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Post by astrosdoug on May 9, 2018 12:45:12 GMT -6
Wait, the Braves have MLB’s top offense? What have I missed? it's scary but true. maybe they will take Marwin for Freddie Freeman. |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2018 14:35:09 GMT -6
Looks like AJ Reed is going to be another Brett Wallace. Singing...... I am the Walrus Goo Goo G'joob OTOH....I think he might be the Egg Man |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on May 9, 2018 15:01:39 GMT -6
Looks like AJ Reed is going to be another Brett Wallace. Singing...... I am the Walrus Goo Goo G'joob OTOH....I think he might be the Egg Man Hurry back, OMB |
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2018 22:01:45 GMT -6
I'm not worried about this team... way too early. It's hard to have a special kind of club made up of professionals and not feel a it lethargic in the regular season. They know they can compete and win in the post season and the mind becomes bored sometimes. Need constant juggling to stay in it all the time. Sounds weird to say when millions are on the line but apparently it's true
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Post by astrosdoug on May 10, 2018 2:12:14 GMT -6
The Astros have leapfrogged the Mariners in team OPS and now are in 6th place in MLB at .749. The next team to try to leapfrog is the Cubs. The weird thing is, the Astros are hitting .289 on the road but only .227 at home. In fact, by OPS, the Astros have the second-worst offense in MLB at home. They are literally hitting like they are the Marlins or Orioles at home. Actually not even as good as the Orioles. It's crazy. I'm not sure if the problem has to do with their daily routine, the food in the clubhouse, family issues/demands (while in Houston), spiritual stuff (did the Dodgers hire a voodoo witch to put a hex on MMP?  ). Whatever it is, they need to change things up. Maybe they can invite all the wives, kids, and girlfriends for brunch at MMP. Change up the catering. Have a minister come in and pray over the ballpark. Kind of like a team chaplain. Play Glenn Miller during BP. Anything to jazz things up, no pun intended. |
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Post by astrosdoug on May 10, 2018 2:17:18 GMT -6
In all fairness, it's not the whole team that is falling on its face at home. Reddick has hit very well at home, and Fisher and Springer have hit well too.
But Correa, Bregman, and the usual suspects (Gattis, Marisnick) have been horrible there. So it might be more of an individual thing in regard to the issues at MMP.
The Astros are far and away the most fearsome road team (OPS .892). The Angels are up there too.
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Post by astrosdoug on May 10, 2018 2:21:13 GMT -6
In spite of the Astros only hitting .227 at home, they are holding opposing teams to a .212 batting avg at MMP, which I'm guessing must make MMP the lowest-scoring ballpark in MLB this season.
If that continues a few months longer, it might make some people start to wonder whether there is something about the visual background that batters see (the batter's eye, restaurants, signage, lights) that is making it a hard park to hit in.
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Post by bearbryant on May 10, 2018 4:21:50 GMT -6
I'm not sure if the problem has to do with their daily routine, the food in the clubhouse, family issues/demands (while in Houston), spiritual stuff (did the Dodgers hire a voodoo witch to put a hex on MMP? ). Whatever it is, they need to change things up. Maybe they can invite all the wives, kids, and girlfriends for brunch at MMP. Change up the catering. Have a minister come in and pray over the ballpark. Kind of like a team chaplain. Play Glenn Miller during BP. Anything to jazz things up, no pun intended. |
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Post by marshall on May 10, 2018 6:21:58 GMT -6
I think it's Tall's Curse because they removed his hill.
We have certainly come a long way from the offensive display of 2000 when people were wondering if hitting was too easy there.
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Post by marshall on May 10, 2018 6:26:38 GMT -6
I'm not sure if the problem has to do with their daily routine, the food in the clubhouse, family issues/demands (while in Houston), spiritual stuff (did the Dodgers hire a voodoo witch to put a hex on MMP? ). Whatever it is, they need to change things up. Maybe they can invite all the wives, kids, and girlfriends for brunch at MMP. Change up the catering. Have a minister come in and pray over the ballpark. Kind of like a team chaplain. Play Glenn Miller during BP. Anything to jazz things up, no pun intended. I wonder if having the roof open so often has been part of the change as well. |
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Post by bearbryant on May 10, 2018 16:43:21 GMT -6
In spite of the Astros only hitting .227 at home, they are holding opposing teams to a .212 batting avg at MMP, which I'm guessing must make MMP the lowest-scoring ballpark in MLB this season.  |
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Post by astrosdoug on May 10, 2018 18:35:36 GMT -6
Here is a link I found today which shows some handy information about scoring per team by season and over the most recent 3 games. www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/runs-per-gameThe Astros have scored an avg of 4.87 runs per game this season, compared to 5.41 runs in 2017. If the offense heats up, it could match or surpass last year's mark. The 4.87 runs/G is 8th in MLB. Currently the Astros score, on average, 2 runs per game more in away games than in home games, An oddity is that all 5 AL West teams have scored better on the road than at home. Only Boston has a bigger discrepancy between Home & Road scoring levels, but Boston's issue is that they struggle to score on the road whereas at home they've been doing great. |
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Post by astrosdoug on May 10, 2018 18:42:30 GMT -6
If I read this correctly, it looks like MMP (compared to other ballparks) is relatively difficult to get a hit or draw a walk in, but relatively easy to get a HR in. The net effect is still that a team is likely to score only about 90% of its normal run total when playing in MMP. www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactorIt looks like last year, MMP was one of the most difficult, if not *the* most difficult, park to score in. Of course, that might have more to do with the home team's pitching staff than with the dimensions of the park itself. www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2017 |
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2018 2:21:57 GMT -6
Another thing with these Astros is the pitching is phenomenal. It's hard to grind out a full season trying to stay on top of every AB. Winning a ring brings down that hunger a bit but also knowing you have a pitcher that can shut out the other team can bring down the motivation to prepare for each at bat. I feel strongly that the Astros are in the midst of turning the corner after sliding to 3rd recently and will finish this month off on a tear.
I feel bad for the Rangers this series as you will see World Series Astros and not complacent Astros.
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Post by unionstation82 on May 11, 2018 9:24:02 GMT -6
Let’s hope you’re right.
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Post by paastrosfan on May 11, 2018 11:52:54 GMT -6
It might be time to revisit this discussion. I have always said that good things can happen when you put the ball in play. When you strike out..., not so much. The Astros batters struck out the least number of times of any team in baseball in 2017. So far this season they have the ninth most. Astros batters averaged striking out fewer tha 7 times per game in 2017. So far this season they are averaging just shy of 9 strike outs per game and they are getting worse.., not better. Astros batters averaged 8.67 strikeouts per game in April and are averaging an even 9 strikeouts per game so far in May. The Astros are 1-5 in May. Over the last 7 days Marwin has struck out 9 times in 19 at-bats and is batting .211 (4-19) yet he continues to be in the starting lineup every day. Gattis has stuck out 5 times in 10 at-bats...has not had a hit in the last 7 days...and has struck out 29 times in 86 at-bats for the season. He is getting worse...not better... yet he remains on the ML roster. Fisher has struck out 4 times in 7 at-bats in the last 7 days and 28 times in 56 at-bats for the season yet he remains on the ML roster. Jake has been bad... 36 strikeouts in 72 at-bats for the season..., but at least he has shown improvement over the last 7 days with 2 strikeout in 9 at-bats. It is time for some roster moves. Either Jake or Fisher has got to go. Neither guy is anything more than a 4th outfielder/late inning defensive replacement/pinch runner. It makes no sense to have them both on the ML roster. Fisher may get better with experience, but he needs to be getting playing time. He doesn’t need to be sitting on the bench. He should be sent to AAA where he can start and play every game. Jake should not start a game. He should be used only as a late inning replacement/pinch runner. Marwin should not be starting every game. He played way above his head last season and I appreciate what he did for the team, but this is 2018.., not 2017. Marwin should be moved out of the everyday starting lineup and into the utility/replacement player role he is suited for. Gattis has got to go...one way or the other. He has zero value with the glove. He only has value if he is hitting and he hasn’t been hitting in a long time. If he has an option left, send him down. If he refuses to go to the minors, let him walk. If some team claims him off waivers, let them have him. This is his last season with the Astros anyway. What more could the team ask of JD Davis than what he is doing at AAA. Call him up to replace Gattis on the roster. Play him at first base and let Yuli DH. Play him in LF. Whatever. He has nothing left to prove in the minors and is being wasted there. Don’t like Davis? Call up Tyler White to replace Gattis. He is batting .342 over his last 10 games and .327 for the season. He has walked more time (22) than he has struck out (15) in 110 at-bats this season. Call up Tony Kemp to replace Fisher on the roster. Stick him in left field. Start him and let him play every day. He has never been given the opportunity to have regular playing time at the major league level. He has nothing left to prove in the minors. He is currently on a 12 game hitting streak in which he is 17-50, BA .340. He has struck out 6 times in those 50 at-bats. He is batting .336 for the season with 15 strikeouts in 119 at-bats. He has stolen 12 bases in 13 attempts. He has at least one hit in 25 of 29 games played this year. It is time to do something to shake things up on the Astros. The current roster of position players is not getting the job done and has looked even worse in May than they did in April. No doubt the Stros used the formula of the 2015 KC Royals last season of making contact and putting the ball in play, if anything having productive outs of moving runners. |
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Post by paastrosfan on May 11, 2018 11:54:18 GMT -6
In spite of the Astros only hitting .227 at home, they are holding opposing teams to a .212 batting avg at MMP, which I'm guessing must make MMP the lowest-scoring ballpark in MLB this season. If that continues a few months longer, it might make some people start to wonder whether there is something about the visual background that batters see (the batter's eye, restaurants, signage, lights) that is making it a hard park to hit in. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the Stros did start off slow last season at home. As for the background with the hill gone and the setup now, you would think it is better for the hitter. |
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Post by Saint on May 11, 2018 11:58:07 GMT -6
I still can't believe our worst production, of all places, is from LF and the DH.
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Post by astrosdoug on May 11, 2018 12:07:51 GMT -6
In spite of the Astros only hitting .227 at home, they are holding opposing teams to a .212 batting avg at MMP, which I'm guessing must make MMP the lowest-scoring ballpark in MLB this season. If that continues a few months longer, it might make some people start to wonder whether there is something about the visual background that batters see (the batter's eye, restaurants, signage, lights) that is making it a hard park to hit in. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the Stros did start off slow last season at home. As for the background with the hill gone and the setup now, you would think it is better for the hitter. The Astros hit .272 in the month of April 2017, but I'm not sure of the breakdown between road and home. The Astros' worst month offensively last year was August, when they hit .254. |
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Post by paastrosfan on May 11, 2018 12:16:25 GMT -6
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the Stros did start off slow last season at home. As for the background with the hill gone and the setup now, you would think it is better for the hitter. The Astros hit .272 in the month of April 2017, but I'm not sure of the breakdown between road and home. The Astros' worst month offensively last year was August, when they hit .254. I know that would be a look up on the break down, but remember the offense carried the team at the beginning of the year. |
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Post by paastrosfan on May 11, 2018 12:23:46 GMT -6
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the Stros did start off slow last season at home. As for the background with the hill gone and the setup now, you would think it is better for the hitter. The Astros hit .272 in the month of April 2017, but I'm not sure of the breakdown between road and home. The Astros' worst month offensively last year was August, when they hit .254. I tried to find the break down of home and away team stats but no luck. |
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Post by unionstation82 on May 12, 2018 3:52:47 GMT -6
It’s been more than a month of seeing the offense pummel bad pitching and flail at decent pitching. This is starting to look like a trend. I know they’ll eventually snap out of it, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Luhnow needs to get the offense some help.
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Post by astrosdoug on May 14, 2018 0:24:05 GMT -6
One of the things Statcast tracks is expected weighted On Base Average (xwOBA) versus actual weighted On Base Average (wOBA). The xwOBA is calculated based on the exit velocity and launch angle, irrespective of what the results of the hitter's batted ball events actually were. This should in theory tell us which hitters have been swinging the bat well but have just been unlucky victims of excellent defense, and which guys may have a high BA but only as the result of unrepeatable luck (weakly hit ground balls that make it through the infield, bloop singles that fall in between 3 fielders...).
According to this metric, here are the Astros' unluckiest (yet solid) hitters whom we should expect to have a breakout soon:
1. Alex Bregman (39-point discrepancy between xwOBA and wOBA)
2. George Springer (30 point discrepancy)
3. Jose Altuve (18 points)
4. Derek Fisher (16 points)
On the other hand, some hitters who appear to have benefited from luck and thus have deceptively inflated batting averages include:
1. Max Stassi (38 points negative discrepancy)
2. Brian McCann (12 points)
The basic thing to take away from this is that Bregman and Springer are due to start hitting better than we have seen them hitting so far this year, while Stassi and McCann are likely to come down to Earth.
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Post by Saint on May 14, 2018 8:28:45 GMT -6
One of the things Statcast tracks is expected weighted On Base Average (xwOBA) versus actual weighted On Base Average (wOBA). The xwOBA is calculated based on the exit velocity and launch angle, irrespective of what the results of the hitter's batted ball events actually were. This should in theory tell us which hitters have been swinging the bat well but have just been unlucky victims of excellent defense, and which guys may have a high BA but only as the result of unrepeatable luck (weakly hit ground balls that make it through the infield, bloop singles that fall in between 3 fielders...). According to this metric, here are the Astros' unluckiest (yet solid) hitters whom we should expect to have a breakout soon: 1. Alex Bregman (39-point discrepancy between xwOBA and wOBA) 2. George Springer (30 point discrepancy) 3. Jose Altuve (18 points) 4. Derek Fisher (16 points) On the other hand, some hitters who appear to have benefited from luck and thus have deceptively inflated batting averages include: 1. Max Stassi (38 points negative discrepancy) 2. Brian McCann (12 points) The basic thing to take away from this is that Bregman and Springer are due to start hitting better than we have seen them hitting so far this year, while Stassi and McCann are likely to come down to Earth. If those four improved and the other two decline some, I think we'd all consider that a win overall. If those four improved and the other two decline some, I think we'd all consider that a win overall. Nobody expects Stassi to maintain an .850+ OPS. But a .750+ seems plausible. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jun 1, 2018 1:42:19 GMT -6
Now that May is over, we can start to compare what changed for the Astros offense over the first two months of the season.
Basically, walks were down (from 4.0 per game to 2.7 per game) while strikeouts also went down (from 8.7 per game to 8.2 per game). This, of course, dampened OBP, but because the Astros did a slightly better job of hitting (.258 in May vs. .255 in April), the net effect on OPS was negligible:
April OPS - .746
May OPS - .745
Considering the level of pitching faced in May was better than in April, we might expect that June is going to be a relative offensive bonanza; we might see OPS around .800 for the coming month.
I'm guessing the walks were down as Hinch noticed how the overly-patient approach in April was causing way too many looking K's. Sending Fisher and Jake to the minors also helped suppress the K's in May, as did Gattis's turnaround, which admittedly I didn't see coming.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jun 1, 2018 2:34:18 GMT -6
On the pitching side, the story has been that the starting rotation has been very consistent over the course of the season: .592 OPS against in April, followed by .588 in May.
The bullpen didn't exactly melt down, but it was noticeably worse in May: OPS against went from .611 to .660, and ERA from 2.76 to 3.33. Compared to other teams in the league, those May numbers are still great... some teams' bullpens have been putting up ERAs in the 5's or 6's.
One positive about the May bullpen was that it recorded a K/BB ratio of 5.06, up from 4.09 in April.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jun 1, 2018 2:38:09 GMT -6
A few random notes on Astros hitting so far --
1) Only 3 hitters hit the ball harder in May than they did in April: Bregman, Altuve, and Stassi.
Gattis remained unchanged at 87,5 mph average exit velo in spite of much better results. All other hitters made noticeably softer contact in May, especially Springer, Yuli, Marwin, and Jake. Correa, who some of us have suspected of possibly having a lingering injury, had his exit velo drop from 89.6 mph to 88.6 mph. Might not be a sign of anything in particular, or it might be a sign of something. We an monitor this game to game.
2) By xwOBA (sabermetrics' current standard for forecasting future hitting), the predicted offensive leaders for June will be:
Bregman - xwOBA .426
Gattis - .395
Altuve - .390
Kemp - .372
and the June stragglers will be
Jake - .201
Yuli - .275
Marwin - .278
Correa ends up in the middle somewhere, around .313. If this comes to pass, we're looking at a significant disappointment from a purported MVP candidate.
Stassi also ends up in the middle of the pack, simply due to his unsustainable .467 BABIP in May. That's no fault of his... just the way the ball bounced.
3) Opposing pitchers' approaches.
One thing that jumped out at me was how opposing pitchers have been pumping an awful lot of fastballs at Kemp and Stassi relative to other hitters. Kemp has only seen 31.6% offspeed pitches and Stassi, 39.4%. That compares to the team average of seeing around 45% offspeed stuff. What that tells me is that opposing pitchers have been taking Kemp and Stassi rather lightly, thinking they can blow them away with FBs, which of course they have not done (just look at how Stassi doubled off of Chapman at 102mph or whatever). As time goes on, pitchers will respect/fear these hitters more and start throwing more offspeed, which may present some challenges to Kemp and Stassi.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jun 1, 2018 2:56:34 GMT -6
When we look at the Expected June Problem Trio of Jake/Yuli/Marwin, the following are some ways to minimize their potential negative impact on offense:
1. Jake is used as a late-inning defensive replacement only and bunts with less than 2 outs. Reddick's return should help decrease the need to use Jake but with the Mystery Knee Infection, who knows when that will be. In the meantime, subbing Marwin for Jake does not help, but subbing Davis for Jake does. So let's do that. Fisher needs at least 50 PAs at Fresno IMO before Hinch considers putting him in the lineup. By July, Tucker should be ready as Super-Two will have passed.
2. Yuli should only start games vs. RHP. Tyler White should start games vs LHP and that can be done by placing Marwin on the DL followed by rehab games at Corpus Christi so he's nearby if needed. White playing infield frees up Davis for LF duty.
Those two changes alone probably increase Team OPS from .746 to around .760. Once Tucker and Reddick are up, the team can target .780.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jun 1, 2018 3:47:36 GMT -6
One interesting stat that baseball-reference keeps is called AIR, which measures the effect on offense of park and league conditions.
According to this stat, the Astros have played the teams and parks most favorable to pitchers at 92 AIR, whereas CLE, BOS, and TEX have had the most advantageous schedule for offense at 105 to 106 AIR. This is another reason I'd expect the June team OPS to climb 20 or 30 points from April/May levels.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jun 1, 2018 9:46:56 GMT -6
When I saw Cleveland coming back to win the other day, I noticed definite differences between the ‘17 and ‘18 Astros. The at-bats seem so much more impatient this season. In that game, Cleveland battled and made sure they had pitches to handle, and they did it over and over again in the 9th inning until they tied the game. In both blown saves against the Yankees (and the Giles Punch game), they took a page out of the Astros’ playbook as well with the patience, fouling close pitches, and getting something good to hit.
The Astros of this season are taking or missing on a lot of hittable pitches and definitely look more anxious at the plate. Bregman is like Altuve, Correa, Springer, Marwin, etc. in that he does the same thing yet also has a great grasp of taking close pitches out of the zone.
They all really need to adjust their approaches on offense and play the fouloff game that teams have recently been killing them with this season. That game leads to hittable pitches that they need to start crushing.
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). Whatever it is, they need to change things up. Maybe they can invite all the wives, kids, and girlfriends for brunch at MMP. Change up the catering. Have a minister come in and pray over the ballpark. Kind of like a team chaplain. Play Glenn Miller during BP. Anything to jazz things up, no pun intended.
