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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 16, 2018 13:43:53 GMT -6
Granderson, McCutchen, A Jones could all work as NewGuy. Shin-soo Choo is probably the best-hitting outfielder on a non-contending team who could probably pass through waivers. However the Astros would be stuck with him for two more seasons after this one is finished... which sounds like a recipe for repeating Sipp's 2016 and 2017 seasons. Even if the Rangers agreed to pick up a large part of Choo's remaining salary, he'd hog a roster spot and the Astros would have no way to just 'send him to the minors' if he struggled to do better than Mendoza. Welcome back. |
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Post by m240 on Aug 16, 2018 13:46:44 GMT -6
Here is a slightly different way to look at Choo:
Texas has been reported to be willing to eat up to 10 million of Choo's contract depending on who they get back in return. So that drops his cost down to 30 million for 19 and 20 or an average of 15 million per season. Last year the value of the Astros as a team went up almost 200 million dollars. The "average team increased by 6% so that would of meant an increase for the Astros of about 80 million. So the Astros increased in value by an additional 120 million based upon winning the world series and having cheap controllable prospects in the system and a league average payroll. So adding Choo would kind of mess with the valuation for payroll but would add value if the Astros can get to the world series again. So making it back into the playoffs and doing well is kind of baked into the valuation of the Astros based upon an expectation that they will do just that. So what will happen if they do not, the valuation goes down. Right now we do not have the horses to go a long way in the playoffs if we even make it.
So if Choo is the only legitimate bat available we almost have to get him or roll a real heavy set of dice that the boys will all snap back and everything becomes rainbows, roses, and unicorns again. From what I know of Luhnow he won't leave it to just a chance.
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 13:47:07 GMT -6
I'd be okay with Shoo since his contract would end by the time we would have to pay big money to Springer or Correa. Even at his worst you can at least count on him to get on base consistently. McCutchen makes the most sense for us though. Imagine if we could have gotten Ramos and then also pickup McCutchen.... We'd be set. I had rather have McCuthen than Choo. I don't think Choo has much value except as a DH. We needed Ramos or....preferably Realmuto. I never heard anything said about Luhnow pursuing either of them. We will have a hard time getting the hitter we need because other contenders would block it. Shoo is the better hitter by far and would play decent enough defense. But if we're not wanting to take on the contract, McCutchen is the way to go. Luhnow is so secretive with his dealings that there is rarely much of an idea who we're looking at. Nobody even had a hint of the Osuna deal. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Aug 16, 2018 13:48:38 GMT -6
I'd be okay with Shoo since his contract would end by the time we would have to pay big money to Springer or Correa. Even at his worst you can at least count on him to get on base consistently. McCutchen makes the most sense for us though. Imagine if we could have gotten Ramos and then also pickup McCutchen.... We'd be set. McCutchen has been declining pretty quickly the past couple years and his output has been about the same as Springer's this season. Solid, certainly, and more than we could expect from Fisher or Tucker, but we'd have to remember we aren't getting the All-Star version of Cutch. The Astros definitely should be pursuing negotiations for Cutch, alongside a couple others as you never know who is going to clear waivers. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 16, 2018 13:48:54 GMT -6
Another article said he would probably prefer a AL team. So he could essentially be a DH aswell We have too many guys that should be DHs already. We need a LFer. If he can still play respectable defense in LF... I'd much rather have McCutchen. Better at everything. I doubt McCutchen would clear. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 16, 2018 13:50:29 GMT -6
Jones would be a great LF and an average CF. His defense wouldn’t hinder the outfield.
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 13:52:18 GMT -6
I'd be okay with Shoo since his contract would end by the time we would have to pay big money to Springer or Correa. Even at his worst you can at least count on him to get on base consistently. McCutchen makes the most sense for us though. Imagine if we could have gotten Ramos and then also pickup McCutchen.... We'd be set. McCutchen has been declining pretty quickly the past couple years and his output has been about the same as Springer's this season. Solid, certainly, and more than we could expect from Fisher or Tucker, but we'd have to remember we aren't getting the All-Star version of Cutch. The Astros definitely should be pursuing negotiations for Cutch, alongside a couple others as you never know who is going to clear waivers. McCutchen performing as he is right now would be a huge boost to the OF. I'd be totally fine with that. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 13:53:12 GMT -6
Jones would be a great LF and an average CF. His defense wouldn’t hinder the outfield. I don't know...his defense has been very bad. I'd take him over what we have now, but McCutchen is the better player at the moment. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 16, 2018 13:57:39 GMT -6
Jones would be a great LF and an average CF. His defense wouldn’t hinder the outfield. I don't know...his defense has been very bad. I'd take him over what we have now, but McCutchen is the better player at the moment. I’d take Choo over both, but the money... Plus, he’s no spring chicken anymore. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Aug 16, 2018 14:04:48 GMT -6
Here's a little comparison of the 2018 hitting records of the 3 guys we're discussing.
vs LHP
Jones: .706
Choo: .742
McCutchen: .801
vs RHP
Jones: .774
Choo: .924
McCutchen: .748
Defensively, one would probably rank them: McCutchen, Choo, Jones.
This year the Astros' main problem is with RHP (only hitting .738) whereas against LHP the team is fine (hitting .794). On that basis, it's really tempting to go after Choo.
Against RHP in the playoffs, the optimal OF would probably be Springer, Kemp, Choo. Against LHP it would be Reddick, Springer, Marisnick.
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 16, 2018 14:15:02 GMT -6
If Choo isn't moving around any better than he was the last time I saw him, there is no way I'd put him in the OF.
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 16, 2018 14:18:08 GMT -6
Here's a little comparison of the 2018 hitting records of the 3 guys we're discussing. vs LHP Jones: .706 Choo: .742 McCutchen: .801 vs RHP Jones: .774 Choo: .924 McCutchen: .748 Defensively, one would probably rank them: McCutchen, Choo, Jones. This year the Astros' main problem is with RHP (only hitting .738) whereas against LHP the team is fine (hitting .794). On that basis, it's really tempting to go after Choo. Against RHP in the playoffs, the optimal OF would probably be Springer, Kemp, Choo. Against LHP it would be Reddick, Springer, Marisnick. Wow, Jones is that bad defensively? I’d figure he’d at least be great in LF. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 16, 2018 14:20:34 GMT -6
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Post by astrosdoug on Aug 16, 2018 14:31:11 GMT -6
That ranking I gave was based on a quick look at dWAR. Jones is at about -1.7 this year, Choo at -1.1, and Cutch at -.0.4.
UZR is probably a better overall defensive metric. By UZR, Jones is at -10.5; Choo is at -0.6; and Cutch is at -2.2. Of course their performance will vary somewhat depending on where you play them. And then it depends a lot on what minor injuries they might be nursing come the postseason...
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 14:31:39 GMT -6
The problem is, if we want a legit bat, Choo is the one that offers that.
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 16, 2018 15:40:25 GMT -6
The problem is, if we want a legit bat, Choo is the one that offers that. He offers the bat,but, I would like to have a hitter who can also play a position without being a defensive liability. |
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Post by bearbryant on Aug 16, 2018 15:42:10 GMT -6
Amen...........I get tired of whenever they hit a home run hearing all this BS about launch angle, hit probability, exit velocity, etc. WAR is probably the most over-rated stat there is. there are no panaceas. However stats have their place. the launch angle of any individual batted ball means nothing, the launch angle of two months worth of batted balls means a lot. Numbers are tools to help you determine what needs to be done. Numbers are an element of coaching, they are not coaching. Teams are catching up to the Astros and are learning to counter our moves, we need to learn to counter the counter. And so it goes. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 15:45:28 GMT -6
The problem is, if we want a legit bat, Choo is the one that offers that. He offers the bat,but, I would like to have a hitter who can also play a position without being a defensive liability. You're okay with Adam Jones and he is worse defensively... |
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 16, 2018 16:17:18 GMT -6
He offers the bat,but, I would like to have a hitter who can also play a position without being a defensive liability. You're okay with Adam Jones and he is worse defensively... If he is, he has just gotten that way. I know he isn't as slow as Choo. One thing in Choo's favor is he would be so glad to get out of Arlington that he could be the run-producer we need. He has good power to the opposite field. |
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koolade2
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Post by koolade2 on Aug 16, 2018 17:45:04 GMT -6
You're okay with Adam Jones and he is worse defensively... If he is, he has just gotten that way. I know he isn't as slow as Choo. One thing in Choo's favor is he would be so glad to get out of Arlington that he could be the run-producer we need. He has good power to the opposite field.Not Not only would he be glad to get out of Arlington but also would be Guy or Guys (White)_ that is hungry for the Title. Like I have said numerous times You need to have a couple new Players that are Hungry and have never won. On a good team, they can be the catalyst that wakes a team up. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Aug 16, 2018 18:04:19 GMT -6
I dont understand how tradeable players work when someone clears them as to who can go back.
But I would be ok with offering
Fisher, Reed, Ronnie Dawson and Will Harris if we could trade him. But the contract would have to be we take the remaining of 2018 contract and the Rangers pay 8 million in 2019 and 2020
Leaving 26m for the last 2 years of remaing contract. And a cap figure of 13m for 2019 and 13 million for 2020. So he can DH those years most likely Gattis would not be retained.
For Choo to play LF and DH
I would do this trade.
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Post by m240 on Aug 16, 2018 18:30:13 GMT -6
I would do that deal. Seems about right actually.
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Post by abregmanfan on Aug 16, 2018 20:07:20 GMT -6
I dont understand how tradeable players work when someone clears them as to who can go back. But I would be ok with offering Fisher, Reed, Ronnie Dawson and Will Harris if we could trade him. But the contract would have to be we take the remaining of 2018 contract and the Rangers pay 8 million in 2019 and 2020 Leaving 26m for the last 2 years of remaing contract. And a cap figure of 13m for 2019 and 13 million for 2020. So he can DH those years most likely Gattis would not be retained. For Choo to play LF and DH I would do this trade. No way I would give up Fisher and or Dawson for Choo. |
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talshill
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Post by talshill on Aug 16, 2018 20:07:44 GMT -6
You'd think so, but there are plenty of people doing it. Including people on this board. If that is a shot at me, another example of how you love to take things out of context. I have never said Luhnow's "metbods" when it comes to the use of stats is questionable. I HAVE questioned his tendence to balk at making needed additions to make us better for the playoff run. Last year, when we needed bullpen help, he brought in a couple of duds in Liriano and Clippard. He seemed to have learned from that and signed Rondon and Smith before dealing for Pressley and Osuna. But, he still have not added the bat that is so obviously needed. There are more people on this board who are capable of using common sense and what they see than those who live and die by a stat sheet. I wasn't in on the conversations Luhnow had with other GMs, so I can't comment on non-moves. Needs have to coincide with opportunity. Do what you want of course, but I'd cut the guy a little slack. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Aug 16, 2018 20:21:29 GMT -6
I dont understand how tradeable players work when someone clears them as to who can go back. But I would be ok with offering Fisher, Reed, Ronnie Dawson and Will Harris if we could trade him. But the contract would have to be we take the remaining of 2018 contract and the Rangers pay 8 million in 2019 and 2020 Leaving 26m for the last 2 years of remaing contract. And a cap figure of 13m for 2019 and 13 million for 2020. So he can DH those years most likely Gattis would not be retained. For Choo to play LF and DH I would do this trade. No way I would give up Fisher and or Dawson for Choo. If they pay 16m of the remaining contract I would be for it. Not a fan of Fisher and Dawson hasn't done nadda just early round hype when drafted. Would be fair if they paid the contract. |
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Post by m240 on Aug 16, 2018 20:26:43 GMT -6
No way I would give up Fisher and or Dawson for Choo. If they pay 16m of the remaining contract I would be for it. Not a fan of Fisher and Dawson hasn't done nadda just early round hype when drafted. Would be fair if they paid the contract. You and I seem to have the same opinion of Fisher and Dawson. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Aug 16, 2018 20:27:47 GMT -6
Choo's heavy pricetag will make it more likely that he can be acquired in August. Just like it was with Verlander.
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Post by m240 on Aug 16, 2018 21:22:26 GMT -6
He will be the only impact bat that slides all the way through, at least that is my opinion.
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 16, 2018 21:54:39 GMT -6
If they pay 16m of the remaining contract I would be for it. Not a fan of Fisher and Dawson hasn't done nadda just early round hype when drafted. Would be fair if they paid the contract. You and I seem to have the same opinion of Fisher and Dawson. I don't know anything about Dawson, but, from what i have seen of Fisher, he's over-rated. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 16, 2018 21:56:16 GMT -6
He will be the only impact bat that slides all the way through, at least that is my opinion. I think we may be able to get him,but, McCutchen would be my pick over Choo.......But, I don't see McCutchen sliding through to us. |
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