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Post by nathangarza29 on Dec 12, 2018 22:23:46 GMT -6
I get what every one is saying I just see Lunhow thinking big. His hints are all there. We have to wait. We want a left handed power bat. LF OR DH or both.
They wanna keep both Tucker and Whitley.
Corbin, Perez, James, Valdez, Beer and Nova are untouchable and they wanna see them this year so they can understand what to do after 2019.
Which means if they go after Realmuto it would be a prospect haul of Yordan Alveraz, J.B. Bukouskas and anyone not listed above maybe even add in Straw, White or Kemp.
I doubt that would be good enough to get Realmuto.
So go grab Grandal or Ramos or trade for Carevelli
But thinking how lunhow was talking Bryce Harper and Micheal Bradley if they add them both. Wow. This would be a deadly team.and you would protect yourself from losing Reddick and Yuli.
It would be fair to say
10 yr 320m
And Brantley at
3yrs 50 and make him your DH 1B
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Post by thomasj13 on Dec 12, 2018 22:25:32 GMT -6
With the Yankees signing Happ, I hope the Astros can get a bargain/buy low trade for Gray. He fits the Luhnow/Strom profile.
He is on contract for 1 more year. Stop gap until Whitley takes over.
I am also liking Jordan Zimmerman (discount pricing on his contract) or Fulmer
I am also liking Cahill (Morton 2.0) and Shelby Miller (could be long inning relief/spot starter).
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Post by nathangarza29 on Dec 12, 2018 22:46:05 GMT -6
With the Yankees signing Happ, I hope the Astros can get a bargain/buy low trade for Gray. He fits the Luhnow/Strom profile. He is on contract for 1 more year. Stop gap until Whitley takes over. I am also liking Jordan Zimmerman (discount pricing on his contract) or Fulmer I am also liking Cahill (Morton 2.0) and Shelby Miller (could be long inning relief/spot starter). Fulmer all day and what I said above. Shelby Miller intrigues me aswell |
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Post by paastrosfan on Dec 12, 2018 23:10:15 GMT -6
It's not a happy thought, but what if Correa never gets over his back problem or whatever it was that held him to league average (102 OPS+) performance last year? Who plays SS if Correa's career fizzles out? Bregman could play short, but at the cost of creating a need at 3B. Diaz is mainly a bench player and can't be tied down to SS if he is going to fill a utility role. (Incidentally, Diaz's offensive numbers last year were a tad better than Correa's.) The Grizzlies currently list Alex de Goti as their primary shortstop, but it's not clear he will ever be major league material. In case of multiple injuries on the big league club, de Goti may be the immediate go-to guy at short. Further down in the minors, Jonathan Arauz might be ready to play SS at the big league level around 2020/2021 and beyond that, there's Freudis Nova who projects to be ready around 2022. The market on tradeable or free agent shortstops is pretty thin. De Goti stepping up this spring and showing he's ready for MLB would be big from an insurance standpoint.That is one position playing in the organization that would put you behind the eight ball. Back injuries can be mystery problems, feeling good one day and waking up the next day not being able to bend from the waist. We can only hope that CC's problem is not on going and holds him back next season. As you mentioned finding a good short stop is tough on the short list. I was surprised when the M's traded Segura to the Phillies, but then again they really tore down that team. That is one position playing in the organization that would put you behind the eight ball. Back injuries can be mystery problems, feeling good one day and waking up the next day not being able to bend from the waist. We can only hope that CC's problem is not on going and holds him back next season. As you mentioned finding a good short stop is tough on the short list. I was surprised when the M's traded Segura to the Phillies, but then again they really tore down that team. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Dec 12, 2018 23:12:30 GMT -6
With the Yankees signing Happ, I hope the Astros can get a bargain/buy low trade for Gray. He fits the Luhnow/Strom profile. He is on contract for 1 more year. Stop gap until Whitley takes over. I am also liking Jordan Zimmerman (discount pricing on his contract) or Fulmer I am also liking Cahill (Morton 2.0) and Shelby Miller (could be long inning relief/spot starter). Fulmer all day and what I said above. Shelby Miller intrigues me aswell I had much rather go after Fulmer than Gray. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Dec 12, 2018 23:16:42 GMT -6
I get what every one is saying I just see Lunhow thinking big. His hints are all there. We have to wait. We want a left handed power bat. LF OR DH or both. They wanna keep both Tucker and Whitley. Corbin, Perez, James, Valdez, Beer and Nova are untouchable and they wanna see them this year so they can understand what to do after 2019. Which means if they go after Realmuto it would be a prospect haul of Yordan Alveraz, J.B. Bukouskas and anyone not listed above maybe even add in Straw, White or Kemp. I doubt that would be good enough to get Realmuto. So go grab Grandal or Ramos or trade for Carevelli But thinking how lunhow was talking Bryce Harper and Micheal Bradley if they add them both. Wow. This would be a deadly team.and you would protect yourself from losing Reddick and Yuli. It would be fair to say 10 yr 320m And Brantley at 3yrs 50 and make him your DH 1B Luhnow keeps sending mixed signals...one day we have made trade proposals and free agent offers. The next day he sounds content with what we have. All of this tells me he is probably working on something, I admit to not having enough patience with him. If Crane wants Harper, he will spend to get him. I do wish Crane would watch what he says to the media....sounding like he thinks we can win no matter who decides to become a FA and leave is not good. He needs to shut up about that. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 13, 2018 3:24:08 GMT -6
Nice to see Edwin Diaz go the Mets. Stashed over in the NL, he won't be able to give the Astros headaches like he did last year.
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Post by bearbryant on Dec 13, 2018 4:10:12 GMT -6
It's not a happy thought, but what if Correa never gets over his back problem or whatever it was that held him to league average (102 OPS+) performance last year? Who plays SS if Correa's career fizzles out? Bregman could play short, but at the cost of creating a need at 3B. Diaz is mainly a bench player and can't be tied down to SS if he is going to fill a utility role. (Incidentally, Diaz's offensive numbers last year were a tad better than Correa's.) The Grizzlies currently list Alex de Goti as their primary shortstop, but it's not clear he will ever be major league material. In case of multiple injuries on the big league club, de Goti may be the immediate go-to guy at short. Further down in the minors, Jonathan Arauz might be ready to play SS at the big league level around 2020/2021 and beyond that, there's Freudis Nova who projects to be ready around 2022. The market on tradeable or free agent shortstops is pretty thin. De Goti stepping up this spring and showing he's ready for MLB would be big from an insurance standpoint.That is one position playing in the organization that would put you behind the eight ball. Back injuries can be mystery problems, feeling good one day and waking up the next day not being able to bend from the waist. We can only hope that CC's problem is not on going and holds him back next season. As you mentioned finding a good short stop is tough on the short list. I was surprised when the M's traded Segura to the Phillies, but then again they really tore down that team. That is one position playing in the organization that would put you behind the eight ball. Back injuries can be mystery problems, feeling good one day and waking up the next day not being able to bend from the waist. We can only hope that CC's problem is not on going and holds him back next season. As you mentioned finding a good short stop is tough on the short list. I was surprised when the M's traded Segura to the Phillies, but then again they really tore down that team.
his back. I think he has a future with the club if we thought outside the box a little |
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 13, 2018 5:02:47 GMT -6
I was just looking back at the Astros' mid-August series against the A's in Oakland.
To think that Ramon Laureano played for the Astros in spring training and then came back to sting the team in August as an opponent... ouch.
The Astros got back Brandon Bailey in that deal. Bailey sure better produce. Considering all the Astros' outfield woes, I have to wonder if Laureano could have been part of the solution had he stayed.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Dec 13, 2018 5:43:32 GMT -6
Familia to the Mets.. that club is getting stronger.
Joe Kelly to the Dodgers 3yr 25m. That's a player we should have gotten
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 13, 2018 5:47:33 GMT -6
the sabermetricians use a state called xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) as a stat to predict future hitting performance. The MLB average xwOBA in 2018 was .311. The highest team xwOBA in 2018 was .340, put up by the champion Red Sox. In general, the Astros, need to keep their wOBA (actual weighted on base average) above .325 to be considered a WS-caliber team. So, here are the xwOBA stats for the Astros from 2018 -- which basically predict actual 2019 wOBA.  |
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 13, 2018 6:00:29 GMT -6
The things I would take away from last year's xwOBA stats are --
1) Trust that Tucker will become the outfielder and slugger we expect him to be. The numbers say he will be.
2) Don't be in a hurry to trade away Tyler White; he's a great value at his current price
3) Don't fret about Stassi catching a third to a half of games this year; he'll add good offensive value for a catcher (Chirinos finished 2018 with .319 xwOBA)
4) Don't fret about losing Gattis, McCann, or Maldonado... Marwin should only be re-signed at a reasonable price and number of years.
5) Don't fret if Kemp, Marisnick, or Gurriel should get traded away
6) Reddick and Correa need to step it up and get over whatever was ailing them last year
7) JD Davis probably deserves another look this year; he shined in ST last season and to some extent was a victim of bad luck in the regular season (but only to an extent)
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Post by nathangarza29 on Dec 13, 2018 6:21:17 GMT -6
In the Rule 5 draft Astros need to aim for Travie Bergan LHP Blue Jays.
This guy could be a steal. I hope he slides down to us.
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 13, 2018 6:38:10 GMT -6
In the Rule 5 draft Astros need to aim for Travie Bergan LHP Blue Jays. This guy could be a steal. I hope he slides down to us. I'd support that. Never heard of the guy before, but he's compiled an impressive record up through the AA level. www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bergen000tra Let him pitch in Round Rock this year, then maybe make him a September call-up if he does well. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Dec 13, 2018 6:43:03 GMT -6
In the Rule 5 draft Astros need to aim for Travie Bergan LHP Blue Jays. This guy could be a steal. I hope he slides down to us. I'd support that. Never heard of the guy before, but he's compiled an impressive record up through the AA level. www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bergen000tra Let him pitch in Round Rock this year, then maybe make him a September call-up if he does well. I'm pretty sure he has to stay on the 25 man roster or be offered back before he could go to RR. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 13, 2018 6:52:28 GMT -6
Bergen is a teammate of Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio.
Maybe the Astros could bring Bergen over for spring training before making a firm decision. I think they did this with Mike Hauschild a year or two ago.
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Post by m240 on Dec 13, 2018 7:29:06 GMT -6
taking a flyer on a rule 5 guy is cheap. If you have a 40 man roster spot open, why not.
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Post by m240 on Dec 13, 2018 7:54:03 GMT -6
I completely understand the strategy that Luhnow is using. You have to have a great deal of discipline to manage in this way and I have never been accused of having much of that.
At this point he has made free agent offers, he has made trade offers and it seems from the outside that they are just too far away to pull it together right now. So he will wait until the price gets right and if it does not then he will take his roster as it is today to Spring Training. The obvious and glaring weakness to that roster will be starting pitching. Last year we were really fortunate and got 944 innings from our starters. On average starters delivered around 875-900 innings for their teams. Right now we have 400 nailed down and then a bunch of question marks. We think McHugh and Peacock can stretch it back out but maybe not. We think James is legit but maybe not and the problem with both James and Valdez is that they throw too many pitches per inning (like McCullers) so getting 6 out of them on any day will be considered a big win.
So we to summarize, we can do just fine with the bats we have and then pick up an impact bat at the deadline but we have to get a guy who can eat 200 innings. If we do not then our relievers will be spent by the time we make it to the playoffs and then what. There will be no where to go.
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Post by olpapa on Dec 13, 2018 8:31:33 GMT -6
I'm pretty sure he has to stay on the 25 man roster or be offered back before he could go to RR. The Rule 5 draft consists of a major league phase and a minor league phase. This from mlb.com concerning the major league phase: “A team that selects a player in the Rule 5 Draft pays $50,000 to the team from which he was selected. The receiving team must then keep the player on the Major League 25-man roster for the entirety of the next season, and the selected player must remain active (not on the disabled list) for a minimum of 90 days. If the player does not remain on the Major League roster, he is offered back to the team he was selected from for $25,000. If his original team declines, the receiving team may waive the player. Once a player is selected, he is automatically assigned to his new organization's 40-man roster.” This from Fangraphs: “The Rule 5 Draft occurs in three phases, the MLB phase, where eligible players can be selected and placed on the 25-man roster for a $50,000 fee, and the Triple-A and Double-A phases, where players can be selected for a fee if they are not on the protected list, but in this phase, they do not need to go to the 25-man roster.” |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Dec 13, 2018 8:47:29 GMT -6
Bergen is a teammate of Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio. Maybe the Astros could bring Bergen over for spring training before making a firm decision. I think they did this with Mike Hauschild a year or two ago. If they think he's got the tools and want to get a better look at him, I suppose you could draft him and if you want to keep him without taking up a spot on the 25 man roster, you could arrange a trade in lieu of an offer back to the original club.
I wonder what his spin rate is? |
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Post by blcoach8 on Dec 13, 2018 9:11:27 GMT -6
That is one position playing in the organization that would put you behind the eight ball. Back injuries can be mystery problems, feeling good one day and waking up the next day not being able to bend from the waist. We can only hope that CC's problem is not on going and holds him back next season. As you mentioned finding a good short stop is tough on the short list. I was surprised when the M's traded Segura to the Phillies, but then again they really tore down that team.
his back. I think he has a future with the club if we thought outside the box a littleSince Bregman is a SS playing third base, it would make sense to try your idea of moving Correa to LF and put Bregman at SS. I still think Carlos is a good candidate to leave as a free agent. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2018 9:16:23 GMT -6
Phillies in pursuit of both Andrew Miller & Zach Britton. I am sort of wishing that Luhnow would go after one of these guys. The reason being is IF we don't get any starting pitching this offseason then McHugh and/or Peacock will have to slide into the rotation. This will weaken our bullpen considerably.
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 13, 2018 9:21:22 GMT -6
Phillies in pursuit of both Andrew Miller & Zach Britton. I am sort of wishing that Luhnow would go after one of these guys. The reason being is IF we don't get any starting pitching this offseason then McHugh and/or Peacock will have to slide into the rotation. This will weaken our bullpen considerably. I'd also like to see a premium bullpen add. I don't expect much from Rondon, Smith, or Harris next year. And even less from Devo and Peacock. |
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Post by talshill on Dec 13, 2018 9:22:33 GMT -6
1. I wanted Morton back, but Luhnow is no one's dummy. He knows better than anyone the condition of Morton's shoulder and chose not to make a longer-term commitment to him. My guess is he'll pitch 120-140 innings next year (or maybe less). Fifteen million is a lot of scratch for that, especially for 3 years. 2. Depending upon what the issue actually is, Correa's back issues could linger for a long time. If it's a disc problem, look out. Disc problems and the rotational forces baseball players use all the time are not compatible with staying healthy. 3. Luhnow is thinking long-term, which is great. He only has one more year of Verlander/Cole left and Crain said they are looking to remain relevant long-term. That means young, inexpensive talent is a must so they can pay the big guns and stay under the threshold. Plus, they have to make a decision on Springer. Hence, they can't really trade Tucker or Whitley. Because of that, Luhnow's trying to obtain needs with lower-tier prospects. He's built a championship-caliber team, but it's harder to stay on top than to get there. 4. I'm as anxious as anyone to see how the roster will take shape, but Crain said they may leave the winter meetings with no new players and it might be later this month or January before anyone is added. ST is two months away. They have time. Luhnow has a hard balancing act to perform between long-term relevancy and payroll. I think he's earned the right to not be second-guessed just yet. Patience.
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 13, 2018 9:40:45 GMT -6
Shawn Kelley could be an interesting FA acquisition for the bullpen. I like Ottavino and Cimber a lot too but Kelley would not be nearly as costly.
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Post by unionstation82 on Dec 13, 2018 9:43:23 GMT -6
Phillies in pursuit of both Andrew Miller & Zach Britton. I am sort of wishing that Luhnow would go after one of these guys. The reason being is IF we don't get any starting pitching this offseason then McHugh and/or Peacock will have to slide into the rotation. This will weaken our bullpen considerably. I'd also like to see a premium bullpen add. I don't expect much from Rondon, Smith, or Harris next year. And even less from Devo and Peacock. Not only that but Osuna wasn’t too impressive. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2018 9:45:24 GMT -6
Shawn Kelley could be an interesting FA acquisition for the bullpen. I like Ottavino and Cimber a lot too but Kelley would not be nearly as costly. I'm not too familiar with Kelley's work. I did look up his stats just now and they are solid. It would be worth a shot! |
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Post by unionstation82 on Dec 13, 2018 9:45:49 GMT -6
Shawn Kelley could be an interesting FA acquisition for the bullpen. I like Ottavino and Cimber a lot too but Kelley would not be nearly as costly. Ottavino would be a solid acquisition much like Miller or Britton. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2018 9:47:27 GMT -6
I'd also like to see a premium bullpen add. I don't expect much from Rondon, Smith, or Harris next year. And even less from Devo and Peacock. Not only that but Osuna wasn’t too impressive. Agreed. I feel like this day and age there is just no such thing as lock down closers anymore. Even top closers like Kimbrell and Jansen can be roughed up. I don't see anyway someone gives Kimbrell his 6+ years and 100+ million dollar contract. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Dec 13, 2018 9:51:40 GMT -6
Not only that but Osuna wasn’t too impressive. Agreed. I feel like this day and age there is just no such thing as lock down closers anymore. Even top closers like Kimbrell and Jansen can be roughed up. I don't see anyway someone gives Kimbrell his 6+ years and 100+ million dollar contract. Thy could stand to add at least one more reliever. |
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