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Post by blcoach8 on Jul 16, 2018 13:47:01 GMT -6
I agree given the level of interest in Machado by other teams, a trade would be a heavy mortgage on our future. Nor do I think the front office is targeting Machado FWIW.
At the same time though, if they keep pushing back Correa's "game-readiness" I think we do need to be concerned going forward about our ability to replicate his production
in the 2nd half. Even though a trade for Merrifield is more feasible, I don't think it addresses this concern. Nor do I particularly agree Merrifield is a bat that would make an
impact down the stretch if we're looking to boost offense It comes down to: Correa - Gurriel - Bregman (but deal with Marwin until Correa is back) or Gurriel - Bregman - Abreu/White/Merrifield (+maybe Correa and keep more prospects) or Machado - Gurriel - Bregman (+maybe Correa at some point and a lot less prospects) Option 2 looks the best to me, especially if we got Merrifield. We WILL get Correa back by the postseason, so investing in Machado seems too costly. Abreu is limited defensively now, but would have a spot as a DH next year. Merrifield can play 1B or LF right now, and be a utility player in the future to replace Marwin. He isn't the impact bat, but overall he has a lot of value with his versatility and cost. What bothers me about the Correa situation is that Hinch does not seem to want to give any kind of prediction on when he will return. That makes me think we are not being given many facts, if any, as to his real problem. i think getting Merrifield is more realistic than expecting them to get Machado, who is a very expensive rental. |
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Post by Saint on Jul 16, 2018 13:47:31 GMT -6
To be an effective DH, first or third baseman, or pinch hitter, you need a guy with power who is going to drive in runs not just be good at drawing walks. His power numbers are practically non-existent. If we are going to keep him, insert him as a DH replacement for Gattis and see what happens. Gattis seems to have ended his hot streak which we had to know probably would not last. He has always been a streaky hitter and now he is in a cold streak. Over the last two stints with the Astros since his rookie year, White has a .495 SLG. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jul 16, 2018 13:49:46 GMT -6
To be an effective DH, first or third baseman, or pinch hitter, you need a guy with power who is going to drive in runs not just be good at drawing walks. His power numbers are practically non-existent. If we are going to keep him, insert him as a DH replacement for Gattis and see what happens. Gattis seems to have ended his hot streak which we had to know probably would not last. He has always been a streaky hitter and now he is in a cold streak. Over the last two stints with the Astros since his rookie year, White has a .495 SLG. The problem with that is that he has not had enough at bats at the major league level to get an accurate projection of what he can do. You have to look at the caliber of pitching he has been successful against, too. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 16, 2018 13:56:01 GMT -6
I know the fanbase is not accustomed to thinking of White as a power hitter, but his stats show that he does in fact have above-average power. Consider:
In 2017 and 2018 combined, White has the fourth-highest SLG of any Astros with 75 PAs or more.
Correa - .523
Altuve - .517
Bregman - .501
White - .495
Springer - .478
Gattis - .472
White ranks *first* on the team in 2017/18 in average distance travelled by batted balls at 219 ft. Marisnick is 2nd at 202 ft and Reddick is 3rd at 190 ft.
White ranks 6th on the team in 2017/18 in average exit velocity at 89 mph.
The combination of high exit velocity and tendency to hit the ball a long way leads, over time, to a high HR/AB rate which is why White has 5 major league HRs in his 93 major league ABs last season and this season combined. That is one of the highest HR/AB rates on the team.
White's high BB% is a result of nearly Bregman-like plate discipline. He simply doesn't swing at pitches outside the zone very much, and when he does swing, he has one of the team's lowest whiff rates. That means even in 2-strike counts, he typically extends the AB and either draws a walk or gets a hit.
Walks aren't a horrible outcome for a PA. They are much better than K's, groundouts, flyouts, etc. They give the next guy in the batting order a chance for an RBI, drive up pitch counts, and frustrate pitchers.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 16, 2018 14:10:23 GMT -6
Over the last two stints with the Astros since his rookie year, White has a .495 SLG. The problem with that is that he has not had enough at bats at the major league level to get an accurate projection of what he can do. You have to look at the caliber of pitching he has been successful against, too. How’re you gonna get AB’s without playing? |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 16, 2018 14:15:54 GMT -6
Another interesting thing about White's power numbers is that since his major league debut in 2016, 46% of his 78 hits have been for extra bases (23 doubles and 13 HRs). That compares with a team average of 36% of all hits which go for extra bases.
White isn't Barry Bonds, but he provides more power than the average Astro. It's hard to write off his major league numbers as a fluke when he leads the Grizzlies in OPS this year at 1.023 and has generally mashed throughout the minors, including winning PCL Hitter of the Year in 2015, which was quite an accomplishment.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 16, 2018 14:16:00 GMT -6
I know the fanbase is not accustomed to thinking of White as a power hitter, but his stats show that he does in fact have above-average power. Consider: In 2017 and 2018 combined, White has the fourth-highest SLG of any Astros with 75 PAs or more. Correa - .523 Altuve - .517 Bregman - .501 White - .495 Springer - .478 Gattis - .472 White ranks *first* on the team in 2017/18 in average distance travelled by batted balls at 219 ft. Marisnick is 2nd at 202 ft and Reddick is 3rd at 190 ft. White ranks 6th on the team in 2017/18 in average exit velocity at 89 mph. The combination of high exit velocity and tendency to hit the ball a long way leads, over time, to a high HR/AB rate which is why White has 5 major league HRs in his 93 major league ABs last season and this season combined. That is one of the highest HR/AB rates on the team. White's high BB% is a result of nearly Bregman-like plate discipline. He simply doesn't swing at pitches outside the zone very much, and when he does swing, he has one of the team's lowest whiff rates. That means even in 2-strike counts, he typically extends the AB and either draws a walk or gets a hit. Walks aren't a horrible outcome for a PA. They are much better than K's, groundouts, flyouts, etc. They give the next guy in the batting order a chance for an RBI, drive up pitch counts, and frustrate pitchers. I think most fans need more hitting the ground running from White because what they remember from him is a hot start in ‘16 followed by big time flaming out. He was a non-factor last season, and this season the overweight look draws out the detractors. He is a case of “believe it when I see it”. It’s probably an unfair way of looking at it, but it is what it is. |
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Post by bearbryant on Jul 16, 2018 14:33:22 GMT -6
What bothers me about the Correa situation is that Hinch does not seem to want to give any kind of prediction on when he will return. That makes me think we are not being given many facts, if any, as to his real problem. |
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Post by Saint on Jul 16, 2018 14:35:30 GMT -6
Over the last two stints with the Astros since his rookie year, White has a .495 SLG. The problem with that is that he has not had enough at bats at the major league level to get an accurate projection of what he can do. You have to look at the caliber of pitching he has been successful against, too. Well you want to keep sending him down to AAA. How does he get ABs?  |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jul 16, 2018 14:46:03 GMT -6
What have some of you figured out that makes you think Correa is out for the season? Hes got jerkoff elbow. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jul 16, 2018 14:49:50 GMT -6
Too bad Marwin pulled the wool over our collective eyes. Not a complete collective, son...I was the lone protester. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jul 16, 2018 14:53:17 GMT -6
The problem with that is that he has not had enough at bats at the major league level to get an accurate projection of what he can do. You have to look at the caliber of pitching he has been successful against, too. How’re you gonna get AB’s without playing? Let him get his AB's in Fresno.......we need guys who can produce runs for us. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jul 16, 2018 14:55:13 GMT -6
What have some of you figured out that makes you think Correa is out for the season? Hes got jerkoff elbow.  never heard of jerkoff elbow causing back stiffness. I heard some guys yesterday wondering if he had a STD. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jul 16, 2018 14:58:25 GMT -6
The problem with that is that he has not had enough at bats at the major league level to get an accurate projection of what he can do. You have to look at the caliber of pitching he has been successful against, too. Well you want to keep sending him down to AAA. How does he get ABs? Who do you suggest we bench to give him his AB's? Another thing, we weaken our defense at any position we put him. If they think they have to get him in the lineup. DH is the only place for him since Gattis isn't hitting anyway right now. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 16, 2018 15:26:09 GMT -6
The stats (like wRC) already show that White is about the fourth- or fifth-best hitter on the team at creating runs. Sending Fisher and Davis to the minors was one thing, as they were really hurting the team with their OPS's down in the 500s and 600s, but to demote a hitter like White, with an OPS north of .800, probably drags the offense down on a net basis.
Unionstation hit it on the head in terms of why fans don't appreciate White in spite of his good numbers. It's the lingering ghost of May 2016, when White crashed and burned after getting everyone's hopes up with such a good debut week in April.
What most fans failed to notice about White's 2016 season were two things --
a) When he returned to the team as a September call-up, he hit for a respectable .791 OPS, well above the league average, showing that he had made fundamental corrections to his approach while in Fresno that summer.
b) He only really "sucked" in 2016 against RHP, with a .591 OPS. Against lefties, he hit .798 in a league that was hitting around .730 as an average.
If you compare videotape of White's early 2016 PAs with his PAs this year, you can see why he is hitting better. The way he points his toes at the plate, his stance, and his pitch selection are all quite different from how they were 2 years ago. His plate approach 2 years ago vs LHP was all right, but the retooling he did in summer 2016 has allowed him to hit RHP at over an .800 OPS while not affecting his success against LHP.
These are things the average fan doesn't pay attention to, but certainly the coaching staff have noticed.
White will never be a stolen base threat, but the ability to get on base at least 37% of the time and to have nearly half of your hits go for extra bases does a lot to help score runners and to create an RBI opportunity for the next guy.
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Post by Saint on Jul 16, 2018 15:26:34 GMT -6
Too bad Marwin pulled the wool over our collective eyes. Not a complete collective, son...I was the lone protester. For the record, even on the old board, I hated Marwin as a starter. He's hispanic Bruntlett that had one good good fluke season. |
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Post by Saint on Jul 16, 2018 15:27:42 GMT -6
Well you want to keep sending him down to AAA. How does he get ABs? Who do you suggest we bench to give him his AB's? Another thing, we weaken our defense at any position we put him. If they think they have to get him in the lineup. DH is the only place for him since Gattis isn't hitting anyway right now. Marwin. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 16, 2018 15:45:01 GMT -6
This year, Marwin has averaged 1 HR per 49 ABs.
This year, White has averaged 1 HR every 16 ABs. And if you object that his sample size this year is too small, blah blah blah, just combine his 2017 and 2018 numbers and you'll see he gets 1 HR every 18.6 ABs.
That's a pretty reliable stat going forward if you consider White has hit 1 HR per 17.5 ABs with Fresno this year.
Bottom line, White is going to knock the ball out of the park nearly three times as often as Marwin does. In fact only Gattis and Bregman are likely to homer more often than White does. Springer dingers? This year they are only coming once every 25 ABs for George.
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Post by blcoach8 on Jul 16, 2018 15:48:25 GMT -6
Who do you suggest we bench to give him his AB's? Another thing, we weaken our defense at any position we put him. If they think they have to get him in the lineup. DH is the only place for him since Gattis isn't hitting anyway right now. Marwin. I would also like to bench Marwin...or better yet.......get rid of his lazy ass. I guess we could play Bregman at SS, Yuli at third base, and the White Hope at first until Correa returns. That way, White can prove he needs to be traded or sent down. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 16, 2018 15:49:02 GMT -6
never heard of jerkoff elbow causing back stiffness. I heard some guys yesterday wondering if he had a STD. LOL, where are we, high school? |
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Post by bearbryant on Jul 16, 2018 15:53:56 GMT -6
I agree given the level of interest in Machado by other teams, a trade would be a heavy mortgage on our future. Nor do I think the front office is targeting Machado FWIW.
At the same time though, if they keep pushing back Correa's "game-readiness" I think we do need to be concerned going forward about our ability to replicate his production
in the 2nd half. Even though a trade for Merrifield is more feasible, I don't think it addresses this concern. Nor do I particularly agree Merrifield is a bat that would make an
impact down the stretch if we're looking to boost offense It comes down to: Correa - Gurriel - Bregman (but deal with Marwin until Correa is back) or Gurriel - Bregman - Abreu/White/Merrifield (+maybe Correa and keep more prospects) or Machado - Gurriel - Bregman (+maybe Correa at some point and a lot less prospects) Option 2 looks the best to me, especially if we got Merrifield. We WILL get Correa back by the postseason, so investing in Machado seems too costly. Abreu is limited defensively now, but would have a spot as a DH next year. Merrifield can play 1B or LF right now, and be a utility player in the future to replace Marwin. He isn't the impact bat, but overall he has a lot of value with his versatility and cost. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 16, 2018 15:56:24 GMT -6
It comes down to: Correa - Gurriel - Bregman (but deal with Marwin until Correa is back) or Gurriel - Bregman - Abreu/White/Merrifield (+maybe Correa and keep more prospects) or Machado - Gurriel - Bregman (+maybe Correa at some point and a lot less prospects) Option 2 looks the best to me, especially if we got Merrifield. We WILL get Correa back by the postseason, so investing in Machado seems too costly. Abreu is limited defensively now, but would have a spot as a DH next year. Merrifield can play 1B or LF right now, and be a utility player in the future to replace Marwin. He isn't the impact bat, but overall he has a lot of value with his versatility and cost. The second one isn’t enough, in my opinion, unless Springer and Altuve start driving in runs at a much better pace. |
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Post by bearbryant on Jul 16, 2018 16:02:16 GMT -6
The way I see it .. Kemp has a 50/50 shot of out-producing the likely trade candidates who'd take playing time away from him as a result of a potential trade. So we might
as well roll the dice with Tony and see what he can do in the 2nd half
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2018 16:02:57 GMT -6
Not a complete collective, son...I was the lone protester. For the record, even on the old board, I hated Marwin as a starter. He's hispanic Bruntlett that had one good good fluke season. Hildago was another flukey example. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 16, 2018 16:19:08 GMT -6
Not a complete collective, son...I was the lone protester. For the record, even on the old board, I hated Marwin as a starter. He's hispanic Bruntlett that had one good good fluke season. Eh, I think Marwin should get more credit than that. I don’t recall a single thing that Bruntlett did which was noteworthy. Marwin definitely needs to be benched, though. |
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Post by bearbryant on Jul 16, 2018 16:54:04 GMT -6
I didn’t foresee the LF production falling off a cliff here, but I was really sounding the horn about trading for Christian Yelich. Man, he would’ve been great here. Too bad Marwin pulled the wool over our collective eyes. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 16, 2018 16:56:58 GMT -6
I didn’t foresee the LF production falling off a cliff here, but I was really sounding the horn about trading for Christian Yelich. Man, he would’ve been great here. Too bad Marwin pulled the wool over our collective eyes. It was never his targets that were questionable. It was his trade proposals. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 16, 2018 17:05:48 GMT -6
The thing about posters who make bizarre trade proposals is:
a) ANY given trade proposal has only a small likelihood of ever becoming reality.
b) Nonetheless some trade DO occur each season.
c) MANY of those trades make fans scratch their heads at the size of the return one of the parties to the trade receives. (example: Herrera for some no-name prospects).
If we limit discussion of trades only to those trades which seem plausible to most fans, we will end up not discussing many of the trades that actually go down.
it would seem that GMs and their front offices evaluate players and negotiate trades in ways that are quite different from how most fans approach them.
I'm sure most of skygodz' proposals would never get done. However he always gave us interesting things to think about and prompted us to look up stats of players we otherwise wouldn't have known much about.
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Post by olpapa on Jul 16, 2018 17:07:42 GMT -6
It comes down to: Correa - Gurriel - Bregman (but deal with Marwin until Correa is back) or Gurriel - Bregman - Abreu/White/Merrifield (+maybe Correa and keep more prospects) or Machado - Gurriel - Bregman (+maybe Correa at some point and a lot less prospects) Option 2 looks the best to me, especially if we got Merrifield. We WILL get Correa back by the postseason, so investing in Machado seems too costly. Abreu is limited defensively now, but would have a spot as a DH next year. Merrifield can play 1B or LF right now, and be a utility player in the future to replace Marwin. He isn't the impact bat, but overall he has a lot of value with his versatility and cost. I agree about Abreu. I prefer the second option with Merrifield, rather than Abreu. I just checked and Tyker White is still listed on the Astros 25-man roster. I was reading the trade rumors on mlb.com and it was noted that the league office frowns on teams announcing trades during the All-Star break before the game is played. I’m still wondering if Luhnow has a trade in place that he is waiting to announce until after the All-Star game. It wouldn’t necessarily have to involve White being traded, but could require White to be sent to AAA in order to open up a spot on the 25-man roster. Doesn’t seem to me like sending down White and calling up another guy to replace him would be the kind of announcement the league would frown on. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 16, 2018 17:15:42 GMT -6
That's a good point, OlPapa. A report from the Chronicle is not the same thing as an official decision, which should be reflected within 24 hours on the official Astros website (specifically the "Transactions" page, which the site manager usually does a good job keeping current).
If the Padres, Brewers, Tigers, and a few other teams haven't been asking about White in trade, they haven't been doing their homework.
I hate to say it, but White and Kemp are good matches for the Rangers. However I dread to think what those two players would do to the Astros in divisional play over the next 4 years if such a deal ever went down. Even if the Astros got Beltre and Leclerc and whoever else in return.
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never heard of jerkoff elbow causing back stiffness. I heard some guys yesterday wondering if he had a STD. 
