but their speed on the bases will keep them pesky enough to provide the rest of the league with some nailbiters and some cursing at the TV screen when the Seattle running game allows them to pull off an upset win.
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 11, 2019 21:10:14 GMT -6
Just looking at BABIP figures for the first 13 games, one thing that stands out is that Kemp and Diaz have had unusually bad luck getting balls-in-play to fall for hits. Once their luck normalizes over a larger number of plate appearances, each of those guys projects to hit at least .275. So I wouldn't be concerned about either of them.
At the other extreme, Jake and Correa have had an unsustainable amount of luck on balls in play, so we can expect their averages to drop back somewhat.
The numbers support the idea that White and Stassi are the two big strugglers this year. In both cases, it's the strikeout that is killing these guys. Whereas Stassi has always had a high K rate, that isn't true for White, so we'll have to see if that trend continues. I think that Hudgens put a lot of pressure on White to get outside his comfort zone and start trying to hit to the opposite field and up the middle more. When he's gotten hits, they have tended to be up the middle or oppo... in contrast to his previous seasons, where he was a pull hitter. If White's luck doesn't turn around soon, he may be well advised to return to the approach that served him well before. But it's easy to understand why a guy who barely made the 25-man roster would want to respect his coach's advice for as long as possible.
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 11, 2019 21:37:33 GMT -6
In the off-season we were talking about Hunter Renfroe as a possible fourth outfielder and DH type of player who might be available given some of SD's moves over the winter.
Well, the dude is hitting for a 1.202 OPS in his first 34 AB's with 4 HRs. He's done a much better job so far this season of avoiding the strikeout, which was one his big limitations in previous years.
Renfroe may be one to watch come July if SD isn't projecting to make the playoffs and the Astros are needing a power hitter who plays some OF. Renfroe's spray chart suggests he would hit a prodigious number of Crawford Box HRs.
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 11, 2019 22:03:35 GMT -6
In the off-season we were talking about Hunter Renfroe as a possible fourth outfielder and DH type of player who might be available given some of SD's moves over the winter. Well, the dude is hitting for a 1.202 OPS in his first 34 AB's with 4 HRs. He's done a much better job so far this season of avoiding the strikeout, which was one his big limitations in previous years. Renfroe may be one to watch come July if SD isn't projecting to make the playoffs and the Astros are needing a power hitter who plays some OF. Renfroe's spray chart suggests he would hit a prodigious number of Crawford Box HRs. I’d take Renfroe as our DH 11 times out of 10. I’m still waiting on White to blow us away with his hitting, but so far he’s been mediocre with flashes of sufficiency. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 11, 2019 22:13:04 GMT -6
In the off-season we were talking about Hunter Renfroe as a possible fourth outfielder and DH type of player who might be available given some of SD's moves over the winter. Well, the dude is hitting for a 1.202 OPS in his first 34 AB's with 4 HRs. He's done a much better job so far this season of avoiding the strikeout, which was one his big limitations in previous years. Renfroe may be one to watch come July if SD isn't projecting to make the playoffs and the Astros are needing a power hitter who plays some OF. Renfroe's spray chart suggests he would hit a prodigious number of Crawford Box HRs. I’d take Renfroe as our DH 11 times out of 10. I’m still waiting on White to blow us away with his hitting, but so far he’s been mediocre with flashes of sufficiency. With Gurriel and Diaz both available to play 1B, it's not like White is an essential piece for his defense this season. He has to start hitting if he expects to stay on the team past the trade deadline. I give him 60% odds of turning things around -- most of his problems seem related to strategy and the mental side of the game; it's not like his raw power or contact ability are declining. Still, it's up to him to make the changes necessary. And it's also up to Hudgens to counsel White to do things that are going to lead to success this season, rather than make changes that, in theory, should yield long-term results (but not necessarily this year). |
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 12, 2019 5:26:44 GMT -6
I’d take Renfroe as our DH 11 times out of 10. I’m still waiting on White to blow us away with his hitting, but so far he’s been mediocre with flashes of sufficiency. With Gurriel and Diaz both available to play 1B, it's not like White is an essential piece for his defense this season. He has to start hitting if he expects to stay on the team past the trade deadline. I give him 60% odds of turning things around -- most of his problems seem related to strategy and the mental side of the game; it's not like his raw power or contact ability are declining. Still, it's up to him to make the changes necessary. And it's also up to Hudgens to counsel White to do things that are going to lead to success this season, rather than make changes that, in theory, should yield long-term results (but not necessarily this year). The Astros see the DH spot as more of a rotational and pseudo off day type of position on the team. If you’re thinking dollars and cents, White is a likely cheaper long term option than a guy like Renfroe. It’s almost as if financially it would be better for the team for him to be mediocre, which also makes the DH less of a committed roster area than say Boston in the Ortiz era. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 12, 2019 5:28:22 GMT -6
With Peacock back in the bullpen, it may be time to think about test driving one of the minor league arms already on the 40-man to see if they might stick in the MLB.
Currently, any one of Dean Deetz, Cionel Perez, Rogelio Armenteros, or Brady Rodgers could be given a major league start without wasting an extra space on the 40-man. This could be a good idea since the current 5-man rotation hardly seems a sure thing to make it the entire season.
Cionel was hit up pretty hard during spring training, but the other 3 guys hung in there all right. The Astros already know what they have in Peacock, but the same can't be said of Deetz/Armenteros/Rodgers, at least at the major league level.
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Post by Saint on Apr 12, 2019 7:32:19 GMT -6
Don't get me wrong, I think these extensions are great ideas. But he gave up way too much potential money for his free agent years. I do not like the extension at all in this case. Boo Atlanta. I am never on the greedy side, but man.... I think most of the extensions have been excellent for both sides, but this one (and Acuna's too) are a little extreme. Yes, the players are making life-changing money and getting plenty of security for themselves, but it sets a little bit of a bad precedent and the ATL FO is, most likely, going to make out like bandits on these deals. Extensions that are fair to both sides are fantastic for baseball, this one is a little too lop-sided. |
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Post by Saint on Apr 12, 2019 7:41:17 GMT -6
In the off-season we were talking about Hunter Renfroe as a possible fourth outfielder and DH type of player who might be available given some of SD's moves over the winter. Well, the dude is hitting for a 1.202 OPS in his first 34 AB's with 4 HRs. He's done a much better job so far this season of avoiding the strikeout, which was one his big limitations in previous years. Renfroe may be one to watch come July if SD isn't projecting to make the playoffs and the Astros are needing a power hitter who plays some OF. Renfroe's spray chart suggests he would hit a prodigious number of Crawford Box HRs. I’d take Renfroe as our DH 11 times out of 10. I’m still waiting on White to blow us away with his hitting, but so far he’s been mediocre with flashes of sufficiency. You love Hunter Renfroe but hate Gattis? Explain por favor! |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Apr 12, 2019 8:42:34 GMT -6
Peacock is back in the BP?
The problem with players like White is that the MLB roster isn't the place to be working on your mechanics. He's young and inexperienced and likely can't make those changes on the fly against MLB pitching. He needs to go to AAA to work out those changes.
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 12, 2019 9:09:49 GMT -6
I’d take Renfroe as our DH 11 times out of 10. I’m still waiting on White to blow us away with his hitting, but so far he’s been mediocre with flashes of sufficiency. You love Hunter Renfroe but hate Gattis? Explain por favor! No stupid Mexican nickname. |
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Post by bearbryant on Apr 12, 2019 9:17:42 GMT -6
Peacock will pitch out the bullpen til the schedule requires him to make a start
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Post by Saint on Apr 12, 2019 9:38:23 GMT -6
You love Hunter Renfroe but hate Gattis? Explain por favor! No stupid Mexican nickname. Wow. That nickname is badass. P.S. Renfroe is younger Gattis. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 12, 2019 10:14:48 GMT -6
No stupid Mexican nickname. Wow. That nickname is badass. P.S. Renfroe is younger Gattis. Big white bears don’t flail into double plays. |
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Post by Saint on Apr 12, 2019 10:23:38 GMT -6
Wow. That nickname is badass. P.S. Renfroe is younger Gattis. Big white bears don’t flail into double plays. Yeah, because our best hitters with "cooler" nicknames never ever GIDP...............................dotdotdotdotdotdotdot  |
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 12, 2019 10:33:09 GMT -6
Big white bears don’t flail into double plays. Yeah, because our best hitters with "cooler" nicknames never ever GIDP...............................dotdotdotdotdotdotdot Biggio didn’t in ‘97. Suck it. |
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Post by Saint on Apr 12, 2019 10:36:43 GMT -6
Yeah, because our best hitters with "cooler" nicknames never ever GIDP...............................dotdotdotdotdotdotdot Biggio didn’t in ‘97. Suck it. Biggio also never hit 30+ mammoth bombs with nothing but his bare (bear?) hands and a stick. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 12, 2019 10:37:48 GMT -6
Biggio didn’t in ‘97. Suck it. Biggio also never hit 30+ mammoth bombs with nothing but his bare (bear?) hands and a stick. Cool, what team does he play for? |
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Post by Saint on Apr 12, 2019 10:38:24 GMT -6
Biggio also never hit 30+ mammoth bombs with nothing but his bare (bear?) hands and a stick. Cool, what team does he play for? What team does Biggio play for? Bam. |
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