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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 21, 2019 21:05:34 GMT -6
My best guess as to new Astros SP's we may see before spring training -- Free agents: Buchholz, Gio Gonzalez, Hellickson, Miley Trade targets: Greinke, Ray, Stroman, Fulmer, MadBum, Minor, Godley, Leake Luhnow probably gets one, maybe two new SP's over the next month. There are some interesting near-MLB-ready guys in the high minors that could make sense trading for too. Depending on how one calculates the 2019 payroll (and there are a few different approaches to it), Luhnow probably has between 25 and 50 million $ to spend without going over the luxury tax threshold. Esp with how high arb rates have been going, I think Luhnow would like to keep extra spending under 30 million this year and that probably means 20 million in the off season and keeping another 10 million in flexibility to make moves during the season. Get Kluber, Lugo and Wilson...and Astros win the WS |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 21, 2019 21:29:01 GMT -6
My best guess as to new Astros SP's we may see before spring training -- Free agents: Buchholz, Gio Gonzalez, Hellickson, Miley Trade targets: Greinke, Ray, Stroman, Fulmer, MadBum, Minor, Godley, Leake Luhnow probably gets one, maybe two new SP's over the next month. There are some interesting near-MLB-ready guys in the high minors that could make sense trading for too. Depending on how one calculates the 2019 payroll (and there are a few different approaches to it), Luhnow probably has between 25 and 50 million $ to spend without going over the luxury tax threshold. Esp with how high arb rates have been going, I think Luhnow would like to keep extra spending under 30 million this year and that probably means 20 million in the off season and keeping another 10 million in flexibility to make moves during the season. Get Kluber, Lugo and Wilson...and Astros win the WS I had forgotten about those guys but they would be good adds as well if the price is right. I could see Kluber and Wilson pitching into the postseason. Lugo, I'm guessing, craps out by September but that would be OK so long as he can carry his workload until then. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 21, 2019 22:21:01 GMT -6
Who'd have ever thought the Astros would ever have to worry about the lux tax?
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 21, 2019 22:48:39 GMT -6
My best guess as to new Astros SP's we may see before spring training -- Free agents: Buchholz, Gio Gonzalez, Hellickson, Miley Trade targets: Greinke, Ray, Stroman, Fulmer, MadBum, Minor, Godley, Leake Luhnow probably gets one, maybe two new SP's over the next month. There are some interesting near-MLB-ready guys in the high minors that could make sense trading for too. Depending on how one calculates the 2019 payroll (and there are a few different approaches to it), Luhnow probably has between 25 and 50 million $ to spend without going over the luxury tax threshold. Esp with how high arb rates have been going, I think Luhnow would like to keep extra spending under 30 million this year and that probably means 20 million in the off season and keeping another 10 million in flexibility to make moves during the season. Get Kluber, Lugo and Wilson...and Astros win the WS Getting any of them would be a help. Luhnow needs to get some pitching help. Haven't heard or read of Luhnow being involved in anything lately. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 21, 2019 23:13:39 GMT -6
Man did Bregman and Verlander ever put there foot in there mouths this time.
When the Catholic school boys full story came out.
O boy
Bregman, Verlander and many other respected people shamed them before the entire story even hit the streets.
I truely hope this is a lesson for Sports and reality stars to stay away far far far away from politics and the FAKE NEWS.
WOW I even called him out"Bregman" on his open Twitter line of questions today.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 21, 2019 23:25:11 GMT -6
I have something new to pass on to you guys.
Someone's wife really really loves Texas.
Any guesses?
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 21, 2019 23:27:21 GMT -6
I have something new to pass on to you guys. Someone's wife really really loves Texas. Any guesses? You mean Reddick's bride, who is worried she will now have to get used to shopping in Kansas City?  |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 21, 2019 23:39:51 GMT -6
Lol
Try Bryce Harpers Wife.
Publicly has said she wants to be in Texas. Loves the state.
Would this be enough for Harper to choose a Texas Team?
Idk. But she has made it known on her Twitter and threw various sights she wants to be in Texas.
Interesting Aye
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 21, 2019 23:46:12 GMT -6
I suspected you were talking about the Harpers.
Only problem is, does her husband know how near-to-impossible it would be for the team to acquire championship-level players to play alongside him if Crane and Luhnow meet his asking price?
The Rangers have the cash to pay what he wants. Maybe she'd be just as happy in Arlington.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 21, 2019 23:51:08 GMT -6
I suspected you were talking about the Harpers. Only problem is, does her husband know how near-to-impossible it would be for the team to acquire championship-level players to play alongside him if Crane and Luhnow meet his asking price? The Rangers have the cash to pay what he wants. Maybe she'd be just as happy in Arlington. I didnt wanna say anything but Joey Gallo is a better friend to him the Bryant. Wink wink Bad thing is the Rangers Gm has said and repeated alot . They will not go after Machado, Harper or Keuchal no matter what. So Back to Philly you go Harper. Unless? |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 0:07:59 GMT -6
I hadn't thought about it before, but if the Mets can get JD Davis to where he can manage even a 5.00 ERA, he could pinch hit for a pitcher who is getting yanked, and then stay in the game to throw off the mound. It only makes sense in games the Mets are losing by a lot of runs, or in some 18-inning marathon where literally the whole regular bullpen has been used up. But it's pretty cool for a manager when that kind of substitution only requires a 1-for-1 swap. In the 18-inning game scenario, Davis could conceivably record the win (from the mound) and hit the game-winning RBI on offense. I don't know that anyone has ever done that before. It has happened many times when pitchers have PH. There have been some good hitting pitchers who have done that. It really wasn't that unusual before the DH was thrust upon us all from Little League to the major. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 0:11:22 GMT -6
My best guess as to new Astros SP's we may see before spring training -- Free agents: Buchholz, Gio Gonzalez, Hellickson, Miley Trade targets: Greinke, Ray, Stroman, Fulmer, MadBum, Minor, Godley, Leake Luhnow probably gets one, maybe two new SP's over the next month. There are some interesting near-MLB-ready guys in the high minors that could make sense trading for too. Depending on how one calculates the 2019 payroll (and there are a few different approaches to it), Luhnow probably has between 25 and 50 million $ to spend without going over the luxury tax threshold. Esp with how high arb rates has been going, I think Luhnow would like to keep extra spending under 30 million this year and that probably means 20 million in the off season and keeping another 10 million in flexibility to make moves during the season. Get Kluber, Lugo and Wilson...and Astros win the WS There are NO guarantees that anyone in the tournament, which is what the MLB playoff has become, will win it. You might improve your chances, but baseball is a fickle sport. The best approach is to get there as often as you can. It's not to go all in in any particular year. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 22, 2019 0:15:17 GMT -6
Lol Try Bryce Harpers Wife. Publicly has said she wants to be in Texas. Loves the state. Would this be enough for Harper to choose a Texas Team? Idk. But she has made it known on her Twitter and threw various sights she wants to be in Texas. Interesting Aye Depends on how much influence his wife has on him........not having to pay a state income tax could also help sway him even though I don't really want him. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 22, 2019 0:19:30 GMT -6
Lol Try Bryce Harpers Wife. Publicly has said she wants to be in Texas. Loves the state. Would this be enough for Harper to choose a Texas Team? Idk. But she has made it known on her Twitter and threw various sights she wants to be in Texas. Interesting Aye Depends on how much influence his wife has on him........not having to pay a state income tax could also help sway him even though I don't really want him. Not that Stroman has any say in the matter... but I'd think that he would love to get out of paying Canadian taxes and enjoy the life of a Houston-based player instead. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 0:26:00 GMT -6
Man did Bregman and Verlander ever put there foot in there mouths this time. When the Catholic school boys full story came out. O boy Bregman, Verlander and many other respected people shamed them before the entire story even hit the streets. I truely hope this is a lesson for Sports and reality stars to stay away far far far away from politics and the FAKE NEWS. WOW I even called him out"Bregman" on his open Twitter line of questions today. It just proves that foolishness is rampant.
"Psalm 14:1 [ For the director of music. Of David. ] The fool says in his heart, “There is no God.” They are corrupt, their deeds are vile; there is no one who does good.
But the left seems to revel in their foolishness.
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 22, 2019 0:29:06 GMT -6
Depends on how much influence his wife has on him........not having to pay a state income tax could also help sway him even though I don't really want him. Not that Stroman has any say in the matter... but I'd think that he would love to get out of paying Canadian taxes and enjoy the life of a Houston-based player instead. Stroman would be a good addition. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 22, 2019 0:29:48 GMT -6
That KC farm is pretty barren so if they're smart, they will use assets like Merrifield, Salvy Perez, and maybe even Soler to get some high-upside guys around the A+/AA level. They might be reluctant to do so if they thought their on-field product would get substantially worse, but the Astros have MLB talent to send them (Kemp, Reddick, Marisnick, maybe Gurriel) so if they take some of those guys and cash, I doubt it seriously impacts their W-L record. It might even improve their MLB record but the main benefit to them is restocking their farm. I think they are set on keeping Perez. Pretty much that. He's become the face of their franchise. A fan favorite and very active in the local community (KC Urban youth baseball, etc). If they were interested in trading him, I'm sure he would be included in the decision-making process. But from past statements, it seems he's very interesting in staying with the Royals until he retires. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 22, 2019 0:39:35 GMT -6
I had been a little concerned the Angels would pick up Keuchel (revenge factor) but now Anaheim is saying their budget is tapped out.
Let Keuchel go to the NL where he can't really be a bother except maybe in the WS.
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Post by paastrosfan on Jan 22, 2019 0:45:35 GMT -6
I had been a little concerned the Angels would pick up Keuchel (revenge factor) but now Anaheim is saying their budget is tapped out. Let Keuchel go to the NL where he can't really be a bother except maybe in the WS. With the Reds probably off the board going on Gray, another team off Dallas' list. It still looks like the Philly boo birds might have a new target. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 22, 2019 0:45:56 GMT -6
I had been a little concerned the Angels would pick up Keuchel (revenge factor) but now Anaheim is saying their budget is tapped out. Let Keuchel go to the NL where he can't really be a bother except maybe in the WS. I hope somebody signs him before we decide to try to bring him back. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 0:51:43 GMT -6
Not that Stroman has any say in the matter... but I'd think that he would love to get out of paying Canadian taxes and enjoy the life of a Houston-based player instead. Stroman would be a good addition. The marketing department would love it. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 0:57:11 GMT -6
I had been a little concerned the Angels would pick up Keuchel (revenge factor) but now Anaheim is saying their budget is tapped out. Let Keuchel go to the NL where he can't really be a bother except maybe in the WS. I hope somebody signs him before we decide to try to bring him back. I wouldn't mind having him back on a short term deal. 3 years or less. I'm just not a fan of long term contracts unless they're heavily discounted. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 22, 2019 1:11:26 GMT -6
Keuchel put up 3.6 WAR last year and a generous estimation of his value contributed over the next 3 seasons would be something like
2019 - 3.2 WAR
2020 - 2.7 WAR
2021 - 2.2 WAR
Or totally 8.1 WAR. Considering the number and quality of young, cheap, controllable pitchers in the Astros system, I'd be loathe to spend more than $40 million to get those 8.1 WAR. That's just a tad over $13 million/year, much less than what Dallas is asking for. If he had taken the QO I'd have been fine with that.
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 1:55:40 GMT -6
Keuchel put up 3.6 WAR last year and a generous estimation of his value contributed over the next 3 seasons would be something like 2019 - 3.2 WAR 2020 - 2.7 WAR 2021 - 2.2 WAR Or totally 8.1 WAR. Considering the number and quality of young, cheap, controllable pitchers in the Astros system, I'd be loathe to spend more than $40 million to get those 8.1 WAR. That's just a tad over $13 million/year, much less than what Dallas is asking for. If he had taken the QO I'd have been fine with that. I might go a little more based on less expectation of reduced WAR, but we're in the same neighborhood. 19 $17M 20 $15M 21 $13M or $45M total. My reductions are basically risk reductions rather than expectations of reduced performance.
That's still about $5M per WAR.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 22, 2019 2:02:17 GMT -6
If Luhnow paid Keuchel $15 million/year I couldn't hold it against him, even though I'd consider it something of an overpay.
Between Armenteros, Valdez, James, Bukauskas, Whitley etc etc I just see a lot of guys who are going to be able to do at least as much as Keuchel can in 2019-2023 so I don't see any point in paying $20 million/year for something the younger guys can do for under $600,000/year up to a few million once they get into arbitration.
Keuchel wants to be paid like he is going to stay a top of rotation starter from 2019 to 2023 but in reality he will probably be more of a middle of rotation guy in 2019-20 and a bottom of rotation guy after that.
Last year Keuchel was 19th amongst qualified starters in WAR and 21st in FIP. This season, I doubt he cracks the MLB Top 20 in those categories and by 2021, he probably won't even be in the Top 30.
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 2:08:35 GMT -6
If Luhnow paid Keuchel $15 million/year I couldn't hold it against him, even though I'd consider it something of an overpay. Between Armenteros, Valdez, James, Bukauskas, Whitley etc etc I just see a lot of guys who are going to be able to do at least as much as Keuchel can in 2019-2023 so I don't see any point in paying $20 million/year for something the younger guys can do for under $600,000/year up to a few million once they get into arbitration. Keuchel wants to be paid like he is going to stay a top of rotation starter from 2019 to 2023 but in reality he will probably be more of a middle of rotation guy in 2019-20 and a bottom of rotation guy after that. Last year Keuchel was 19th amongst qualified starters in WAR and 21st in FIP. This season, I doubt he cracks the MLB Top 20 in those categories and by 2021, he probably won't even be in the Top 30. I'm excited about our pitching prospects as well, but there is value in replacing McCullers this year and at least one of the Verlander/Cole likely departures thereafter. Some of the kids really haven't dominated beyond AA, so even if they eventually help, it might be a couple of more years. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 22, 2019 7:17:45 GMT -6
I would hope that Luhnow is keeping the communication lines with Kansas City open. Since things seem to have stalled on Castellanos and Jose Martinez, another bat to target would be Whit Merrifield. KCR has said they want to hold on to Merrifield in spite of the fact he will be on the wrong side of the age curve during their next run at a division title. Either they're bluffing, or they're being dumb. His trade value will never be higher after what he did last year and leading the league in hits. If the Astros could snag Merrifield, they would have an immediate offensive upgrade over Kemp, Marisnick, Reddick, and likely Gurriel too. Merrifield is pretty flexible insofar as you can play him at 2B but he also has experience in RF and even started 30 or so games in CF last year. If Merrifield and Straw were on the team together this year, the 2019 Astros may well steal 120 bases. That's the kind of speed that often plays a big role in postseason victories. I have a hard time seeing the Astros get a championship if they remain the 26th-fastest (or fourth-slowest, however you want to look at it) team in MLB. I agree with everything you’ve said. Merrifield isn’t the youngest guy, but this team needs to stop relying solely on Altuve for their steals. They’ve got so many with good speed who aren’t great in that department. It would also be nice to use Straw more and not depend on Marisnick for some kind of consistent offense. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 7:36:16 GMT -6
I would hope that Luhnow is keeping the communication lines with Kansas City open. Since things seem to have stalled on Castellanos and Jose Martinez, another bat to target would be Whit Merrifield. KCR has said they want to hold on to Merrifield in spite of the fact he will be on the wrong side of the age curve during their next run at a division title. Either they're bluffing, or they're being dumb. His trade value will never be higher after what he did last year and leading the league in hits. If the Astros could snag Merrifield, they would have an immediate offensive upgrade over Kemp, Marisnick, Reddick, and likely Gurriel too. Merrifield is pretty flexible insofar as you can play him at 2B but he also has experience in RF and even started 30 or so games in CF last year. If Merrifield and Straw were on the team together this year, the 2019 Astros may well steal 120 bases. That's the kind of speed that often plays a big role in postseason victories. I have a hard time seeing the Astros get a championship if they remain the 26th-fastest (or fourth-slowest, however you want to look at it) team in MLB. I agree with everything you’ve said. Merrifield isn’t the youngest guy, but this team needs to stop relying solely on Altuve for their steals. They’ve got so many with good speed who aren’t great in that department. It would also be nice to use Straw more and not depend on Marisnick for some kind of consistent offense. Interesting proposal. He's got just over 2 years on his MLB clock so probably 4 years of CC which would make him expensive from a value standpoint. He would almost have to start to justify it and produce a ROI. But with the acquisition of Brantley, where would you play him? Reddick or Gurriel are the most upgradable and they are both on $10m+ salaries for the next two years and further block the prospects which are stacking up in AA and AAA.
I honestly don't see how we justify it unless some of them are moved in a trade package for pitching.
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Post by m240 on Jan 22, 2019 7:37:23 GMT -6
I am confident that Straw will be on the opening day roster. Kemp and Marisnick will not be on the 40 man roster.
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talshill
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Post by talshill on Jan 22, 2019 8:14:41 GMT -6
I would hope that Luhnow is keeping the communication lines with Kansas City open. Since things seem to have stalled on Castellanos and Jose Martinez, another bat to target would be Whit Merrifield. KCR has said they want to hold on to Merrifield in spite of the fact he will be on the wrong side of the age curve during their next run at a division title. Either they're bluffing, or they're being dumb. His trade value will never be higher after what he did last year and leading the league in hits. If the Astros could snag Merrifield, they would have an immediate offensive upgrade over Kemp, Marisnick, Reddick, and likely Gurriel too. Merrifield is pretty flexible insofar as you can play him at 2B but he also has experience in RF and even started 30 or so games in CF last year. If Merrifield and Straw were on the team together this year, the 2019 Astros may well steal 120 bases. That's the kind of speed that often plays a big role in postseason victories. I have a hard time seeing the Astros get a championship if they remain the 26th-fastest (or fourth-slowest, however you want to look at it) team in MLB. I agree with everything you’ve said. Merrifield isn’t the youngest guy, but this team needs to stop relying solely on Altuve for their steals. They’ve got so many with good speed who aren’t great in that department. It would also be nice to use Straw more and not depend on Marisnick for some kind of consistent offense. I think the lack of stolen bases is probably intentional. They've probably come to the conclusion that it's better to not risk being thrown out and wait for someone to yank one over the wall. I've seen some SABR guys argue that SB's are not very valuable, so maybe Hinch and Company have bought into that philosophy. |
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