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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 25, 2019 8:49:01 GMT -6
Oh, and I completely forgot to address the faulty math ... This is wrong on so many levels. The QO does NOT define the value of a player. It merely sets a threshold. If a team isn't willing to offer AT LEAST that amount, then they don't deserve compensation. It's that simple. More on this in a moment but first let's the other part that's just as faulty. IF he was worth the QO before (and the Astros would not be getting the 'premium' if he signed), why on earth would he be worth less NOW?
Now let's get back to a greater understanding why the QO is basically irrelevant in regards to the actual value of the player, other than a minimum threshold... Next year, Verlander and Cole will be FA at the end of the season. According to your math, if they don't accept the QO offered and later discuss a contract, the new offer for each of them should be QO minus some premium. Can you see how ridiculous that is? Of course each will be likely merit a greater salary than Keuchel. But the reason for using them in this example is to make it painfully obvious that using the QO in determining what their contract should be just doesn't work. Sorry. I do not appear to be good enough to explain finance or business to you. That's OK. You don't have to know everything to live a happy life. If you think a player is worth a Qualifying Offer at the time one is made to him but then is magically only worth that MINUS some premium (that the team would NOT have gotten if he had accepted) because he declined it, you do not appear to be good enough to explain finance or business to anyone. There's an old saying: "Ignorance is Bliss". You appear to be in Nirvana on this one, marshall |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 25, 2019 9:23:53 GMT -6
Sorry. I do not appear to be good enough to explain finance or business to you. That's OK. You don't have to know everything to live a happy life. If you think a player is worth a Qualifying Offer at the time one is made to him but then is magically only worth that MINUS some premium (that the team would NOT have gotten if he had accepted) because he declined it, you do not appear to be good enough to explain finance or business to anyone. There's an old saying: "Ignorance is Bliss". You appear to be in Nirvana on this one, marshall I am sure you disagree,but, we made Keuchel a QO that is more than he's worth due to his numbers. He still wants to be paid based on what he did during his Cy Young year....He has not come close to that production since then and has basically declined each year. Now he and Boras expect to be paid for based on his 2015 season. It shouldn't and won't happen. Keuchel did not accept the QO, listened to Boras and declined....So, now there is no way I give him that much after he has tested the market and is seeing that nobody is going to give him what he and Boras won't....Boras also has Marwin over-priced and he is still unsigned. I would offer Keuchel $13 million to start negotiations, and, may go to $15 million as a top offer. If Keuchel balks, withdraw the offer and telling "good luck" and forget it. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 25, 2019 9:25:32 GMT -6
Sorry. I do not appear to be good enough to explain finance or business to you. That's OK. You don't have to know everything to live a happy life. If you think a player is worth a Qualifying Offer at the time one is made to him but then is magically only worth that MINUS some premium (that the team would NOT have gotten if he had accepted) because he declined it, you do not appear to be good enough to explain finance or business to anyone. There's an old saying: "Ignorance is Bliss". You appear to be in Nirvana on this one, marshall I can see both viewpoints...but Marshall has a point, the value of the compensatory pick goes in the 18.9 million....to the player, yes, hey, you were going to give me $18.9M....GM: you obviously thought you worth more, the market, says no.... so, you can either lessen you're asking price to other teams, or you and I need to negotiate what we think your value is now....by the way $18.9 is the ceiling and we aren't paying ceiling prices today. |
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Post by m240 on Jan 25, 2019 9:47:30 GMT -6
If you think a player is worth a Qualifying Offer at the time one is made to him but then is magically only worth that MINUS some premium (that the team would NOT have gotten if he had accepted) because he declined it, you do not appear to be good enough to explain finance or business to anyone. There's an old saying: "Ignorance is Bliss". You appear to be in Nirvana on this one, marshall I can see both viewpoints...but Marshall has a point, the value of the compensatory pick goes in the 18.9 million....to the player, yes, hey, you were going to give me $18.9M....GM: you obviously thought you worth more, the market, says no.... so, you can either lessen you're asking price to other teams, or you and I need to negotiate what we think your value is now....by the way $18.9 is the ceiling and we aren't paying ceiling prices today. The easiest way to explain the relative values pre/post free agency is to just look at what the players who declined the qualifying offer received in month of Feb signings of previous years. Note the % who received more and the % who received less and there is the answer. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 25, 2019 9:56:58 GMT -6
If you think a player is worth a Qualifying Offer at the time one is made to him but then is magically only worth that MINUS some premium (that the team would NOT have gotten if he had accepted) because he declined it, you do not appear to be good enough to explain finance or business to anyone. There's an old saying: "Ignorance is Bliss". You appear to be in Nirvana on this one, marshall I can see both viewpoints...but Marshall has a point, the value of the compensatory pick goes in the 18.9 million....to the player, yes, hey, you were going to give me $18.9M....GM: you obviously thought you worth more, the market, says no.... so, you can either lessen you're asking price to other teams, or you and I need to negotiate what we think your value is now....by the way $18.9 is the ceiling and we aren't paying ceiling prices today. Don't let Marshall confuse you. The market has thus far said no to what Kuechel's asking price. Which you can be sure is a LOT more than the value of single year at $19mm. He might even be asking less than $19mm per year but that would be for a multi-year contract.
Using the QO as a basis for what he might merit just doesn't work. Bryce Harper declined a QO and hasn't been signed yet. Does that mean he's not worth $19mm to the Nationals now? Of course not!
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marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
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Post by marshall on Jan 25, 2019 12:44:43 GMT -6
OK. I'll try one more time (and probably fail) to explain it.
Astros Your worth $17M for a one year contract to us.
Do we make him a qualifying offer? Not if there were no Competitive Balance pick.
BUT...
There is and we think it's worth $2M AND we think there is a descent chance he will not accept(Boros client) and another team will sign him.
So you make the QO because the value of the player AND the draft pick is greater than or equal 19M and you make the QO. This makes sense because the pick will offset the loss of the $17M player.
Now, since he wasn't signed, we're back to what we think he's worth without the offset for the draft pick because we won't get one if he signs with us.
We took a chance he would sign elsewhere and offset his loss with a high draft pick. We lost. But the previous offer is no longer valid at the point it was rejected. Any subsequent offer is irrelevant. You are making a new offer
Now to me, it makes perfect sense. If you don't get it and/or think I'm off my rocker, so be it. I will not continue this attempt at education any further. It is accomplishing nothing if it falls on deaf ears.
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Post by bearbryant on Jan 25, 2019 13:30:54 GMT -6
This article can finally end these manufactured bedroom theories. ![]()  |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 25, 2019 13:32:50 GMT -6
OK. I'll try one more time (and probably fail) to explain it. Astros Your worth $17M for a one year contract to us. Do we make him a qualifying offer? Not if there were no Competitive Balance pick. BUT... There is and we think it's worth $2M AND we think there is a descent chance he will not accept(Boros client) and another team will sign him.So you make the QO because the value of the player AND the draft pick is greater than or equal 19M and you make the QO. This makes sense because the pick will offset the loss of the $17M player. Now, since he wasn't signed, we're back to what we think he's worth without the offset for the draft pick because we won't get one if he signs with us. We took a chance he would sign elsewhere and offset his loss with a high draft pick. We lost. But the previous offer is no longer valid at the point it was rejected. Any subsequent offer is irrelevant. You are making a new offer Now to me, it makes perfect sense. If you don't get it and/or think I'm off my rocker, so be it. I will not continue this attempt at education any further. It is accomplishing nothing if it falls on deaf ears. The only thing that made the slightest bit of sense in that, was the gamble of getting compensation because you were betting on him not accepting the offer. IF the offer is made, and accepted, the team MUST pay the $19 million for one year and get the player only. They DON'T get compensation if he signs. So how on earth can you suggest that if he's only worth $17 million and you value the compensation at $2 million, $19 million is the correct value. It clearly isn't. If he accepts you'll be overpaying by $2 million.
Btw, the Astros haven't lost anything yet. The draft happens in June. It's only January. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 25, 2019 13:47:55 GMT -6
Justin Wilson to the Mets
Mystery Team Identified Padres.
They have the beat offer on the table for him.
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 25, 2019 14:01:24 GMT -6
This article can finally end these manufactured bedroom theories. ![]() Correa is asking for a $4 million salary increase after doing basically nothing to earn the salary he was being paid. True, if not for the 'back issues", we can assume he would have put up numbers worthy of the increase and maybe a larger increase. But, the fact is that he did very little to earn the salary he was paid in 2018 and should not expect what he is asking for in arbitration. He wants $5 million......the Astros are offering $4.25 million. While I don't see the point in haggling over $750,000 in the case of a guy with MVP potential. I don't think Correa is being reasonable in asking for $5 million based on the numbers he put up in 2018. This should be fairly easy to work out if both sides are reasonable. |
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Post by abregmanfan on Jan 25, 2019 14:42:12 GMT -6
Justin Wilson to the Mets Mystery Team Identified Padres. They have the beat offer on the table for him. I am glad the Padres have the beat offer on the table. Let's get this over with. |
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Post by bearbryant on Jan 25, 2019 14:53:59 GMT -6
but they're hiding something!![]() Correa is asking for a $4 million salary increase after doing basically nothing to earn the salary he was being paid. True, if not for the 'back issues", we can assume he would have put up numbers worthy of the increase and maybe a larger increase. But, the fact is that he did very little to earn the salary he was paid in 2018 and should not expect what he is asking for in arbitration. He wants $5 million......the Astros are offering $4.25 million. While I don't see the point in haggling over $750,000 in the case of a guy with MVP potential. I don't think Correa is being reasonable in asking for $5 million based on the numbers he put up in 2018. This should be fairly easy to work out if both sides are reasonable.
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 25, 2019 14:59:16 GMT -6
Justin Wilson to the Mets Mystery Team Identified Padres. They have the beat offer on the table for him. Well that kind of sucks for the Astros, because I thought Justin Wilson would be a good signing, given he is LH....silver lining, maybe the Mets might be inclined to trade Lugo now.... |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 25, 2019 15:00:50 GMT -6
Correa is asking for a $4 million salary increase after doing basically nothing to earn the salary he was being paid. True, if not for the 'back issues", we can assume he would have put up numbers worthy of the increase and maybe a larger increase. But, the fact is that he did very little to earn the salary he was paid in 2018 and should not expect what he is asking for in arbitration. He wants $5 million......the Astros are offering $4.25 million. While I don't see the point in haggling over $750,000 in the case of a guy with MVP potential. I don't think Correa is being reasonable in asking for $5 million based on the numbers he put up in 2018. This should be fairly easy to work out if both sides are reasonable.
Paying him for what he did in 2017 when he was underpaid for what he produced. He is very capable of having a breakout season and earning a multi-million dollar long-term contract, but, he has to prove he deserves it by staying healthy and producing. I find it funny how his "issues" were suddenly cured when time came for salary arbitration. Leaves him open for lots of unanswered questions. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 25, 2019 15:02:13 GMT -6
Justin Wilson to the Mets Mystery Team Identified Padres. They have the beat offer on the table for him. Well that kind of sucks for the Astros, because I thought Justin Wilson would be a good signing, given he is LH....silver lining, maybe the Mets might be inclined to trade Lugo now.... Another sign that Luhnow is sitting on his ass because he's "content". |
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 25, 2019 15:02:21 GMT -6
I can see both viewpoints...but Marshall has a point, the value of the compensatory pick goes in the 18.9 million....to the player, yes, hey, you were going to give me $18.9M....GM: you obviously thought you worth more, the market, says no.... so, you can either lessen you're asking price to other teams, or you and I need to negotiate what we think your value is now....by the way $18.9 is the ceiling and we aren't paying ceiling prices today. Don't let Marshall confuse you. The market has thus far said no to what Kuechel's asking price. Which you can be sure is a LOT more than the value of single year at $19mm. He might even be asking less than $19mm per year but that would be for a multi-year contract.
Using the QO as a basis for what he might merit just doesn't work. Bryce Harper declined a QO and hasn't been signed yet. Does that mean he's not worth $19mm to the Nationals now? Of course not!
I know Rumors are just that, Rumors, but I haven't heard of any other team really trying to sign Keuchel, and he is the top FA SP on the market. I think Boras pulled a Holland on him, and Keuchel might ending up saying WTF when this is all said and done.... |
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 25, 2019 15:04:35 GMT -6
OK. I'll try one more time (and probably fail) to explain it. Astros Your worth $17M for a one year contract to us. Do we make him a qualifying offer? Not if there were no Competitive Balance pick. BUT... There is and we think it's worth $2M AND we think there is a descent chance he will not accept(Boros client) and another team will sign him.So you make the QO because the value of the player AND the draft pick is greater than or equal 19M and you make the QO. This makes sense because the pick will offset the loss of the $17M player. Now, since he wasn't signed, we're back to what we think he's worth without the offset for the draft pick because we won't get one if he signs with us. We took a chance he would sign elsewhere and offset his loss with a high draft pick. We lost. But the previous offer is no longer valid at the point it was rejected. Any subsequent offer is irrelevant. You are making a new offer Now to me, it makes perfect sense. If you don't get it and/or think I'm off my rocker, so be it. I will not continue this attempt at education any further. It is accomplishing nothing if it falls on deaf ears. The only thing that made the slightest bit of sense in that, was the gamble of getting compensation because you were betting on him not accepting the offer. IF the offer is made, and accepted, the team MUST pay the $19 million for one year and get the player only. They DON'T get compensation if he signs. So how on earth can you suggest that if he's only worth $17 million and you value the compensation at $2 million, $19 million is the correct value. It clearly isn't. If he accepts you'll be overpaying by $2 million.
Btw, the Astros haven't lost anything yet. The draft happens in June. It's only January. I am really surprised that the Phillies, the Braves or the Padres have not offered Keuchel the big bucks...they have pitching needs and have money to spend, don't tell me Owners and GMs are coming to their senses. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 25, 2019 15:35:27 GMT -6
Don't let Marshall confuse you. The market has thus far said no to what Kuechel's asking price. Which you can be sure is a LOT more than the value of single year at $19mm. He might even be asking less than $19mm per year but that would be for a multi-year contract.
Using the QO as a basis for what he might merit just doesn't work. Bryce Harper declined a QO and hasn't been signed yet. Does that mean he's not worth $19mm to the Nationals now? Of course not!
I know Rumors are just that, Rumors, but I haven't heard of any other team really trying to sign Keuchel, and he is the top FA SP on the market. I think Boras pulled a Holland on him, and Keuchel might ending up saying WTF when this is all said and done.... He is probably already saying WTF. This is two off-seasons in a row where Boras clients are not getting what he expected. I haven't heard of anyone breaking down Marwin's door to sign him, either. Both of them are probably shocked. Maybe this will discourage others from hiring this asshole to be their agent. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 25, 2019 15:36:13 GMT -6
The only thing that made the slightest bit of sense in that, was the gamble of getting compensation because you were betting on him not accepting the offer. IF the offer is made, and accepted, the team MUST pay the $19 million for one year and get the player only. They DON'T get compensation if he signs. So how on earth can you suggest that if he's only worth $17 million and you value the compensation at $2 million, $19 million is the correct value. It clearly isn't. If he accepts you'll be overpaying by $2 million.
Btw, the Astros haven't lost anything yet. The draft happens in June. It's only January. I am really surprised that the Phillies, the Braves or the Padres have not offered Keuchel the big bucks...they have pitching needs and have money to spend, don't tell me Owners and GMs are coming to their senses. Other teams have figured out that Keuchel isn't worth big bucks. |
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Post by bearbryant on Jan 25, 2019 15:49:05 GMT -6
why would the Astros offer a $3M+ raise to someone who did nothing to earn it I wonder. Must be hiding something
Paying him for what he did in 2017 when he was underpaid for what he produced.   |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 25, 2019 15:49:38 GMT -6
The only thing that made the slightest bit of sense in that, was the gamble of getting compensation because you were betting on him not accepting the offer. IF the offer is made, and accepted, the team MUST pay the $19 million for one year and get the player only. They DON'T get compensation if he signs. So how on earth can you suggest that if he's only worth $17 million and you value the compensation at $2 million, $19 million is the correct value. It clearly isn't. If he accepts you'll be overpaying by $2 million.
Btw, the Astros haven't lost anything yet. The draft happens in June. It's only January. I am really surprised that the Phillies, the Braves or the Padres have not offered Keuchel the big bucks...they have pitching needs and have money to spend, don't tell me Owners and GMs are coming to their senses. The owners and GMs have been much less prone to bidding wars now than they were in years past. So yes, they seem to have come to their senses. And there seems to be precious little information about offers made to any of the FAs this year until after they're actually signed.
But I think the big problem for Keuchel right now is the number years he's asking for. I haven't heard what salary he's asking but he wants FIVE (or six) years.
mlbtr had predicted four years for a total of $82MM but even that seems a bit high. Not terribly far from reality, though.
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 25, 2019 16:02:20 GMT -6
Paying him for what he did in 2017 when he was underpaid for what he produced. Sorry you are too damn dumb to figure things out. Hasn't your mentor, punkass astros fan filled you in? I always know when you respond to me it will be more sarcastic bullshit.......you are as predictable as Nancy Pelosi. One thing for sure, you aren't hiding your ignorance........you just keep showing it. |
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Post by bearbryant on Jan 25, 2019 16:18:49 GMT -6
Take it easy son .. I agree with everything you said
The Astros think Correa deserves a raise for hitting .315/.391/.550 in 2017
Correa thinks he deserves a raise for hitting .315/.391/.550 in 2017
Since he has MVP potential, haggling over $750K isn't too big of a deal
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Post by abregmanfan on Jan 25, 2019 16:19:57 GMT -6
Sorry you are too damn dumb to figure things out. Hasn't your mentor, punkass astros fan filled you in? I always know when you respond to me it will be more sarcastic bullshit.......you are as predictable as Nancy Pelosi. One thing for sure, you aren't hiding your ignorance........you just keep showing it. Why do you have to bring Paastro into the argument? |
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 25, 2019 16:27:26 GMT -6
Sorry you are too damn dumb to figure things out. Hasn't your mentor, punkass astros fan filled you in? I always know when you respond to me it will be more sarcastic bullshit.......you are as predictable as Nancy Pelosi. One thing for sure, you aren't hiding your ignorance........you just keep showing it. Why do you have to bring Paastro into the argument? They don't get along...Corch always needs a heel or two for him...It his thang... |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 25, 2019 17:26:54 GMT -6
Sorry you are too damn dumb to figure things out. Hasn't your mentor, punkass astros fan filled you in? I always know when you respond to me it will be more sarcastic bullshit.......you are as predictable as Nancy Pelosi. One thing for sure, you aren't hiding your ignorance........you just keep showing it. Why do you have to bring Paastro into the argument? Because this bearbryant moron thinks your dear friend is an authority on baseball when he doesn't know any more than the rest of us. You seem like a nice person and I enjoyed watching your son play in the LL World Series. I think he has a grat future in baseball.........but, as for your pal, I tried to extend an olive branch to him and let bygones be bygones. He wanted no part of it which proves to me he is a bonafide asshole. He disappeared for awhile, but, I figured the old fraud would return. I see you knew that punkass astros fan and that clown were the same guy. |
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Post by bearbryant on Jan 25, 2019 17:34:59 GMT -6
Why do you have to bring Paastro into the argument? Because this bearbryant moron thinks your dear friend is an authority on baseball when he doesn't know any more than the rest of us.  |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 25, 2019 17:43:14 GMT -6
Because this bearbryant moron thinks your dear friend is an authority on baseball when he doesn't know any more than the rest of us. You like to assume things, don't you? |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 25, 2019 17:50:39 GMT -6
Like many people, Corch performs best when he has a foil.
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Post by abregmanfan on Jan 25, 2019 17:58:36 GMT -6
Why do you have to bring Paastro into the argument? Because this bearbryant moron thinks your dear friend is an authority on baseball when he doesn't know any more than the rest of us. You seem like a nice person and I enjoyed watching your son play in the LL World Series. I think he has a grat future in baseball.........but, as for your pal, I tried to extend an olive branch to him and let bygones be bygones. He wanted no part of it which proves to me he is a bonafide asshole. He disappeared for awhile, but, I figured the old fraud would return. I see you knew that punkass astros fan and that clown were the same guy. Thanks for the kind words about my son. I look at all the arguments between posters and don't understand. We are all here because of our love for the Stros. I respect everyone, you included. I enjoy listening to other points of view. |
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