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Post by thomasj13 on Feb 1, 2019 4:21:20 GMT -6
...to Houston...with the rest of the Indians April 25-28 Reality: Smasher of dreams. |
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Post by m240 on Feb 1, 2019 7:31:22 GMT -6
I think that the only two trades that we will make will be Kemp for prospects and to trade for Castellanos so that we have some more power from the right side in the outfield. I also think that Tucker will start the year in AAA even if he hits 400 in spring training. Then he gets called up after the super two period is over or whenever Brantley or Springer goes on the dl. Getting Castellanos means that we will not have to worry about an injury to one of our outfielders, or White forgetting how to hit, to force us to have to settle for a weak bat in our lineup. It will also mean that we will have to make a trade for Reddick or Gurriel to make room for Tucker.
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Post by thomasj13 on Feb 1, 2019 7:40:13 GMT -6
...to Houston...with the rest of the Indians April 25-28 Can we at least get Seth Lugo? |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Feb 1, 2019 8:04:12 GMT -6
I think that the only two trades that we will make will be Kemp for prospects and to trade for Castellanos so that we have some more power from the right side in the outfield. I also think that Tucker will start the year in AAA even if he hits 400 in spring training. Then he gets called up after the super two period is over or whenever Brantley or Springer goes on the dl. Getting Castellanos means that we will not have to worry about an injury to one of our outfielders, or White forgetting how to hit, to force us to have to settle for a weak bat in our lineup. It will also mean that we will have to make a trade for Reddick or Gurriel to make room for Tucker. The way they are pushing Tucker I just don't see him in AAA unless he absolutely sucks it up in spring training |
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Post by olpapa on Feb 1, 2019 8:09:27 GMT -6
...to Houston...with the rest of the Indians April 25-28 Can we at least get Seth Lugo? That would be nice, but I’m afraid that ship has sailed. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Feb 1, 2019 8:21:49 GMT -6
Can we at least get Seth Lugo? That would be nice, but I’m afraid that ship has sailed. Come back! |
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Post by unionstation82 on Feb 1, 2019 8:47:44 GMT -6
...to Houston...with the rest of the Indians April 25-28 Can we at least get Seth Lugo? Can we get a committal past this season for a player? |
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Post by Saint on Feb 1, 2019 9:04:22 GMT -6
...to Houston...with the rest of the Indians April 25-28 Unless Luhnow gets off his ass and does something! |
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Post by Saint on Feb 1, 2019 9:07:51 GMT -6
Olney's picking us despite a relatively weak hot stove season? Will be interesting to hear his reasoning. Well if you look back, we were very close to repeating as AL champs. There was some rotten luck in that Boston series (along with some special plays by Boston) that could have very much turned things around. Plus, we were the 2nd best team in the AL while playing in the postseason with a hurt Altuve and hurt Correa. The only difference between this year and last is Miley instead of Keuchel (at this point), but we've also added an all-star LFer and a better-hitting catcher. I think we deserve to be considered a favorite. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Feb 1, 2019 9:09:01 GMT -6
Olney's picking us despite a relatively weak hot stove season? Will be interesting to hear his reasoning. Well if you look back, we were very close to repeating as AL champs. There was some rotten luck in that Boston series (along with some special plays by Boston) that could have very much turned things around. Plus, we were the 2nd best team in the AL while playing in the postseason with a hurt Altuve and hurt Correa. The only difference between this year and last is Miley instead of Keuchel (at this point), but we've also added an all-star LFer and a better-hitting catcher. I think we deserve to be considered a favorite. My hatred of Andrew Benintendi for that catch rivals that of Will Harris. |
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Post by Saint on Feb 1, 2019 9:12:35 GMT -6
Well if you look back, we were very close to repeating as AL champs. There was some rotten luck in that Boston series (along with some special plays by Boston) that could have very much turned things around. Plus, we were the 2nd best team in the AL while playing in the postseason with a hurt Altuve and hurt Correa. The only difference between this year and last is Miley instead of Keuchel (at this point), but we've also added an all-star LFer and a better-hitting catcher. I think we deserve to be considered a favorite. My hatred of Andrew Benintendi for that catch rivals that of Will Harris. Yup. That play, Altuve's non-HR, the HR by Pearse....all plays that made a ton of difference. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Feb 1, 2019 9:45:42 GMT -6
My hatred of Andrew Benintendi for that catch rivals that of Will Harris. Yup. That play, Altuve's non-HR, the HR by Pearse....all plays that made a ton of difference. What about Jackie Bradley, Jr. all of a sudden remembering how to hit? |
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 1, 2019 11:06:17 GMT -6
Some people are of the opinion that Luhnow's main focus now is on the 2020 season -- that shoring up the 2020 rotation is a higher priority for him than adding that extra oomph to the 2019 offense so that it's really scary.
I can appreciate it's a tough balancing act. If Luhnow's hang-up with Castellanos is that he'd be gone after 2019, then sign him to an extension... or go after Hunter Renfroe, who would play for the Astros through the 2023 season. If Hinch can consistently fill out lineup cards that have, at most, one <100 OPS+ hitter, that will keep a tremendous amount of pressure on opposing pitchers and allow Houston's own rookie pitchers more room for error.
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 1, 2019 12:01:30 GMT -6
Even if we make the extremely conservative assumption that none of the 2020 FA's agree to sign an extension with Houston, this is approximately what the 2020 Astros would look like:  That might not be 100% accurate in case certain guys will be out of options, but it's roughly what the Astros could field if they stand pat from now till April 2020. To me, that looks like about an 85-win team. According to BRef, it would cost around $111M to field that team, and we can be pretty sure Crane would spend quite a bit on top of that to make the team more competitive. Assuming Crane is willing to take the budget to at least the $160M level, it should be possible to make the 2020 Astros at least a 93-win team. With a couple good trades and good performance from the rookies, maybe next year's team even approaches 100 wins. |
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Post by Saint on Feb 1, 2019 12:02:24 GMT -6
Yup. That play, Altuve's non-HR, the HR by Pearse....all plays that made a ton of difference. What about Jackie Bradley, Jr. all of a sudden remembering how to hit? That too. Boston was a great all-around team all season long, but it took some very fortunate turn of events for them to get past us. |
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Post by Saint on Feb 1, 2019 12:03:37 GMT -6
Even if we make the extremely conservative assumption that none of the 2020 FA's agree to sign an extension with Houston, this is approximately what the 2020 Astros would look like: That might not be 100% accurate in case certain guys will be out of options, but it's roughly what the Astros could field if they stand pat from now till April 2020. To me, that looks like about an 85-win team. According to BRef, it would cost around $111M to field that team, and we can be pretty sure Crane would spend quite a bit on top of that to make the team more competitive. Assuming Crane is willing to take the budget to at least the $160M level, it should be possible to make the 2020 Astros at least a 93-win team. With a couple good trades and good performance from the rookies, maybe next year's team even approaches 100 wins. Who would Cast play instead of though? If he had more defensive versatility I'd be all for him, but we don't need another 1B/DH unless you're going to give up on White. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 1, 2019 12:13:17 GMT -6
Castellanos would replace one of Kemp, Reddick, or Gurriel.
Of the three, I would prefer to jettison Reddick. Gurriel looked awfully sharp in September (power was coming back) and I think that had a lot to do with his hand bones finally healing. So let's give Yuli more chances in 2019 and see what he can do.
Kemp is above-average in hitting and flexible in terms of where he plays on the field, and steals base successfully enough that you don't have to give him a red light too often.
Reddick's main virtues are that he has a good throwing arm and is a decent base stealer. However the offense can ill afford another .720ish OPS season from him and I haven't seen any reason for optimism that he will turn things around.
White has been one of the team's best, most consistent hitters over the last two seasons so I really can't see any reason to drop him (unless the Angels want him in exchange for Trout).
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Post by abregmanfan on Feb 1, 2019 12:20:43 GMT -6
Castellanos would replace one of Kemp, Reddick, or Gurriel. Of the three, I would prefer to jettison Reddick. Gurriel looked awfully sharp in September (power was coming back) and I think that had a lot to do with his hand bones finally healing. So let's give Yuli more chances in 2019 and see what he can do. Kemp is above-average in hitting and flexible in terms of where he plays on the field, and steals base successfully enough that you don't have to give him a red light too often. Reddick's main virtues are that he has a good throwing arm and is a decent base stealer. However the offense can ill afford another .720ish OPS season from him and I haven't seen any reason for optimism that he will turn things around. White has been one of the team's best, most consistent hitters over the last two seasons so I really can't see any reason to drop him (unless the Angels want him in exchange for Trout). I think Kemp is who the Angels would target in a Trout deal. I just don't see the Astros caving to such an offer. |
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marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
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Post by marshall on Feb 1, 2019 12:20:50 GMT -6
...to Houston...with the rest of the Indians April 25-28 Unless Luhnow gets off his ass and does something! |
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 1, 2019 12:48:29 GMT -6
One way to think about the issue of whether to add a bat (and who that new player should replace) is to consider that last season, Hinch gave over 1500 PA's to hitters who were below the league average in OPS:
Reddick 487
Stassi 250
Marisnick 235
Maldonado 114
McCann 216
Fisher 86
Davis 113
Fedo 35
TOTAL - 1536
This season, we don't have to worry about Maldonado, McCann, Davis, or Fedo. And there's good reason to assume all the new additions (Brantley, Diaz, Chirinos) will hit above the league average.
Assuming there are no further trades, and assuming Marisnick/Stassi/Reddick/Fisher get the same amount of playing time this season as last, that reduces the number of PA's taken by below-average hitters to ~1050. With some judicious paring down of those underperformers' playing time, Hinch should be able to get the number down to no more than 800.
That would be a big improvement over last year, to reduce by half the number of PA's taken by hitters who are below league average. It makes it a lot harder for pitchers when there aren't obvious holes in the lineup for them to exploit.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Feb 1, 2019 13:38:46 GMT -6
For those who doubt
Paul Goldschmidt is close to signing an extension 5yrs 139m with the Cards
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Post by bearbryant on Feb 1, 2019 13:48:40 GMT -6
Padres in on Harper
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Post by abregmanfan on Feb 1, 2019 13:59:25 GMT -6
Rockies in on Machado according to reports.
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 1, 2019 14:07:07 GMT -6
At this point, Crane has about $15M to spend in the off season, which would leave around $10M cushion to use in July/August if warranted.
Besides cash, he also has some good trade chips. Here are the main needs for 2019/20 and a menu of what those resources could likely get the Astros --
SP - Buchholz (8M?), Gio Gonzalez (12M?); trades: Lugo, MadBum, Stroman, Minor, Godley
RP - Jake Diekman (3M), Kimbrel (15-18M); trades: Will Smith, Tony Watson, Craig Stammen, Jose Leclerc, Mychal Givens, Tim Hill
C - trades: Realmuto, Posey
OF/DH - trade: Castellanos, Renfroe, Merrifield
I would take Buchholz and Diekman on two-year deals, then trade for Castellanos and call it an off season. Trades can still be made later in the year and I'd try to get a starter and a couple relievers that way unless the Houston pitching staff is just clicking on all cylinders already.
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Post by Saint on Feb 1, 2019 14:20:13 GMT -6
Rockies in on Machado according to reports. That would be a hell of a left side of the infield for 2019.... |
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Post by Saint on Feb 1, 2019 14:21:13 GMT -6
At this point, Crane has about $15M to spend in the off season, which would leave around $10M cushion to use in July/August if warranted. Besides cash, he also has some good trade chips. Here are the main needs for 2019/20 and a menu of what those resources could likely get the Astros -- SP - Buchholz (8M?), Gio Gonzalez (12M?); trades: Lugo, MadBum, Stroman, Minor, Godley RP - Jake Diekman (3M), Kimbrel (15-18M); trades: Will Smith, Tony Watson, Craig Stammen, Jose Leclerc, Mychal Givens, Tim Hill C - trades: Realmuto, Posey OF/DH - trade: Castellanos, Renfroe, Merrifield I would take Buchholz and Diekman on two-year deals, then trade for Castellanos and call it an off season. Trades can still be made later in the year and I'd try to get a starter and a couple relievers that way unless the Houston pitching staff is just clicking on all cylinders already. I'd prefer Gio on a 2-year deal. We don't seem to be showing any interest though. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 1, 2019 14:27:56 GMT -6
Luhnow could well be pursuing Gio... he never said anything about Miley until it was a done deal.
I like Gio's durability, but not so much his quality of work.
It would be easier to deal with having Gio out there if the offense is turbo-charged (Castellanos and Realmuto spelling Reddick and Stassi) to compensate for the extra runs allowed.
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 1, 2019 14:45:56 GMT -6
I just found the perfect prize for those monthly guess-the-Astros-record contests:  |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Feb 1, 2019 14:48:10 GMT -6
I think there going for another bat or two and can move some off the roster.
With all the hype Kyle Tucker is getting there is no way he starts in AAA. That would mean Kemp, Marisnick and Straw would all have to watch out.
If this is the case they have to move Reddick no matter the case.
We seen this kind of stuff with Bregman will they do it with Kyle Tucker?
I think Wade Miley is a good signing. If anything they have a great BP guy.
They could very well go get Seth Lugo. Idk.
But I think they want that bat very badly. Rather it be DH , 1B or even C.
At this point no one knows?
But I think they want a low SO power hitter in the worst way.
Nick Castellanos makes the most since in this Catagory since he isnt just confined to DH. And we all know how much Lunhow likes Versatility.
I still wont count out Realmuto. Jeff Lunhow is a monster at trading. He pulls the unexpected.
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marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
Posts: 4,358
Likes: 446
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Post by marshall on Feb 1, 2019 14:49:19 GMT -6
Thinking of the acquisitions this off season, can anyone say that any of them were on the radar before they happened?
Diaz? 106 OPS+ Utility Infielder
Chirinos? 97 OPS+ (120 in 17) Catcher
Brantley? 123 OPS+ Left Fielder
Miley? 159 ERA+ Starting Pitcher
I don't recall any of these being mentioned on the board before the rumors that a deal had been reached began leaking.
We don't know what we don't know and what we "do know" is highly suspect.
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