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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 11, 2018 20:04:06 GMT -6
The Astros now have 429 ABs on the year and that is starting to be enough of a sample size to compare this year's hitting to previous years'. A few thing to take away from the stats so far (mostly positive):
* 2018 Astros are doing a great job of ground ball avoidance relative to previous seasons (I only looked at 2015 to 2017)
* 2018 Astros are hitting significantly more line drives (that's great since LDs have a high probability of falling for a hit)
* 2018 Astros have a wRC+ of 109, which is higher than both of the 2015 and 2016 Astros but lower than the 2017 team. Basically it means this year's team is hitting 9% better than the MLB average
* 2018 Astros lead the AL in on base percentage at .341. That is largely fuelled by a 10.1% walk rate, which is higher than it's been at any time in the past few years.
* The higher walk rate comes from the Astros being more selective at the plate. They are only swinging at 42% of pitches. By comparison, the 2017 Astros swung 45% of the time and the strikeout-happy 2015 team swung 48% of the time.
* Unfortunately, looking at so many pitches has caused a spike in strikeouts, particularly on called strikes.
* The 2018 team's whiff rate is 9.7%, higher than 2017's 8.5% but lower than the 11.5% that the club maintained in 2015-2016. The main culprits this year are, in order: Davis, Fisher, Marisnick, Springer. Kudos to Gattis, Altuve, McCann, and Bregman, who are hardly whiffing at all.
* The 2018 team is hitting the ball a little harder than the 2017 team in terms of exit velocity. This suggests we are going to see plenty of extra base hits and HRs this year.
* The 2018 team is going opposite field more than it has in any recent previous season. Maybe this is a response to defensive shifting.
* Astros' hitters K rate is way high at 25% (compare to 17% last year or 23% for the 2015 playoff team) but in recent games that has come down, and Yuli's return will help.
All this is to say that when we dig into the underlying hitting metrics, it's possible to see that the 2018 team has a good chance of matching or even surpassing the 2017 team's offensive production. Cold weather and ring ceremony hoopla may have temporarily suppressed the offense over the past week but let's not let that obscure the positive aspects of what the Astros are doing at the plate.
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 11, 2018 21:18:02 GMT -6
The offense right now is great at taking close pitches for balls, but there is a time for patience and a time to strike. That is what is lacking since the Reddick slam and what made today’s game A LITTLE better.
Right now, the team is basically getting nothing from the top 5 hitters, and their current 6-9 is AAA caliber.
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 11, 2018 21:34:37 GMT -6
Speaking of hitting, Elvis Andrus is on the ground writhing in pain as I write this. No, I'm not happy to see it, even if he is a Ranger.
But Andrus has been one of his team's top bats, so if he is unable to play in the coming series, that will tend to favor the Astros' chances a bit.
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 11, 2018 21:52:39 GMT -6
The batted ball data suggest that Marisnick and Springer are swinging too much, especially at bad pitches; whereas Gattis and Marwin aren't swinging often enough. The case most worrisome to me is Marwin's, because he is simply failing to make contact even when he swings at balls in the zone. It's as though his basic hand/eye coordination is slipping. When he does make contact, he tends to swing under the ball, producing a lot of pop-ups and cans of corn. Unless Marwin can make adjustments, he projects to be a replacement-level bat this year.
I don't worry much about Fisher because he is probably headed to AAA soon where he belongs.
Gattis can be replaced by White later this year if necessary. Marisnick is a harder case because even though Ted could replace him in the OF, that would leave the Astros without a speedster on the bench. The team really needs to have at least one guy who can fill the pinch runner role late in games when slow pokes like McCann and Davis get on base with the tying/winning run. Cam Maybin filled that role well last year but he's no longer with the team, so it would be hard to get rid of both Fisher and Marisnick at the same time.
Springer's average launch angle this year is a couple degrees higher than it was last year's, suggesting that he (like Marwin) is getting under the ball a bit much. Might just need a little tweak. Also, Springer needs to be a little less prone to pulling the trigger. He's chasing a lot of bad pitches. I'd like to see Hinch swap Reddick and Springer in the batting order.
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 12, 2018 4:55:46 GMT -6
Speaking of hitting, Elvis Andrus is on the ground writhing in pain as I write this. No, I'm not happy to see it, even if he is a Ranger. But Andrus has been one of his team's top bats, so if he is unable to play in the coming series, that will tend to favor the Astros' chances a bit. The Rangers are of no consequence. To me, the division is a three-horse race. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 12, 2018 5:07:31 GMT -6
Gattis can be replaced by White later this year if necessary. Marisnick is a harder case because even though Ted could replace him in the OF, that would leave the Astros without a speedster on the bench. The team really needs to have at least one guy who can fill the pinch runner role late in games when slow pokes like McCann and Davis get on base with the tying/winning run. Cam Maybin filled that role well last year but he's no longer with the team, so it would be hard to get rid of both Fisher and Marisnick at the same time. That’s a trio I’m tired of seeing: Gattis, Fisher, and Marisnick. When Gurriel gets back, one of the last two should be on the bench while the other is sent packing for the minors. I also eventually want Tucker called up so that Marwin can be his backup. He’s played admirably the past few seasons, and while I won’t forget how he stepped up in being the starting LF for us last season and in the postseason, I think it’s time to both scale him back to a utility role and see what our top prospect can do. It’s sad to say that about Marwin, but it’s time to face facts and both understand his best role on the team and to embrace the fact that some other GM will pay him more than Luhnow, which will be more than he’s worth. |
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Post by Saint on Apr 12, 2018 8:16:44 GMT -6
Gattis can be replaced by White later this year if necessary. Marisnick is a harder case because even though Ted could replace him in the OF, that would leave the Astros without a speedster on the bench. The team really needs to have at least one guy who can fill the pinch runner role late in games when slow pokes like McCann and Davis get on base with the tying/winning run. Cam Maybin filled that role well last year but he's no longer with the team, so it would be hard to get rid of both Fisher and Marisnick at the same time. That’s a trio I’m tired of seeing: Gattis, Fisher, and Marisnick. When Gurriel gets back, one of the last two should be on the bench while the other is sent packing for the minors. I also eventually want Tucker called up so that Marwin can be his backup. He’s played admirably the past few seasons, and while I won’t forget how he stepped up in being the starting LF for us last season and in the postseason, I think it’s time to both scale him back to a utility role and see what our top prospect can do. It’s sad to say that about Marwin, but it’s time to face facts and both understand his best role on the team and to embrace the fact that some other GM will pay him more than Luhnow, which will be more than he’s worth. I wouldn't give up on Gattis. He has limited value defensively, but he's been above average for us offensively. |
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talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
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Post by talshill on Apr 12, 2018 9:04:40 GMT -6
Not worried at all. They're out of rhythm at the moment but they'll get it going. Yuli's return should help.
Fisher will get a long look to see if he can replace Marisnick, who earns 1.9 million this year and will be due a raise next year (his second arb year) no matter how much he flails at bad pitches. Fisher flails away too, but better to flail for 500k versus the 3+ million Marisnick will get next season. My guess is that Marwin won't come close to repeating last year's numbers and will sign somewhere else in the off-season which means they'll need a utility guy. He's making 5.125 million this year. LF is Tucker's very soon.
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Post by thomasj13 on Apr 12, 2018 9:09:54 GMT -6
That’s a trio I’m tired of seeing: Gattis, Fisher, and Marisnick. When Gurriel gets back, one of the last two should be on the bench while the other is sent packing for the minors. I also eventually want Tucker called up so that Marwin can be his backup. He’s played admirably the past few seasons, and while I won’t forget how he stepped up in being the starting LF for us last season and in the postseason, I think it’s time to both scale him back to a utility role and see what our top prospect can do. It’s sad to say that about Marwin, but it’s time to face facts and both understand his best role on the team and to embrace the fact that some other GM will pay him more than Luhnow, which will be more than he’s worth. I wouldn't give up on Gattis. He has limited value defensively, but he's been above average for us offensively. It is ironic the worst Astros deemed starting hitter is the DH...Isn't the DH's specialty is to just hit? They are too bad defensively to play in the field....All they do is bat 4 times a game...they don't have to use an energy out in the field....You would think your DH would be at least in the top 3 or 4 of your hitters... |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 12, 2018 9:49:09 GMT -6
I wouldn't give up on Gattis. He has limited value defensively, but he's been above average for us offensively. It is ironic the worst Astros deemed starting hitter is the DH...Isn't the DH's specialty is to just hit? They are too bad defensively to play in the field....All they do is bat 4 times a game...they don't have to use an energy out in the field....You would think your DH would be at least in the top 3 or 4 of your hitters... I agree, and yet only 7 of the AL teams are projected to get over 1.0 WAR from their Designated Hitters this year. The Astros are projected to only generate 0.6 WAR from this position. I'm fine with letting Gattis take the majority of DH reps in April and May. If he can hit for at least the league average OPS of around .750, it's probably a decent bet to keep him. But if he can't manage that level of production, the odds that White/Reed/Davis would do worse are pretty small. In Tyler White's case, I think there is a considerable case to be made that he's hit for at least .800 OPS -- and, White could play the field too even though as a below-average defender. Jack Mayfield and Drew Ferguson might also be emerging as potential DH options. I'm hoping OlPapa can fill us in on how he views those players' potential to contribute to the big league club this year. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 12, 2018 9:53:54 GMT -6
The Astros have produced 5 or more runs in only 5 of their 14 games so far, which falls short of pre-season expectations a bit. However, the early returns on the Astros' fundamental hitting skills (avoiding swings at pitches outside the zone, exit velo, launch angle...) suggest that the team's hitters have, as a whole, prepared well for this year and will start to see more of their efforts translate into runs as the number of ABs increases and good/bad luck have a chance to even out.
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 12, 2018 9:55:08 GMT -6
I wouldn't give up on Gattis. He has limited value defensively, but he's been above average for us offensively. Gattis stinks. Just because the other options are worse doesn’t make him above average by default. |
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Post by olpapa on Apr 12, 2018 10:19:31 GMT -6
It is ironic the worst Astros deemed starting hitter is the DH...Isn't the DH's specialty is to just hit? They are too bad defensively to play in the field....All they do is bat 4 times a game...they don't have to use an energy out in the field....You would think your DH would be at least in the top 3 or 4 of your hitters... I agree, and yet only 7 of the AL teams are projected to get over 1.0 WAR from their Designated Hitters this year. The Astros are projected to only generate 0.6 WAR from this position. I'm fine with letting Gattis take the majority of DH reps in April and May. If he can hit for at least the league average OPS of around .750, it's probably a decent bet to keep him. But if he can't manage that level of production, the odds that White/Reed/Davis would do worse are pretty small. In Tyler White's case, I think there is a considerable case to be made that he's hit for at least .800 OPS -- and, White could play the field too even though as a below-average defender. Jack Mayfield and Drew Ferguson might also be emerging as potential DH options. I'm hoping OlPapa can fill us in on how he views those players' potential to contribute to the big league club this year. If I had to pick one of them who is more likely to contribute this year, I would pick Mayfield. He is a couple years older than Ferguson and has 5 years in the minors behind him compared to Ferguson’s 3. Mayfield had some ST time with the Astros in 2017 and 2018 and did well in 2018. I think 2018 was Ferguson’s first exposure to ST. Mayfield plays 2B, 3B and SS. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fresno introduce Mayfield to LF at some point this season. Ferguson strictly plays the OF. Much easier to take an IFer and teach him to play a little OF than to take an OFer and make an IFer out of him methinks. I will be surprised if Ferguson sees any time on the infield. All that said, I don’t think you will see either Mayfield or Ferguson in an Astros uniform this year. Rather than a DH, I think it more likely that Mayfield will force himself into the conversation for who will replace Marwin next season in the utility role than who will replace Gattis at DH. Unless Gattis turns it around big time between now and the end of this season, I don’t think he will be with the Astros next year. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Apr 12, 2018 11:04:41 GMT -6
Speaking of hitting, Elvis Andrus is on the ground writhing in pain as I write this. No, I'm not happy to see it, even if he is a Ranger. But Andrus has been one of his team's top bats, so if he is unable to play in the coming series, that will tend to favor the Astros' chances a bit. The Rangers are of no consequence. To me, the division is a three-horse race. The only two teams in the division that could contend with us are the Angels and Mariners and I don't think either has the pitching depth. The Rangers and A's will battle for the cellar and I think the Rangers finish on the bottom of the pile. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Apr 12, 2018 11:07:34 GMT -6
I wouldn't give up on Gattis. He has limited value defensively, but he's been above average for us offensively. It is ironic the worst Astros deemed starting hitter is the DH...Isn't the DH's specialty is to just hit? They are too bad defensively to play in the field....All they do is bat 4 times a game...they don't have to use an energy out in the field....You would think your DH would be at least in the top 3 or 4 of your hitters... I think it was a mistake not to sign another bat over the winter. Gattis is too inconsistent and now he is taking too many third called strikes. I would like to see Correa be more aggressive early in the count. I know it's hard to question his success but I will never understand his tendency to take two strikes before swinging the bat. Fisher is over-matched and needs to be sent down.....Davis is a better choice at this point. |
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Post by Saint on Apr 12, 2018 11:58:43 GMT -6
I wouldn't give up on Gattis. He has limited value defensively, but he's been above average for us offensively. Gattis stinks. Just because the other options are worse doesn’t make him above average by default. Gattis has averaged 24 HR and a 112 OPS+ for only $3 million a year so far for us.... He can backup at catcher, 1B, or LF if needed and we don't have a better DH right now. Who would be a better DH for us right now? Plus he has the best nickname on the team. If Gattis stinks, then in comparison we've only got a few position players that don't.... |
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Post by blcoach8 on Apr 12, 2018 12:13:20 GMT -6
Right now, Gattis does stink.....as does most of the rest of them.
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Post by Saint on Apr 12, 2018 12:21:33 GMT -6
I wouldn't give up on Gattis. He has limited value defensively, but he's been above average for us offensively. It is ironic the worst Astros deemed starting hitter is the DH...Isn't the DH's specialty is to just hit? They are too bad defensively to play in the field....All they do is bat 4 times a game...they don't have to use an energy out in the field....You would think your DH would be at least in the top 3 or 4 of your hitters... Well I think our catchers should be DHing when they aren't catching, personally. They're both 110 OPS+ type hitters still, and we don't have anybody else better. |
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Post by Saint on Apr 12, 2018 12:23:52 GMT -6
Right now, Gattis does stink.....as does most of the rest of them. We just need to see a little more power and hitting with RISP. Most of them are not far off from what we need (outside of Springer atm). |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 12, 2018 13:15:57 GMT -6
It is ironic the worst Astros deemed starting hitter is the DH...Isn't the DH's specialty is to just hit? They are too bad defensively to play in the field....All they do is bat 4 times a game...they don't have to use an energy out in the field....You would think your DH would be at least in the top 3 or 4 of your hitters... Well I think our catchers should be DHing when they aren't catching, personally. They're both 110 OPS+ type hitters still, and we don't have anybody else better. I really think Tyler White would be better than Gattis. White is probably good for an OPS+ of at least 120 this year. I say that based on how he hit at the major league level last year and at AAA last year and what he is doing for Fresno now. He got off to a good start in spring training and then went through a stretch of bad BABIP luck that suppressed his batting average. But if we take the luck factor out, he was hitting like a .260 hitter with power this spring. White has maintained a very consistent K% right around 25% in both AAA and major leagues. That's a tad high (I'd like to see him pare it down to 15-17%) but acceptable for a guy who has a very large percentage o his hits go for extra bases. Gattis is approaching 35% strikeouts now, by comparison. |
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Post by Saint on Apr 12, 2018 13:29:07 GMT -6
Well I think our catchers should be DHing when they aren't catching, personally. They're both 110 OPS+ type hitters still, and we don't have anybody else better. I really think Tyler White would be better than Gattis. White is probably good for an OPS+ of at least 120 this year. I say that based on how he hit at the major league level last year and at AAA last year and what he is doing for Fresno now. He got off to a good start in spring training and then went through a stretch of bad BABIP luck that suppressed his batting average. But if we take the luck factor out, he was hitting like a .260 hitter with power this spring. White has maintained a very consistent K% right around 25% in both AAA and major leagues. That's a tad high (I'd like to see him pare it down to 15-17%) but acceptable for a guy who has a very large percentage o his hits go for extra bases. Gattis is approaching 35% strikeouts now, by comparison. Quite frankly I'm surprised we've had Davis up instead of White, period. But, out of those three guys, I'm sticking with the guy that has a proven MLB track record. (At least for now...) |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 12, 2018 14:18:17 GMT -6
I really think Tyler White would be better than Gattis. White is probably good for an OPS+ of at least 120 this year. I say that based on how he hit at the major league level last year and at AAA last year and what he is doing for Fresno now. He got off to a good start in spring training and then went through a stretch of bad BABIP luck that suppressed his batting average. But if we take the luck factor out, he was hitting like a .260 hitter with power this spring. White has maintained a very consistent K% right around 25% in both AAA and major leagues. That's a tad high (I'd like to see him pare it down to 15-17%) but acceptable for a guy who has a very large percentage o his hits go for extra bases. Gattis is approaching 35% strikeouts now, by comparison. Quite frankly I'm surprised we've had Davis up instead of White, period. But, out of those three guys, I'm sticking with the guy that has a proven MLB track record. (At least for now...) Tyler White OPS since returning from Fresno in August 2016 -- Sept/Oct 2016 - .791 (MLB) 2017 - .853 (MLB), equivalent to OPS+ of 131 2017 - .898 (AAA) 2018 - .938 (AAA) through his first 27 ABs |
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Post by unionstation82 on Apr 12, 2018 19:16:37 GMT -6
Gattis has averaged 24 HR and a 112 OPS+ for only $3 million a year so far for us.... He can backup at catcher, 1B, or LF if needed and we don't have a better DH right now. Who would be a better DH for us right now? Plus he has the best nickname on the team. If Gattis stinks, then in comparison we've only got a few position players that don't.... People like Gattis because he has an everyman quality about him. No one ever doubted his power, but the fact is that he is not the first guy you think of when you’re wondering which Astro would be reliable with men on base. He takes ugly hacks, chops the ball to infielders, and strikes out at a decent clip. If he’s a full time catcher, he gets a pass for his hitting, but he doesn’t do anything but try to hit. He had one great season at DH, and that was two years ago. When your one job is to smash pitches, you better be great at it. Look, if he were that decent of a hitter, you wouldn’t have seen the Beltrán signing |
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Post by Saint on Apr 13, 2018 6:40:03 GMT -6
Gattis has averaged 24 HR and a 112 OPS+ for only $3 million a year so far for us.... He can backup at catcher, 1B, or LF if needed and we don't have a better DH right now. Who would be a better DH for us right now? Plus he has the best nickname on the team. If Gattis stinks, then in comparison we've only got a few position players that don't.... People like Gattis because he has an everyman quality about him. No one ever doubted his power, but the fact is that he is not the first guy you think of when you’re wondering which Astro would be reliable with men on base. He takes ugly hacks, chops the ball to infielders, and strikes out at a decent clip. If he’s a full time catcher, he gets a pass for his hitting, but he doesn’t do anything but try to hit. He had one great season at DH, and that was two years ago. When your one job is to smash pitches, you better be great at it. Look, if he were that decent of a hitter, you wouldn’t have seen the Beltrán signing The stats say that he is an above-average hitter for us and for his career, and every season he has had was better than Beltran's 2017. I don't think he is one of our top hitters (nobody does), but he's certainly been a solid player and a respectable hitter for a reasonable price. He has proven that he is a productive hitter at the MLB level. He hasn't received full playing time since he hit 34 HRs and that doesn't make sense, quite frankly. Beltran never should have been signed for last year, but the Astros were hoping he could repeat his 2016 season (which was better than Gattis).
Gattis 2016: 32 HR .251/.319/.508 .826 (125 OPS+) 3.0 WAR in only 128 games. Beltran 2016: 122 OPS+ and a 2.0 WAR....There was no reason to sign Beltran other than intangibles, imo. Certainly not for the money.
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Post by Saint on Apr 13, 2018 6:43:27 GMT -6
Quite frankly I'm surprised we've had Davis up instead of White, period. But, out of those three guys, I'm sticking with the guy that has a proven MLB track record. (At least for now...) Tyler White OPS since returning from Fresno in August 2016 -- Sept/Oct 2016 - .791 (MLB) 2017 - .853 (MLB), equivalent to OPS+ of 131 2017 - .898 (AAA) 2018 - .938 (AAA) through his first 27 ABs Yeah he looks better. I'm still sticking with the guy with a proven track record as long as the cost difference is minimal. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 13, 2018 7:06:01 GMT -6
Well I'm not sure how I missed this, but it's official now -- Davis has been sent back to AAA to make room for Gurriel. I had hoped Hinch would send Fisher down instead. Davis was just starting to catch fire and now... this. Fisher will only start to add value with his bat when he can start elevating the ball and making contact on balls in the zone. Fisher is seeing a higher percentage of strikes than any other Astro right now and he still cannot capitalize.
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 13, 2018 7:14:41 GMT -6
Fisher is a curious case. He looked great in his first 50 ABs last season and only struck out about 25% of the time. But over his past 150 ABs, he has been a strikeout machine and can't seem to hit to save his life. We're talking .550 OPS territory, a good 100 points lower than 2017 Beltran even. Maybe Hinch and Hudgens think they can get Fisher back to what he was doing in those first 50 ABs.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2018 7:16:40 GMT -6
Well I'm not sure how I missed this, but it's official now -- Davis has been sent back to AAA to make room for Gurriel. I had hoped Hinch would send Fisher down instead. Davis was just starting to catch fire and now... this. Fisher will only start to add value with his bat when he can start elevating the ball and making contact on balls in the zone. Fisher is seeing a higher percentage of strikes than any other Astro right now and he still cannot capitalize. I agree that Davis has been swinging the bat far better than Fisher. This just all revolves around needed that extra outfielder. If Fisher was sent down then Marisnick would pretty much have to start every game. Not sure though at the moment who is better in the lineup Marisnick or Fisher on a regular basis. I guess if they sent Fisher down, Gattis could play left field and Davis could be the DH. Gattis hasn't played the field in a long time though. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 13, 2018 7:47:41 GMT -6
When I look at some freeze-frames of Fisher's June/July 2017 ABs (when he was hitting well) and compare them to his strikeout ABs today, I don't notice any huge changes in his stance, bat path, or position in the batter's box, but it is clear that he is bending his right knee more than he did in mid-2017. When he was hitting well, he tended to keep his right knee pretty straight while bending the left knee slightly. Perhaps he shouldn't be trying to get in such a crouch at the plate. Also, in mid-2017 he was tending to keep his toes pointed more horizontally in the batter's box, whereas today he has them pointing out towards third base. That might be creating a weird angle for his bat path.
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Post by astrosdoug on Apr 13, 2018 7:50:14 GMT -6
Well I'm not sure how I missed this, but it's official now -- Davis has been sent back to AAA to make room for Gurriel. I had hoped Hinch would send Fisher down instead. Davis was just starting to catch fire and now... this. Fisher will only start to add value with his bat when he can start elevating the ball and making contact on balls in the zone. Fisher is seeing a higher percentage of strikes than any other Astro right now and he still cannot capitalize. I agree that Davis has been swinging the bat far better than Fisher. This just all revolves around needed that extra outfielder. If Fisher was sent down then Marisnick would pretty much have to start every game. Not sure though at the moment who is better in the lineup Marisnick or Fisher on a regular basis. I guess if they sent Fisher down, Gattis could play left field and Davis could be the DH. Gattis hasn't played the field in a long time though. I was thinking more along the lines of having these outfielders: Springer - CF Reddick - RF Gonzalez/Marisnick/Davis - LF With Yuli back in the lineup, there won't be much need for Marwin to play the infield like there has been the past couple of weeks. |
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