|
|
Post by olpapa on Aug 3, 2019 10:58:53 GMT -6
Here is s link to Roster Resource payroll info on Astros. At the bottom of the page it has a detailed explanation of how the Luxury Tax works and also has the estimate of where the Astros stand vs the luxury tax for this year and several years down the road based on players we have under contract now; with FA walking each year, etc: www.rosterresource.com/mlb-houston-astros-info/That's pretty handy, the way they automatically add the benefits in for the CBT threshold calculation. And they've factored in a portion of Greinke's salary this year. So there isn't much room between where the Astros are for 2019 and the threshold. Lots of blanks to fill in for next year with arb guys and spots filled by exiting FAs. I anticipate that Marisnick, McHugh and Rondon will definitely be gone before OD next season and replaced by cheaper options. At least one of Peacock and Harris is likely to be replaced as well IMO. Probably Joe Smith too. That would go a long way toward paying for arb increases and re-signing Cole. Do you think Cole would re-sign for 5 years $175 million? |
|
marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
Posts: 4,358 
Likes: 446
|
Post by marshall on Aug 3, 2019 11:04:23 GMT -6
Here is s link to Roster Resource payroll info on Astros. At the bottom of the page it has a detailed explanation of how the Luxury Tax works and also has the estimate of where the Astros stand vs the luxury tax for this year and several years down the road based on players we have under contract now; with FA walking each year, etc: www.rosterresource.com/mlb-houston-astros-info/That's pretty handy, the way they automatically add the benefits in for the CBT threshold calculation. And they've factored in a portion of Greinke's salary this year. So there isn't much room between where the Astros are for 2019 and the threshold. Lots of blanks to fill in for next year with arb guys and spots filled by exiting FAs. It appears they narrowed the Max Gap threshold by applying all of the money from Arizona to the 2020 and 2021 contract years and absorbing all $13M due for the remaining of this year in the current payroll. After applying thae money to those years, Greinke will be costing the Astros about $23.7M per year in 2020 and 2021. |
|
marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
Posts: 4,358
Likes: 446
|
Post by marshall on Aug 3, 2019 11:06:57 GMT -6
It's giving me a headache trying to fish through this contractual rules largess. One thing is for certain though, Crane better be ready to open his checkbook on a monumental basis. He already has. He's staying near the cap which previous owners have not done. But we can't pay everyone market value and stay close to the cap. It's just not realistic. We have created too much player value. |
|
marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
Posts: 4,358
Likes: 446
|
Post by marshall on Aug 3, 2019 11:09:02 GMT -6
That's pretty handy, the way they automatically add the benefits in for the CBT threshold calculation. And they've factored in a portion of Greinke's salary this year. So there isn't much room between where the Astros are for 2019 and the threshold. Lots of blanks to fill in for next year with arb guys and spots filled by exiting FAs. I anticipate that Marisnick, McHugh and Rondon will definitely be gone before OD next season and replaced by cheaper options. At least one of Peacock and Harris is likely to be replaced as well IMO. Probably Joe Smith too. That would go a long way toward paying for arb increases and re-signing Cole. Do you think Cole would re-sign for 5 years $175 million? Smith is not under contract for next year anyway. I didn't think we'd get any value after he went on long term IR. But he has come back, so there's something. |
|
|
|
Post by blcoach8 on Aug 3, 2019 11:09:33 GMT -6
That's pretty handy, the way they automatically add the benefits in for the CBT threshold calculation. And they've factored in a portion of Greinke's salary this year. So there isn't much room between where the Astros are for 2019 and the threshold. Lots of blanks to fill in for next year with arb guys and spots filled by exiting FAs. I anticipate that Marisnick, McHugh and Rondon will definitely be gone before OD next season and replaced by cheaper options. At least one of Peacock and Harris is likely to be replaced as well IMO. Probably Joe Smith too. That would go a long way toward paying for arb increases and re-signing Cole. Do you think Cole would re-sign for 5 years $175 million? l think Boras will try to get him not to take it. A lot depends on how happy he is here and how much winning means to him. If he is all about money, we probably lose him . 5/$175 million will get his attention and he probably wants a long-term deal. If he would take 3 years for $90million it would be better. Crane is smart enough to see that the increased ticket and merchandise sales keep increasing as the team keep winning. The fans are giving him the money to keep these guys plus TV revenue has to be considered; |
|
|
|
Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Aug 3, 2019 11:24:20 GMT -6
Pitcher of the Month: Cole (back to back months)
Player of the Month: Gurriel
Rookie of the Month: Alvarez
The Astros are the first team since June 2006 to have the Player, Pitcher, and Rookie of the Month in its respective league. 😱
|
|
|
|
Post by olpapa on Aug 3, 2019 11:36:14 GMT -6
I anticipate that Marisnick, McHugh and Rondon will definitely be gone before OD next season and replaced by cheaper options. At least one of Peacock and Harris is likely to be replaced as well IMO. Probably Joe Smith too. That would go a long way toward paying for arb increases and re-signing Cole. Do you think Cole would re-sign for 5 years $175 million? Smith is not under contract for next year anyway. I didn't think we'd get any value after he went on long term IR. But he has come back, so there's something. I am aware that Smith is not under contract for next year. Neither is Harris or Peacock. By saying they are “likely to be replaced” or “probably gone,” I mean that I don’t see Luhnow re-signing them, but rather he will replace them with a cheaper option. |
|
|
|
Post by blcoach8 on Aug 3, 2019 11:40:07 GMT -6
Pitcher of the Month: Cole (back to back months) Player of the Month: Gurriel Rookie of the Month: Alvarez The Astros are the first team since June 2006 to have the Player, Pitcher, and Rookie of the Month in its respective league. 😱 all well deserved |
|
|
|
Post by thomasj13 on Aug 3, 2019 11:50:09 GMT -6
That's pretty handy, the way they automatically add the benefits in for the CBT threshold calculation. And they've factored in a portion of Greinke's salary this year. So there isn't much room between where the Astros are for 2019 and the threshold. Lots of blanks to fill in for next year with arb guys and spots filled by exiting FAs. I anticipate that Marisnick, McHugh and Rondon will definitely be gone before OD next season and replaced by cheaper options. At least one of Peacock and Harris is likely to be replaced as well IMO. Probably Joe Smith too. That would go a long way toward paying for arb increases and re-signing Cole. Do you think Cole would re-sign for 5 years $175 million? I would hope Cole would re-sign for that amount? Springer 6 year 200M? Correa trade after the 2020 season or before trade deadline in 2021... Hopefully the top prospects that Luhnow did not trade can be major contributors in the coming years...need to offset these big contracts with a lot of cheap ones. |
|
|
|
Post by olpapa on Aug 3, 2019 11:53:25 GMT -6
I anticipate that Marisnick, McHugh and Rondon will definitely be gone before OD next season and replaced by cheaper options. At least one of Peacock and Harris is likely to be replaced as well IMO. Probably Joe Smith too. That would go a long way toward paying for arb increases and re-signing Cole. Do you think Cole would re-sign for 5 years $175 million? I would hope Cole would re-sign for that amount? Springer 6 year 200M? Correa trade after the 2020 season or before trade deadline in 2021... Hopefully the top prospects that Luhnow did not trade can be major contributors in the coming years...need to offset these big contracts with a lot of cheap ones. If we could re-sign Cole and extend Springer, I would be a happy camper. |
|
|
|
Post by m240 on Aug 3, 2019 12:12:01 GMT -6
I detailed how you do it in a previous post. It is done all the time. A signing bonus is paid up front and amoritized over the course of the contract. We have 22 million under the luxury tax this year and the only way to use it is with signing bonuses. You extend Springer and give him a big signing bonus and reduce his contract for next year to 1 million with the balance being paid up front. Do the same with a big chunk of Altuve money and there you go another 22 million. It can happen it just takes a little bit of cooperation and the intelligence and knowledge on how the process works. Long term deferrals are stupid though on that we can agree I'm not sure I follow your logic. Say we extend Springer, for the sake of a round number, to a 5 yr/$100m contract. He's going to hit the cap for $20m/yr no matter what you actually pay him this year vs. next year vs. year 3, etc. The object is to sign Cole and Springer to longer term deals. Currently that can not be done because we will exceed the payroll limits with any sort of deal that is evenly distributed. So if you sign Springer to a longer term deal you can choose how you divide up the monies. Currently Springer has a deal for next year of 12 million dollars. So if the problem is next year you sign him to a deal that would pay him a large signing bonus and reduce his contract for next year. So if his deal is for an additional 3 years at 25 million then he would be on tract to earn 12 million next year, and 25 million a year after that. So Verlander and Greinke have huge deals now for the next two years so you sign him for 87 million total for the 4 years of the deal but pay him a signing bonus of 24 million. That 24 million is broken into 4 years plus the balance of this year. You now have 5 years to break down the 24 million into. His salary could be broken down to 1 million for next year and 12 million for the year after that and then the cost for the last two years would be 29.8 million per year. So from a cash flow perspective Springer would receive: 2019 - an additional 24 million 2020 - a reduction of 11 million 2021 - a reduction of 13 million 2022 - no impact on cash flow 2023 - no impact on cash flow From a salary tax perspective the net impact would be 2019 - an extra 4.8 million in this year 2020 - a reduction of 6.2 million for this year 2021 - a reduction of 8.2 million for this year 2022 - an increase of 4.8 million for this year 2023 - an increase of 4.8 million for this year Work a deal out with Altuve and Cole as well so that we use of the extra 22 million in space that we have for this year. The players should not care as the cash actually works out better for them. It works for the team because they keep their window open for a longer period without really compromising the future beyond 22 and 23 and those are the years that we lose Verlander and Grienke's huge salaries. So that is how you do it, if everyone wants to keep the window open and likes playing here this works to keep Cole here. |
|
|
|
Post by m240 on Aug 3, 2019 12:29:09 GMT -6
Well roster resource has a big difference in the numbers from Sportrac. Sportrac originally had our hit for Greinke as a lot less than what Resource has it as and I am not sure where the other difference is. The number that Sportrac had yesterday was that we have a 22 million dollar gap between the current obligations and the tax threshold. If it is only slightly less than 5 million then all that crap I typed above does not matter as 5 million is not worth the mental gymnastics. that leaves us with just figuring out how to dump Reddick to get the money to sign Cole and then working out the details with him if he is willing.
|
|
|
|
Post by m240 on Aug 3, 2019 12:39:49 GMT -6
In looking at Roster Resource there are two errors that I believe that they have. The first is that George Springer signed a two year deal last winter and next year he is going to earn 12 million. The other is that Brad Peacock only had 4.1 years of service time at the end of last year so he will not be a free agent until after 2020. The deal with the way Grienke's money is paid out confuses me though as several sites must of got that wrong. I had heard that 1/3 of his salary was deferred for 19, 20, and 21. So what was reported was the net impact for him for us for the next two years was only 11 million per year with a hickey of 24 million in 2022. If Resource is correct then they must of reworked that portion of his deal as the deal was made.
|
|
|
|
Post by blcoach8 on Aug 3, 2019 13:20:36 GMT -6
In looking at Roster Resource there are two errors that I believe that they have. The first is that George Springer signed a two year deal last winter and next year he is going to earn 12 million. The other is that Brad Peacock only had 4.1 years of service time at the end of last year so he will not be a free agent until after 2020. The deal with the way Grienke's money is paid out confuses me though as several sites must of got that wrong. I had heard that 1/3 of his salary was deferred for 19, 20, and 21. So what was reported was the net impact for him for us for the next two years was only 11 million per year with a hickey of 24 million in 2022. If Resource is correct then they must of reworked that portion of his deal as the deal was made. You have done your homework. We can keep Cole and extend Springer if things work out |
|
|
|
Post by nathangarza29 on Aug 3, 2019 16:17:36 GMT -6
Finger crossed for Aaron Sanchez tonight I hope he listens to the Catcher and Strom. I get this is his first time out and up close look. But still I hope he lights it up
|
|
|
|
Post by olpapa on Aug 3, 2019 16:19:44 GMT -6
In looking at Roster Resource there are two errors that I believe that they have. The first is that George Springer signed a two year deal last winter and next year he is going to earn 12 million. The other is that Brad Peacock only had 4.1 years of service time at the end of last year so he will not be a free agent until after 2020. The deal with the way Grienke's money is paid out confuses me though as several sites must of got that wrong. I had heard that 1/3 of his salary was deferred for 19, 20, and 21. So what was reported was the net impact for him for us for the next two years was only 11 million per year with a hickey of 24 million in 2022. If Resource is correct then they must of reworked that portion of his deal as the deal was made. Check Cots Baseball Contracts. Springer’s deal was for 2018 and 2019. He has one more Arb year after his 2018-2019 deal expires. |
|
|
|
Post by m240 on Aug 3, 2019 16:50:53 GMT -6
In looking at Roster Resource there are two errors that I believe that they have. The first is that George Springer signed a two year deal last winter and next year he is going to earn 12 million. The other is that Brad Peacock only had 4.1 years of service time at the end of last year so he will not be a free agent until after 2020. The deal with the way Grienke's money is paid out confuses me though as several sites must of got that wrong. I had heard that 1/3 of his salary was deferred for 19, 20, and 21. So what was reported was the net impact for him for us for the next two years was only 11 million per year with a hickey of 24 million in 2022. If Resource is correct then they must of reworked that portion of his deal as the deal was made. Check Cots Baseball Contracts. Springer’s deal was for 2018 and 2019. He has one more Arb year after his 2018-2019 deal expires. You sir are correct. |
|
talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
Posts: 2,015
Likes: 1,115
|
Post by talshill on Aug 3, 2019 19:19:48 GMT -6
I'm not sure I follow your logic. Say we extend Springer, for the sake of a round number, to a 5 yr/$100m contract. He's going to hit the cap for $20m/yr no matter what you actually pay him this year vs. next year vs. year 3, etc. Deffered Money is discounted by it's discount rate.
Pushing a signing bonus up enables you to include part of it to the current year rather than lose any gap you have. Not all of it, but some. Any that you can regain will not count against the future cap. It still costs the same, but it enables you to free up some future cap space.
The accounting is tricky, but shifting the hits to MLBs salary calculations enables you to maximize your spending without hitting the cap.
Got it. You want to make full use of this year's cap by accelerating payment in the form of a signing bonus, but you still have the same issue. George is under contract for $12m for the remainder of this year and next year. The math is simple; he counts $12m against the cap. As far as I know, the only way to accelerate that money THIS year is to tear up the remainder of his contract for this year and next year and sign a new deal, say 5 years $120m. It doesn't matter how much money you pay him in the form of a bonus because it's all going to be averaged based on $/yrs. Sure, give him $40m this year (or whatever) and $2m next year. Doesn't matter how you divvy up the money, he's going to count $24m against the cap every year. I'm pretty dense, so I'd be very interested in seeing how you can get around a cap based on AAV. |
|
talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
Posts: 2,015
Likes: 1,115
|
Post by talshill on Aug 3, 2019 19:23:52 GMT -6
I'm not sure I follow your logic. Say we extend Springer, for the sake of a round number, to a 5 yr/$100m contract. He's going to hit the cap for $20m/yr no matter what you actually pay him this year vs. next year vs. year 3, etc. The object is to sign Cole and Springer to longer term deals. Currently that can not be done because we will exceed the payroll limits with any sort of deal that is evenly distributed. So if you sign Springer to a longer term deal you can choose how you divide up the monies. Currently Springer has a deal for next year of 12 million dollars. So if the problem is next year you sign him to a deal that would pay him a large signing bonus and reduce his contract for next year. So if his deal is for an additional 3 years at 25 million then he would be on tract to earn 12 million next year, and 25 million a year after that. So Verlander and Greinke have huge deals now for the next two years so you sign him for 87 million total for the 4 years of the deal but pay him a signing bonus of 24 million. That 24 million is broken into 4 years plus the balance of this year. You now have 5 years to break down the 24 million into. His salary could be broken down to 1 million for next year and 12 million for the year after that and then the cost for the last two years would be 29.8 million per year. So from a cash flow perspective Springer would receive: 2019 - an additional 24 million 2020 - a reduction of 11 million 2021 - a reduction of 13 million 2022 - no impact on cash flow 2023 - no impact on cash flow From a salary tax perspective the net impact would be 2019 - an extra 4.8 million in this year 2020 - a reduction of 6.2 million for this year 2021 - a reduction of 8.2 million for this year 2022 - an increase of 4.8 million for this year 2023 - an increase of 4.8 million for this year Work a deal out with Altuve and Cole as well so that we use of the extra 22 million in space that we have for this year. The players should not care as the cash actually works out better for them. It works for the team because they keep their window open for a longer period without really compromising the future beyond 22 and 23 and those are the years that we lose Verlander and Grienke's huge salaries. So that is how you do it, if everyone wants to keep the window open and likes playing here this works to keep Cole here. How do you get around the cap being based on AAV? Your numbers work in the NFL, but not MLB. I certainly hope you can prove me wrong, as I would love to retain Cole and Springer. |
|
|
|
Post by m240 on Aug 3, 2019 20:37:52 GMT -6
The object is to sign Cole and Springer to longer term deals. Currently that can not be done because we will exceed the payroll limits with any sort of deal that is evenly distributed. So if you sign Springer to a longer term deal you can choose how you divide up the monies. Currently Springer has a deal for next year of 12 million dollars. So if the problem is next year you sign him to a deal that would pay him a large signing bonus and reduce his contract for next year. So if his deal is for an additional 3 years at 25 million then he would be on tract to earn 12 million next year, and 25 million a year after that. So Verlander and Greinke have huge deals now for the next two years so you sign him for 87 million total for the 4 years of the deal but pay him a signing bonus of 24 million. That 24 million is broken into 4 years plus the balance of this year. You now have 5 years to break down the 24 million into. His salary could be broken down to 1 million for next year and 12 million for the year after that and then the cost for the last two years would be 29.8 million per year. So from a cash flow perspective Springer would receive: 2019 - an additional 24 million 2020 - a reduction of 11 million 2021 - a reduction of 13 million 2022 - no impact on cash flow 2023 - no impact on cash flow From a salary tax perspective the net impact would be 2019 - an extra 4.8 million in this year 2020 - a reduction of 6.2 million for this year 2021 - a reduction of 8.2 million for this year 2022 - an increase of 4.8 million for this year 2023 - an increase of 4.8 million for this year Work a deal out with Altuve and Cole as well so that we use of the extra 22 million in space that we have for this year. The players should not care as the cash actually works out better for them. It works for the team because they keep their window open for a longer period without really compromising the future beyond 22 and 23 and those are the years that we lose Verlander and Grienke's huge salaries. So that is how you do it, if everyone wants to keep the window open and likes playing here this works to keep Cole here. How do you get around the cap being based on AAV? Your numbers work in the NFL, but not MLB. I certainly hope you can prove me wrong, as I would love to retain Cole and Springer. Well actually you can not because there is no room this year to do anything except screw things up worse. My information was wrong on the structure of Grienke's deal. We are missing a year and 22 million in space that I thought we had. |
|
marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
Posts: 4,358
Likes: 446
|
Post by marshall on Aug 4, 2019 9:50:59 GMT -6
I'm waiting for Saint to start the Gameday thread.
|
|
|
|
Post by blcoach8 on Aug 4, 2019 11:26:08 GMT -6
I'm waiting for Saint to start the Gameday thread. NO..we lose when he starts it |
|
|
|
Post by nathangarza29 on Aug 4, 2019 13:33:23 GMT -6
Reymin Guduan suspended for the rest of the season due to disciplinary issue. Not a good idea to misbehave when you’re on the fringes of the 40 man.
Might be cut soon
|
|
|
|
Post by abregmanfan on Aug 4, 2019 14:40:42 GMT -6
Reymin Guduan suspended for the rest of the season due to disciplinary issue. Not a good idea to misbehave when you’re on the fringes of the 40 man. Might be cut soon What did he do? |
|
talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
Posts: 2,015
Likes: 1,115
|
Post by talshill on Aug 4, 2019 15:14:39 GMT -6
Reymin Guduan suspended for the rest of the season due to disciplinary issue. Not a good idea to misbehave when you’re on the fringes of the 40 man. Might be cut soon What did he do? Ticked off the wrong person. |
|
|
|
Post by m240 on Aug 4, 2019 15:39:16 GMT -6
Did you see what happened to Fisher last night. Talk about a double slap in the face for the Blue Jays.
|
|
|
|
Post by blcoach8 on Aug 4, 2019 16:20:23 GMT -6
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2019 16:32:58 GMT -6
HAHA, I posted the photo of that within minutes of it happening. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Aug 4, 2019 16:37:35 GMT -6
So, for fun I looked up the Marlins game to see how many players on their team I could recognize. Only two starters in Granderson and Castro (and one bench players Prado) That's it!
I thought I saw Hanley Ramirez in the box score under his first initial "H" (I thought he retired) but then realized it was a rookie Harold Ramirez.
|
|
|
|
Post by olpapa on Aug 4, 2019 16:48:28 GMT -6
Did you see what happened to Fisher last night. Talk about a double slap in the face for the Blue Jays. He had his eye on the ball....literally😜 |
|
