|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 15, 2018 12:40:57 GMT -6
Cy Young winner Justin Verlander takes on Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon.
As recently as 2016, Colon has played in the All-Star Game so even though he's old (oldest active player in MLB, actually), he can still compete.
Astros ambushed him for 5 runs in the first inning of Colon's most recent start against Houston. That came last season when Colon was a member of the Atlanta Braves.
May the Astros break out the bats and take the series!
|
|
|
|
Post by m240 on Apr 15, 2018 12:45:18 GMT -6
Our win probability before the start should be high.
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 15, 2018 14:02:57 GMT -6
Our win probability before the start should be high. Around 74% is what I saw on one website. |
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 15, 2018 14:08:45 GMT -6
One aspect of Gattis's struggles might just be age-related decline in power. Here is the average distance on Gattis's fly balls for each season since 2015:
2015 - 329 ft
2016 - 322 ft
2017 - 315 ft
2018 - 294 ft
So, at the start of the season he is already down 35 ft from his peak in 2015. By the end of this season, how far will he be down? This isn't like twenty years ago when it was more or less accepted to use steroids to reverse this trend.
Of course the consequence of this decline in power is that a lot of his fly balls that used to go for HRs now just get caught deep in the outfield for outs. He must know this, and perhaps he's trying to compensate by watching more pitches in order to draw walks.
|
|
|
|
Post by bannedfan on Apr 15, 2018 15:19:02 GMT -6
He’s gone after 2018.
Curious what the distance is for Altuve in 2018 vs. 2017.
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 15, 2018 15:31:30 GMT -6
He’s gone after 2018. Curious what the distance is for Altuve in 2018 vs. 2017. Jose Altuve 2016 327ft. Jose Altuve 2017 317ft. Jose Altuve 2015 315ft. Jose Altuve 2018 303ft. This is an issue where the "juiced ball" controversy plays in. For Gattis to have his fly ball distance steadily reduced in spite of the juiced ball supposedly helping him out, it really suggests the drop-off in power/bat-speed is significant. It could also just be random statistical noise. Altuve's numbers are based on over 100 FB's for 2015-2017 but this year he has had only 11 fly balls. So like with Gattis, that 303 ft may go up or down as the sample size increases. For some context, here are the AL league averages over the same years: 2018 - 318 ft 2017 - 320 ft 2016 - 319 ft 2015 - 316 ft So one could say that the league average distance on fly balls has been pretty stable over the past few years in the 316 to 320 foot range, with a slight tendency towards increasing over time. That might reflect minor mechanical changes players are making in terms of launch angle, or improvements in physical conditioning, or changes to the baseball itself. In Gattis's case, it shows that whereas he had above-average power in 2015, his fly ball power today is significantly below the league average. |
|
|
|
Post by paastrosfan on Apr 15, 2018 15:32:45 GMT -6
One aspect of Gattis's struggles might just be age-related decline in power. Here is the average distance on Gattis's fly balls for each season since 2015: 2015 - 329 ft 2016 - 322 ft 2017 - 315 ft 2018 - 294 ft So, at the start of the season he is already down 35 ft from his peak in 2015. By the end of this season, how far will he be down? This isn't like twenty years ago when it was more or less accepted to use steroids to reverse this trend. Of course the consequence of this decline in power is that a lot of his fly balls that used to go for HRs now just get caught deep in the outfield for outs. He must know this, and perhaps he's trying to compensate by watching more pitches in order to draw walks. I really see no value in that chart, especially in the case of Gattis. He is mostly a line drive hitter that drives the ball, even his ground balls are usually hit on the line. Some of the ropes that he has put out of the ball parks since joining Houston have been unreal. Especially the rope he hit in Toronto before the All-Star game last season. |
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 15, 2018 15:42:31 GMT -6
The reason I raise the point in Gattis's case is that many fans view his value primarily as that of a home-run hitter. Recently, people have been scratching their heads as to why Gattis hasn't homered in any of his 83 ABs this year (38 in spring training and 45 in the regular season). That is really unexpected for a guy who used to hit one out every 20 ABs or so. It could simply be that he is losing the raw power that gained him that reputation of the Lumberjack Slugger.
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 15, 2018 15:49:21 GMT -6
To rank the Astros players together by this metric, we have for batters with 5 or more fly balls on the season:
1 George Springer 13 341ft.
2 Alex Bregman 14 330ft.
3 Marwin Gonzalez 9 308ft.
4 Jose Altuve 11 303ft.
5 Brian McCann 5 300ft.
6 Evan Gattis 8 294ft.
So, we really only have two players hitting fly balls further than the league average (Springer and Bregman). Altuve and McCann are more line drive hitters, so this stat probably doesn't mean much for them.
As for some of the other guys (like Fisher) who just haven't hit the ball in the air very much, that is its own problem, as too often they are allowing the other team to get easy ground ball outs.
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 15, 2018 15:52:29 GMT -6
Incidentally, Tyler White saw his fly balls travel an average distance of 329 ft last year. I mention him because he is seen as a likely replacement for any current Astros hitters who might fall off a cliff offensively.
White's mark of 329 feet is relevant because he is a hitter who tends to hit line drives and fly balls. That figure puts him above the league average and on a par, so far, with Alex Bregman. Good company.
|
|
|
|
Post by paastrosfan on Apr 15, 2018 15:52:29 GMT -6
The reason I raise the point in Gattis's case is that many fans view his value primarily as that of a home-run hitter. Recently, people have been scratching their heads as to why Gattis hasn't homered in any of his 83 ABs this year (38 in spring training and 45 in the regular season). That is really unexpected for a guy who used to hit one out every 20 ABs or so. It could simply be that he is losing the raw power that gained him that reputation of the Lumberjack Slugger. From his time in Houston Gattis seemed to hit better when he was in the lineup catching. Now most of the reps being split between McCann and Stasi. IMO he might be the kind of player that just cannot come up to the plate four times a game and just hit. He is a big muscular guy that might need to be playing and be moving in a game to be effective. I have played with guys that the same situation occurred. |
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 15, 2018 15:58:26 GMT -6
Today's lineup looks pretty strong:
1. George Springer (R) CF
2. Alex Bregman (R) 3B
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS
5. Josh Reddick (L) RF
6. Yuli Gurriel (R) DH
7. Marwin Gonzalez (S) 1B
8. Brian McCann (L) C
9. Derek Fisher (L) LF
Verlander on the mound
|
|
|
|
Post by m240 on Apr 15, 2018 16:24:32 GMT -6
about as good as it gets for us right now
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 15, 2018 16:33:41 GMT -6
The Tigers have already had 6 games postponed this season. The Twins just had their next 3 games postponed.
Some of these teams are going to be real tired later in the season as they make all of those games up on their previously-scheduled off days and by means of double-headers.
|
|
|
|
Post by bannedfan on Apr 15, 2018 16:43:02 GMT -6
2041 miles from Houston to Seattle. Why is MLB having Houston play Sunday night and then flying all night to Seattle to play tomorrow night? That ranks right up there with the Twins not having a retractable roof.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2018 16:44:24 GMT -6
2041 miles from Houston to Seattle. Why is MLB having Houston play Sunday night and then flying all night to Seattle to play tomorrow night? That ranks right up there with the Twins not having a retractable roof. I didn't even think about that. That is pretty cruddy! |
|
|
|
Post by bannedfan on Apr 15, 2018 16:50:44 GMT -6
2041 miles from Houston to Seattle. Why is MLB having Houston play Sunday night and then flying all night to Seattle to play tomorrow night? That ranks right up there with the Twins not having a retractable roof. I didn't even think about that. That is pretty cruddy! They may get rained out tomorrow night anyway. But yeah, it’s dumb with the extra off days this season. |
|
|
|
Post by unionstation82 on Apr 15, 2018 17:52:34 GMT -6
One aspect of Gattis's struggles might just be age-related decline in power. Here is the average distance on Gattis's fly balls for each season since 2015: 2015 - 329 ft 2016 - 322 ft 2017 - 315 ft 2018 - 294 ft So, at the start of the season he is already down 35 ft from his peak in 2015. By the end of this season, how far will he be down? This isn't like twenty years ago when it was more or less accepted to use steroids to reverse this trend. Of course the consequence of this decline in power is that a lot of his fly balls that used to go for HRs now just get caught deep in the outfield for outs. He must know this, and perhaps he's trying to compensate by watching more pitches in order to draw walks. He’s also slimmer than he used to be. |
|
|
|
Post by unionstation82 on Apr 15, 2018 17:54:40 GMT -6
That ranks right up there with the Twins not having a retractable roof. Why on earth don’t the Twins have a roofed stadium? Have they forgotten why the Metrodome was even built? |
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 15, 2018 18:02:14 GMT -6
Don't look now, but Reymin Guduan is off to a great start in Fresno. Over 7.1 innings, he's allowed no runs and only one hit to go with 6 walks and 11 K's.
Maybe he will simply be the next Jordan Jankowski (i.e. guy with great AAA numbers whose stuff never flies at the major league level).
But he also avoided runs well in spring training so... I am ready to see him given another shot this year, especially given there is no lefty in the bullpen right now.
Swapping Hoyt for Guduan is an easy roster move to make.
|
|
|
|
Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Apr 15, 2018 18:06:33 GMT -6
I hope the boys destroy Bartolo tonight. Let’s get it going, men.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2018 18:13:15 GMT -6
Verlander making quick work in the 1st. Only 10 pitches.
|
|
marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
Posts: 4,358 
Likes: 446
|
Post by marshall on Apr 15, 2018 18:18:24 GMT -6
I'm pulling double duty tonight. Keeping up with the Astros and waiting to snipe an eBay Auction.
|
|
|
|
Post by bannedfan on Apr 15, 2018 18:21:20 GMT -6
That first inning Astro offense>>>>😩😩😩
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2018 18:27:37 GMT -6
Beltre nearly missed a home run that last half inning.
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 15, 2018 18:27:44 GMT -6
It helps Verlander that with some of these new hitters (Kiner-Falefa, Guzman), he's been able to analyze how they approach Cole/Morton and the relievers. So he has a very good idea of how to pitch to them.
|
|
|
|
Post by olpapa on Apr 15, 2018 18:28:19 GMT -6
“Don't look now, but Reymin Guduan is off to a great start in Fresno. Over 7.1 innings, he's allowed no runs and only one hit to go with 6 walks and 11 K's.”
6 walks in 7.1 innings is the number that is and has been standing between Guduan and the big club for a while now.
|
|
marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
Posts: 4,358
Likes: 446
|
Post by marshall on Apr 15, 2018 18:28:35 GMT -6
Two innings of outstanding pitching. Lets get him some run support.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2018 18:32:07 GMT -6
Another inning of bland offense.
|
|
|
|
Post by astrosdoug on Apr 15, 2018 18:32:15 GMT -6
Well it sure looks like a game between two former Cy Young winners
|
|
