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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 20, 2019 10:01:52 GMT -6
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Apr 20, 2019 13:10:40 GMT -6
Or just a tiny bit less icing on his cake. He has been very successful at negotiating ridiculously long contracts for ridiculously high salaries for elite players. Even this year, when the free agent arena looked more like a buyer's market than a seller's market. Bryce Harper, anyone? I doubt the truly elite will run away. There are plenty of players who think they're elite, but are really just good or even very good. Some of them may come to their senses and realize they could do better elsewhere. But many will stay, thinking they'll get a better deal with Boras negotiating for them. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Apr 20, 2019 13:16:34 GMT -6
Btw, is Gerrit Cole a Boras client?
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Post by paastrosfan on Apr 20, 2019 13:26:19 GMT -6
Or just a tiny bit less icing on his cake. He has been very successful at negotiating ridiculously long contracts for ridiculously high salaries for elite players. Even this year, when the free agent arena looked more like a buyer's market than a seller's market. Bryce Harper, anyone? I doubt the truly elite will run away. There are plenty of players who think they're elite, but are really just good or even very good. Some of them may come to their senses and realize they could do better elsewhere. But many will stay, thinking they'll get a better deal with Boras negotiating for them. You are right he was able to get those two guys great contracts. Boras was able to prey on those two organizations probably more to an extent in Philly with pressure from the fans to win now. Going on the supply and demand you have to give Boras props. Let's face it, he has made enough money to get away from the game. Gio I assume was talking for the lesser talented players. |
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Post by paastrosfan on Apr 20, 2019 13:41:30 GMT -6
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Post by paastrosfan on Apr 20, 2019 13:49:15 GMT -6
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 20, 2019 15:58:06 GMT -6
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Apr 20, 2019 21:15:24 GMT -6
It sounds big when you put it that way but it's not a big number, really. Let's do the math. A starter might get 33 starts ... maybe. But that's with a full season. He was sure to miss a few at the beginning because of how late he signed. (March 20) So his first month in the minors was basically his Spring Training, getting in shape for the season.
So it would be a long shot for him to get 30 starts, but let's go with that. 30 x $300k = $9 million. Add the three million he was guaranteed IF he was brought up to the majors and that adds up to $12 million. Same as he made for each of his last 3 years with the Nats.
JV will be making $33 million in 2020. He'll probably make 34 starts. That puts him at just under $1 million per start. Now that's a wow.
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Post by paastrosfan on Apr 20, 2019 21:19:39 GMT -6
It sounds big when you put it that way but it's not a big number, really. Let's do the math. A starter might get 33 starts ... maybe. But that's with a full season. He was sure to miss a few at the beginning because of how late he signed. (March 20) So his first month in the minors was basically his Spring Training, getting in shape for the season.
So it would be a long shot for him to get 30 starts, but let's go with that. 30 x $300k = $9 million. Add the three million he was guaranteed IF he was brought up to the majors and that adds up to $12 million. Same as he made for each of his last 3 years with the Nats.
JV will be making $33 million in 2020. He'll probably make 34 starts. That puts him at just under $1 million per start. Now that's a wow.
Got to look at the caliber of pitcher, a team might be fortunate to get five innings out of Gio a start. Compare how many innings JV averages, that would be worth the day's paycheck.
I did a quick math check on Gio last season only with his Nats innings, not Brewers, it was an average of a little over 5 innings.
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Apr 20, 2019 22:55:03 GMT -6
Got to look at the caliber of pitcher, a team might be fortunate to get five innings out of Gio a start. Compare how many innings JV averages, that would be worth the day's paycheck.
I did a quick math check on Gio last season only with his Nats innings, not Brewers, it was an average of a little over 5 innings.
Value per dollar? Oh, okay. I thought you were just talking about raw numbers. JV is priced about what you would expect. But I still don't see any 'wow' in relation to what Gio would have been paid. 5.4 IP/GS for his last partial year as a Nat isn't great but it isn't horrible. A bit less than that (5.1 IP/GS) with the Brewers. And he was still worth 2.2 WAR for the whole season, 6.5 WAR for the 2017 season. $12 million isn't at all out of line for a pitcher of that caliber. But his performance in the minors this year was underwhelming so it comes as no surprise the Yankees didn't call him up. |
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Post by paastrosfan on Apr 21, 2019 9:59:01 GMT -6
Got to look at the caliber of pitcher, a team might be fortunate to get five innings out of Gio a start. Compare how many innings JV averages, that would be worth the day's paycheck.
I did a quick math check on Gio last season only with his Nats innings, not Brewers, it was an average of a little over 5 innings.
Value per dollar? Oh, okay. I thought you were just talking about raw numbers. JV is priced about what you would expect. But I still don't see any 'wow' in relation to what Gio would have been paid. 5.4 IP/GS for his last partial year as a Nat isn't great but it isn't horrible. A bit less than that (5.1 IP/GS) with the Brewers. And he was still worth 2.2 WAR for the whole season, 6.5 WAR for the 2017 season. $12 million isn't at all out of line for a pitcher of that caliber. But his performance in the minors this year was underwhelming so it comes as no surprise the Yankees didn't call him up. With all the injuries on the Yankees roster and a questionable pitching staff, you would think it would be a no brainer that the Yankees would have exercised the option on his contract. But Gio in his three starts in Scranton have been less than impressive, which maybe why the Yankees wouldn't bite. www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=t531&player_id=461829#/career/R/pitching/2019/ALL |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Apr 21, 2019 11:07:51 GMT -6
The Yankees can still add him to their ML roster. They have 48hrs from the time of his announcement to do so. Gio's opt-out forced them into a 'use me or lose me' situation. It's brinkmanship and I think Gio won't win this one, even with the need the Yankees have. If I was Brian Cashman, I'd say: "Good luck, it was a pleasure doing business with you and I wish you well. If you want to shop around for a deal, please do so. If you don't find any takers, c'mon back and we'll talk. Or we can talk now. But we'll be talking about significantly less money than this contract had to offer." |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 22, 2019 7:37:30 GMT -6
Meanwhile, up in Pittsburgh, Joe Musgrove is rocking a 0.81 ERA and 1.88 FIP through three starts and a relief appearance.
After this season, the Bucs still have 3 arbitration years of Musgrove.
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 22, 2019 12:02:00 GMT -6
I know some of you guys were around for the debut of the Colt 45's back in 1962. I wasn't; my first Astros game was in 1982, which was still pretty fresh off the early playoff run in 1980.
I started to wonder how quickly the Luhnow/Hinch duo could have gotten the Colt 45's to the playoffs if we imagine they had a time machine and could bring their Astroball/Sabermetric tear-it-down-then-build-it-up approach back to 1962.
Given the Mets were born at the same time as the Colt 45's and won it all after only 7 years, it seems that Houston took way longer than necessary to get to the postseason and also to win a WS.
Currently the computer simulation is in 1964 and still no playoff berth (no surprise there) but I'm thinking 1968-69 could be the year.
If the Astros had had the right management right from the start, how long do you think it would have taken to reach the postseason?
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Apr 23, 2019 8:46:14 GMT -6
I know some of you guys were around for the debut of the Colt 45's back in 1962. I wasn't; my first Astros game was in 1982, which was still pretty fresh off the early playoff run in 1980. I started to wonder how quickly the Luhnow/Hinch duo could have gotten the Colt 45's to the playoffs if we imagine they had a time machine and could bring their Astroball/Sabermetric tear-it-down-then-build-it-up approach back to 1962.
Given the Mets were born at the same time as the Colt 45's and won it all after only 7 years, it seems that Houston took way longer than necessary to get to the postseason and also to win a WS. Currently the computer simulation is in 1964 and still no playoff berth (no surprise there) but I'm thinking 1968-69 could be the year. If the Astros had had the right management right from the start, how long do you think it would have taken to reach the postseason? Different time, different mindset. Sound kind of unfair to allow the Astros be the only team with a modern approach during that era, dontcha think? |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 23, 2019 8:56:22 GMT -6
I know some of you guys were around for the debut of the Colt 45's back in 1962. I wasn't; my first Astros game was in 1982, which was still pretty fresh off the early playoff run in 1980. I started to wonder how quickly the Luhnow/Hinch duo could have gotten the Colt 45's to the playoffs if we imagine they had a time machine and could bring their Astroball/Sabermetric tear-it-down-then-build-it-up approach back to 1962.
Given the Mets were born at the same time as the Colt 45's and won it all after only 7 years, it seems that Houston took way longer than necessary to get to the postseason and also to win a WS. Currently the computer simulation is in 1964 and still no playoff berth (no surprise there) but I'm thinking 1968-69 could be the year. If the Astros had had the right management right from the start, how long do you think it would have taken to reach the postseason? Different time, different mindset. Sound kind of unfair to allow the Astros be the only team with a modern approach during that era, dontcha think? It's just a thought experiment undertaken out of curiosity. Sure, it's unrealistic, but realism isn't a first principle in this little exercise (though some people could make it one if they wanted to). I get the sense that the Colt 45's tried to use their strong pitching staff to get on a quick road to success, but found that all those complete games and shutouts they racked up didn't really help them much because they didn't have many guys who could hit. I'm guessing that Luhnow would have recognized the impracticality of what the Colt 45's were trying to do and sought to make the team a contender only once the offense was respectable. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Apr 23, 2019 8:58:58 GMT -6
It's just a thought experiment undertaken out of curiosity. Sounds like mental masturbation.  |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 23, 2019 23:20:39 GMT -6
overall the Astros seem to be a better fielding team this year than last (Aledmys' horrible game aside).
Bregman, especially, is doing much better than in years past. He has usually finished each season with a fielding pct in the .960s, but this year he is errorless in about 60 total plays made.
That sunny game in Arlington caused some bad miscues but in every recent season, the Astros have won a higher percentage of their day games than their night games, so overall I wouldn't expect the Astros to suffer too much when playing in the afternoon sun.
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 24, 2019 7:15:41 GMT -6
overall the Astros seem to be a better fielding team this year than last (Aledmys' horrible game aside). Bregman, especially, is doing much better than in years past. He has usually finished each season with a fielding pct in the .960s, but this year he is errorless in about 60 total plays made. That sunny game in Arlington caused some bad miscues but in every recent season, the Astros have won a higher percentage of their day games than their night games, so overall I wouldn't expect the Astros to suffer too much when playing in the afternoon sun. I think Bregman does an admirable job at 3B for a middle infielder. A lot of scouts pegged him as a 2B but look at him now. In fairness, Altuve leaves much to be desired at 2B in terms of range. I don’t know what his defensive metrics are, but I often see plays, which I assume will be made, that are out of his diving reach. His arm strength is also mediocre. |
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Post by Saint on Apr 24, 2019 7:36:37 GMT -6
overall the Astros seem to be a better fielding team this year than last (Aledmys' horrible game aside). Bregman, especially, is doing much better than in years past. He has usually finished each season with a fielding pct in the .960s, but this year he is errorless in about 60 total plays made. That sunny game in Arlington caused some bad miscues but in every recent season, the Astros have won a higher percentage of their day games than their night games, so overall I wouldn't expect the Astros to suffer too much when playing in the afternoon sun. I think Bregman does an admirable job at 3B for a middle infielder. A lot of scouts pegged him as a 2B but look at him now. In fairness, Altuve leaves much to be desired at 2B in terms of range. I don’t know what his defensive metrics are, but I often see plays, which I assume will be made, that are out of his diving reach. His arm strength is also mediocre. Altuve generally falls in the average to a little above-average overall defensively. He's not off to a great start this year though. |
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Post by Saint on Apr 24, 2019 15:38:39 GMT -6
I just realized it's going to be Bregman vs. Bauer on Thursday. Mouthy vs. Mouthier. Who will win???
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Post by m240 on Apr 28, 2019 17:33:51 GMT -6
Do not be surprised if we sign Keuchel next week. Our bullpen needs another reliable arm and there are none in Round Rock right now outside of Whitley and Martin. So sign Keuchel and put Peacock in long relief.
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Apr 28, 2019 18:13:04 GMT -6
Do not be surprised if we sign Keuchel next week. Our bullpen needs another reliable arm and there are none in Round Rock right now outside of Whitley and Martin. So sign Keuchel and put Peacock in long relief. Comparing their last starts, maybe keep peacock in the rotation and move mchugh to be. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Apr 28, 2019 18:24:02 GMT -6
Do not be surprised if we sign Keuchel next week. Our bullpen needs another reliable arm and there are none in Round Rock right now outside of Whitley and Martin. So sign Keuchel and put Peacock in long relief. Keuchel might be an answer but he won't be a quick solution. Even if he's been staying in shape, throwing bullpen sessions, he hasn't faced a ML hitter for six months. If signed to a major league contract, placing him on the roster means someone else will need to be removed. That creates a hole and fills it with someone who's coming in cold. The obvious solution would be to sign him to a minors contract. There can be serious salary guaranteed upon call up, but without roughly a month in the minors (to gear himself up as well as to prove his worth) this could be a recipe for making the situation even worse. JMO |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2019 7:05:36 GMT -6
Do not be surprised if we sign Keuchel next week. Our bullpen needs another reliable arm and there are none in Round Rock right now outside of Whitley and Martin. So sign Keuchel and put Peacock in long relief. Considering it wil take a least of couple of weeks to get Kuechel into game condition (late ST), his worth has been fractionalized accordingly. I bet that QO has a kind of "crow-y" about rght now. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2019 7:54:33 GMT -6
Do not be surprised if we sign Keuchel next week. Our bullpen needs another reliable arm and there are none in Round Rock right now outside of Whitley and Martin. So sign Keuchel and put Peacock in long relief. Considering it wil take a least of couple of weeks to get Kuechel into game condition (late ST), his worth has been fractionalized accordingly. I bet that QO has a kind of "crow-y" about rght now. Crow-y taste. (I meant) |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Apr 29, 2019 8:46:20 GMT -6
@txheat10k, I don't think turning down the QO was a bad move. But standing firm on the demand for five years or more was definitely a blunder.
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Post by bearbryant on Apr 29, 2019 8:53:53 GMT -6
Looking at the individual stats, it's tough to argue Goldschmidt wouldn't have been the perfect addition to the lineup. It'd be interesting to know what Luhnow offered if we were in on that
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2019 8:59:18 GMT -6
Looking at the individual stats, it's tough to argue Goldschmidt wouldn't have been the perfect addition to the lineup. It'd be interesting to know what Luhnow offered if we were in on that Just having bragging rights of having maybe the greatest IF in MLB history would have been damned cool. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 29, 2019 9:12:25 GMT -6
Looking at the individual stats, it's tough to argue Goldschmidt wouldn't have been the perfect addition to the lineup. It'd be interesting to know what Luhnow offered if we were in on that What do you then do about Gurriel? Also, they likely don’t get Brantley in the process. |
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