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Post by m240 on Aug 15, 2018 21:25:41 GMT -6
Really, the only stats I have any argument against are WAR and BABIPPITYDOODAH. It's not stats that I dont like...its stat-heads who think stats is all there is to the game. Amen...........I get tired of whenever they hit a home run hearing all this BS about launch angle, hit probability, exit velocity, etc. WAR is probably the most over-rated stat there is. there are no panaceas. However stats have their place. the launch angle of any individual batted ball means nothing, the launch angle of two months worth of batted balls means a lot. Numbers are tools to help you determine what needs to be done. Numbers are an element of coaching, they are not coaching. Teams are catching up to the Astros and are learning to counter our moves, we need to learn to counter the counter. And so it goes. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 15, 2018 23:21:03 GMT -6
BABIP alone keeps me from being a stat geek.
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 15, 2018 23:37:10 GMT -6
BABIP alone keeps me from being a stat geek. Many people think by posting a lot of stats it makes it appear that they know more than they really do. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Aug 16, 2018 1:02:07 GMT -6
BABIP alone keeps me from being a stat geek. Many people think by posting a lot of stats it makes it appear that they know more than they really do. Inconceivable |
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Post by m240 on Aug 16, 2018 8:28:13 GMT -6
Many people think by posting a lot of stats it makes it appear that they know more than they really do. Inconceivable do you have any stats to back that up. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 8:35:44 GMT -6
If the idea is to win...and stats can help you decide who is the best player to use in certain situations to help you win...what is the problem with stats?
Not wanting to use all of the information available to you to help you make a decision is like saying you can have too much knowledge....
There is a reason this team had such a big turnaround when Luhnow and his more (not complete) mathematical/analytical approach took over. Now I'm not saying it's all about the numbers. Playing hot hands and riding hot streaks is important. Intangibles and clubhouse chemistry play a big role too. But badmouthing factual mathematical proof is ridiculous.
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 16, 2018 8:38:05 GMT -6
If the idea is to win...and stats can help you decide who is the best player to use in certain situations to help you win...what is the problem with stats? Not wanting to use all of the information available to you to help you make a decision is like saying you can have too much knowledge.... There is a reason this team had such a big turnaround when Luhnow and his more (not complete) mathematical/analytical approach took over. Now I'm not saying it's all about the numbers. Playing hot hands and riding hot streaks is important. Intangibles and clubhouse chemistry play a big role too. But badmouthing factual mathematical proof is ridiculous. You’d have to be a fool to question Luhnow’s methods after last season. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 8:40:10 GMT -6
If the idea is to win...and stats can help you decide who is the best player to use in certain situations to help you win...what is the problem with stats? Not wanting to use all of the information available to you to help you make a decision is like saying you can have too much knowledge.... There is a reason this team had such a big turnaround when Luhnow and his more (not complete) mathematical/analytical approach took over. Now I'm not saying it's all about the numbers. Playing hot hands and riding hot streaks is important. Intangibles and clubhouse chemistry play a big role too. But badmouthing factual mathematical proof is ridiculous. You’d have to be a fool to question Luhnow’s methods after last season. You'd think so, but there are plenty of people doing it. Including people on this board. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 16, 2018 8:44:56 GMT -6
You’d have to be a fool to question Luhnow’s methods after last season. You'd think so, but there are plenty of people doing it. Including people on this board. When I’m reactionary, I question him a little, but when I think big picture, he generally seems to know best. You can semi-justify even his most questionable trades: Conger and Maldonado come to mind. The most controversial trade was for Osuna. Time will tell on him. He’s been okay, but I’d like to see more dominance. Unlike Giles, though, he can throw strikes and get away with them more often. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 8:47:30 GMT -6
You'd think so, but there are plenty of people doing it. Including people on this board. When I’m reactionary, I question him a little, but when I think big picture, he generally seems to know best. You can semi-justify even his most questionable trades: Conger and Maldonado come to mind. The most controversial trade was for Osuna. Time will tell on him. He’s been okay, but I’d like to see more dominance. Unlike Giles, though, he can throw strikes and get away with them more often. Nobody is going to be perfect with deals. I'm not saying Luhnow is perfect. But his overall approach is working. Phillies activated Wilson Ramos... Losing out on him and taking lowly Maldonado was an example of a Luhnow mistake, imo. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 16, 2018 9:09:34 GMT -6
When I’m reactionary, I question him a little, but when I think big picture, he generally seems to know best. You can semi-justify even his most questionable trades: Conger and Maldonado come to mind. The most controversial trade was for Osuna. Time will tell on him. He’s been okay, but I’d like to see more dominance. Unlike Giles, though, he can throw strikes and get away with them more often. Nobody is going to be perfect with deals. I'm not saying Luhnow is perfect. But his overall approach is working. Phillies activated Wilson Ramos... Losing out on him and taking lowly Maldonado was an example of a Luhnow mistake, imo. Yeah, I guess he figured McCann wasn’t going to get the AB’s for the vesting option, and that was good enough for him. Maybe he was worried about Ramos’s hamstring. It’s interesting that a lot of his questionable moves involve catchers. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 9:12:27 GMT -6
Nobody is going to be perfect with deals. I'm not saying Luhnow is perfect. But his overall approach is working. Phillies activated Wilson Ramos... Losing out on him and taking lowly Maldonado was an example of a Luhnow mistake, imo. Yeah, I guess he figured McCann wasn’t going to get the AB’s for the vesting option, and that was good enough for him. Maybe he was worried about Ramos’s hamstring. It’s interesting that a lot of his questionable moves involve catchers. Arguably the toughest position to track all around value. We've got a very good all-around catcher by most metrics this year and our own fanbase can't agree on him. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 16, 2018 9:15:20 GMT -6
Yeah, I guess he figured McCann wasn’t going to get the AB’s for the vesting option, and that was good enough for him. Maybe he was worried about Ramos’s hamstring. It’s interesting that a lot of his questionable moves involve catchers. Arguably the toughest position to track all around value. We've got a very good all-around catcher by most metrics this year and our own fanbase can't agree on him. Perception is warped by an overall team struggle. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Aug 16, 2018 10:19:59 GMT -6
Is it officially time to punch for Adam Jones???
Would be an Awesome fit for the LF.....
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 10:24:52 GMT -6
Is it officially time to punch for Adam Jones??? Would be an Awesome fit for the LF..... He has already said he isn't moving. |
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Post by paastrosfan on Aug 16, 2018 10:58:35 GMT -6
do you have any stats to back that up. To post the stats, you have to know the facts, where some people think their opinion is fact. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 16, 2018 11:17:25 GMT -6
You’d have to be a fool to question Luhnow’s methods after last season. You'd think so, but there are plenty of people doing it. Including people on this board. If that is a shot at me, another example of how you love to take things out of context. I have never said Luhnow's "metbods" when it comes to the use of stats is questionable. I HAVE questioned his tendence to balk at making needed additions to make us better for the playoff run. Last year, when we needed bullpen help, he brought in a couple of duds in Liriano and Clippard. He seemed to have learned from that and signed Rondon and Smith before dealing for Pressley and Osuna. But, he still have not added the bat that is so obviously needed. There are more people on this board who are capable of using common sense and what they see than those who live and die by a stat sheet. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 11:38:54 GMT -6
do you have any stats to back that up. To post the stats, you have to know the facts, where some people think their opinion is fact. And there it is. What your "eyes" see can be quite a bi biased because you don't see every player. Stats are fact. The only argument is which stats you want to give more credence too over others. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 11:41:07 GMT -6
You'd think so, but there are plenty of people doing it. Including people on this board. If that is a shot at me, another example of how you love to take things out of context. I have never said Luhnow's "metbods" when it comes to the use of stats is questionable. I HAVE questioned his tendence to balk at making needed additions to make us better for the playoff run. Last year, when we needed bullpen help, he brought in a couple of duds in Liriano and Clippard. He seemed to have learned from that and signed Rondon and Smith before dealing for Pressley and Osuna. But, he still have not added the bat that is so obviously needed. There are more people on this board who are capable of using common sense and what they see than those who live and die by a stat sheet. Defensive much? There are a couple dozen other regular posters on this board. If I want to direct something to you personally, I will use your name as I have before. So there is no common sense in using proven facts (statistics). Got it. Makes no sense, but I got it. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Aug 16, 2018 12:49:27 GMT -6
Is it officially time to punch for Adam Jones??? Would be an Awesome fit for the LF..... He has already said he isn't moving. Another article said he would probably prefer a AL team. So he could essentially be a DH aswell |
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Post by astrosdoug on Aug 16, 2018 12:51:22 GMT -6
The team is already looking crowded (for example: who to send down when McCann/Altuve/Springer/Devo return?) but there does seem to be that bat missing. In order, the weakest bats on the team this have year been:
Maldonado
Tucker
Davis
Fisher
McCann
Marisnick
Marwin
Everybody else has at least hit for the league average, so I'd try to keep them on the postseason roster if possible.
Last year, the Astros went with 11 pitchers and 14 position players in the ALDS.
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 12:52:16 GMT -6
He has already said he isn't moving. Another article said he would probably prefer a AL team. So he could essentially be a DH aswell We have too many guys that should be DHs already. We need a LFer. If he can still play respectable defense in LF... I'd much rather have McCutchen. Better at everything. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 16, 2018 12:56:41 GMT -6
To post the stats, you have to know the facts, where some people think their opinion is fact. And there it is. What your "eyes" see can be quite a bi biased because you don't see every player. Stats are fact. The only argument is which stats you want to give more credence too over others. Yeah, but the eye test has value too, along with intangibles. Neither those nor stats are 100% accurate in determining player outcome. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 16, 2018 12:57:15 GMT -6
To post the stats, you have to know the facts, where some people think their opinion is fact. And there it is. What your "eyes" see can be quite a bi biased because you don't see every player. Stats are fact. The only argument is which stats you want to give more credence too over others. Are you saying that all stats should have the same value placed on them? Once again, I have never said any stat has no place in determining a player's value. What I have said.......and said....and said...is that stats are not the ONLY measure of a player's value to a team. I place very little, if any, value on WAR,yet some people think it has great value. I don't just look at a stat sheet and announce that this guy is great and the other one is below average. Does the guy hit with RISP? Does he hit the top pitchers or just fatten his stats against mediocre pitchers? Does he hit with the game on the line or does he fatten his RBI total after the game has been won or lost? Does he advance runners instead of trying to pull every pitch? Lots of factors can go into determining productive hitters. Seeing something with your eyes is not biased unless you only see what you want to see instead of what is actually there. You can also be biased when you totally depend on a stat sheet to determine a player's worth. For example, a stat sheet would tell us that Jake Marisnick has little to no value to the Astros which is totally false. He energizes the team and that has been verified by other players. He is a valuable base runner when a crucial run is needed and his speed comes into play. I am sure Gerrit Cole and other pitchers will testify to his value as a centerfielder. He has also hit since his last recall, but, if you look at a stat sheet, you don't see his total worth. Opinions are not facts, but, what you can verify by seeing it is a fact and you don't need to look at a damn stat sheet to figure it out. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Aug 16, 2018 13:02:49 GMT -6
Unless something unexpected happens, I'd think Marwin, Jake, and BMac are locks for the postseason roster. That leaves one slot left for a position player (preferably, one who hits righties well).
That gives the following postseason roster:
CATCHERS (3)
McCann, Stassi, Gattis (emergency)
INFIELDERS (5)
Altuve, Bregman, Correa, White, Gurriel
OUTFIELDERS (4)
Springer, Reddick, Marisnick, NewGuy
UTILITY (2)
Kemp, Marwin
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 13:03:14 GMT -6
And there it is. What your "eyes" see can be quite a bi biased because you don't see every player. Stats are fact. The only argument is which stats you want to give more credence too over others. Yeah, but the eye test has value too, along with intangibles. Neither those nor stats are 100% accurate in determining player outcome. Sure, stats can be misleading with some things (fluke hits, etc.), but they're generally overwhelmingly more consistent and accurate than random fans' "eye tests"... |
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 13:05:44 GMT -6
And there it is. What your "eyes" see can be quite a bi biased because you don't see every player. Stats are fact. The only argument is which stats you want to give more credence too over others. Are you saying that all stats should have the same value placed on them? Once again, I have never said any stat has no place in determining a player's value. What I have said.......and said....and said...is that stats are not the ONLY measure of a player's value to a team. I place very little, if any, value on WAR,yet some people think it has great value. I don't just look at a stat sheet and announce that this guy is great and the other one is below average. Does the guy hit with RISP? Does he hit the top pitchers or just fatten his stats against mediocre pitchers? Does he hit with the game on the line or does he fatten his RBI total after the game has been won or lost? Does he advance runners instead of trying to pull every pitch? Lots of factors can go into determining productive hitters. Seeing something with your eyes is not biased unless you only see what you want to see instead of what is actually there. You can also be biased when you totally depend on a stat sheet to determine a player's worth. For example, a stat sheet would tell us that Jake Marisnick has little to no value to the Astros which is totally false. He energizes the team and that has been verified by other players. He is a valuable base runner when a crucial run is needed and his speed comes into play. I am sure Gerrit Cole and other pitchers will testify to his value as a centerfielder. He has also hit since his last recall, but, if you look at a stat sheet, you don't see his total worth. Opinions are not facts, but, what you can verify by seeing it is a fact and you don't need to look at a damn stat sheet to figure it out. Every situation you just described has stats to support their arguments. If you find those situations important (and they are), stats can show you the unbiased truth of who is successful and who is not. As I said before, it's just using which stats you feel have more importance than others. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Aug 16, 2018 13:15:16 GMT -6
Granderson, McCutchen, A Jones could all work as NewGuy.
Shin-soo Choo is probably the best-hitting outfielder on a non-contending team who could probably pass through waivers. However the Astros would be stuck with him for two more seasons after this one is finished... which sounds like a recipe for repeating Sipp's 2016 and 2017 seasons. Even if the Rangers agreed to pick up a large part of Choo's remaining salary, he'd hog a roster spot and the Astros would have no way to just 'send him to the minors' if he struggled to do better than Mendoza.
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Post by Saint on Aug 16, 2018 13:28:02 GMT -6
I'd be okay with Shoo since his contract would end by the time we would have to pay big money to Springer or Correa. Even at his worst you can at least count on him to get on base consistently.
McCutchen makes the most sense for us though. Imagine if we could have gotten Ramos and then also pickup McCutchen.... We'd be set.
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 16, 2018 13:38:20 GMT -6
I'd be okay with Shoo since his contract would end by the time we would have to pay big money to Springer or Correa. Even at his worst you can at least count on him to get on base consistently. McCutchen makes the most sense for us though. Imagine if we could have gotten Ramos and then also pickup McCutchen.... We'd be set. I had rather have McCuthen than Choo. I don't think Choo has much value except as a DH. We needed Ramos or....preferably Realmuto. I never heard anything said about Luhnow pursuing either of them. We will have a hard time getting the hitter we need because other contenders would block it. |
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