talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
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Post by talshill on Aug 2, 2023 16:44:26 GMT -6
I am in favor of the trade. Our window ends in 25 with Valdez and Tucker expiring, or you could even say 24 with Bregman's contract expiring. Go for the win now. How good could Gilbert be IF he works out? Josh Reddick at best? If I were a Mets fan I'd be pissed at the return. I would have demanded Arrighetti as well, at a minimum. I’m not sure the window shuts in ‘25. There are two more drafts, two more FA classes and two more years of trade opportunities between now and then. Crane is used to winning and the Astros make a shit-ton of $. I’ll bet he opens the purse to keep some guys. |
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talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
Posts: 2,015
Likes: 1,115
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Post by talshill on Aug 2, 2023 16:52:11 GMT -6
Abreu is not Verlander. There are always going to be risks. Do you take your risks on a HoFer or on an average player? I'm all about keeping an eye on the future as well, but I just don't believe this deal has hindered that. Gilbert is a potential future All-Star CF. FWIW Dana Brown specifically said he wouldn’t trade any up-the-middle talent (P, SS, 2b, C). So that tells you what he though of Lee as a backstop. He viewed Gilbert as a future average CORNER outfielder. This ain’t Kyle Tucker he traded. |
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Post by m240 on Aug 2, 2023 17:12:51 GMT -6
Verlander costs us less than McCullers and slightly more than Montero. I think we will get more for the next three years out of Verlander than we do both of those guys together. Gilbert is a top 100 prospect but at the back end of that category and only 50% of those guys ever have a meaningful life in the bigs. Only 8% have an all star year. So we did pretty good in this deal.
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 2, 2023 17:43:53 GMT -6
Verlander costs us less than McCullers and slightly more than Montero. I think we will get more for the next three years out of Verlander than we do both of those guys together. Gilbert is a top 100 prospect but at the back end of that category and only 50% of those guys ever have a meaningful life in the bigs. Only 8% have an all star year. So we did pretty good in this deal. Call me crazy but I think McCullers may finally start playing more. He waited two years for this surgery so let’s hope this finally does the trick. |
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Post by m240 on Aug 2, 2023 17:46:54 GMT -6
Verlander costs us less than McCullers and slightly more than Montero. I think we will get more for the next three years out of Verlander than we do both of those guys together. Gilbert is a top 100 prospect but at the back end of that category and only 50% of those guys ever have a meaningful life in the bigs. Only 8% have an all star year. So we did pretty good in this deal. Call me crazy but I think McCullers may finally start playing more. He waited two years for this surgery so let’s hope this finally does the trick. Well lets hope so. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Aug 2, 2023 17:51:19 GMT -6
So what moves would you have made if you were GM in Houston? Would have much preferred someone like Lance Lynn or Jack Flaherty, and another bullpen piece. We need rotation help to get to the post-season. Once there, it's mostly a crapshoot (and JV has never been great in the WS anyway). This feels like an overcorrection. They needed a pickup truck, and went out and took out a second mortgage to get an 18-wheeler. Meanwhile we've got guys like Stanek and Gage in the bullpen still who we really could have used an upgrade over. Who would you have traded for those guys? |
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Post by Saint on Aug 2, 2023 19:05:53 GMT -6
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talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
Posts: 2,015
Likes: 1,115
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Post by talshill on Aug 2, 2023 20:09:46 GMT -6
I think there's too many people trying to figure out what Brown, Dusty, and Crane want, beyond being successful right now. It's hard to say what the "plan" for the future is. What was initially the "plan" likely had to be completely changed when we lost our top picks for multiple years AND we were the best or almost the best team in baseball and got lower draft picks even when we DID get high level picks. It would be virtually impossible to maintain a good farm system with all of that. What we DO know is that we had/have a winning window RIGHT NOW. The best we've ever had and may ever have again. And they are trying to extend that a year or two at a time right now regardless of the weak farm system and the long-term future. I'd love to be a competitive team for another decade, but I am also completely okay with throwing away that future if it means continuing to see a a historic dynasty be successful. If this team wins another pennant or title or two over the next few years, it will be as good a run as we've seen from any dynasty in baseball history. It may not be the 3-peat by the Yankees, and it may not have the catchy name like the Big Red Machine, but it will be as successful or more than those when you look at everything it has encompassed. Better than anything the Braves did. As good as or better than what the Giants did. I'll trade some prospects for that. I agree. The plan has to evolve based on where you are. The 2015 Astros were bolstered by very high draft picks and prospects were their future and life blood. They still hold that position but to a lesser extent. The financial pressures of those days are presumably long gone. They can buy talent now or re-sign their own guys. At the moment they’ve got a good mix of youth and veterans and if those vets were playing up to standard (Abreu, Montero, Bregman and Peña) we’d probably be 8-10 games better in the standings. But I don’t think they’re throwing the future away. We’re still going to draft players, still sign FAs, still extend guys. And I still think their farm is underrated. We’ve got some guys who can play. |
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Post by bearbryant on Aug 2, 2023 21:01:17 GMT -6
The GM being afraid of the field manager IS a cause for concern. Who knows if the GM is afraid of the field manager? That is just someone's opinion... I don't think Brown's afraid of Baker. I think he's cognizant of Crane holding Dusty's opinion in high favor, and navigating that is part of his job |
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Post by Ashitaka on Aug 2, 2023 23:39:47 GMT -6
1. an organization that you can count on to be great every single season. 2. organization that could legitimately compete every year virtually without end. 3. I hope they win the next three WS in part because of him. None of those things happening will make me think this was the right move. 1 and 2 were never going to happen. There are too many random variables and gambles that don’t pay off. As for the third point: So even if the move puts three more trophies in the case it was the wrong move. In other words, it’s better to have a long-term shot at a championship than to actually win it. This is like thinking that it’s better to have a shot at being rich than to actually become rich. “I’m going to give you five million dollars a year for three years. OR you could have a chance at winning five million for the next 10 years.” You chose option B? It can happen if you don't do a bunch of dumb things. The Rays are in it every year with crippling financial problems because they are smart and they stick to it. Will you be able to prove it is THIS move that puts the trophies in the case? That we would not have won them if we traded for another "lesser" starter and kept the top prospects? That's my point. I think we needed a starter. I don't think we needed Verlander specifically. I think they could have filled the need without giving up our top two prospects. My point is simply that success following a decision does not necessarily indicate the decision itself was right or wise or should be repeated. Correlation does not necessarily entail causation. If we win the World Series this year, should we do another Montero or Abreu contract next off-season because things worked out in the end? |
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Post by Ashitaka on Aug 2, 2023 23:42:33 GMT -6
Gilbert is a potential future All-Star CF. FWIW Dana Brown specifically said he wouldn’t trade any up-the-middle talent (P, SS, 2b, C). So that tells you what he though of Lee as a backstop. He viewed Gilbert as a future average CORNER outfielder. This ain’t Kyle Tucker he traded. I don't recall that quote, but if you're right, then I'm concerned about Brown's abilities. He would be in the absolute minority, maybe completely alone, in his thinking that Gilbert can't be at least an average defensive CF, and Lee at least an average receiver with a plus plus arm. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 2, 2023 23:57:31 GMT -6
FWIW Dana Brown specifically said he wouldn’t trade any up-the-middle talent (P, SS, 2b, C). So that tells you what he thought of Lee as a backstop. He viewed Gilbert as a future average CORNER outfielder. This ain’t Kyle Tucker he traded. I don't recall that quote, but if you're right, then I'm concerned about Brown's abilities. He would be in the absolute minority, maybe completely alone, in his thinking that Gilbert can't be at least an average defensive CF, and Lee at least an average receiver with a plus plus arm. Like I said, I don’t think Brown headed the pursuit of Verlander. I think it’s just a case of listening to the guy who signs your checks. |
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Post by Ashitaka on Aug 3, 2023 1:24:19 GMT -6
I don't recall that quote, but if you're right, then I'm concerned about Brown's abilities. He would be in the absolute minority, maybe completely alone, in his thinking that Gilbert can't be at least an average defensive CF, and Lee at least an average receiver with a plus plus arm. Like I said, I don’t think Brown headed the pursuit of Verlander. I think it’s just a case of listening to the guy who signs your checks. I'd like to think so, but Crane said that Brown "ran into [Crane's] office" as soon as the Scherzer deal was announced and how much money New York was covering. Crane made it sound like Brown brought it up first because he thought the Mets might cover enough money to make Crane accept it. |
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Post by Ashitaka on Aug 3, 2023 1:37:44 GMT -6
Would have much preferred someone like Lance Lynn or Jack Flaherty, and another bullpen piece. We need rotation help to get to the post-season. Once there, it's mostly a crapshoot (and JV has never been great in the WS anyway). This feels like an overcorrection. They needed a pickup truck, and went out and took out a second mortgage to get an 18-wheeler. Meanwhile we've got guys like Stanek and Gage in the bullpen still who we really could have used an upgrade over. Who would you have traded for those guys? For starters I would not have held on to Julks as if he were more than a backup outfielder with no special tools (CF defense, elite speed, power, left handed, etc.) But setting that aside... Flaherty for example, the Cardinals got a future utility infielder with no power, a back-end-at-best starter, and a 19 year old lottery ticket arm. The two arms are not even ranked in their top 20 prospects. IMO a package with one of Colin Barber, Colton Gordon, or Spencer Arrighetti, could have easily matched or exceeded that return. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Aug 3, 2023 8:24:48 GMT -6
I think we should send Meyers Down and Call up Jon Singleton and see what he can do for a 20 game stretch!
Just see what's up with him.
I understand We uave all seen stuff like this before. But what if he may have learned something?
Plus we have CF covered. Dubon and in a pinch Tucker.
Julks isn't doing well at the moment either he could be the guy to send down aswell. Maybe one of those guys can go down see how they act with a demotion.
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Post by Ashitaka on Aug 3, 2023 8:31:50 GMT -6
I think we should send Meyers Down and Call up Jon Singleton and see what he can do for a 20 game stretch! Just see what's up with him. I understand We uave all seen stuff like this before. But what if he may have learned something? Plus we have CF covered. Dubon and in a pinch Tucker. Julks isn't doing well at the moment either he could be the guy to send down aswell. Maybe one of those guys can go down see how they act with a demotion. I'll keep Meyers who can actually play CF instead of Julks who is 3-for-54 over nearly the last month now. |
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Post by kyledriver1980 on Aug 3, 2023 8:36:29 GMT -6
I think we should send Meyers Down and Call up Jon Singleton and see what he can do for a 20 game stretch! Just see what's up with him. I understand We uave all seen stuff like this before. But what if he may have learned something? Plus we have CF covered. Dubon and in a pinch Tucker. Julks isn't doing well at the moment either he could be the guy to send down aswell. Maybe one of those guys can go down see how they act with a demotion. I'll keep Meyers who can actually play CF instead of Julks who is 3-for-54 over nearly the last month now. Your man crush on Meyers is astonishing. I want that Kool-Aid you've been drinking all season. This isn't a defend Julks post. I agree if you had to send down Meyers vs. Julks, I'd send down Julks because Meyers can be a late inning defensive replacement. I also agree Meyers is a very capable center fielder in tracking down and catching balls. However, forget it if a single is hit in the direction of Meyers, because that is an automatic double for the other team with his noodle of an arm. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 3, 2023 8:44:20 GMT -6
I think we should send Meyers Down and Call up Jon Singleton and see what he can do for a 20 game stretch! Just see what's up with him. I understand We uave all seen stuff like this before. But what if he may have learned something? Plus we have CF covered. Dubon and in a pinch Tucker. Julks isn't doing well at the moment either he could be the guy to send down aswell. Maybe one of those guys can go down see how they act with a demotion. If we're sending someone down to give Singleton a shot, it needs to be Julks. Meyers has looked better recently and his defense doesn't slump. I still think Julks could be a solid LFer for cheap, but Meyers is the better value right now. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 3, 2023 8:56:12 GMT -6
TBH this really just isn't true for me. I know every single person will disagree, but this is how I am wired. I value building an organization that you can count on to be great every single season. This is a move that doesn't line up with that. That was the stated goal when Crane first bought the club and they tore everything down. They were going to build an organization that could legitimately compete every year virtually without end. We were half a game out of first place. We needed a starter. We didn't need Verlander. I feel like Crane and the front office is starting to forget the original goal. It's all about "keeping the window open" now. I call half a game out of first despite a ton of injuries the window being wide open. I hope he does well. I will enjoy him on the team. I hope they win the next three WS in part because of him. None of those things happening will make me think this was the right move. Read your last 2 sentences, and if you still agree with them, go to the mirror and slap yourself in the face Yeah, that was a bit much. |
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Post by bearbryant on Aug 3, 2023 9:03:34 GMT -6
Absolutely ridiculous if true. Julks is a 4th outfielder who can't play CF. They gave him a shot, lots of looks, and he actually performed for a little while to raise his stock. It was the best case scenario. But then they hold him. Imagine actually thinking they need to hang on to him but Gilbert is fair game. Has Dusty written all over it IMO; he saw Julks on a hot streak and thinks he's a future star now. I honestly don't know how anyone can not be concerned with this front office. I would actually be more concerned if I thought it was Brown who liked Julks so much, rather than Baker. Cause then I look at his draft class and start to wonder if the kid's getting a shot next season just because he's from the area. For now I'll give him the benefit of the doubt though |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 3, 2023 10:59:09 GMT -6
I'll keep Meyers who can actually play CF instead of Julks who is 3-for-54 over nearly the last month now. Your man crush on Meyers is astonishing. I want that Kool-Aid you've been drinking all season. This isn't a defend Julks post. I agree if you had to send down Meyers vs. Julks, I'd send down Julks because Meyers can be a late inning defensive replacement. I also agree Meyers is a very capable center fielder in tracking down and catching balls. However, forget it if a single is hit in the direction of Meyers, because that is an automatic double for the other team with his noodle of an arm. I’m not a fan of Meyers’s arm or hitting, but even he or Maldy can outdo 3-for-54. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 3, 2023 11:00:42 GMT -6
Absolutely ridiculous if true. Julks is a 4th outfielder who can't play CF. They gave him a shot, lots of looks, and he actually performed for a little while to raise his stock. It was the best case scenario. But then they hold him. Imagine actually thinking they need to hang on to him but Gilbert is fair game. Has Dusty written all over it IMO; he saw Julks on a hot streak and thinks he's a future star now. I honestly don't know how anyone can not be concerned with this front office. I would actually be more concerned if I thought it was Brown who liked Julks so much, rather than Baker. Cause then I look at his draft class and start to wonder if the kid's getting a shot next season just because he's from the area. For now I'll give him the benefit of the doubt though I don’t know if this is a Houston thing, but the whole “play the local kid” idea is so unimportant. Who cares where a player is from? Can he play well? It didn’t matter with regards to Clemens and Pettitte because they were star-level pitchers. No one would cry over Julks playing elsewhere. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 3, 2023 11:36:31 GMT -6
I can see where Ash is coming from. Getting Verlander is a good boost to this beleaguered rotation, but he’s valid in worrying about the future of the team. The team is getting older and older, and the farm keeps getting worse and worse. It’s unlikely that they will keep Tucker, and I don’t see Crane trading him. They don’t have Gilbert to hope on anymore. So, Bregman may go. Altuve might not be extended past this deal. They’re in a position where they see Julks as valuable. It’s almost as if they have to win this year to make the deal worth it.
People are excited about the money saved on Verlander as if they’re the ones footing the bill. There are no draft pick penalties for going over the cap so this team will only be held back by how much Crane wants to spend, and the less he wants to spend, you see more trades of top prospects.
I hope it works out for the short run because the long term state of the team needs major help from Dana Brown.
And please, no more Dusty. The team just doesn’t need him.
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Post by bearbryant on Aug 3, 2023 11:54:54 GMT -6
I would actually be more concerned if I thought it was Brown who liked Julks so much, rather than Baker. Cause then I look at his draft class and start to wonder if the kid's getting a shot next season just because he's from the area. For now I'll give him the benefit of the doubt though I don’t know if this is a Houston thing, but the whole “play the local kid” idea is so unimportant. Who cares where a player is from? Can he play well? It didn’t matter with regards to Clemens and Pettitte because they were star-level pitchers. No one would cry over Julks playing elsewhere. I get that some are fans of it, but whether they're local shouldn't be part of the algorithm IMO when acquiring talent. If Brown approached the draft that way and it was a coincidence several were from greater Houston-Galveston-Brazoria, then that's different |
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Post by Saint on Aug 3, 2023 12:04:03 GMT -6
I can see where Ash is coming from. Getting Verlander is a good boost to this beleaguered rotation, but he’s valid in worrying about the future of the team. The team is getting older and older, and the farm keeps getting worse and worse. It’s unlikely that they will keep Tucker, and I don’t see Crane trading him. They don’t have Gilbert to hope on anymore. So, Bregman may go. Altuve might not be extended past this deal. They’re in a position where they see Julks as valuable. It’s almost as if they have to win this year to make the deal worth it. People are excited about the money saved on Verlander as if they’re the ones footing the bill. There are no draft pick penalties for going over the cap so this team will only be held back by how much Crane wants to spend, and the less he wants to spend, you see more trades of top prospects. I hope it works out for the short run because the long term state of the team needs major help from Dana Brown. And please, no more Dusty. We have at least one more year of free agency, offseason deals, in-season trades, and a draft before we're set to potentially lose any of our major pieces. And, if we do lose some of our top players to free agency then, we'll get some high level compensation picks. Either way we're not completely losing out. Is it very possible that after next year we need to spend a couple seasons being more of a mid-level team while we re-tool? Sure. But it's not like we'll need to completely rebuild again, and we'll have watched a dynasty for a decade. All teams go through at least small re-tooling/rebuilding phases. I consider the Cardinals one of the best franchises in baseball when you look at their history, success, fanbase, ex-players, etc. all with never being a top money spender. But even the Cardinals have gone through rough patches. There is no perfect approach at running a franchise that works forever. In the sports world you mostly get two choices when you're in the window we're in: A. Play it super safe and stay a pretty good team for a long while. B. Push the envelope and work at being an elite team for a shorter period that people remember for decades. Personally, after decades of mediocrity, I'm all for watching this elite team do things that we'll likely never see them do again in our lifetime. I don't think a lot of people still fully appreciate just how good of a team we've gotten to watch the last several years and how thankful we should be. Crane and co. won't always make all the right moves, but what they've brought to Houston is dynamic, competitive, and f*cking fun. We're no longer a team that fans on the west and east coasts barely think of. We're now THE team they talk about the most. We may not have the fanbase of the Yankees and never will, but when people talk about Major League Baseball...the Astros are one of the teams they're talking about the most. They all "want Houston," and we've f*cking given it to them. Time to make JV, Altuve, and Bregman, 3-time champions this year, and then work on doing it again next year even if we have to trade more prospects. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 3, 2023 12:08:33 GMT -6
I can see where Ash is coming from. Getting Verlander is a good boost to this beleaguered rotation, but he’s valid in worrying about the future of the team. The team is getting older and older, and the farm keeps getting worse and worse. It’s unlikely that they will keep Tucker, and I don’t see Crane trading him. They don’t have Gilbert to hope on anymore. So, Bregman may go. Altuve might not be extended past this deal. They’re in a position where they see Julks as valuable. It’s almost as if they have to win this year to make the deal worth it. People are excited about the money saved on Verlander as if they’re the ones footing the bill. There are no draft pick penalties for going over the cap so this team will only be held back by how much Crane wants to spend, and the less he wants to spend, you see more trades of top prospects. I hope it works out for the short run because the long term state of the team needs major help from Dana Brown. And please, no more Dusty. We have at least one more year of free agency, offseason deals, in-season trades, and a draft before we're set to potentially lose any of our major pieces. And, if we do lose some of our top players to free agency then, we'll get some high level compensation picks. Either way we're not completely losing out. Is it very possible that after next year we need to spend a couple seasons being more of a mid-level team while we re-tool? Sure. But it's not like we'll need to completely rebuild again, and we'll have watched a dynasty for a decade. All teams go through at least small re-tooling/rebuilding phases. I consider the Cardinals one of the best franchises in baseball when you look at their history, success, fanbase, ex-players, etc. all with never being a top money spender. But even the Cardinals have gone through rough patches. There is no perfect approach at running a franchise that works forever. In the sports world you mostly get two choices when you're in the window we're in: A. Play it super safe and stay a pretty good team for a long while. B. Push the envelope and work at being an elite team for a shorter period that people remember for decades. Personally, after decades of mediocrity, I'm all for watching this elite team do things that we'll likely never see them do again in our lifetime. I don't think a lot of people still fully appreciate just how good of a team we've gotten to watch the last several years and how thankful we should be. Crane and co. won't always make all the right moves, but what they've brought to Houston is dynamic, competitive, and f*cking fun. We're no longer a team that fans on the west and east coasts barely think of. We're now THE team they talk about the most. We may not have the fanbase of the Yankees and never will, but when people talk about Major League Baseball...the Astros are one of the teams they're talking about the most. They all "want Houston," and we've f*cking given it to them. Time to make JV, Altuve, and Bregman, 3-time champions this year, and then work on doing it again next year even if we have to trade more prospects. For the record, I’m excited that Verlander is back because this rotation desperately needed help. However, losing Gilbert makes me worried because I don’t see Tucker staying here long term. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Aug 3, 2023 12:24:33 GMT -6
We send down Julks for either Corey Dickerson who was released by the Nats. Or bring up Singleton and see what he has for alittle while.
Also Andrew Vazquez is still avalaible as a LHP out of the pen he wouldnt be bad
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Post by thomasj13 on Aug 3, 2023 12:39:49 GMT -6
Your man crush on Meyers is astonishing. I want that Kool-Aid you've been drinking all season. This isn't a defend Julks post. I agree if you had to send down Meyers vs. Julks, I'd send down Julks because Meyers can be a late inning defensive replacement. I also agree Meyers is a very capable center fielder in tracking down and catching balls. However, forget it if a single is hit in the direction of Meyers, because that is an automatic double for the other team with his noodle of an arm. I’m not a fan of Meyers’s arm or hitting, but even he or Maldy can outdo 3-for-54. Dang, you went all machete on Julks |
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Post by thomasj13 on Aug 3, 2023 12:41:26 GMT -6
We have at least one more year of free agency, offseason deals, in-season trades, and a draft before we're set to potentially lose any of our major pieces. And, if we do lose some of our top players to free agency then, we'll get some high level compensation picks. Either way we're not completely losing out. Is it very possible that after next year we need to spend a couple seasons being more of a mid-level team while we re-tool? Sure. But it's not like we'll need to completely rebuild again, and we'll have watched a dynasty for a decade. All teams go through at least small re-tooling/rebuilding phases. I consider the Cardinals one of the best franchises in baseball when you look at their history, success, fanbase, ex-players, etc. all with never being a top money spender. But even the Cardinals have gone through rough patches. There is no perfect approach at running a franchise that works forever. In the sports world you mostly get two choices when you're in the window we're in: A. Play it super safe and stay a pretty good team for a long while. B. Push the envelope and work at being an elite team for a shorter period that people remember for decades. Personally, after decades of mediocrity, I'm all for watching this elite team do things that we'll likely never see them do again in our lifetime. I don't think a lot of people still fully appreciate just how good of a team we've gotten to watch the last several years and how thankful we should be. Crane and co. won't always make all the right moves, but what they've brought to Houston is dynamic, competitive, and f*cking fun. We're no longer a team that fans on the west and east coasts barely think of. We're now THE team they talk about the most. We may not have the fanbase of the Yankees and never will, but when people talk about Major League Baseball...the Astros are one of the teams they're talking about the most. They all "want Houston," and we've f*cking given it to them. Time to make JV, Altuve, and Bregman, 3-time champions this year, and then work on doing it again next year even if we have to trade more prospects. For the record, I’m excited that Verlander is back because this rotation desperately needed help. However, losing Gilbert makes me worried because I don’t see Tucker staying here long term. I think Tucker will be re-signed |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 3, 2023 12:47:47 GMT -6
For the record, I’m excited that Verlander is back because this rotation desperately needed help. However, losing Gilbert makes me worried because I don’t see Tucker staying here long term. I think Tucker will be re-signed If that happens, then I couldn’t care less about Gilbert. |
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