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Post by Saint on Aug 31, 2018 7:22:18 GMT -6
82-52
2.5 games up on Oakland for division lead
3rd best team overall
2nd in run differential at +218
Team OPS+: 111
Team ERA+: 127
Pitching: 1st in ERA, WHIP, BAA, Quality Starts
Batting: 4th in Runs & OBP, 5th in SLG, 6th in AVG
All losses look bad, but they've still been playing really well over the last couple weeks. I think they'll bounce back today fine. I'll say again that Correa could probably use a day off, but we'll see.
As bad as Correa has looked lately, he's not the only one. We need to start getting more from Reddick and Gurriel too. Those guys are each making $13 million this season to be productive players, and now both have them dropped below league average in most offensive rate stats. I know a lot of people here don't like the use of stats, but even without stats we can see that these guys aren't getting it done. Unfortunately, at least for the outfield, we don't have any better options right now. Don't be surprised if Jake from Rake Farm spells Reddick in the OF a decent amount when he gets back.
On the plus side, Springer is hitting .304 with a .407 OBP over the last two weeks, and Devo, while it a little rocky, had a solid 2 innings of work with no earned runs in his return. Plus, that dumbass Altuve is hitting .324 with a .877 OPS since his return. And of course, White has found favor with the hitting gods and continues to just be ridiculously good.
I also just noticed that Sherwin's boy, Gattis, has now passed Correa in OPS. That's sad/funny.
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Post by Saint on Aug 31, 2018 7:55:49 GMT -6
I just realized, if Sipp and/or Harris did their jobs yesterday in the 6th inning, we would have won with another Tyler White walk-off HR...
Course, if the offense did their job at any point in the first 5 innings, we probably would have won.
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Post by olpapa on Aug 31, 2018 8:08:56 GMT -6
Ok. Springer is at #1 and Correa at #4 on the pre-printed lineup card obtained from the clipboard. I’ll put Bregman at #2 and Altuve at #3. No problem there. Now lets draw 5 names out of my cap here...line them up in the order we draw them out, and we’ve got ourselves a starting lineup and batting order for today’s game. This managing is easy stuff when you have the clipboard.” - AJ
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Aug 31, 2018 8:13:15 GMT -6
That is a dishonest statement and you probably know it.
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 31, 2018 8:20:17 GMT -6
I just realized, if Sipp and/or Harris did their jobs yesterday in the 6th inning, we would have won with another Tyler White walk-off HR... Course, if the offense did their job at any point in the first 5 innings, we probably would have won. Verlander had every right to be pissed about being pulled. He had plenty left in the tank and was a better choice after 99 pitches than a fresh Sipp or Harris. Sipp sat it u with the walk to Ohtani. When I saw Harris coming in, I said "game over" and he did just as I predicted and allowed Simmons to clear the bases by throwing a BP pitch. Will AJ ever learn not to bring Harris into a situation like that. I don't know why they keep him on the roster. The offense, Sipp, and Harris are responsible for the loss, although Hinch has to bear a lot of the blame for how he handled the pitching and his refusal to see or admit that Carlos Correa is killing this team. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 31, 2018 8:21:48 GMT -6
Ok. Springer is at #1 and Correa at #4 on the pre-printed lineup card obtained from the clipboard. I’ll put Bregman at #2 and Altuve at #3. No problem there. Now lets draw 5 names out of my cap here...line them up in the order we draw them out, and we’ve got ourselves a starting lineup and batting order for today’s game. This managing is easy stuff when you have the clipboard.” - AJ Somebody should tell Hinch to shove that damn clipboard. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 31, 2018 8:42:47 GMT -6
That is a dishonest statement and you probably know it. I wouldn't call it dishonest. I'd maybe call it exaggerated. I feel the need to post warnings anytime I use numbers these days. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 31, 2018 9:26:24 GMT -6
That is a dishonest statement and you probably know it. I wouldn't call it dishonest. I'd maybe call it exaggerated. I feel the need to post warnings anytime I use numbers these days. I like stats, you whiny hipster. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 31, 2018 9:27:58 GMT -6
Ok. Springer is at #1 and Correa at #4 on the pre-printed lineup card obtained from the clipboard. I’ll put Bregman at #2 and Altuve at #3. No problem there. Now lets draw 5 names out of my cap here...line them up in the order we draw them out, and we’ve got ourselves a starting lineup and batting order for today’s game. This managing is easy stuff when you have the clipboard.” - AJ This is where player feelings should be pushed aside. I know that managers need to be patient, but Correa has struggled, and Springer hasn’t been the same since the thumb injury. It’s time to change things up a bit. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 31, 2018 9:28:05 GMT -6
I wouldn't call it dishonest. I'd maybe call it exaggerated. I feel the need to post warnings anytime I use numbers these days. I like stats, you whiny hipster. Then it doesn't apply to you, peasant. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 31, 2018 9:33:33 GMT -6
I also just noticed that Sherwin's boy, Gattis, has now passed Correa in OPS. That's sad/funny. And he did it on the bench while White took his job. Great news for designated cleanup guy. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 31, 2018 9:34:54 GMT -6
I also just noticed that Sherwin's boy, Gattis, has now passed Correa in OPS. That's sad/funny. And he did it on the bench while White took his job. Great news for designated cleanup guy. Gattis is due for a hot streak at any moment. I wish they'd give Gurriel some time off and let Gattis hit a few HRs. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 31, 2018 9:37:32 GMT -6
And he did it on the bench while White took his job. Great news for designated cleanup guy. Gattis is due for a hot streak at any moment. I wish they'd give Gurriel some time off and let Gattis hit a few HRs. That’s the thing. In the wait for a few homers from Gattis, you have to sit through some K’s, flyouts, and a lot of grounders. I think the big mistake is in ONLY letting Gattis DH. He’s utterly useless when not hitting well. He’s had all these years to figure out and play 1B, but instead they made Gurriel the de facto first baseman. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 31, 2018 9:43:15 GMT -6
Gattis is due for a hot streak at any moment. I wish they'd give Gurriel some time off and let Gattis hit a few HRs. That’s the thing. In the wait for a few homers from Gattis, you have to sit through some K’s, flyouts, and a lot of grounders. I think the big mistake is in ONLY letting Gattis DH. He’s utterly useless when not hitting well. He’s had all these years to figure out and play 1B, but instead they made Gurriel the de facto first baseman. The guy was a reasonable catcher (and hits better when he catches). In fact, he hits better when he has played LF (59 games) than when he is a DH. He's literally at his worst when he only DHs. In 200+ games as a catcher: .270/.322/.537 .859 OPS I wish I knew their issue with him as a backup catcher. Maybe his framing rates are bad... |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 31, 2018 9:51:04 GMT -6
That’s the thing. In the wait for a few homers from Gattis, you have to sit through some K’s, flyouts, and a lot of grounders. I think the big mistake is in ONLY letting Gattis DH. He’s utterly useless when not hitting well. He’s had all these years to figure out and play 1B, but instead they made Gurriel the de facto first baseman. The guy was a reasonable catcher (and hits better when he catches). In fact, he hits better when he has played LF (59 games) than when he is a DH. He's literally at his worst when he only DHs. In 200+ games as a catcher: .270/.322/.537 .859 OPS I wish I knew their issue with him as a backup catcher. Maybe his framing rates are bad... Gattis is a lot more tolerable as a backup catcher or 1B. I don’t understand it either. As it stands, the man is largely unreliable. He had a solid ‘16, and they rewarded him by giving him Beltrán. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 31, 2018 9:51:41 GMT -6
unionstation82 : I know you get frustrated by his streakiness, but look at the production for the value. I don't want to bring him back with a multi-year contract, but he has been a solid, steady, no-nonsense, reasonably-priced DH and partial backup catcher for us, and a good teammate by all accounts. Average season for Gattis as an Astro with an average yearly salary of: $3.9 million 119 Games 420 AB 53 Runs 104 Hits 20 Doubles 3 Triples 24 HR 72 RBI 30 BB 96 Strikeouts .247/.300/.476 .776 OPS 111 OPS+
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 31, 2018 9:54:01 GMT -6
unionstation82 : I know you get frustrated by his streakiness, but look at the production for the value. I don't want to bring him back with a multi-year contract, but he has been a solid, steady, no-nonsense, reasonably-priced DH and partial backup catcher for us, and a good teammate by all accounts. Average season for Gattis as an Astro with an average yearly salary of: $3.9 million 119 Games 420 AB 53 Runs 104 Hits 20 Doubles 3 Triples 24 HR 72 RBI 30 BB 96 Strikeouts .247/.300/.476 .776 OPS 111 OPS+ He’s like a better version of Chris Carter and is obsolete as long as White keeps hitting. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Aug 31, 2018 10:24:53 GMT -6
I wouldn't call it dishonest. I'd maybe call it exaggerated. I feel the need to post warnings anytime I use numbers these days. I like stats, you whiny hipster. Toddy Bear is 100% Millennial. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Aug 31, 2018 10:30:11 GMT -6
That’s the thing. In the wait for a few homers from Gattis, you have to sit through some K’s, flyouts, and a lot of grounders. I think the big mistake is in ONLY letting Gattis DH. He’s utterly useless when not hitting well. He’s had all these years to figure out and play 1B, but instead they made Gurriel the de facto first baseman. The guy was a reasonable catcher (and hits better when he catches). In fact, he hits better when he has played LF (59 games) than when he is a DH. He's literally at his worst when he only DHs. In 200+ games as a catcher: .270/.322/.537 .859 OPS I wish I knew their issue with him as a backup catcher. Maybe his framing rates are bad... Your post right there sums up perfectly why some fans are hesitant to lend any credence to the newer stats. It's the reason I'm so disdainful of WAR. A dude can suck for months, then have a few good games and magically become a high WAR player. In the Gattis situation, your eyeball and mine tell us that he performs better when playing defense. But some made up nonsense (frame rates) keeps him at DH or on the pine. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 31, 2018 10:37:45 GMT -6
I like stats, you whiny hipster. Toddy Bear is 100% Millennial. Hardly. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 31, 2018 10:39:05 GMT -6
The guy was a reasonable catcher (and hits better when he catches). In fact, he hits better when he has played LF (59 games) than when he is a DH. He's literally at his worst when he only DHs. In 200+ games as a catcher: .270/.322/.537 .859 OPS I wish I knew their issue with him as a backup catcher. Maybe his framing rates are bad... Your post right there sums up perfectly why some fans are hesitant to lend any credence to the newer stats. It's the reason I'm so disdainful of WAR. A dude can suck for months, then have a few good games and magically become a high WAR player. In the Gattis situation, your eyeball and mine tell us that he performs better when playing defense. But some made up nonsense (frame rates) keeps him at DH or on the pine. But that's not the case. He had three good months year. He is better more often than he is bad. That's why 'eyeballing" can be so wrong. |
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Post by bearbryant on Aug 31, 2018 10:40:09 GMT -6
My problem with Gattis behind the dish is his mitt and a pitch in the dirt are rarely in the same place at the right time
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Post by Saint on Aug 31, 2018 11:37:09 GMT -6
ɮօʀȶǟʐ"But some made up nonsense (frame rates) keeps him at DH or on the pine." That was just a guess. It could be anything.
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 31, 2018 12:27:37 GMT -6
And he did it on the bench while White took his job. Great news for designated cleanup guy. Gattis is due for a hot streak at any moment. I wish they'd give Gurriel some time off and let Gattis hit a few HRs. l would bench Gurriel, play White at first base, and use Gattis as DH and see what happens. It can't be worse than what Yuli has done since the break. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 31, 2018 12:28:43 GMT -6
Your post right there sums up perfectly why some fans are hesitant to lend any credence to the newer stats. It's the reason I'm so disdainful of WAR. A dude can suck for months, then have a few good games and magically become a high WAR player. In the Gattis situation, your eyeball and mine tell us that he performs better when playing defense. But some made up nonsense (frame rates) keeps him at DH or on the pine. But that's not the case. He had three good months year. He is better more often than he is bad. That's why 'eyeballing" can be so wrong. Gattis didn't have three good months....he had about six good weeks. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 31, 2018 12:33:11 GMT -6
But that's not the case. He had three good months year. He is better more often than he is bad. That's why 'eyeballing" can be so wrong. Gattis didn't have three good months....he had about six good weeks. I don't know the weekly breakdowns, but he had an OPS over .800 each month from May-July while averaging 7 HRs a month. |
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Post by olpapa on Aug 31, 2018 13:05:13 GMT -6
In the Gattis situation, your eyeball and mine tell us that he performs better when playing defense. But some made up nonsense (frame rates) keeps him at DH or on the pine. I totally agree with you on the “made up nonsense.” Spray charts are based on facts. Stats like BA, OBP, SO/W, SO/IP, W/IP, WHIP, XBH% are derived from facts...not from any formula some guy invented...WAR; for example, that supposedly accurately calculates how many wins one player is responsible for more (or less) than some other player over the course of a season or a career..., and not only that, can accurately calculate how much more (or less) valuable Mike Trout is than Babe Ruth was. Really? Come on. The fact that smooth talking player agents have convinced arbitrators to buy into WAR doesn’t change the fact that WAR is just one of many stats that are derived from a formula some guy dreamed up and peddled to the geeks. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Aug 31, 2018 13:10:36 GMT -6
In the Gattis situation, your eyeball and mine tell us that he performs better when playing defense. But some made up nonsense (frame rates) keeps him at DH or on the pine. I totally agree with you on the “made up nonsense.” Spray charts are based on facts. Stats like BA, OBP, SO/W, SO/IP, W/IP, WHIP, XBH% are derived from facts...not from any formula some guy invented...WAR; for example, that supposedly accurately calculates how many wins one player is responsible for more (or less) than some other player over the course of a season or a career..., and not only that, can accurately calculate how much more (or less) valuable Mike Trout is than Babe Ruth was. Really? Come on. The fact that smooth talking player agents have convinced arbitrators to buy into WAR doesn’t change the fact that WAR is just one of many stats that are derived from a formula some guy dreamed up and peddled to the geeks. Uh oh, you just ruined Saint's entire day.  |
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Post by olpapa on Aug 31, 2018 13:14:26 GMT -6
I totally agree with you on the “made up nonsense.” Spray charts are based on facts. Stats like BA, OBP, SO/W, SO/IP, W/IP, WHIP, XBH% are derived from facts...not from any formula some guy invented...WAR; for example, that supposedly accurately calculates how many wins one player is responsible for more (or less) than some other player over the course of a season or a career..., and not only that, can accurately calculate how much more (or less) valuable Mike Trout is than Babe Ruth was. Really? Come on. The fact that smooth talking player agents have convinced arbitrators to buy into WAR doesn’t change the fact that WAR is just one of many stats that are derived from a formula some guy dreamed up and peddled to the geeks. Uh oh, you just ruined Saint's entire day. With all due respect to the sabr disciples, how they can look at those contrived stats and say they are “facts” is beyond me. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 31, 2018 13:52:12 GMT -6
I don't think you can take any one stat (WAR or else-wise) and use that as your total judgement for a player. If that were the case, players like Buxton would be an all-star every year.
Stats are there to help build a picture of a player's value and potential production, as well as tracking what they've already done. They all help try to, as accurately as possible, compare players without bias. Which stats you want to give more or less importance to is up to you.
Personally, I like OPS for hitting production. It's a simple number of how often a player gets on base (OBP, whether by hit or walk or HBP) and how many bases they get when they do get a hit (SLG). A higher OPS, regardless of how they do it, usually indicates better offensive production. A guy that has a .280 AVG but only a .700 OPS (Gurriel) isn't as productive as a guy that hits .250 but has an OPS of .800 (Smoak). That being said, if the total OPS is equal, I prefer the guy with the higher AVG since singles have the potential to generate more base activity than walks. OPS+ is just OPS adjusted for the field of play, and, while I don't believe it is perfect, I think it has some merit. A guy with an .800 OPS at Coors field, is likely not quite as good as a player with an .800 OPS in SF because in the difference of what the higher elevation provides. Just like a guy with a .900 OPS in the Astrodome and its big outfield, was better than a guy with a .900 OPS at Minute Maid. That being said, a guy with a slightly lower OPS but has great success at stealing bases, could be just as productive (or even more so). It all depends on the player and the team makeup.
Defensive stats are still quite a bit a work in progress, imo. The only thing that matters to me is range and fielding percentage for most positions. If they cover a lot of ground and don't make errors, they've got to be pretty good fielders. Arm strength would be a bonus. What defensive metrics try and do is factor in range, etc. to a player's overall numbers since, while a high fielding percentage is good, it doesn't matter if a guy doesn't make any errors if he doesn't get to as many balls in play as other similar fielders.
Stuff like frame rates for catchers may be overrated, but there is merit there too. If catchers are better at pulling more balls into the strikezone, the results for the pitcher are better. Simple math. You can argue how accurately that's tracked, but the reasoning behind the importance is sound.
WAR is just the current attempt to try and place overall value for a player with one total number. It isn't perfect and should never be used alone to completely judge a player. That being said, you rarely find a bad player with a high WAR (5+).
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