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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Dec 22, 2023 10:38:15 GMT -6
On Dec. 20, the Astros gave out a minor league contract to a struggling journeyman reliever, Tayler Scott, their fourth minor league contract of the offseason. Scott joins Wander Suero, Brailyn Marquez, and Kervin Castro, all relief pitchers, as the newest members of the Astros farm system.
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Post by Ashitaka on Dec 22, 2023 10:54:20 GMT -6
Chandler Rome of The Athletic today:
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Graduations, lost draft picks and a deluge of trade deadline deals have gutted the Astros’ farm system. Outside publications peg it among the five worst in the sport, devoid of the kind of top-end talent that usually appears in top-100 industry rankings.
Perception sometimes does not match production. The team has produced a top-five finisher in American League Rookie of the Year voting during nine of the past 10 seasons, including Yainer Diaz’s fifth-place showing in 2023.
Houston could enter spring training without a top-100 prospect, but dismissing the system entirely is unwise. J.P. France, Chas McCormick and Framber Valdez are among the onetime unheralded prospects who helped propel the 2023 Astros to the precipice of a pennant. The team’s apparent aversion to exceeding the luxury tax may only test prospect depth further.
Conversations with Astros officials and a glance at the team’s current roster construction produced this list of six prospects most likely to debut during the 2024 season and, perhaps, continue that aforementioned run on Rookie of the Year voting.
Spencer Arrighetti, RHP
After needing four starts to find himself, Arrighetti authored a breakout 2023 season that should make him Houston’s most major-league-ready pitching prospect entering spring training.
Opponents slashed .196/.303/.339 against Arrighetti during his final 24 appearances, 15 of which arrived in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League for Triple-A Sugar Land.
After yielding 18 earned runs in his first four starts of the minor-league season, Arrighetti allowed 43 across his next 24 outings — a 3.52 ERA that cemented him as a legitimate major-league prospect.
Provided he stays healthy, Arrighetti is the first in line for a spot start or a longer audition if a member of the rotation gets injured. The team had conversations about bringing him up last September, but a combination of the Astros’ precarious playoff situation and Arrighetti getting hit in the forearm by a comebacker scuttled it.
Kenedy Corona, OF
Corona is the only player Houston added to its 40-man roster before the Rule 5 Draft, which demonstrates how much he’s risen in the organization’s hierarchy. Still, of the six prospects listed here, Corona is perhaps the furthest from contributing at the major-league level.
Including Corona is almost entirely a byproduct of his place on the 40-man roster, which makes it far easier for the Astros to summon him in an emergency. Corona is an elite defensive center fielder, but must refine his offensive approach to solidify himself as a major-league player.
Curtailing strikeouts should be Corona’s foremost objective. He punched out 136 times in 117 games last season between High A and Double A. Corona had a 20-homer season at Double-A Corpus Christi and stole 31 bases, but posted just a .325 on-base percentage with 127 strikeouts.
But if expected center fielder Jake Meyers struggles or is injured and Houston’s carousel at the position continues, Corona could profile as an in-season stopgap or insurance policy while the club contemplates its next move.
“The defense is pretty special. We really like the defense,” general manager Dana Brown said at the winter meetings. “He’s still pretty young. I think he’s a down-the-road everyday guy. I think it’s going to take a little time. But we certainly value the middle-of-the-field defense with (the) upside he has. We feel pretty good about it.”
Joey Loperfido, UTIL
Perhaps no position player prospect increased his stock more in 2023 than Loperfido, the former seventh-round pick who earned two in-season promotions and finished the year in Triple-A Sugar Land.
Loperfido started games at five positions: first base, second base and all three outfield spots. He slugged .548 with a .940 OPS in Double A and ended his season with a 32-game cameo at Triple-A Sugar Land. Loperfido’s batting average and contact rate decreased in Triple A, two traits he’ll need to rebound at the beginning of 2024.
That Loperfido hits left-handed and can move around the field will only increase his value to the major-league team. Michael Brantley’s departure leaves just three true left-handed hitters on the team’s 40-man roster: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Jon Singleton.
Singleton should begin the season on the major-league roster, but he is out of minor-league options and slashed .167/.258/.204 in his final 62 plate appearances last season. Singleton does not boast Loperfido’s defensive versatility, either. If Loperfido produces to begin the minor-league season, it’s not difficult to envision a scenario where he could add balance and a boost to the big-league bench.
Jacob Melton, OF
Brown resisted moving Melton at last season’s trade deadline, instead packaging Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in the deal for Justin Verlander. In the aftermath, some inside the Astros organization said Melton ranked ahead of both Gilbert and Clifford in the team’s internal prospect valuations and rankings.
Expecting them to say otherwise is foolish, but it’s clear Melton is the most ballyhooed prospect remaining in an otherwise barren farm system. The second-round pick should be the team’s top prospect when all outside publications begin publishing their rankings and — perhaps — the long-term answer Houston has been searching for in center field.
“He’s got a chance to be special. He was asked for in almost every trade talk — all teams were asking for him. That’s the one guy I was afraid to give away,” Brown told a team-run podcast this winter. “This guy has a chance to be a stud. If we can just clean up his approach a little bit, he’s got a chance to be really good. Really exciting player.”
Melton missed some time last season with a hamstring injury and has taken just 56 plate appearances above High A, meaning a strong start to his 2024 season is mandatory to make a major-league call-up a reality. Melton stole 46 bases, slugged .467 and sported an .801 OPS in 450 plate appearances across High A and Double A.
Will Wagner, INF
Last spring, no other Astros 2021 draftee earned an invitation to major-league spring training, where Wagner impressed the coaching staff with his makeup and aggressive offensive approach. There were whispers Wagner, the son of former Houston closer Billy Wagner, could challenge for a spot on the major-league bench toward the end of the 2023 season.
Wagner underwent hamate bone surgery in June to end that discussion. He returned to affiliated ball in August and ended his season with a six-game cameo at Triple-A Sugar Land, during which he went 15-for-26.
Wagner slashed .337/.420/.518, worked 35 walks and struck out just 50 times in 287 plate appearances across three levels last season. Almost all of Wagner’s value is tied to his bat, but the organization exposed him to first base, third base and second base, producing the type of versatility sought at the major-league level.
Wagner and Loperfido are in similar positions. Both hit left-handed, play all over the field and could plug holes on the Astros’ major-league roster. Minor-league production may determine which one gets the first call.
Forrest Whitley, RHP
It’s now or never for Whitley, who was once the top pitching prospect in all of baseball yet whose stock has plummeted amid a rash of injuries, ineffectiveness and a 50-game drug suspension before the 2018 season. Since 2019, Whitley has a 7.01 ERA in 129 2/3 innings of affiliated ball.
Whitley’s Astros tenure has now spanned four farm directors and three general managers, the last of whom remains bullish on the big right-hander’s potential. During the MLB Winter Meetings, Brown mentioned Whitley — without prompt — as an internal option for the team’s major-league bullpen.
Whitley has spent his entire professional career as a starter, but it’s clear Houston wants to extract any value it can from a pitcher in whom it has already invested $3.15 million. Converting him to a reliever is the easiest way to do so in 2024, especially for a team with a starting pitching surplus. Brown wanted to try Whitley in the big-league bullpen last season, too, but his recovery from a lat strain stalled, making that impossible.
Last month, Brown said Whitley is healthy — and an Instagram video of him touching 98 mph this offseason would seem to reinforce that. Whitley is expected to receive a fourth minor-league option year, Brown said, extending his stint on the 40-man roster for at least one more season.
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talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
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Post by talshill on Dec 22, 2023 13:13:18 GMT -6
Losing the draft picks hurt tremendously; it’ll take years to recover unless they get lucky and come up with multiple starters from a couple of drafts. The system is weak but the goal isn’t necessarily to have a strong farm (as much as we all want one); the goal is to win championships. Trading Framber at this point MIGHT shore up the farm (because anything they get will be a lottery ticket) but it would definitely hurt the short-term goal of a WS title. They let Springer and Correa walk because it would have been asinine to trade a starting CF or starting SS during a championship run. Springer was never going to re-sign with Houston and Correa snubbed more money than he was worth to leave.
We didn’t “get nothing for them”, we got a championship. We got another one largely because Valdez was lights-out in the 2022 playoffs. He’s got the potential to do it again. It would be ironically hilarious to watch the Astros miss the playoffs while Valdez wins a WS with another team. But hey, at least we’d have a couple of maybe minor leaguers to show for it.
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Post by unionstation82 on Dec 22, 2023 14:12:56 GMT -6
Losing the draft picks hurt tremendously; it’ll take years to recover unless they get lucky and come up with multiple starters from a couple of drafts. The system is weak but the goal isn’t necessarily to have a strong farm (as much as we all want one); the goal is to win championships. Trading Framber at this point MIGHT shore up the farm (because anything they get will be a lottery ticket) but it would definitely hurt the short-term goal of a WS title. They let Springer and Correa walk because it would have been asinine to trade a starting CF or starting SS during a championship run. Springer was never going to re-sign with Houston and Correa snubbed more money than he was worth to leave. We didn’t “get nothing for them”, we got a championship. We got another one largely because Valdez was lights-out in the 2022 playoffs. He’s got the potential to do it again. It would be ironically hilarious to watch the Astros miss the playoffs while Valdez wins a WS with another team. But hey, at least we’d have a couple of maybe minor leaguers to show for it. The core is aging with less and less talent flowing in through the farm system. They got championships because of talent amassed through the draft. All elements of the Core Four began as minor league prospects: Altuve, Bregman, Correa, and Springer. Framber is an ace. He’s also a guy who melts down in the first inning. Seeing as what you said is the reality, that the farm needs help because of the punishment, it needs a shot in the arm. If what they reported is true and that there are several suitors for Framber, they might as well go for the best offer and trade him to add reinforcements to the minor leagues seeing as how they generally let players walk in free agency. I haven’t always sung the praises of Bregman, but the fact of the matter is they don’t have a lauded enough prospect to replace what he offers: the best eye on the team, the most solid infield defense, and 20 HR/100 RBI ability. That’s what makes him a valuable enough asset to re-sign. If the goal is to win championships, they maybe should’ve added a free agent bat to bolster the lineup (since Bregman is headed out in ‘25) instead of talking up a player they criticized Click for liking in Jake Meyers. They also should fortify a bullpen that’s losing Maton, Stanek, and Neris while leaning on Montero and Pressly. The goal isn’t to impress everyone with having the best farm system. The goal with the farm is to have capable replacements when the team doesn’t want to pay market value to keep its own players. It also doesn’t hurt to have great prospects in case the team wants to trade for talent who can help the major league team. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Dec 22, 2023 14:27:38 GMT -6
have a couple of maybe minor leaguers to show for it That is all Ashitaka cares about. All Unionstation cares about is money that isn't spent (he thinks the owner shouldn't have a limit on his spending) even on players who are not worth it (ie. his man crush Correa). |
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Post by thomasj13 on Dec 22, 2023 17:29:26 GMT -6
Losing the draft picks hurt tremendously; it’ll take years to recover unless they get lucky and come up with multiple starters from a couple of drafts. The system is weak but the goal isn’t necessarily to have a strong farm (as much as we all want one); the goal is to win championships. Trading Framber at this point MIGHT shore up the farm (because anything they get will be a lottery ticket) but it would definitely hurt the short-term goal of a WS title. They let Springer and Correa walk because it would have been asinine to trade a starting CF or starting SS during a championship run. Springer was never going to re-sign with Houston and Correa snubbed more money than he was worth to leave. We didn’t “get nothing for them”, we got a championship. We got another one largely because Valdez was lights-out in the 2022 playoffs. He’s got the potential to do it again. It would be ironically hilarious to watch the Astros miss the playoffs while Valdez wins a WS with another team. But hey, at least we’d have a couple of maybe minor leaguers to show for it. Talshill you might not belong on this board, you post too much common sense |
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Post by unionstation82 on Dec 22, 2023 17:59:02 GMT -6
have a couple of maybe minor leaguers to show for it That is all Ashitaka cares about. All Unionstation cares about is money that isn't spent (he thinks the owner shouldn't have a limit on his spending) even on players who are not worth it (ie. his man crush Correa). Pfff everyone has a man-crush on Crane here. The man could shoot Altuve and people will say, “Two championships!” |
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Post by thomasj13 on Dec 22, 2023 19:26:23 GMT -6
That is all Ashitaka cares about. All Unionstation cares about is money that isn't spent (he thinks the owner shouldn't have a limit on his spending) even on players who are not worth it (ie. his man crush Correa). Pfff everyone has a man-crush on Crane here. The man could shoot Altuve and people will say, “Two championships!” Crane 2 Championships >>>>> McLane use of the word Champions 2 Million Times without ever being a Champion |
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Post by unionstation82 on Dec 22, 2023 20:37:35 GMT -6
Pfff everyone has a man-crush on Crane here. The man could shoot Altuve and people will say, “Two championships!” Crane 2 Championships >>>>> McLane use of the word Champions 2 Million Times without ever being a Champion On that, I’ll agree. |
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talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
Posts: 2,015
Likes: 1,115
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Post by talshill on Dec 22, 2023 22:13:21 GMT -6
Losing the draft picks hurt tremendously; it’ll take years to recover unless they get lucky and come up with multiple starters from a couple of drafts. The system is weak but the goal isn’t necessarily to have a strong farm (as much as we all want one); the goal is to win championships. Trading Framber at this point MIGHT shore up the farm (because anything they get will be a lottery ticket) but it would definitely hurt the short-term goal of a WS title. They let Springer and Correa walk because it would have been asinine to trade a starting CF or starting SS during a championship run. Springer was never going to re-sign with Houston and Correa snubbed more money than he was worth to leave. We didn’t “get nothing for them”, we got a championship. We got another one largely because Valdez was lights-out in the 2022 playoffs. He’s got the potential to do it again. It would be ironically hilarious to watch the Astros miss the playoffs while Valdez wins a WS with another team. But hey, at least we’d have a couple of maybe minor leaguers to show for it. The core is aging with less and less talent flowing in through the farm system. They got championships because of talent amassed through the draft. All elements of the Core Four began as minor league prospects: Altuve, Bregman, Correa, and Springer. Framber is an ace. He’s also a guy who melts down in the first inning. Seeing as what you said is the reality, that the farm needs help because of the punishment, it needs a shot in the arm. If what they reported is true and that there are several suitors for Framber, they might as well go for the best offer and trade him to add reinforcements to the minor leagues seeing as how they generally let players walk in free agency. I haven’t always sung the praises of Bregman, but the fact of the matter is they don’t have a lauded enough prospect to replace what he offers: the best eye on the team, the most solid infield defense, and 20 HR/100 RBI ability. That’s what makes him a valuable enough asset to re-sign. If the goal is to win championships, they maybe should’ve added a free agent bat to bolster the lineup (since Bregman is headed out in ‘25) instead of talking up a player they criticized Click for liking in Jake Meyers. They also should fortify a bullpen that’s losing Maton, Stanek, and Neris while leaning on Montero and Pressly. The goal isn’t to impress everyone with having the best farm system. The goal with the farm is to have capable replacements when the team doesn’t want to pay market value to keep its own players. It also doesn’t hurt to have great prospects in case the team wants to trade for talent who can help the major league team. Yes, the core is aging. Yes, they won titles via drafting players. I’d like to point out that the reason they got all those high draft picks is because they were losing 100+ games perennially. Is that what you want to return to? No? Then we can’t rebuild via the draft alone picking in the bottom 3-4 slots every round. So the next move is international signings. It’s my understanding that they’re in the mix for the stud Cuban guy who’s just been declared a FA. It’s also how they got some of the better players we’ve had. Next is trades. Who replaces Framber for the next two seasons? And what do we get for him? Trading a relatively known asset for unknown potential is very risky. The flameout rate for minor leaguers, even blue-chip players, is extremely high. When he’s “on” Framber is the best SP we have. Plus we control him for two more seasons. Why would we trade our potential ace when we intend to win a WS this year? Those young studs you guys assume we’ll get in return is just that: an assumption. Hope is not a plan. Finally we can use free agency and extensions. Houston’s current payroll is about $192M. The first penalties begin at $237M which leaves them $45M to play with. Add to that Tucker and Valdez are estimated to receive $13M each in arbitration. Urquidy, Dubon, McCormick, Peña, Garcia, etc. will get another $20M. Which bumps them just over the tax threshold or around $238M. They’re maxed out for pre-tax signings. Soon they’ll need to do something about retaining or losing Altuve, Tucker, Bregman and Valdez. They can go up to $40M over but they’ll pay a 12.5% tax on the overage, or up to an additional $5M. $40-60M over it jumps to 42.5%, or up to an additional $25.5M. Over $60M over and it’s a 60% penalty. Those penalties get worse the longer you’re over the tax up to and including draft pick loss. Look, we all want the Astros to win, we all want more quality young players, we all want to keep our studs and we all want to keep challenging for WS titles. It doesn’t make sense to me to start trading off known commodities like Bregman and Valdez, who can definitely help you win a WS NOW vs. trading for prospects who MIGHT be able to help you win a WS “someday”. |
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talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
Posts: 2,015
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Post by talshill on Dec 22, 2023 22:20:34 GMT -6
I agree with something I heard Dave Ramsey say once: “If you want to know how to have a successful marriage you talk to someone who’s done it and find out how they did it. You don’t listen to someone who’s been divorced 3 times and wrote a book. If you want to accumulate money you talk to someone who’s done it and find out how they did it. You don’t take financial advice from your broke brother-in-law”. There are some book writers and brother-in-laws on this board.
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Post by Ashitaka on Dec 22, 2023 23:38:14 GMT -6
The core is aging with less and less talent flowing in through the farm system. They got championships because of talent amassed through the draft. All elements of the Core Four began as minor league prospects: Altuve, Bregman, Correa, and Springer. Framber is an ace. He’s also a guy who melts down in the first inning. Seeing as what you said is the reality, that the farm needs help because of the punishment, it needs a shot in the arm. If what they reported is true and that there are several suitors for Framber, they might as well go for the best offer and trade him to add reinforcements to the minor leagues seeing as how they generally let players walk in free agency. I haven’t always sung the praises of Bregman, but the fact of the matter is they don’t have a lauded enough prospect to replace what he offers: the best eye on the team, the most solid infield defense, and 20 HR/100 RBI ability. That’s what makes him a valuable enough asset to re-sign. If the goal is to win championships, they maybe should’ve added a free agent bat to bolster the lineup (since Bregman is headed out in ‘25) instead of talking up a player they criticized Click for liking in Jake Meyers. They also should fortify a bullpen that’s losing Maton, Stanek, and Neris while leaning on Montero and Pressly. The goal isn’t to impress everyone with having the best farm system. The goal with the farm is to have capable replacements when the team doesn’t want to pay market value to keep its own players. It also doesn’t hurt to have great prospects in case the team wants to trade for talent who can help the major league team. Finally we can use free agency and extensions. But the whole point of all of this is because Crane refuses to do that. He seemingly won't give fair market to anyone. If he were, do you think we would be wanting to see Framber moved? We're looking in that direction out of desperation. To this point Crane hasn't even shown a real willingness to replace the relievers we lost. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Dec 23, 2023 3:39:43 GMT -6
I agree with something I heard Dave Ramsey say once: “If you want to know how to have a successful marriage you talk to someone who’s done it and find out how they did it. You don’t listen to someone who’s been divorced 3 times and wrote a book. If you want to accumulate money you talk to someone who’s done it and find out how they did it. You don’t take financial advice from your broke brother-in-law”. There are some book writers and brother-in-laws on this board. Hope is not a plan but they engage in that every time they let a player walk. Look, if the farm were bursting at the seams in talent, I’d be more okay with letting star players walk, but most metrics dictate that the minor leagues are in dire straits. The only reason to trade Framber is to get some sort of jump start in the rebuilding process. If there are several suitors as reports say, they might as well trade him for the highest bidder. I don’t believe his value increases if they delay doing so. The championship window could still be open, but they would have to lowball Altuve or Bregman to make it happen judging by the numbers. They’re not winning anything without keeping both of them unless they magically replace one of them with star-level talent. |
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Post by Ashitaka on Dec 23, 2023 19:38:31 GMT -6
Padres just gave five years to a reliever who has never pitched in the Majors and the chances that the Astros ever sign a Japanese player are officially zero now.
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talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
Posts: 2,015
Likes: 1,115
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Post by talshill on Dec 24, 2023 9:44:59 GMT -6
Hope everyone has a wonderful Christmas. I wish all of you a healthy and prosperous new year.🎄🎅
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Dec 24, 2023 10:25:24 GMT -6
Hope everyone has a wonderful Christmas. I wish all of you a healthy and prosperous new year.🎄🎅 Merry Christmas! |
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Post by Ashitaka on Dec 24, 2023 10:31:46 GMT -6
Merry Christmas!
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Post by unionstation82 on Dec 24, 2023 10:53:29 GMT -6
Merry Christmas!
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koolade2
Veteran
15K Thief
#WWG1WGA
Posts: 4,340
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Post by koolade2 on Dec 24, 2023 20:56:21 GMT -6
Happy Christmas and with luck you should have a Merry New Year.
I look at this way everyone wants it to be a Happy Christmas with the Family and they come the New Year everyone always seems to Make Merry through the night into the Morning
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Post by abregmanfan on Dec 25, 2023 21:15:49 GMT -6
Merry Christmas!
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Post by Ashitaka on Dec 26, 2023 2:28:07 GMT -6
Give us some relievers under the tree at least, Crane!
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Post by thomasj13 on Dec 26, 2023 16:31:52 GMT -6
Give us some relievers under the tree at least, Crane! Should the Astros be serious contenders for this Y Rodriguez, Cuban, pitcher? |
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Post by Ashitaka on Dec 26, 2023 18:19:16 GMT -6
Give us some relievers under the tree at least, Crane! Should the Astros be serious contenders for this Y Rodriguez, Cuban, pitcher? Yes. No one will be shocked if they don't sign him, though. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Dec 26, 2023 18:38:04 GMT -6
Should the Astros be serious contenders for this Y Rodriguez, Cuban, pitcher? Yes. No one will be shocked if they don't sign him, though. Is he really that good? |
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Post by Ashitaka on Dec 26, 2023 21:41:57 GMT -6
Yes. No one will be shocked if they don't sign him, though. Is he really that good? I don't know, how good is "that good?" He's talented and dominated as a reliever and was very good as a starter in Japan, which is better than AAA typically. There's a lot to like. If he's going to command like $15 million a year then no, he's not that good (probably). But if we can get him for $5-8 million a year for 3-4 years, I'd do it. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Dec 27, 2023 1:51:39 GMT -6
Yes. No one will be shocked if they don't sign him, though. Is he really that good? If he were 36 years old, he’d be on the 40-man roster right now. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Dec 27, 2023 2:22:33 GMT -6
If he were 36 years old, he’d be on the 40-man roster right now. He might be 36. |
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Post by kyledriver1980 on Dec 27, 2023 4:44:41 GMT -6
Maldonado to the White Sox on a one year deal. See ya!
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Post by thomasj13 on Dec 27, 2023 11:22:25 GMT -6
So Astros possible offseason moves now are:
Yariel Rodriguez
Hicks or Stephenson
Veteran OF LH Bat, PTBNM
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Post by thomasj13 on Dec 27, 2023 11:31:58 GMT -6
Could Crane and Brown do some Ohtani structured type signings?
Altuve and Bergman both getting $22.5M, a year, for 4 and 5 years respectively. Followed by deferred payments of $7.5M for another 5 years.
Tucker gets $27.5M for 7 years annually, and then $10M deferred annually for 5 years afterwards .
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