Take Heart! Astros bats are gonna be OK

[astrosdoug]

The June 2018 Astros are finally making up for some of the weak hitting that opened the season. Here are the good bits from the last 30 days of play:

* Astros lead MLB in wRC+ at 135. The closest teams after that are the Yankees & Dodgers at 119. The Mariners and Red Sox are above-average but far behind at 106.

* Team BABIP of .324 is very sustainable; the 135 wRC+ is not due to an abundance of good luck or anything like that.

* Astros K% is down to 18.9% for the past month. While the Yankees have hit 11 more home runs than the Astros in that time, they K 23.9% of the time, so overall they are paying too high a price for those extra home runs.

* Astros BA is .289. The Reds are hitting a respectable .264 in the NL but with little power. Only the Pirates have done better than the Astros at strikeout avoidance, at 18.3%.

* Fangraphs estimates that GIDPs have caused the Astros to lose only a third of a run more than the average team was likely to have done. The Yankees have done the AL's best job of avoiding DP's, while the Rays have lost an estimated 1.3 runs to the DP.

* Astros stolen bases have had a recent surge, with 19 of this year's 36 SBs coming in the last 30 days alone. The Red Sox are the AL's biggest base stealing team, and as we start to envision a Stassi/Stubbs platoon for 2019 it will be interesting to see how much Boston can steal on the Astros then.

* Astros are 3rd in the AL, behind the Tigers and Rangers, in terms of overall baserunning success such as advancing on sac flies, advancing 1st to third on a single, etc.

* Astros are hitting 15.7% of their fly balls out of the park, compared with 12.2% avg for the MLB. This number probably won't start going down till September when the weather cools. Having Tyler White up only increases the odds of hitting home runs.

* Astros lead the AL in infield hits at 30. In fact, 9.5% of the Astros' hits for the last month have not left the infield. This goes together with the strong UBR (Ultimate Base Running) statistic, which has the Astros as, on balance, among the league's fastest teams.

* Astros have had the lowest swinging strike rate in the league, at 8.7%. by contrast, upcoming opponents the White Sox lead the league at 13%. A corollary to this is that the Astros have the second-highest contact rate in the AL, making some kind of contact (even if just a foul ball) on 80.3% of swings. Only the Indians are doing better, at 81%.

* Astros hitters have been the least likely in the MLB to see a first-pitch strike, which they see only 57.6% of the time. this suggests there is some real fear on the part of opposing pitchers, who are likely to get started with a 1-0 count, and that obviously sets things up well for the Astros.

* Though we wouldn't have known it in the game vs. Keller, the Astros remain the league's second most-patient team at the plate, choosing to look at 55.8% of all pitches. This seems to be part of drawing walks and getting into good counts. Only the Rangers refrain from swinging at more pitches at 56.9%.

Even though the Astros' team ERA has only been the 9th-best out of 15 AL teams over the past 30 days (at 3.70), the hitting has carried the team to a great winning streak. xFIP projections, however, see the Astros pitching staff returning to the lead league with about a 3.47 ERA over the next month.

Significantly, the teams with the dimmest pitching projections for the next month are also most of the Astros' upcoming opponents: The Royals, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Athletics.

[unionstation82]

This thread ended up being a reminder that this offense also comes with peaks and not just valleys.

[astrosdoug]

Despite appearing in fewer than half the number of games as Marisnick (26 vs. 53), Tony Kemp has now exceeded Marisnick's season hit total.

Kemp has 24 hits and an OPS of .825, while Marisnick has 22 hits and an OPS of .521... buoyed somewhat by his HR off of some team's outfielder they threw on the mound late in a game.

[astrosdoug]

Astros team OPS+ now stands at 120, which is best in the majors and far ahead of NYY at 112.

The 2017 Astros had a team OPS of 125. This is just to say... Astros hitting is getting darned close to its championship form.

[astrosdoug]

By position, the Astros' WAR and MLB ranking is:

C: 7th at 1.3 WAR
1B: 15th at 0.7
2B: 1st at 2.5
SS: 2nd at 2.8
3B: 7th at 2.0
LF: 17th at 0.6
CF: 5th at 1.6
RF: 4th at 1.5
DH: 7th at 0.5

Those figures confirm what we already know, I think, about what players might need to be promoted from AAA or traded for.

[astrosdoug]

Here are some numbers on the Astros' quality of contact based on the first half of the season

[astrosdoug]

smaller version of the table

i.imgur.com/x0ohqjn.png

What it suggests is that Jake, McCann, Marwin, and Yuli all project to be somewhat below-average hitters in the second half.

Maybe the defensive strengths of Jake/McCann compensate for their shortcomings at the plate. Maybe Marwin's versatility and Yuli's RISP tendencies help compensate too.

But if Luhnow had to think about replacing those guys over the next 12 to 18 months, who would get the new jobs?

Jake - Tucker, Straw, Hamilton, Castellanos
McCann - Stubbs, Grandal? Flowers?
Marwin - White, Kemp, Alvarez?
Yuli - White, Davis, Abreu? (Votto?)

Just throwing out some possibilities. Maybe some of those 4 weakish hitters are not on the 2018 postseason roster.

[blcoach8]

The projection for Yuli seems highly suspect to say the least, and, if accurate, doesn't tell the whole story. This is the guy who leads the league in hitting with RISP, which means more than "projections". Numbers are interesting but seldom reveal the whole story or take the human element into account. I would also like to know how McCann has any "defensive strengths".....He is not good at throwing out potential base-stealers and seems to allow more pitches to get away from him than he should. He is great at calling a game and working with pitchers and I think our starting staff, especially Verlander, is more comfortable with him behind the plate, although I think Stassi is a superior defensive catcher and is now a better hitter. I wish McCann would learn to take advantage of the extreme shift used against him and hit the ball to the left side more often instead of pulling the ball into the shift for easy outs and an automatic DP with a runner on first base.

[astrosdoug]

By this same metric (xwOBA, Expected Weighted On-Base Average), the Astros project to be a puny 8th in hitting in the MLB going foward through the rest of the season.

The numbers are at this link

Upgrading Jake's and Marwin's spots is essential, in my opinion, for the Astros to compete in the postseason.

I'm afraid that for various reasons, Luhnow won't dare touch McCann, even though he projects to weigh the team down quite a lot.

Getting Abreu, giving Yuli the utility infielder role, and trading or dismissing Marwin+Jake make sense too.

[astrosdoug]

Jul 2, 2018 11:10:43 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

The projection for Yuli seems highly suspect to say the least, and, if accurate, doesn't tell the whole story. This is the guy who leads the league in hitting with RISP, which means more than "projections". Numbers are interesting but seldom reveal the whole story or take the human element into account. I would also like to know how McCann has any "defensive strengths".....He is not good at throwing out potential base-stealers and seems to allow more pitches to get away from him than he should. He is great at calling a game and working with pitchers and I think our starting staff, especially Verlander, is more comfortable with him behind the plate, although I think Stassi is a superior defensive catcher and is now a better hitter. I wish McCann would learn to take advantage of the extreme shift used against him and hit the ball to the left side more often instead of pulling the ball into the shift for easy outs and an automatic DP with a runner on first base.

These numbers are interesting to look at, but we can rest assured that by the end of the season there will be many players whose actual results either far exceeded or fell far short of their projections.

Yuli's projections are low because he doesn't take many walks or see many pitches. If he can develop more patience at the plate and work walks, it probably boosts his OBP by 50 points or so and that would work wonders for his projections (if they are really important at all -- I'm really only concerned with winning).

I agree with you that McCann's main value at this point is in calling games and in his rapport with the pitching staff, esp Verlander. In a video-game world, I'd say give McCann an early retirement and a nice team dinner as a send-off, then bring up Stubbs. The offense and defense would likely improve as a result. But in real life, there is just too much money invested in McCann this year to do that, to say nothing of the effect on the clubhouse if McCann were cut loose before October.

Maybe a compromise would be to keep McCann on the DL about 50-60% of the remainder of the regular season, giving Stubbs a chance to adjust to major league pitching, then bring a rested McCann in for the postseason campaign. 

[astrosdoug]

Jul 2, 2018 11:03:32 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

smaller version of the table

i.imgur.com/x0ohqjn.png

What it suggests is that Jake, McCann, Marwin, and Yuli all project to be somewhat below-average hitters in the second half.

Maybe the defensive strengths of Jake/McCann compensate for their shortcomings at the plate. Maybe Marwin's versatility and Yuli's RISP tendencies help compensate too.

But if Luhnow had to think about replacing those guys over the next 12 to 18 months, who would get the new jobs?

Jake - Tucker, Straw, Hamilton, Castellanos
McCann - Stubbs, Grandal? Flowers?
Marwin - White, Kemp, Alvarez?
Yuli - White, Davis, Abreu? (Votto?)

Just throwing out some possibilities. Maybe some of those 4 weakish hitters are not on the 2018 postseason roster.

So at the beginning of the month, four Astros hitters were projected (by xwOBA) to be below-average hitters over the remainder of the season. How did that projection work out in July?

Two of the hitters (Marisnick and McCann) are not currently on the active roster. 

Marwin hit for a .621 OPS (.220 AVG). Yuli hit for a .726 OPS (.279 AVG) over the past 30 days. 

The Astros can live with Yuli's production, but I'm not so sure about Marwin's. 

In July, the hitters who struggled the most were, in order:

Marisnick .400 OPS
Davis .400 OPS
Tucker .462 
Fedo .546 
Stassi .555
Marwin .615
Yuli .678

Altuve and Springer were only slightly below league average at .703 and .709. Still, the Astros need those MVP type players to do much more than 'slightly below average'.

Four players absolutely did not struggle in the otherwise forgettable month of July 2018:

White 1.001 OPS
Bregman .985
Kemp .834
Gattis .805 

If those four can keep up the good work while Altuve+Springer return to normal and Correa comes back healthy, that will be a playoff-ready offense even though it probably won't compare well to Boston's. 

[astrosdoug]

What to do with the strugglers and stragglers of this July?

Marisnick - keep him in Fresno until late August or early September. He may still be a useful postseason piece strictly as a pinch runner and late-inning defender.

Davis - Needs more time at AAA. It's true that major league ABs are what he needs most to improve as a hitter, but in a pennant race there is no time for charity or player development if it's going to impact the team's ability to win.

Tucker .462 - He looks to be improving his swing and pitch selection. I hold out hope he will be playoff ready by October. If he continues to struggle in August, a trade at the waiver deadline can be made.

Fedo .546 - DFA'd

Stassi .555 - Stassi should primarily be starting games against LHP. If Hinch uses Stassi like that, his OPS in August should be at least .750 which is fine for the C position.

Marwin .615 - Should not bring this player into the postseason. White is a much better hitter, and the old excuse that Marwin should take the utility role based on his defense has worn thin (just look at all his errors and misplays in July).

Yuli .678 - Yuli is what he is. If he's coachable (he may not be), Hinch needs to get him to work pitch counts so that he either gets a good ball to hit, or takes a walk. Right now Bregman has the best plate discipline on the team and that should be the model for all other players to imitate. White's approach at the plate is nearly identical to Bregman's and isn't it funny how Bregman has a season OPS of .916 while White sits at .915. Similar plate approach, similar results. Who would have thunk it.

[Deleted]

Aug 1, 2018 2:16:07 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

What to do with the strugglers and stragglers of this July?

Marisnick - keep him in Fresno until late August or early September. He may still be a useful postseason piece strictly as a pinch runner and late-inning defender.

Davis - Needs more time at AAA. It's true that major league ABs are what he needs most to improve as a hitter, but in a pennant race there is no time for charity or player development if it's going to impact the team's ability to win.

Tucker .462 - He looks to be improving his swing and pitch selection. I hold out hope he will be playoff ready by October. If he continues to struggle in August, a trade at the waiver deadline can be made.

Fedo .546 - DFA'd

Stassi .555 - Stassi should primarily be starting games against LHP. If Hinch uses Stassi like that, his OPS in August should be at least .750 which is fine for the C position.

Marwin .615 - Should not bring this player into the postseason. White is a much better hitter, and the old excuse that Marwin should take the utility role based on his defense has worn thin (just look at all his errors and misplays in July).

Yuli .678 - Yuli is what he is. If he's coachable (he may not be), Hinch needs to get him to work pitch counts so that he either gets a good ball to hit, or takes a walk. Right now Bregman has the best plate discipline on the team and that should be the model for all other players to imitate. White's approach at the plate is nearly identical to Bregman's and isn't it funny how Bregman has a season OPS of .916 while White sits at .915. Similar plate approach, similar results. Who would have thunk it.

Marwin won't be left off the post season roster.  His covering of multiple bases will come in handy if there is an injury or a shake up needed to jump start this team in a series.  Plus he does have a history or hitting in a big time situation, Hinch will not forget that.

I never worry about Yuli either.  Let him be who he is right now as hitting clutch shots and driving in RBIs is the most important thing.

I still think White will disappoint us tremendously down the stretch and in the post season.  At full strength I think he may be the odd man out- no place for him.

Lineup I want to see with Kemp in (we all know Springer will continue to hit leadoff)

cf Springer

rf Kemp

2b Altuve

3b Bregman

ss Correa

1b Yuli

rf Reddick

dh Gattis

c Maldonado/Stassi

Lineup I want to see with Tucker in

cf Springer
rf Reddick
2b Altuve
3b Bregman
ss Correa
1b Yuli
dh Gattis

c Maldonado/Stassi

lf Tucker/Marwin

Why do I like this lineup and Correa batting 5th?  Because we need separation from our main hitters.  When they are bunched up we have innings where we literally fall apart.  However, by separating them I feel this team always has a chance to score and get on base every inning.

Moving Bregman behind Altuve puts a ton of pressure on the pitcher to get Altuve out.  Bregman has shown to be a more disciplined hitter and would rather have him cleanup.  Correa would ultimately mop up and Yuli will be ready to continue to mash (which also makes his impatience at the plate less of a problem).

Gattis and Marwin in the bottom of the order would be crazy for a pitcher to see (much like when Beltran and McCann held that last year).  Marwin is better suited for the 9th spot anyhow.

Marwin hitting 8th or 9th is 10/33 .300 avg and a .455 OB% while about .890 OPS.  The higher up the order he goes the weaker he hits.

Gattis batting 6th or 7th is 46/177 .260 avg, 12 HRs, 43 RBIs, .320 OB% .850 OPS

Then there's Reddick.  Batting 2nd over the past 3 years he is 79/266 .297 avg .342 OB% .838 OPS.  In the 6th/7th spot he is 62/201 .304 avg. 368 OB% .830 OPS

[astrosdoug]

A couple of unlikely batting heroes have emerged from the Astros over the last 2 weeks of play:



The way Jake started the season, I don't think many of us would have thought he would shine this brightly in August.

Maybe he needs to work on a schedule of 2 weeks with the Astros, then 2 weeks with Grizzlies... for the entire season. Maybe it's the tacos in Fresno. Maybe it's the girls. Maybe it's the wildfires. Who knows, who cares. Whatever works for him.

Tyler White has inserted himself into the same conversation as Jose Abreu and Matt Carpenter. If Abreu should come over in a late August trade, watch out AL!

[astrosdoug]

As much as I can't stand the Rangers, I have to say that Rougned Odor (no. 5 on the list) laid down one of the most beautiful bunts I've seen in a long time just the other day.

[astrosdoug]

For the past month, the results are not so good for the team as a whole (only 1 player in the Top 20) but Tyler White stands out among the entire MLB over that time period:



White's numbers this year at the major league level are just a tad below his minor league numbers. On the surface that seems hard to do given the better pitching in MLB, but then again the baseballs in MLB are said to be springier (as they're made in Costa Rica) than the MILB balls (which are made in China).

In the offseason I thought Tyler could feasibly get 1 HR per 20 PAs, but in reality he is on a pace of something like 1 homer every 14 trips to the plate. That's Stanton territory.

[Saint]

Aug 10, 2018 5:57:50 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

For the past month, the results are not so good for the team as a whole (only 1 player in the Top 20) but Tyler White stands out among the entire MLB over that time period:



White's numbers this year at the major league level are just a tad below his minor league numbers. On the surface that seems hard to do given the better pitching in MLB, but then again the baseballs in MLB are said to be springier (as they're made in Costa Rica) than the MILB balls (which are made in China).

In the offseason I thought Tyler could feasibly get 1 HR per 20 PAs, but in reality he is on a pace of something like 1 homer every 14 trips to the plate. That's Stanton territory.

It looks like White is getting his confidence back too.  I hope they keep playing the hot hand with him.

[thomasj13]

Aug 10, 2018 7:07:00 GMT -6 Saint said:

Aug 10, 2018 5:57:50 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

For the past month, the results are not so good for the team as a whole (only 1 player in the Top 20) but Tyler White stands out among the entire MLB over that time period:



White's numbers this year at the major league level are just a tad below his minor league numbers. On the surface that seems hard to do given the better pitching in MLB, but then again the baseballs in MLB are said to be springier (as they're made in Costa Rica) than the MILB balls (which are made in China).

In the offseason I thought Tyler could feasibly get 1 HR per 20 PAs, but in reality he is on a pace of something like 1 homer every 14 trips to the plate. That's Stanton territory.

It looks like White is getting his confidence back too.  I hope they keep playing the hot hand with him.


You only like him because he is White. Racist!

[astrosdoug]

White has maintained his high OPS (.866 this year) from last season (.888) when he hits against lefties.

So many people are hating on him this year because he has struggled against righties... but let's be rational about this, he has only had 14 PAs against righties since Opening Day.

White hit righties well above the league average level throughout 2017 and 2018, so it's not like he is going to forget that skill set.

Once he's had 100 PAs against righties, if he still can't hit the ball, it might be time to think about a replacement. For the time being, Hinch can get the most out of White by starting him on days when the team faces a LHSP and then sub him in on other nights when a lefty reliever replaces a righty starter.

[nathangarza29]

The Astros are doing fine.
My only issue is the Great Guppie and "glassies needed stassi"

Yordan would be an awesome call up and maybe Stubbs.

Has anyone seen the real Kyle Tucker who should be traded and should have been traded along time ago?
Im sure we could still ship him off if we need a Player or Pitcher still but man that .192avg is crepuscular.

Sham on those who said he is and will be a great player.... he is Preston his brother all over again.
.