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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 21, 2019 18:36:58 GMT -6
maybe without knowing it, Art Howe was beating Tampa to the punch by using Clancy as an 'opener'.
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Post by paastrosfan on Feb 21, 2019 18:58:14 GMT -6
Looking at recent Stros History in Devo's first season AJ started him in starting roles for a couple of games throwing him two or three innings. But the term "opener" wasn't used until TB made it used last season.
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 21, 2019 19:08:44 GMT -6
If Keuchel's new team is smart, they will use an opener for him. For some reason he just can't get through the first inning smoothly.
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Feb 21, 2019 19:17:23 GMT -6
If Keuchel's new team is smart, they will use an opener for him. For some reason he just can't get through the first inning smoothly. The problem with this idea is that HIS first inning will always be HIS first inning. I don't think he would be a good candidate in relief. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Feb 21, 2019 19:30:01 GMT -6
I was just thinking of a partially objective measure of value as a FA. With Manny averaging about 5 WAR/yr and getting 30M/yr, how consistent is a value of $6M/WAR as a value? We got JV at a net cost of $20M. were we paying with an expectation of a little over 3 WAR/yr? He had about 10 WAR in the three years prior to his acquisition, so that looks about right at $6M/WAR/YR. Brantly appears to be averaging about 2.5 WAR/YR when healthy over his 10 year career. At $6M/WAR./YR that comes to about $15M per year, so that's not too far off. I think there might be something to a price of about $6M/WAR/YR for anticipated production.
Of course if this is the case, after the last three years, Verlanders average WAR has jumped to about 6.5 WAR and would put his value at ~$39M/yr. That wouldn't bode well for resigning him at a discount.
If Trout has been averaging about 9 WAR/yr, would we place his value at $54M/yr? As much as I hate to admit it, he might be a bargain at $40M/yr.
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 21, 2019 19:39:45 GMT -6
I would estimate the value of a WAR at between 5 and 6 million$/year. I know the players like to promote the idea that it's around $9 million/WAR and there are some Fangraphs articles that try to make that case, but it sounds excessive given the alternatives out there.
To give some sense of how well Luhnow is beating the market, this year's team is projected for 49.2 WAR and mlbtr today said the payroll stands at $181 million. If the projection holds up, that would mean the Astros are paying $3.68 million/WAR. it would be interesting to see how that figure compares to other teams' projected cost per WAR. But at first glance, I would estimate that the Astros are buying wins at at least a 25% discount to the rest of MLB.
Last year, the Astros earned 55.4 WAR (actual achievement, not a projection) and according to MLBTR the payroll was $160.4 million. That comes out to $2.90 million/WAR, so even a better value than what the 2019 projects to earn.
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Feb 21, 2019 19:46:46 GMT -6
I would estimate the value of a WAR at between 5 and 6 million$/year. I know the players like to promote the idea that it's around $9 million/WAR and there are some Fangraphs articles that try to make that case, but it sounds excessive given the alternatives out there. To give some sense of how well Luhnow is beating the market, this year's team is projected for 49.2 WAR and mlbtr today said the payroll stands at $181 million. If the projection holds up, that would mean the Astros are paying $3.68 million/WAR. it would be interesting to see how that figure compares to other teams' projected cost per WAR. But at first glance, I would estimate that the Astros are buying wins at at least a 25% discount to the rest of MLB. Much of that is due to the value provided by the farm. At $6M/WAR/YR, Bregman would be worth $33M/yr at the 5.5 WAR he's averaged the last two years. I think he's still under $1M this year.
That's why we have to make room for the Tuckers and Whitleys and James rather than depending on FAs.
If we get anticipated performances from the farm and still lose JV and Cole to FA, we would be in a position to lock up and even add WAR keeping the team in contention for several more years.
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Post by unionstation82 on Feb 22, 2019 3:41:38 GMT -6
If Keuchel's new team is smart, they will use an opener for him. For some reason he just can't get through the first inning smoothly. I just think it was unfair that he was allowed to mow down hitters with a Braves-like K zone at first and then had the rug pulled from underneath him. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 22, 2019 4:42:42 GMT -6
If Keuchel's new team is smart, they will use an opener for him. For some reason he just can't get through the first inning smoothly. I just think it was unfair that he was allowed to mow down hitters with a Braves-like K zone at first and then had the rug pulled from underneath him. While I would like to keep things traditional in almost every other respect, I totally support electronic ball/strike calling. The average strike zone umps are calling today (and what they were calling in 2015 when Keuchel was getting favorable treatment) is significantly different from the rulebook strike zone, and on top of that each ump has his own personal strike zone. It's confusing and unfair to both hitters and pitchers, leads to bitter feelings when a game is decided on a bad call, etc. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 22, 2019 5:04:33 GMT -6
Where in the rulebook does it say the pitch count determines the dimensions of the strike zone?   |
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 22, 2019 5:29:40 GMT -6
By comparison to the Astros' expected cost of $3.68M/WAR in 2019, these are what some some other clubs are expected to pay:
Giants $7.23M/WAR
Angels $4.38M/WAR
Padres $4.22M/WAR
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Post by thomasj13 on Feb 22, 2019 6:56:06 GMT -6
For those that are wanting to trade low on Reddick, the White Sox seem like a time that would be interested. There are no rumors, but if they are not in on the Harper market, looking for a shorter term solution, Reddick would at least be a consideration.
Me personally, I like Reddick, so I rather him stay on the team and gamble on him having a bounce back season.
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Post by thomasj13 on Feb 22, 2019 7:35:16 GMT -6
Any guesses at this point, to where Keuchel will land?
Keuchel Watch:
What possible playoff bound teams would be inclined to offering Keuchel a $18M year contract for 2 to 3 years?
1) Brewers
2) Astros
What teams are likely to be hovering around 82 wins, thus maybe not this year, but in years to come, so they would be more inclined to offering Keuchel a 4-5 year deal
1. Padres
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Reds
Darkhorse candidates - because they have money to spend
1. Rays - can they earn a playoff spot in the AL East?
2. White Sox
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Feb 22, 2019 7:53:58 GMT -6
Any guesses at this point, to where Keuchel will land? Keuchel Watch: What possible playoff bound teams would be inclined to offering Keuchel a $18M year contract for 2 to 3 years? 1) Brewers 2) Astros What teams are likely to be hovering around 82 wins, thus maybe not this year, but in years to come, so they would be more inclined to offering Keuchel a 4-5 year deal 1. Padres 2. Phillies 3. Braves 4. Reds Darkhorse candidates - because they have money to spend 1. Rays - can they earn a playoff spot in the AL East? 2. White Sox His average WAR over the last three seasons is 2. At $$6M/WAR he is worth $12M. He should have taken the QO.
Miley, on the other hand, has averages 0.3 WAR over the last three years and would be worth $2M/yr so even for one year, we have to at least double his WAR to receive the value we paid for him.
If we have a couple of pitching prospects having a good spring, I could see us replacing Miley in the rotation.
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Feb 22, 2019 7:56:14 GMT -6
I heard a rumor that there will be Astros Baseball today. Is there any chance it will be Live Streamed?
Oops! I'm a day early. I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas.
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Post by astrosdoug on Feb 22, 2019 8:21:41 GMT -6
I heard a rumor that there will be Astros Baseball today. Is there any chance it will be Live Streamed?
Oops! I'm a day early. I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas.
T-minus 32 hours. Not that anyone's counting. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2019 8:36:51 GMT -6
Read an article yesterday that astoundingly stated that the Padres "might" be signing Harper. OTOH....I'd guess they aren't that stupid.
But if they are shooting the wad, it would make sense to have some semblence of pitching depth if they truly want to make a run.
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Post by Saint on Feb 22, 2019 9:22:26 GMT -6
Any guesses at this point, to where Keuchel will land? Keuchel Watch: What possible playoff bound teams would be inclined to offering Keuchel a $18M year contract for 2 to 3 years? 1) Brewers 2) Astros What teams are likely to be hovering around 82 wins, thus maybe not this year, but in years to come, so they would be more inclined to offering Keuchel a 4-5 year deal 1. Padres 2. Phillies 3. Braves 4. Reds Darkhorse candidates - because they have money to spend 1. Rays - can they earn a playoff spot in the AL East? 2. White Sox His average WAR over the last three seasons is 2. At $$6M/WAR he is worth $12M. He should have taken the QO.
Miley, on the other hand, has averages 0.3 WAR over the last three years and would be worth $2M/yr so even for one year, we have to at least double his WAR to receive the value we paid for him.
If we have a couple of pitching prospects having a good spring, I could see us replacing Miley in the rotation.
Even if your WAR estimate was accurate and the deciding factor, why, at his age, would he settle for 1-year $18 million when he could likely get AT LEAST 3-years $36 million using your WAR estimate? That's double the guaranteed salary for a player 30+ years of age. Would you turn down at least an extra $18 million guaranteed at his age and health concerns the previous two years? |
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Post by bearbryant on Feb 22, 2019 9:33:18 GMT -6
I remember Jim Clancy starting a game in Riverfront in 1989 when he gave up 14 runs in the 1st inning. Although some runs scored with the long reliever in tow Yep, Clancy was in the twilight of his career then and went through a stretch that season of getting pulled by the 2nd or 3rd inning he was so bad. By the end of the year he was often pitching out of the pen. That particular game, Clancy failed to record a single out and Art Howe had to put Bob Forsch in relief right from the first inning. Forsch ended up going 7 innings, way more than his usual stint of 2 to 3 frames. Aside from Forsch, the Astros had a pretty good bullpen that year. And they sure needed it, because really only Jim Deshaies and Mike Scott (maybe to some extent, Mark Portugal) were reliable as starters. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2019 9:45:45 GMT -6
This offseason I was worried about our rotation going into the 2019 season. The more I think about it and read about Pitchers like James and Valdez, I feel more confident. I think it would be worthwhile to look into a SP at the trade deadline. Yet we have 2 bonafied aces, McHugh has proven successful as a SP and RP, Miley is decent and James in the fifth spot. Sounds pretty good to me. Plus we have Peacock and Valdez who can spot start successfully.
Now the rotation after this season, that’s scary if we don’t extend JV, Cole and McHugh.
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Post by m240 on Feb 22, 2019 10:07:16 GMT -6
With the farm system that the Padres have and if they do sign Harper then with both of those big horses in the lineup and the crew already assembled they could have a winner for a long time into the future. They can afford it, it makes sound business sense for them, why not sign Harper and Keuchel.
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Feb 22, 2019 10:22:15 GMT -6
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2019 10:43:13 GMT -6
Didn't realize that Gurriel was near 35 yo. Sure looks a lot younger than that. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2019 10:45:42 GMT -6
With the farm system that the Padres have and if they do sign Harper then with both of those big horses in the lineup and the crew already assembled they could have a winner for a long time into the future. They can afford it, it makes sound business sense for them, why not sign Harper and Keuchel. Sure would be a roll of the dice considering they would have $600M tied up long term with Machado and Harper. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Feb 22, 2019 10:52:14 GMT -6
Still a chance Hatper signs a 11yr deal with mystery team
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Post by Saint on Feb 22, 2019 11:51:04 GMT -6
Twins have signed Marwin, reportedly. No details yet.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2019 11:57:10 GMT -6
Twins have signed Marwin, reportedly. No details yet. I’m seeing 2 years at 21 million total. |
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Post by Saint on Feb 22, 2019 12:01:05 GMT -6
Yuli ended up with a solid season all things considered, especially when you see that AL 1B had a pretty mediocre year all together. The problem is that, while the AVG and RBI total look pretty good, his weaker OBP, lower SLG (partially due to the hand injury) and limited baserunning ability put a damper on his overall offensive value. That being said, if he can actually play some other positions more frequently this year and his hand strength comes back, he could be due for a pretty effective year. An offensive season like 2017 while helping to play some other positions adequately, would make him a pretty valuable asset. I view him and Reddick in the same boat. Solid veterans that, with a closer return to 2017 numbers, could really put us over the top if our core players stay healthy. |
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Post by Saint on Feb 22, 2019 12:05:19 GMT -6
Twins have signed Marwin, reportedly. No details yet. I’m seeing 2 years at 21 million total. Yup. I think both sides got a fair deal with that. Marwin beats the QO amount (if we had given him one) while going to a team where he should get considerable playing time. If he performs well, he'll still be in a good position in two years to get another solid 2-3 year deal. The Twins get a guy that can play almost anywhere for a short-term deal. I'm a little surprised they would haven't pushed for like a 3-year $30 million deal, but maybe Marwin didn't want 3 years with them. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Feb 22, 2019 12:45:04 GMT -6
Twins have signed Marwin, reportedly. No details yet. I’m seeing 2 years at 21 million total. Bortaz is going to be so distraught......If there are any puppies in his vicinity, they better hide...Bortaz, when angered, is a puppy kicker... |
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