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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 22, 2019 12:54:48 GMT -6
Has Guduan ever done anything to warrant him keeping a spot on any roster? I can not remember ever being impressed with an outing of his.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 22, 2019 12:55:19 GMT -6
So let's say it is Feb 14 and we have not added any pitchers and Boras comes with hat in hand and says Keuchel would like to sign the qualifying offer that you extended to him. Would you do it? Nope |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 12:55:24 GMT -6
I wouldn't mind having him back on a short term deal. 3 years or less. I'm just not a fan of long term contracts unless they're heavily discounted. I am not a fan of long-term contracts, either. I am also not a fan of bringing back a batting practice pitcher, which is what Keuchel has turned into since his Cy Young season. You keep repeating that, but the numbers don't support that argument.
Year IP ERA+ WAR
2012 85.1 77 -0.1
2013 153.2 78 -0.1
2014 200 132 4.8
2015 232 157 6.7
2016 168 86 0.4
2017 145.2 141 3.9
2018 204.2 108 2.6
He's been a middle of the rotation starter at worst and much better at times. But never a BP pitcher. He's not a Verlander/Cole but he's definitely useful at the right price.
That's pretty much where my estimate of value falls with a middle rotation guy at $10M and an ace at $20M. Split the difference and you have $15M/yr.
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 13:01:09 GMT -6
So let's say it is Feb 14 and we have not added any pitchers and Boras comes with hat in hand and says Keuchel would like to sign the qualifying offer that you extended to him. Would you do it? No. I'd try to work out a 2-year deal for $30 million. I'd throw it back into their court with a choice of 1Yr 17M or 2 yr $10M $10M with a $10M signing bonus to leave maximum flexibility next year to try resigning Verlander and/or Cole or extend Springer. If the nuances of payroll calculations require, even a $20M $10M two year option without a signing bonus may be preferable to provide that flexibility. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 13:21:52 GMT -6
As far as White vs Gurriel goes in terms of defense... I know the eye test isn't kind to White, but by most statistical measures like UZR and Fielding Pct, White is superior to Gurriel at 1B. White's range isn't very good but he is good at picking balls out of the dirt, and rarely makes an error at 1B. I could see White improving for the next year or two at 1B but for Gurriel, it's really tough to improve defensively at this point. The guy's under contract for 4 more seasons and it's hard to imagine him being much of a defender at age 39.
His best bet would be to attend the Alex Bregman School of Plate Discipline so that he starts seeing close to 5 pitches per PA (on avg). That will give him a lot more walks to boost his OBP/OPS. At least that way he could remain relevant as a DH/PH. I think you have him confused with someone else. Gurriel is under contract through the 2020 season for $10.4M and $8.4M.
I wouldn't mind seeing them split time between 1B and DH; however, but keep them both in the lineup, particularly vs lefties.
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 22, 2019 13:31:02 GMT -6
So let's say it is Feb 14 and we have not added any pitchers and Boras comes with hat in hand and says Keuchel would like to sign the qualifying offer that you extended to him. Would you do it? No. I'd try to work out a 2-year deal for $30 million. I would try for your idea first, because of the rotation situation next year... |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 13:56:08 GMT -6
This is the exact reasowhy I would think Nick Castellanos, Marcus Stroman or even God forbid Bryce Harper or maybe J.T. Realmuto could all be had. It's like this Would you sign Bryce Harper to a 7yr deal 330 with opt outs after the 3rd and 4th year of his contract. And trade Kyle Tucker for J.T. Realmuto ? Theres alot of ifs and whens, when you look at a deal like that. Because then you gotta look at George Springer. In two years when Brantley leaves do you move Springer to RF and resign him to play at what ever level he may think he is worth? So then you have to plan for CF? Will straw be that Guy? What about Kemp or some other out side guy? Money vs the postion equaling out the high end contract with a Rookie with low cost. Theres way to many chess pieces to play. I wouldn't even pay Trout 7 Yr $330M, much less Harper. That's essentially 1/4 of you entire payroll at $47M+ per year. You'd have your star and no ability to add the components to make a championship team.
Even the best players in baseball can be overpaid and wind up with a negative valuation. If you pay a $30M player $45M, that's a negative $15M value on a great player.
ps It's not collusion when all the owners wake up to the negative effects of long term high dollar contracts about the same time. Realistically, how many of those high dollar long term contracts work out over the long haul? I suspect very few.
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 22, 2019 14:06:24 GMT -6
This is the exact reasowhy I would think Nick Castellanos, Marcus Stroman or even God forbid Bryce Harper or maybe J.T. Realmuto could all be had. It's like this Would you sign Bryce Harper to a 7yr deal 330 with opt outs after the 3rd and 4th year of his contract. And trade Kyle Tucker for J.T. Realmuto ? Theres alot of ifs and whens, when you look at a deal like that. Because then you gotta look at George Springer. In two years when Brantley leaves do you move Springer to RF and resign him to play at what ever level he may think he is worth? So then you have to plan for CF? Will straw be that Guy? What about Kemp or some other out side guy? Money vs the postion equaling out the high end contract with a Rookie with low cost. Theres way to many chess pieces to play. I wouldn't even pay Trout 7 Yr $330M, much less Harper. That's essentially 1/4 of you entire payroll at $47M+ per year. You'd have your star and no ability to add the components to make a championship team.
Even the best players in baseball can be overpaid and wind up with a negative valuation. If you pay a $30M player $45M, that's a negative $15M value on a great player.
Way no on Harper, but for Trout, once in a lifetime talent, yes and not even blinking...even the A's would do it. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 14:10:28 GMT -6
I wouldn't even pay Trout 7 Yr $330M, much less Harper. That's essentially 1/4 of you entire payroll at $47M+ per year. You'd have your star and no ability to add the components to make a championship team.
Even the best players in baseball can be overpaid and wind up with a negative valuation. If you pay a $30M player $45M, that's a negative $15M value on a great player.
Way no on Harper, but for Trout, once in a lifetime talent, yes and not even blinking...even the A's would do it. If either gets that kind of money, they will never be a WS winner.
See Pujols for another can't miss once in a generation player after signing a huge long term high dollar contract.
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 22, 2019 14:25:42 GMT -6
Way no on Harper, but for Trout, once in a lifetime talent, yes and not even blinking...even the A's would do it. If either gets that kind of money, they will never be a WS winner.
See Pujols for another can't miss once in a generation player after signing a huge long term high dollar contract.
Trout will be 29 when he is a FA, and signing Trout for 7 year deal will be way better deal than was signing a 10 year deal to a 31 year old Pujols. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 14:26:59 GMT -6
Which of these contracts turned out to be worth it?
1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27)
2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17)
3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10)
4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23)
5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21)
… Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23)
7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23)
8. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22)
9. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)
10. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20)
11. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21)
12. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21)
13. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10)
14. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18)
. . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23)
16. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16)
. . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19)
18. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19)
. . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23)
20. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21)
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 22, 2019 14:32:46 GMT -6
Which of these contracts turned out to be worth it? 1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27) 2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17) 3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10) 4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23) 5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21) … Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23) 7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23) 8. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22) 9. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20) 10. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20) 11. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21) 12. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21) 13. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10) 14. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18) . . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23) 16. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16) . . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19) 18. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19) . . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23) 20. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21) Votto, First A-Rod, Kershaw, Scherzer (so far), Jeter, Verlander....maybe Stanton.. |
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talshill
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Post by talshill on Jan 22, 2019 14:43:51 GMT -6
I wouldn't be surprised if Luhnow goes and gets a AAAA journeyman like Danny Worth or Reid Brignac to play as an emergency backup in Round Rock. Esp if Reed/Fisher get traded. OMG REID BRIGNAC. A couple of years ago someone on here (I think it was Voodoo) was telling me that Reid Brignac and Alex Bregman were equivalent players. Man, I wish I could get into the MLB message board archives. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 14:48:14 GMT -6
Which of these contracts turned out to be worth it? 1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27) 2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17) 3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10) 4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23) 5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21) … Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23) 7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23) 8. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22) 9. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20) 10. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20) 11. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21) 12. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21) 13. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10) 14. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18) . . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23) 16. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16) . . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19) 18. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19) . . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23) 20. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21) Votto, First A-Rod, Kershaw, Scherzer (so far), Jeter, Verlander....maybe Stanton.. So maybe 1/3rd turn out OK. And those which are OK receive performance close to the actual value of the contracts. The risk-reward just isn't there for people who are spending their own money. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 22, 2019 14:50:03 GMT -6
Which of these contracts turned out to be worth it? 1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27) 2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17) 3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10) 4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23) 5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21) … Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23) 7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23) 8. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22) 9. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20) 10. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20) 11. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21) 12. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21) 13. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10) 14. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18) . . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23) 16. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16) . . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19) 18. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19) . . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23) 20. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21) You can't base your valuation only on on-field value. Signing some of these big stars brings in potentially millions of dollars from fans in the form of ticket sales, merch sales, etc. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 22, 2019 14:58:48 GMT -6
Braves sign Nick Markakis 1yr 6m
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 22, 2019 15:04:43 GMT -6
Dodgers said to be still in on J.T. Realmuto.
According to sources Marlins have lowered there price.
Dodgers #2 prospect C Keibert Ruiz number 39 overall of baseball is the Target.
Word is Dodgers think Ruiz might be MLB ready and would be more inclined to move Will Smith there 5th overall Prospect instead in a much larger package.
-----------------------------------------
Note Yordan Alveraz Astros #3 Prospect 42 overall
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 22, 2019 15:05:53 GMT -6
Which of these contracts turned out to be worth it? 1. Giancarlo Stanton, $325,000,000 (2015-27) 2. Alex Rodriguez, $275,000,000 (2008-17) 3. Alex Rodriguez, $252,000,000 (2001-10) 4. Miguel Cabrera, $248,000,000 (2016-23) 5. Albert Pujols, $240,000,000 (2012-21) … Robinson Cano, $240,000,000 (2014-23) 7. Joey Votto, $225,000,000 (2014-23) 8. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22) 9. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20) 10. Prince Fielder, $214,000,000 (2012-20) 11. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21) 12. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21) 13. Derek Jeter, $189,000,000 (2001-10) 14. Joe Mauer, $184,000,000 (2011-18) . . . Jason Heyward, $184,000,000 (2016-23) 16. Mark Teixeira, $180,000,000 (2009-16) . . . Justin Verlander, $180,000,000 (2013-19) 18. Felix Hernandez, $175,000,000 (2013-19) . . . Stephen Strasburg, $175,000,000 (2017-23) 20. Buster Posey, $167,000,000 (2013-21) You can't base your valuation only on on-field value. Signing some of these big stars brings in potentially millions of dollars from fans in the form of ticket sales, merch sales, etc. While true, those sales too are tied to on field performance. I wonder how many Angels fans are buying Pujols jerseys right now? He still getting $87M over the next 3 years and then a $10M personal services contract after that.
That's a $97M Albert-ross hanging around their neck.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 22, 2019 15:07:08 GMT -6
Dont get me wrong those big contracts are scary. you would hope the player opts out every chance there is. I wouldnt sign anyone for 300+ period not even trout.
Sorry I just wouldnt. All I say about Trout is "Hows Jio Mier, working out for you".
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 22, 2019 15:15:18 GMT -6
Braves sign Nick Markakis 1yr 6m Good value |
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Post by Saint on Jan 22, 2019 15:22:04 GMT -6
You can't base your valuation only on on-field value. Signing some of these big stars brings in potentially millions of dollars from fans in the form of ticket sales, merch sales, etc. While true, those sales too are tied to on field performance. I wonder how many Angels fans are buying Pujols jerseys right now? He still getting $87M over the next 3 years and then a $10M personal services contract after that.
That's a $97M Albert-ross hanging around their neck.
Yeah but people will still come to see his remaining games (like we did for Biggio) even if he struggles and the team sucks. Plus it doesn't factor in intangibles that a veteran like Pujols brings. Plus, sometimes a contract may be vastly overpaid in order to get them for a few playoff-caliber seasons knowing you'll have to eat some on the back end for the early success. The long-term benefits might be worth it. Depends on the team and their success. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 22, 2019 15:31:58 GMT -6
Rangers sign Zack McAllister
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 22, 2019 16:47:20 GMT -6
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 22, 2019 17:01:31 GMT -6
So let's say it is Feb 14 and we have not added any pitchers and Boras comes with hat in hand and says Keuchel would like to sign the qualifying offer that you extended to him. Would you do it? No. I'd try to work out a 2-year deal for $30 million. I would gulp hard and do it, but, I would hate it. He's better than nothing I suppose. Surely, we can do better. |
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Post by abregmanfan on Jan 22, 2019 17:15:19 GMT -6
No. I'd try to work out a 2-year deal for $30 million. I would gulp hard and do it, but, I would hate it. He's better than nothing I suppose. Surely, we can do better. I would love to do it. Got to have arms. |
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Post by abregmanfan on Jan 22, 2019 17:15:55 GMT -6
This belongs in the farm report. Lol |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 22, 2019 17:21:00 GMT -6
Mussina, Edgar, Doc and Mariano just announced as HOFers.
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 22, 2019 17:21:26 GMT -6
This belongs in the farm report. Lol Move it then. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 22, 2019 17:22:45 GMT -6
Mariano got 100%
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 22, 2019 17:24:19 GMT -6
Berkman off the ballot, just got 1.2%. Roy O got less than 1%
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