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Post by Saint on Jun 23, 2021 13:10:58 GMT -6
When the season started, no one was on board with signing Correa for 8 years. There appears to be some softening there I have softened for sure. edit: Although in my defense, I did want to keep him all along. I just didn't want to go to $300 million when we could use that to fill multiple areas. The starting pitching being better than expected, and both Straw and Chas being solid have made it easier to swallow a potential big contract to Correa. I feel like we have less holes to fill. |
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Post by bearbryant on Jun 23, 2021 13:24:47 GMT -6
When the season started, no one was on board with signing Correa for 8 years. There appears to be some softening there I have softened for sure. edit: Although in my defense, I did want to keep him all along. I just didn't want to go to $300 million when we could use that to fill multiple areas. The starting pitching being better than expected, and both Straw and Chas being solid have made it easier to swallow a potential big contract to Correa. I feel like we have less holes to fill. It comes down to paying for career years that haven't happened yet. One of them looks like it's happening this year. The question is will the next 8-9 be more like 2021 or 2019 on the whole
Personally I think it's irrelevant. I don't think this front office does 8-year deals. Click comes from the Rays and Longoria is the only comparable player I can remember getting as much 6 years from Tampa Bay in free agency
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Post by abregmanfan on Jun 23, 2021 13:32:13 GMT -6
My true thoughts on Correa...Damned if we do, damned if we don't...
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Post by Saint on Jun 23, 2021 13:38:44 GMT -6
I have softened for sure. edit: Although in my defense, I did want to keep him all along. I just didn't want to go to $300 million when we could use that to fill multiple areas. The starting pitching being better than expected, and both Straw and Chas being solid have made it easier to swallow a potential big contract to Correa. I feel like we have less holes to fill. It comes down to paying for career years that haven't happened yet. One of them looks like it's happening this year. The question is will the next 8-9 be more like 2021 or 2019 on the whole
Personally I think it's irrelevant. I don't think this front office does 8-year deals. Click comes from the Rays and Longoria is the only comparable player I can remember getting as much 6 years from Tampa Bay in free agency
I basically agree, but I think we have a bit of a "Crane Factor" in that he likes to make headlines now and then. |
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Post by Saint on Jun 23, 2021 13:39:00 GMT -6
My true thoughts on Correa...Damned if we do, damned if we don't... That's probably the absolute best way to put it. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jun 23, 2021 13:58:34 GMT -6
When the season started, no one was on board with signing Correa for 8 years. There appears to be some softening there Of course, he’s showing that he could repeat his 2020 Postseason in the regular season. Meanwhile, Bregman has fallen back to 2017 above average but not elite levels. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jun 23, 2021 13:59:13 GMT -6
My true thoughts on Correa...Damned if we do, damned if we don't... That’s probably the best summation. |
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talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
Posts: 2,015
Likes: 1,114
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Post by talshill on Jun 23, 2021 14:35:07 GMT -6
Well that really wasn’t directed so much at you as it was the notion that Correa needed some big contract to support his family. These guys make insane amounts of money. It’s silly for anyone to say that any of these ball players are “worth” $30 million a year. None of them are. I grew up poor. My dad was a hard worker but only had a ninth grade education. Because he realized the value of an education that he didn’t have he was insistent that his kids be educated AND work hard. Today four of his five kids are wealthy. It may seem counterintuitive, but having and maintaining wealth requires a discipline most people don’t have. I had to learn it. The point being that if these guys go broke after earning the money they do I find it difficult to feel sympathetic. What happened to the 5th kid? My sister married a lazy philanderer from a wealthy family. She cut him loose after 30+ years for his repeated inability to keep his zipper closed. Soon afterward he put a pistol in his mouth. He died before he inherited anything. But hey, her kids have money. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jun 23, 2021 15:15:57 GMT -6
My true thoughts on Correa...Damned if we do, damned if we don't... since we may not need to spend money to sign a free agent starting pitcher, I'd do a long-term deal for Correa. With the money we have coming off the books, we can sign Carlos and add bullpen help and an outfielder. |
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Post by bearbryant on Jun 23, 2021 16:02:05 GMT -6
It comes down to paying for career years that haven't happened yet. One of them looks like it's happening this year. The question is will the next 8-9 be more like 2021 or 2019 on the whole
Personally I think it's irrelevant. I don't think this front office does 8-year deals. Click comes from the Rays and Longoria is the only comparable player I can remember getting as much 6 years from Tampa Bay in free agency
I basically agree, but I think we have a bit of a "Crane Factor" in that he likes to make headlines now and then. |
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Post by bearbryant on Jun 23, 2021 16:11:42 GMT -6
This is the fourth or fifth time that I can remember Bregman going down for a muscle pull. Since last year, he has been sidelined three times including twice this season. He first pulled a hamstring back in the Hinch Era. This is a thing now with Bregman, and the healthy past doesn’t change that fact. So, for people to bring up that Correa shouldn’t get paid for his injuries while Bregman already is getting paid, their argument runs hollow. Funny how people keep harping on Correa's injuries ...... |
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Post by paastrosfan on Jun 23, 2021 16:19:29 GMT -6
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jun 23, 2021 16:28:55 GMT -6
Hey look, y'all. The Yankees fan is posting. |
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Post by abregmanfan on Jun 23, 2021 16:48:35 GMT -6
Hey look, y'all. The Yankees fan is posting. Be nice, frog. |
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Post by paastrosfan on Jun 23, 2021 17:11:44 GMT -6
Hey look, y'all. The Yankees fan is posting. You're just jealous Son that you could never get Linda in such a compromising position. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Jun 23, 2021 17:30:18 GMT -6
When the season started, no one was on board with signing Correa for 8 years. There appears to be some softening there I have softened for sure. edit: Although in my defense, I did want to keep him all along. I just didn't want to go to $300 million when we could use that to fill multiple areas. The starting pitching being better than expected, and both Straw and Chas being solid have made it easier to swallow a potential big contract to Correa. I feel like we have less holes to fill. TNWSS |
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Post by m240 on Jun 23, 2021 17:39:33 GMT -6
I think we can all agree that Correa is playing his best ball right now. So look back and see what the value of his first 6 years would be by using war values. The value of each point in war is 8 million. of the big money deals which ones look really bad now. Trout, no the Angels still do that deal Let's take a look at the deal for the greatest player in baseball today and apply some of your math. 2012 through 2019, Mike averaged 9.0 WAR per year. Given your $8MM per WAR number, that means he is 'worth' $72 million per year. But he's only being paid $37,116,667 per year. How did the Angels get him to sign so cheap?!Maybe both Mike and the Angels recognize that long-term security has strong value to the player (and presents a potential liability to the team)? So if Carlos is 'worth' $35MM per year, perhaps the Astros should offer that much ... for two or three years of obligation. He wants ten years of financial security? Maybe the per-year salary should decrease considerably. Say ... $18 million per year? The 8 million per war is not my number but it is fangraphs number and one that I have seen used quite frequently. As far as getting him to sign, I am pretty sure the rest of the year will have a big impact on that. My point is that to replace him at the current level of performance it would take the 35 million plus. Also as a businessman and knowing our governments ability to spend way too much money and the inflation that will surely rise from said spending long term deals are not as bad when factoring in the inflation adjustment for the present value of a dollar. |
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Post by Saint on Jun 23, 2021 17:54:09 GMT -6
If that's really how Stanton is getting hurt it's hard to blame him ....
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Post by abregmanfan on Jun 23, 2021 18:48:43 GMT -6
If that's really how Stanton is getting hurt it's hard to blame him .... That ain't no bull! |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jun 23, 2021 19:32:32 GMT -6
If that's really how Stanton is getting hurt it's hard to blame him .... What a hard life. |
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Post by abregmanfan on Jun 23, 2021 20:23:12 GMT -6
If that's really how Stanton is getting hurt it's hard to blame him .... What a hard life. TWSS. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jun 23, 2021 22:44:28 GMT -6
Funny how people keep harping on Correa's injuries ...... She was the masseuse who cracked his rib. I don't know about the trapeze. That could be one of the few places he didn't get massaged. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jun 23, 2021 22:46:28 GMT -6
If that's really how Stanton is getting hurt it's hard to blame him .... The Yankees will end up paying this steroid junkie as long as the Mets have to pay Bobby Bonilla. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jun 24, 2021 9:00:49 GMT -6
The 8 million per war is not my number but it is fangraphs number and one that I have seen used quite frequently. Fair enough. I used the same number for both players, so it isn't a problem either way. My point is that to replace him at the current level of performance it would take the 35 million plus. And my counter-points are: Pay him that much or even more, if you're desperate ... but only for a few years. Thumb your noses at the tax threshold and pay the taxes for a couple of years. Much better than the risk of having a long-term contract go bad. Pay for your 'now', now rather than handcuffing your future for your 'now'. Long contracts provide huge security for the player and huge risk to the team. If a player wants the 'insurance' let him pay the 'premiums' in the form of a lower salary per year. Full no-trade clauses are a scam. In most cases, the player will be glad to be traded when the team is no longer a contender. He'll waive the no-trade if you give him more $$$ at the time of the trade. I understand there are some places a player may not want to go under any circumstances. For instance, a pitcher almost certainly won't want to be traded to the Rockies. Or he might have an aversion to a certain teams. It's right and proper to respect that. Allow him a list of 4-6 teams on his no-trade list. |
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Post by m240 on Jun 24, 2021 15:55:12 GMT -6
The 8 million per war is not my number but it is fangraphs number and one that I have seen used quite frequently. Fair enough. I used the same number for both players, so it isn't a problem either way. My point is that to replace him at the current level of performance it would take the 35 million plus. And my counter-points are: Pay him that much or even more, if you're desperate ... but only for a few years. Thumb your noses at the tax threshold and pay the taxes for a couple of years. Much better than the risk of having a long-term contract go bad. Pay for your 'now', now rather than handcuffing your future for your 'now'. Long contracts provide huge security for the player and huge risk to the team. If a player wants the 'insurance' let him pay the 'premiums' in the form of a lower salary per year. Full no-trade clauses are a scam. In most cases, the player will be glad to be traded when the team is no longer a contender. He'll waive the no-trade if you give him more $$$ at the time of the trade. I understand there are some places a player may not want to go under any circumstances. For instance, a pitcher almost certainly won't want to be traded to the Rockies. Or he might have an aversion to a certain teams. It's right and proper to respect that. Allow him a list of 4-6 teams on his no-trade list. No one said anything about a full no trade, what I said was to match the deal that lindor got with the Mets which was a limited no trade and lots of deferred money. Now in your scenario of paying 40 million per year and limiting it to a three year deal well you can accomplish the same type of deal with the correct structuring insurance, and bonuses in a ten year deal that he will actually sign. Same 120 million of guaranteed money coming from Crane and the rest from the insurance company or whoever we trade him for. Talking about only doing a strict 3 year deal disregarding the money is pointless. Correa will not sign anything less than what Lindor got, so we can either figure out how to limit the exposure or just say good bye. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jun 25, 2021 9:33:00 GMT -6
No one said anything about a full no trade, what I said was to match the deal that lindor got with the Mets which was a limited no trade and lots of deferred money. True, Lindor has some limits on his no-trade, but there are more teams on his no-trade list than teams he can be traded to. And IF there is a team not on his list, AND they're reckless with money, AND they're in need of a shortstop, the Mets better seek them out during the first four years of his contract. Else they're stuck with him for the SIX years after that. He can NOT be traded during his last six years unless he approves it. An optimist might like to think that given the same limits on his no-trade list, Correa would waste them on teams like the Mets (who already have a shortstop with an absurd contract), the Rays and A's, and teams like the Orioles, who surely learned their lesson with the Chris Davis deal. But I doubt it. As for which teams Lindor has on his list, I don't have access to that. Do you? Now in your scenario of paying 40 million per year and limiting it to a three year deal well you can accomplish the same type of deal with the correct structuring insurance, and bonuses in a ten year deal that he will actually sign. Lol, when I said 'insurance' I meant the guaranteed money that the team would have to pay him, regardless of health and performance. Would the Astros buy insurance on the contract? How much would THAT cost on top of the $350 million you want to give Carlos?I'd have no problem with bonuses like the Mets are giving Lindor. Those are modest, almost token amounts and don't affect the threshold calculations until he might earn them. The AAV of the guaranteed money IS factored in. And you don't get a break on that by defferring payments. Same 120 million of guaranteed money coming from Crane and the rest from the insurance company or whoever we trade him for. whatisthisidonteven. Talking about only doing a strict 3 year deal disregarding the money is pointless. Correa will not sign anything less than what Lindor got, so we can either figure out how to limit the exposure or just say good bye. There will be f our notable shortstops available, this winter. Carlos, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, and Javier Báez. If a sensible deal with Carlos can't be made before he reaches FA, throw a QO at his ass, and leave the door open for negotiation. Also, invite the agents for those other three players to make a case for their guy. There might be a team with deep pockets but they'll also need to be as reckless at the Mets were, for Carlos to get that kind of deal. I hope that's not the Astros, but it very well could be. I reckon we'll see how this all shakes down this winter, eh? |
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talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
Posts: 2,015
Likes: 1,114
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Post by talshill on Jun 25, 2021 15:24:40 GMT -6
"Would the Astros buy insurance on the contract?"
You betcha. As far as I know, teams insure all big-money contracts going back for several years. They filed a claim on Bagwell in in '06 when it was obvious he couldn't play anymore.
As for Correa, the choice is between his potential vs. his actual production and he's fallen far short of his potential. In order to pay him Lindor-type money (NY state has around an 11% personal income tax) the Astros could offer Correa around $300 million and it would be equivalent to Lindor's (since TX has no personal income tax). Conversely, it would make the $150 million contract they offered Correa worth around $167 million in NY state dollars.
I think the answer is somewhere in between. Probably 8/240, especially if they add games-played bonuses, would get it done. He'd still be young enough to get another contract, but it probably wouldn't be for big money.
EDIT: I don't see Click investing a quarter of a billion dollars in anyone, especially an injury-prone player who hasn't reached his potential. Those long-term, big-money deals almost never pay off.
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jun 25, 2021 16:28:12 GMT -6
"Would the Astros buy insurance on the contract?" You betcha. As far as I know, teams insure all big-money contracts going back for several years. They filed a claim on Bagwell in in '06 when it was obvious he couldn't play anymore. Hey talshill, the reason I asked that question (and particularly the one in bold) is because big-money contracts have become prohibitively expensive. I don't know whether it wasn't possible for the Rangers to insure the full amount of the Prince Fielder contract or if the price goes up exponentially as the coverage percentage increases. The Rangers obviously got no compensation for the three years Fielder played poorly for them. But during the last four years of his contract, he was unable to play at all. That's when insurance kicked in. The Tigers were paying $6MM per year of his $24MM annually salary. The Rangers were paying $18MM per year. Insurance only covered half that. So the Rangers were still paying $9MM per year and the insurance was covering a like amount. |
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Post by m240 on Jun 25, 2021 16:43:24 GMT -6
No one said anything about a full no trade, what I said was to match the deal that lindor got with the Mets which was a limited no trade and lots of deferred money. True, Lindor has some limits on his no-trade, but there are more teams on his no-trade list than teams he can be traded to. And IF there is a team not on his list, AND they're reckless with money, AND they're in need of a shortstop, the Mets better seek them out during the first four years of his contract. Else they're stuck with him for the SIX years after that. He can NOT be traded during his last six years unless he approves it. An optimist might like to think that given the same limits on his no-trade list, Correa would waste them on teams like the Mets (who already have a shortstop with an absurd contract), the Rays and A's, and teams like the Orioles, who surely learned their lesson with the Chris Davis deal. But I doubt it. As for which teams Lindor has on his list, I don't have access to that. Do you? Now in your scenario of paying 40 million per year and limiting it to a three year deal well you can accomplish the same type of deal with the correct structuring insurance, and bonuses in a ten year deal that he will actually sign. Lol, when I said 'insurance' I meant the guaranteed money that the team would have to pay him, regardless of health and performance. Would the Astros buy insurance on the contract? How much would THAT cost on top of the $350 million you want to give Carlos?I'd have no problem with bonuses like the Mets are giving Lindor. Those are modest, almost token amounts and don't affect the threshold calculations until he might earn them. The AAV of the guaranteed money IS factored in. And you don't get a break on that by defferring payments. Same 120 million of guaranteed money coming from Crane and the rest from the insurance company or whoever we trade him for. whatisthisidonteven. Talking about only doing a strict 3 year deal disregarding the money is pointless. Correa will not sign anything less than what Lindor got, so we can either figure out how to limit the exposure or just say good bye. There will be f our notable shortstops available, this winter. Carlos, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, and Javier Báez. If a sensible deal with Carlos can't be made before he reaches FA, throw a QO at his ass, and leave the door open for negotiation. Also, invite the agents for those other three players to make a case for their guy. There might be a team with deep pockets but they'll also need to be as reckless at the Mets were, for Carlos to get that kind of deal. I hope that's not the Astros, but it very well could be. I reckon we'll see how this all shakes down this winter, eh? It is sop to insure big contracts. Houston has a three year window where they can carry a big contract along with the ones currently in place. After that the cheap rotation most likely becomes expensive. Earlier in the thread I had said that if Correa keeps performing he will be easy to trade at that point like Miami did with Stanton. If injuries derail his performance then the insurance would pay his salary so no loss in money but still a cap hit. The insurance is expensive but does not figure into the cap hit. big contracts are always big gambles and if you never make any you send a message to your fan base and the players as well. Teams gamble on big contracts all the time just like Verlander and Grienke’s deals. When you dump them it hurts, if a guy plays it all the way out he becomes the exception and a franchise icon most likely. Cranes question that he has to answer does he want Correa and Altuve to be the face of this Astros period. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jun 25, 2021 16:56:37 GMT -6
EDIT: I don't see Click investing a quarter of a billion dollars in anyone, especially an injury-prone player who hasn't reached his potential. Those long-term, big-money deals almost never pay off. I agree. But I reckon we'll find out for sure this winter, eh? |
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