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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2019 8:15:57 GMT -6
I'm genuinely curious how long Keuchel will hold out signing below what he wants from a dollar and contract length standpoint? I just wonder since we could use the pitching help next season if it would be worth it to just bring Keuchel back on a one year deal and then he can test FA again next off season.
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talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
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Post by talshill on Jan 22, 2019 8:16:19 GMT -6
Who'd have ever thought the Astros would ever have to worry about the lux tax? Especially since we were assured a couple of short years ago that ownership was "cheap" and would "never spend the money for a competitive team". |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 22, 2019 8:25:53 GMT -6
This is how I would try to arrange the OD roster if I were in Luhnow's shoes and a trade with KC were possible. If it weren't I'd try to arrange something with DET, STL, or SDP to get Castellanos/Martinez/Renfroe.
C Chirinos
C Stassi
2B Altuve
3B Bregman
SS Correa
DH/UT White
1B/UT Merrifield
OF Brantley
OF Springer
OF Tucker
OF Straw
UT Diaz
TR Gurriel
TR Reddick
AAA Marisnick
TR Kemp
Now that does require three players to be traded, two of whom carry significant price tags. Marisnick of course can only spend about 6 weeks at Round Rock but if he's not traded first then why not keep him there. Probably some cash has to be included to get teams to take Gurriel and Reddick but the upgrade is probably worth it.
Especially if Stassi gets upgraded to Realmuto, that's a very scary lineup if you are a pitcher. The idea is Merrifield would start at 1B for 120 games, rests for 12 games, spends 15 games spelling Altuve at 2B and another 15 or so at DH.
With this arrangement, Merrifield probably steals 40 bases, Straw 30, and the rest of the team 60 for a total of 130. That should easily put the Astros in the MLB Top 3 in the SB department.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 22, 2019 8:32:06 GMT -6
Sabermetrics frowns on guys attempting steals when they don't have a very high chance of success. I forget what SABR says the cutoff is but I think it's something like you need to expect a 75% success rate to make it worth your while.
For guys like Gurriel and Springer, therefore, it's not generally a good idea to steal. But for Merrifield and Straw, it makes sense.
There can be some exceptions of course. Remember when McCann stole a base a couple years ago? Tyler White stole a few a couple years ago too, but at AAA. In those cases it usually has to do with something quirky about the pitcher's delivery and the opposing catcher being known to have a weak throwing arm.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 22, 2019 8:56:48 GMT -6
Just trying to think of who the minor league depth pieces would be in case of multiple injuries. Am I missing anyone?
OF depth: (Marisnick – first 6 weeks), Derek Fisher, Yordan Alvarez, Chas McCormick, Ronnie Dawson, Carmen Benedetti
IF depth: AJ Reed, SuperJack Mayfield, Alex De Goti, Taylor Jones, Randy Cesar
C Depth: Stubbs, Ritchie, Quintana
Of course, more guys could be added to the list by way of minor league trades or FA signings.
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 22, 2019 8:59:07 GMT -6
I hope somebody signs him before we decide to try to bring him back. I wouldn't mind having him back on a short term deal. 3 years or less. I'm just not a fan of long term contracts unless they're heavily discounted. I am not a fan of long-term contracts, either. I am also not a fan of bringing back a batting practice pitcher, which is what Keuchel has turned into since his Cy Young season. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 22, 2019 9:03:57 GMT -6
This is how I would try to arrange the OD roster if I were in Luhnow's shoes and a trade with KC were possible. If it weren't I'd try to arrange something with DET, STL, or SDP to get Castellanos/Martinez/Renfroe. C Chirinos C Stassi 2B Altuve 3B Bregman SS Correa DH/UT White 1B/UT Merrifield OF Brantley OF Springer OF Tucker OF Straw UT Diaz TR Gurriel TR Reddick AAA Marisnick TR Kemp Now that does require three players to be traded, two of whom carry significant price tags. Marisnick of course can only spend about 6 weeks at Round Rock but if he's not traded first then why not keep him there. Probably some cash has to be included to get teams to take Gurriel and Reddick but the upgrade is probably worth it. Especially if Stassi gets upgraded to Realmuto, that's a very scary lineup if you are a pitcher. The idea is Merrifield would start at 1B for 120 games, rests for 12 games, spends 15 games spelling Altuve at 2B and another 15 or so at DH. With this arrangement, Merrifield probably steals 40 bases, Straw 30, and the rest of the team 60 for a total of 130. That should easily put the Astros in the MLB Top 3 in the SB department. I doubt if we are even trying to deal for Merrifield...even though I wish we could get him.........I don't understand why you or anyone else wants to trade Gurriel. I am still not sold on White. I would try to trade him, Stassi, and Kemp. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 22, 2019 9:22:40 GMT -6
This is how I would try to arrange the OD roster if I were in Luhnow's shoes and a trade with KC were possible. If it weren't I'd try to arrange something with DET, STL, or SDP to get Castellanos/Martinez/Renfroe. C Chirinos C Stassi 2B Altuve 3B Bregman SS Correa DH/UT White 1B/UT Merrifield OF Brantley OF Springer OF Tucker OF Straw UT Diaz TR Gurriel TR Reddick AAA Marisnick TR Kemp Now that does require three players to be traded, two of whom carry significant price tags. Marisnick of course can only spend about 6 weeks at Round Rock but if he's not traded first then why not keep him there. Probably some cash has to be included to get teams to take Gurriel and Reddick but the upgrade is probably worth it. Especially if Stassi gets upgraded to Realmuto, that's a very scary lineup if you are a pitcher. The idea is Merrifield would start at 1B for 120 games, rests for 12 games, spends 15 games spelling Altuve at 2B and another 15 or so at DH. With this arrangement, Merrifield probably steals 40 bases, Straw 30, and the rest of the team 60 for a total of 130. That should easily put the Astros in the MLB Top 3 in the SB department. I doubt if we are even trying to deal for Merrifield...even though I wish we could get him.........I don't understand why you or anyone else wants to trade Gurriel. I am still not sold on White. I would try to trade him, Stassi, and Kemp. Theres alot of factors to why you trade Gurriel how dont you see it? I've been saying it for months. He and Reddick both need to go. The three main fa tours I would tell you on Gurriel: 1. AGE vs Contract. He is getting older almost 36 yrs old. He is surely to decline rather rapidly. Plus he makes close to 21m over the next two years. So using that he iant worth that to this team. 2. You already have his replacement on hand he needs to play everyday. Not half asked. Tyler White needs to be at 1B everyday doing everything he can to improve his DEF. 3. You might wanna move him while you could get Value. His value over all as a DEF 1B with a below avg bat. You might get alittle value. It's better to do so sooner rather then later. If you are wanting to sign high end players you better have the value of there co tracks now days. It's stupid to sign aging players to those type of deals. Stop living in his past and see his decline. Gurriel and Reddick both need to be traded away to open the house to the new guys on the block. You need Tucker starting everyday to get his legs under him. So why keep Reddi two more years? Same with Gurriel, you have White who shows you the avg bat with some pop in the clutch. Why leave him to just spot duties? Let this guy play all year let's see him play. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 22, 2019 9:23:32 GMT -6
If Merrifield couldn't be had and assuming no other position players are added, then I'd agree with keeping Gurriel. He stands to have more power this year now that his hand has fully healed, but he is on the wrong side of the aging curve so things will tend to get harder for him.
The rationale for trading Gurriel if Merrifield came to the Astros is:
- His expected offensive production (.741 OPS according to Bref, .752 acc to Steamer) is well below championship level, and well below what can be expected of White and Merrifield
- He is a GIDP machine, grounding into the DP nearly 18% of the time compared with the 11% MLB average... this is just a product of his batting style
- He's one of the league's most impatient hitters, which generates lots of 1- and 2-pitch outs. The cumulative effect of this is that he lets pitchers go deeper into games than they really should be able to go... meaning the Astros don't get to work toward the weak end of the bullpen as well
- The impatience also causes him not to walk very much, which means he will give you a decent BA but poor OBP.
As for White, honestly, I don't think he wants anyone to trust him. Everyone distrusted him in A ball so he led his team in hitting and made it to AA. Everyone doubted him at AA so he raked at that level too at AAA. At which point people predicted he would flame out, but he won PCL Hitter of the Year... and so on and so forth. He is at his best when people predict his failure. White is probably good at least for 120 OPS+ this year where as with Yuli I think we'd be lucky to see 110.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 22, 2019 9:29:53 GMT -6
This is the exact reasowhy I would think Nick Castellanos, Marcus Stroman or even God forbid Bryce Harper or maybe J.T. Realmuto could all be had.
It's like this
Would you sign Bryce Harper to a 7yr deal 330 with opt outs after the 3rd and 4th year of his contract. And trade Kyle Tucker for J.T. Realmuto ?
Theres alot of ifs and whens, when you look at a deal like that.
Because then you gotta look at George Springer. In two years when Brantley leaves do you move Springer to RF and resign him to play at what ever level he may think he is worth?
So then you have to plan for CF? Will straw be that Guy? What about Kemp or some other out side guy?
Money vs the postion equaling out the high end contract with a Rookie with low cost.
Theres way to many chess pieces to play.
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Post by paastrosfan on Jan 22, 2019 9:51:16 GMT -6
Keuchel put up 3.6 WAR last year and a generous estimation of his value contributed over the next 3 seasons would be something like 2019 - 3.2 WAR 2020 - 2.7 WAR 2021 - 2.2 WAR Or totally 8.1 WAR. Considering the number and quality of young, cheap, controllable pitchers in the Astros system, I'd be loathe to spend more than $40 million to get those 8.1 WAR. That's just a tad over $13 million/year, much less than what Dallas is asking for. If he had taken the QO I'd have been fine with that. In the end Dallas will probably end up with a deal that looks like Arrieta's. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 22, 2019 9:53:16 GMT -6
You I only resign Springer if he accepts a 3yr deal. I wouldnt go any higher then that. But that's when he becomes a FA at the 2021 season.
Some of you are like sign him to a 5 to 6 year deal he is worth it. Um NO.
You really wanna resign a guy who would be 31 to a 5 to 6 year deal with money that would be not near the norm? Think about that. That's what everyone is saying when it comes to players. No more back loaded long term deals for aging vets
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 22, 2019 9:53:56 GMT -6
As far as White vs Gurriel goes in terms of defense... I know the eye test isn't kind to White, but by most statistical measures like UZR and Fielding Pct, White is superior to Gurriel at 1B. White's range isn't very good but he is good at picking balls out of the dirt, and rarely makes an error at 1B.
I could see White improving for the next year or two at 1B but for Gurriel, it's really tough to improve defensively at this point. The guy's under contract for 4 more seasons and it's hard to imagine him being much of a defender at age 39.
His best bet would be to attend the Alex Bregman School of Plate Discipline so that he starts seeing close to 5 pitches per PA (on avg). That will give him a lot more walks to boost his OBP/OPS. At least that way he could remain relevant as a DH/PH.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 22, 2019 9:54:06 GMT -6
Keuchel put up 3.6 WAR last year and a generous estimation of his value contributed over the next 3 seasons would be something like 2019 - 3.2 WAR 2020 - 2.7 WAR 2021 - 2.2 WAR Or totally 8.1 WAR. Considering the number and quality of young, cheap, controllable pitchers in the Astros system, I'd be loathe to spend more than $40 million to get those 8.1 WAR. That's just a tad over $13 million/year, much less than what Dallas is asking for. If he had taken the QO I'd have been fine with that. In the end Dallas will probably end up with a deal that looks like Arrieta's. Maybe so. But please not with Houston. Please please please. he isnt worth near that |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 22, 2019 9:57:26 GMT -6
So the Marlins are said (acc to Heyman) to be looking for a lefty bat. Reddick? Florida is pretty close to his home state. And I think they get WWE on cable there, not sure.
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Post by paastrosfan on Jan 22, 2019 9:57:55 GMT -6
In the end Dallas will probably end up with a deal that looks like Arrieta's. Maybe so. But please not with Houston. Please please please. he isnt worth near that Another way you could look at what the market will pay for Dallas, of the big spenders left throwing the money around, how much will be left in the pot. |
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Post by abregmanfan on Jan 22, 2019 10:01:26 GMT -6
Maybe so. But please not with Houston. Please please please. he isnt worth near that Another way you could look at what the market will pay for Dallas, of the big spenders left throwing the money around, how much will be left in the pot. I still think Dallas will end up in Philly. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2019 10:02:16 GMT -6
Another way you could look at what the market will pay for Dallas, of the big spenders left throwing the money around, how much will be left in the pot. I still think Dallas will end up in Philly. I tend to agree. However once it's all said and done I do not think he will get the contract length he wants. |
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Post by abregmanfan on Jan 22, 2019 10:04:18 GMT -6
I still think Dallas will end up in Philly. I tend to agree. However once it's all said and done I do not think he will get the contract length he wants. My second choice is the Twins. |
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Post by m240 on Jan 22, 2019 10:05:44 GMT -6
This is the exact reasowhy I would think Nick Castellanos, Marcus Stroman or even God forbid Bryce Harper or maybe J.T. Realmuto could all be had. It's like this Would you sign Bryce Harper to a 7yr deal 330 with opt outs after the 3rd and 4th year of his contract. And trade Kyle Tucker for J.T. Realmuto ? Theres alot of ifs and whens, when you look at a deal like that. Because then you gotta look at George Springer. In two years when Brantley leaves do you move Springer to RF and resign him to play at what ever level he may think he is worth? So then you have to plan for CF? Will straw be that Guy? What about Kemp or some other out side guy? Money vs the postion equaling out the high end contract with a Rookie with low cost. Theres way to many chess pieces to play. Man I would love to have Castellanos, Stroman, Harper, and Realmuto all on our roster. But getting even one of those deals done would be more than I expect at this point. I do feel though that what will happen before a trade for one of those three guys will be a couple of smaller trades of guys like Kemp, Fisher, Reed, Martes, or Marisnick for low A and high A prospects. Those guys then could be used as extras in a bigger trade or to off set the loss of the guys that the Blue Jays, Tigers or Marlins want from our system. |
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Post by m240 on Jan 22, 2019 10:06:47 GMT -6
Keuchel put up 3.6 WAR last year and a generous estimation of his value contributed over the next 3 seasons would be something like 2019 - 3.2 WAR 2020 - 2.7 WAR 2021 - 2.2 WAR Or totally 8.1 WAR. Considering the number and quality of young, cheap, controllable pitchers in the Astros system, I'd be loathe to spend more than $40 million to get those 8.1 WAR. That's just a tad over $13 million/year, much less than what Dallas is asking for. If he had taken the QO I'd have been fine with that. In the end Dallas will probably end up with a deal that looks like Arrieta's. I agree but maybe just a little south of what he got |
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Post by abregmanfan on Jan 22, 2019 10:12:36 GMT -6
No chance Harper will be on the Astros.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 22, 2019 10:24:06 GMT -6
This is the exact reasowhy I would think Nick Castellanos, Marcus Stroman or even God forbid Bryce Harper or maybe J.T. Realmuto could all be had. It's like this Would you sign Bryce Harper to a 7yr deal 330 with opt outs after the 3rd and 4th year of his contract. And trade Kyle Tucker for J.T. Realmuto ? Theres alot of ifs and whens, when you look at a deal like that. Because then you gotta look at George Springer. In two years when Brantley leaves do you move Springer to RF and resign him to play at what ever level he may think he is worth? So then you have to plan for CF? Will straw be that Guy? What about Kemp or some other out side guy? Money vs the postion equaling out the high end contract with a Rookie with low cost. Theres way to many chess pieces to play. Man I would love to have Castellanos, Stroman, Harper, and Realmuto all on our roster. But getting even one of those deals done would be more than I expect at this point. I do feel though that what will happen before a trade for one of those three guys will be a couple of smaller trades of guys like Kemp, Fisher, Reed, Martes, or Marisnick for low A and high A prospects. Those guys then could be used as extras in a bigger trade or to off set the loss of the guys that the Blue Jays, Tigers or Marlins want from our system. I'm not saying all of them I'm just saying any of them could be added you just have to look forward any deal yo how you will maneuver around your roster with prospects for impacts. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 22, 2019 10:26:57 GMT -6
This is the exact reasowhy I would think Nick Castellanos, Marcus Stroman or even God forbid Bryce Harper or maybe J.T. Realmuto could all be had. It's like this Would you sign Bryce Harper to a 7yr deal 330 with opt outs after the 3rd and 4th year of his contract. And trade Kyle Tucker for J.T. Realmuto ? Theres alot of ifs and whens, when you look at a deal like that. Because then you gotta look at George Springer. In two years when Brantley leaves do you move Springer to RF and resign him to play at what ever level he may think he is worth? So then you have to plan for CF? Will straw be that Guy? What about Kemp or some other out side guy? Money vs the postion equaling out the high end contract with a Rookie with low cost. Theres way to many chess pieces to play. Man I would love to have Castellanos, Stroman, Harper, and Realmuto all on our roster. But getting even one of those deals done would be more than I expect at this point. I do feel though that what will happen before a trade for one of those three guys will be a couple of smaller trades of guys like Kemp, Fisher, Reed, Martes, or Marisnick for low A and high A prospects. Those guys then could be used as extras in a bigger trade or to off set the loss of the guys that the Blue Jays, Tigers or Marlins want from our system. Guys on the 40-man it would be nice to clear off include Deetz, Rodgers, Devo, (maybe) Guduan, and Marisnick. I'd add Kemp and Gurriel too if obvious replacements should come over through trade or FA acquisition. I'd kind of like to see Reed and Fisher get cleared out, but the problem is that if there are multiple injuries on the 25-man, Reed and Fisher at least have MLB experience. Whereas if they are gone, then suddenly we could be seeing Alvarez, Mayfield, De Goti, etc. out there. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 22, 2019 10:27:36 GMT -6
No chance Harper will be on the Astros. I wouldnt say no chance. I would say 75% chance it wont happen. There never 100% not gonna happen. Bryce Hatper has said he is very intrigued by the Astros. His wife has said she would love to be in Texas. Harper has also said he wants to know what's in the teams Minor league system who comming up to play in his future. Do the Astros Fit any of that? Also not that the Astros have been looking for a big time bat for years. Js never under estimate Crane and Lunhow |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 22, 2019 10:29:58 GMT -6
Man I would love to have Castellanos, Stroman, Harper, and Realmuto all on our roster. But getting even one of those deals done would be more than I expect at this point. I do feel though that what will happen before a trade for one of those three guys will be a couple of smaller trades of guys like Kemp, Fisher, Reed, Martes, or Marisnick for low A and high A prospects. Those guys then could be used as extras in a bigger trade or to off set the loss of the guys that the Blue Jays, Tigers or Marlins want from our system. Guys on the 40-man it would be nice to clear off include Deetz, Rodgers, Devo, (maybe) Guduan, and Marisnick. I'd add Kemp and Gurriel too if obvious replacements should come over through trade or FA acquisition. I'd kind of like to see Reed and Fisher get cleared out, but the problem is that if there are multiple injuries on the 25-man, Reed and Fisher at least have MLB experience. Whereas if they are gone, then suddenly we could be seeing Alvarez, Mayfield, De Goti, etc. out there. Exactly. Finally I get someone to see the future aspect of things.. Fisher should have been gone along time ago. The current roster cant hold all allstars. But it could be unblocked by aging vets or not so great youth to add an allstar or two |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 22, 2019 10:34:23 GMT -6
I wouldn't be surprised if Luhnow goes and gets a AAAA journeyman like Danny Worth or Reid Brignac to play as an emergency backup in Round Rock. Esp if Reed/Fisher get traded.
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Post by m240 on Jan 22, 2019 11:54:29 GMT -6
So let's say it is Feb 14 and we have not added any pitchers and Boras comes with hat in hand and says Keuchel would like to sign the qualifying offer that you extended to him. Would you do it?
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marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 12:32:06 GMT -6
I agree with everything you’ve said. Merrifield isn’t the youngest guy, but this team needs to stop relying solely on Altuve for their steals. They’ve got so many with good speed who aren’t great in that department. It would also be nice to use Straw more and not depend on Marisnick for some kind of consistent offense. I think the lack of stolen bases is probably intentional. They've probably come to the conclusion that it's better to not risk being thrown out and wait for someone to yank one over the wall. I've seen some SABR guys argue that SB's are not very valuable, so maybe Hinch and Company have bought into that philosophy. I think they know that the SB is only beneficial in limited circumstances rather than as a general goal when considering the benefits lost with stolen bases. But they do see the advantage of having a Fisher/Tucker/Straw running in the late innings and often substitute in those situations. But it's usually to advance the extra base rather than steal a base. |
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Post by Saint on Jan 22, 2019 12:50:56 GMT -6
So let's say it is Feb 14 and we have not added any pitchers and Boras comes with hat in hand and says Keuchel would like to sign the qualifying offer that you extended to him. Would you do it? No. I'd try to work out a 2-year deal for $30 million. |
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