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Post by m240 on Jun 21, 2021 7:30:06 GMT -6
If you go back in time and look at how some of the old mega deals were structured, as well as the Francisco Lindor deal, then you could actually make a case for doing a 10 year 350 million dollar deal with Correa. Here is what I mean;
In the Lindor deal he got 341 million for 10 years. It pays out though in 20 years. Money is earned and deferred. By doing this owners pay out in inflation reduced dollars. So in 10 years each dollar is worth 73.74 cents if you think inflation will run at about 3% over the 10years. So 35 million is actually worth 25,809,000 in today’s dollars. A substantial sum no doubt but it does get even lower, 50 million of Lindor’s money is deferred out to 20 years. Those last 5 million would actually have a net present value of “only” 2.7 million.
these deals also come with limited no trade deals for, in Lindor’s case 5 years. So if Houston wants to dump Correa’s deal in 5 years cuz they start to suck, then they have that option. Given this new/old revelation then I have no trouble with giving Correa a deal that marginally exceeds Lindor’s and structured in a similar fashion.
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Post by Saint on Jun 21, 2021 8:18:23 GMT -6
My only concern is how much of this great season (and health) is because of a contract year?
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Post by thomasj13 on Jun 21, 2021 8:31:11 GMT -6
My only concern is how much of this great season (and health) is because of a contract year? Realistically, probably a pretty good percentage of what you're seeing now. If it could be guaranteed this is what you get for the next 10 years, then by all means sign him. But even the most die-hard Carlos' fans know better. If Astros are going to offer him money. I would do something different 3 years/120M....Yes Carlos, it is not 10 years like Lindor, but it is a higher AAV...and after your contract is up, and if you're still producing someone might offer you a better deal than that, so your deal is better than Lindor's. I think around this time, both Altuve's and Bregman's contracts are expiring...So it would really allow the Astros to think what they want to do from that point. |
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Post by Saint on Jun 21, 2021 9:01:46 GMT -6
My only concern is how much of this great season (and health) is because of a contract year? Realistically, probably a pretty good percentage of what you're seeing now. If it could be guaranteed this is what you get for the next 10 years, then by all means sign him. But even the most die-hard Carlos' fans know better. If Astros are going to offer him money. I would do something different 3 years/120M....Yes Carlos, it is not 10 years like Lindor, but it is a higher AAV...and after your contract is up, and if you're still producing someone might offer you a better deal than that, so your deal is better than Lindor's. I think around this time, both Altuve's and Bregman's contracts are expiring...So it would really allow the Astros to think what they want to do from that point. I'd be all for it, but he won't go for it. He'll want more guaranteed money even if it is lower AAV. |
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Post by m240 on Jun 21, 2021 9:05:22 GMT -6
I think we can all agree that Correa is playing his best ball right now. So look back and see what the value of his first 6 years would be by using war values. The value of each point in war is 8 million. If you exclude this year from the calculations and then calculate what you come up with is 35.733 million per year. We would all be disappointed if Correa did not exceed the last 6 years in the next 6 years. And that would be in today’s dollars and not the inflation adjusted dollars as time goes by.
Imagine how good our team would be with Correa at short and Leon in center. With Correa, Altuve, Bergman, Tucker, Leon, and Alvarez as our core lineup at less than 100mm. Also we have 5 starters on pre and 1st year arbitration deals, (minus McCullers), at a total of less than 30 million, we could extend this current run for at least 3 years and probably 5.
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talshill
Arbitration Eligible
Vini, vici, pavori.
Posts: 2,015
Likes: 1,114
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Post by talshill on Jun 21, 2021 14:28:49 GMT -6
The bad thing about Lindor's contract is that he's going to be counting against their cap long after he's done playing and is on a beach somewhere sipping mai tais. You'd think the Mets would have learned with Bonilla. The positives with Correa (when he's healthy) is that he's very talented both offensively and defensively, he wants to be an Astro, he's been a "clutch" player, he's a Houston icon and he was pretty much the face of the Astros player response after the scandal. The only real negative is that he's injury prone. I think it's 30/70 that he'll be worth a Lindor-type deal. But the guy is only 26 so an 8-10 year deal wouldn't necessarily scare me off.
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Post by Saint on Jun 21, 2021 14:52:12 GMT -6
I feel like an 8-year $250 million gets it done (with some incentives for awards). He breaks $30 million AAV, and we likely won't have to sit through his god awful 35+ year old seasons.
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Post by thomasj13 on Jun 21, 2021 16:13:06 GMT -6
I feel like an 8-year $250 million gets it done (with some incentives for awards). He breaks $30 million AAV, and we likely won't have to sit through his god awful 35+ year old seasons. How many seasons will he play that's less than 100 games |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jun 21, 2021 16:37:03 GMT -6
I feel like an 8-year $250 million gets it done (with some incentives for awards). He breaks $30 million AAV, and we likely won't have to sit through his god awful 35+ year old seasons. My position on this is if we don't give it to him somebody else will and we end up with a much lesser SS and hitter. If he keeps up his present pace, Crane is a damn fool not to give him enough to keep him. Look at what he is paying Bregman and Altuve. At the present, Carlos is worth every bit as much as either of them. We have money coming off the books for sure with Greinke's contract.....Verlander's status is up in the air. I think we can keep Verlander and we don't need Greinke with the other starters we have. Spend the money on Correa and bullpen help. |
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Post by Saint on Jun 21, 2021 17:24:42 GMT -6
I feel like an 8-year $250 million gets it done (with some incentives for awards). He breaks $30 million AAV, and we likely won't have to sit through his god awful 35+ year old seasons. How many seasons will he play that's less than 100 games 2 under and 2 close. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Jun 21, 2021 17:46:22 GMT -6
I feel like an 8-year $250 million gets it done (with some incentives for awards). He breaks $30 million AAV, and we likely won't have to sit through his god awful 35+ year old seasons. My position on this is if we don't give it to him somebody else will and we end up with a much lesser SS and hitter. If he keeps up his present pace, Crane is a damn fool not to give him enough to keep him. Look at what he is paying Bregman and Altuve. At the present, Carlos is worth every bit as much as either of them. We have money coming off the books for sure with Greinke's contract.....Verlander's status is up in the air. I think we can keep Verlander and we don't need Greinke with the other starters we have. Spend the money on Correa and bullpen help. Didn't we all agree earlier that Astros offering 5 year/$125M was a good deal for Carlos....I am pretty sure you were agreement. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jun 21, 2021 17:52:38 GMT -6
My position on this is if we don't give it to him somebody else will and we end up with a much lesser SS and hitter. If he keeps up his present pace, Crane is a damn fool not to give him enough to keep him. Look at what he is paying Bregman and Altuve. At the present, Carlos is worth every bit as much as either of them. We have money coming off the books for sure with Greinke's contract.....Verlander's status is up in the air. I think we can keep Verlander and we don't need Greinke with the other starters we have. Spend the money on Correa and bullpen help. Didn't we all agree earlier that Astros offering 5 year/$125M was a good deal for Carlos....I am pretty sure you were agreement. And wanted him run out of town when he was injured last time. |
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Post by paastrosfan on Jun 21, 2021 18:05:50 GMT -6
Didn't we all agree earlier that Astros offering 5 year/$125M was a good deal for Carlos....I am pretty sure you were agreement. And wanted him run out of town when he was injured last time. You know how it goes on here, it goes with the flow. |
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Post by Saint on Jun 21, 2021 19:23:42 GMT -6
My position on this is if we don't give it to him somebody else will and we end up with a much lesser SS and hitter. If he keeps up his present pace, Crane is a damn fool not to give him enough to keep him. Look at what he is paying Bregman and Altuve. At the present, Carlos is worth every bit as much as either of them. We have money coming off the books for sure with Greinke's contract.....Verlander's status is up in the air. I think we can keep Verlander and we don't need Greinke with the other starters we have. Spend the money on Correa and bullpen help. Didn't we all agree earlier that Astros offering 5 year/$125M was a good deal for Carlos....I am pretty sure you were agreement. Yeah I think most of us did. None of us thought he should be paid more than Springer got. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jun 21, 2021 20:57:11 GMT -6
My only concern is how much of this great season (and health) is because of a contract year? He kicked ass in the ‘20 Postseason too. |
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Post by m240 on Jun 22, 2021 10:59:46 GMT -6
My position on this is if we don't give it to him somebody else will and we end up with a much lesser SS and hitter. If he keeps up his present pace, Crane is a damn fool not to give him enough to keep him. Look at what he is paying Bregman and Altuve. At the present, Carlos is worth every bit as much as either of them. We have money coming off the books for sure with Greinke's contract.....Verlander's status is up in the air. I think we can keep Verlander and we don't need Greinke with the other starters we have. Spend the money on Correa and bullpen help. Didn't we all agree earlier that Astros offering 5 year/$125M was a good deal for Carlos....I am pretty sure you were agreement. things changed. Our starting pitching went from a potential weakness to a real low cost strength. I now think it makes more sense to try to keep the gang together as long as possible and now possible is longer given our inexpensive starting pitching. |
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Post by Saint on Jun 22, 2021 11:10:58 GMT -6
My only concern is how much of this great season (and health) is because of a contract year? He kicked ass in the ‘20 Postseason too. Yeah his postseason resume has never been in question. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jun 22, 2021 11:13:50 GMT -6
My position on this is if we don't give it to him somebody else will and we end up with a much lesser SS and hitter. If he keeps up his present pace, Crane is a damn fool not to give him enough to keep him. Look at what he is paying Bregman and Altuve. At the present, Carlos is worth every bit as much as either of them. We have money coming off the books for sure with Greinke's contract.....Verlander's status is up in the air. I think we can keep Verlander and we don't need Greinke with the other starters we have. Spend the money on Correa and bullpen help. Didn't we all agree earlier that Astros offering 5 year/$125M was a good deal for Carlos....I am pretty sure you were agreement. At the time, I agreed. I didn't expect to see what we are getting from him both offensively, defensively, and providing leadership. The bottom line is that neither the Astros nor any other team will get him on a 5year/$125 million dollar contract. The proposal of 8/$250 million should get the job done. We will have the money to give him that deal and still add needed arms in the pen and another outfielder. If we don't make a legitimate effort to keep him and he leaves, we will regret it in the long run. There is NO other SS who will be available...and that includes Baez, Seager, and Story.....who can give us what Correa can. Yeah, we can stick to our guns of 5/$125 million and say goodbye to the best SS we have ever had and settle for one not close to his caliber. I know he hasn't had a history of playing over 100 games a year, but, he is on a pace to do that and more. Nobody complained when Altuve and Bregman got their deals....Correa is certainly worth more than Bregman, who has been basically a no-show since 2019, and he is proving to be worth as much as Altuve, who everyone thinks is the straw that stirs the drink. We need Altuve and Bregman, but, we need Correa every bit as much. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jun 22, 2021 11:17:49 GMT -6
Didn't we all agree earlier that Astros offering 5 year/$125M was a good deal for Carlos....I am pretty sure you were agreement. things changed. Our starting pitching went from a potential weakness to a real low cost strength. I now think it makes more sense to try to keep the gang together as long as possible and now possible is longer given our inexpensive starting pitching. If we don't re-sign Correa, it will be one of the biggest blunders in the history of this organization. They jumped to throw a pile of cash at Altuve and Bregman. Correa is a better athlete than either of them. NO, I am not saying he is more important to the team, but, he is just as important. If we need to save money so bad, we can trade Bregman, move Correa to third base or sign another third baseman. Bregman is proving to be more injury prone than Carlos and his production has gone down drastically since 2019. |
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Post by Saint on Jun 22, 2021 11:27:11 GMT -6
I would just add that, while I believe Correa is becoming more valuable to us than he has showed in recent years, we can't forget his health concerns. I think we need to make a real effort to keep him, but in a year or two when he ends up on the IL for half a season, just remember this moment.
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Post by m240 on Jun 22, 2021 11:52:42 GMT -6
I would just add that, while I believe Correa is becoming more valuable to us than he has showed in recent years, we can't forget his health concerns. I think we need to make a real effort to keep him, but in a year or two when he ends up on the IL for half a season, just remember this moment. yeah it will suck but if you value his contract per war he will hit the average per year on a 35mm contract. At least for the first 5 years. I just want us to take advantage of this window of greatness that we have right now, all these cheap starters is extending the window. |
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Post by m240 on Jun 22, 2021 11:53:54 GMT -6
we can trade him to the Yankees in three years and stick them with the potentially bad years like Miami did with Stanton.
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jun 22, 2021 12:17:43 GMT -6
If we don't re-sign Correa, it will be one of the biggest blunders in the history of this organization. If they sign him to a ten year deal at $35MM per, it will be a FAR bigger blunder. They jumped to throw a pile of cash at Altuve and Bregman. Far smaller 'piles of cash'. Altuve is making $28MM per year. Bregman is making $30.5MM per year. NEITHER of these contracts were anything close to 10 years of the Astros being on the hook for large salaries. BOTH of these contracts end after the 2024 season. At some point, the Astros will need to rebuild. Given the current state of the farm system, it will probably be around the time Altuve and Bregman become free agents. JMO. Just because your friends jump off a bridge doesn't mean you should. Just because the Mets signed a contract that will certainly go upside-down in the later years, doesn't mean the Astros should. |
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Post by paastrosfan on Jun 22, 2021 13:05:51 GMT -6
If we don't re-sign Correa, it will be one of the biggest blunders in the history of this organization. If they sign him to a ten year deal at $35MM per, it will be a FAR bigger blunder. They jumped to throw a pile of cash at Altuve and Bregman. Far smaller 'piles of cash'. Altuve is making $28MM per year. Bregman is making $30.5MM per year. NEITHER of these contracts were anything close to 10 years of the Astros being on the hook for large salaries. BOTH of these contracts end after the 2024 season. At some point, the Astros will need to rebuild. Given the current state of the farm system, it will probably be around the time Altuve and Bregman become free agents. JMO. Just because your friends jump off a bridge doesn't mean you should. Just because the Mets signed a contract that will certainly go upside-down in the later years, doesn't mean the Astros should. Just take a look at the history of the long term deals thru MLB. How many have panned out for the team dealing the big bucks. Look at the Nat's Stephen Strasburg, like CC has a history of injury problems. He has a career year in 19, the Nat's win a WS and reward him with a big deal. Where has he been the last two years, the signing team has to own up to the big decision of sign or not. But then again, why would you blame a player for looking for life-time financial security for his family and himself. The only one smiling on most of these these deals is ole Scotty boy. I never heard the track record of CC's agent Jon Rosen, or the players under contract with him. |
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Post by m240 on Jun 22, 2021 16:06:09 GMT -6
If they sign him to a ten year deal at $35MM per, it will be a FAR bigger blunder. Far smaller 'piles of cash'. Altuve is making $28MM per year. Bregman is making $30.5MM per year. NEITHER of these contracts were anything close to 10 years of the Astros being on the hook for large salaries. BOTH of these contracts end after the 2024 season. At some point, the Astros will need to rebuild. Given the current state of the farm system, it will probably be around the time Altuve and Bregman become free agents. JMO. Just because your friends jump off a bridge doesn't mean you should. Just because the Mets signed a contract that will certainly go upside-down in the later years, doesn't mean the Astros should. Just take a look at the history of the long term deals thru MLB. How many have panned out for the team dealing the big bucks. Look at the Nat's Stephen Strasburg, like CC has a history of injury problems. He has a career year in 19, the Nat's win a WS and reward him with a big deal. Where has he been the last two years, the signing team has to own up to the big decision of sign or not. But then again, why would you blame a player for looking for life-time financial security for his family and himself. The only one smiling on most of these these deals is ole Scotty boy. I never heard the track record of CC's agent Jon Rosen, or the players under contract with him. So if not Correa for Lindor money who and for how much. We have to recapture the offense and defense that he brings to the table. How much does that cost. of the big money deals which ones look really bad now. Trout, no the Angels still do that deal Betts, no the Dodgers still do that deal, lindor, no I am sure the Mets still do that deal even though he is sucking this year, Tatis, no even though he has been hurt a lot this year the Padres still do that deal, Machado, Padres still do that deal kershaw, Dodgers still do that deal, Harper, the Phillies still do that deal, Stanton, the Yankees probably question that deal but he is still producing good numbers when he is on the field. the point is without Correa we are less than we are with him. Spending the same money in free agency does not guarantee us to get back to where we would be with him. Remember the farm is barren and the pickings will be slim for a while |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jun 22, 2021 16:25:49 GMT -6
Just take a look at the history of the long term deals thru MLB. How many have panned out for the team dealing the big bucks. Look at the Nat's Stephen Strasburg, like CC has a history of injury problems. He has a career year in 19, the Nat's win a WS and reward him with a big deal. Where has he been the last two years, the signing team has to own up to the big decision of sign or not. But then again, why would you blame a player for looking for life-time financial security for his family and himself. The only one smiling on most of these these deals is ole Scotty boy. I never heard the track record of CC's agent Jon Rosen, or the players under contract with him. So if not Correa for Lindor money who and for how much. We have to recapture the offense and defense that he brings to the table. How much does that cost. of the big money deals which ones look really bad now. Trout, no the Angels still do that deal Betts, no the Dodgers still do that deal, lindor, no I am sure the Mets still do that deal even though he is sucking this year, Tatis, no even though he has been hurt a lot this year the Padres still do that deal, Machado, Padres still do that deal kershaw, Dodgers still do that deal, Harper, the Phillies still do that deal, Stanton, the Yankees probably question that deal but he is still producing good numbers when he is on the field. the point is without Correa we are less than we are with him. Spending the same money in free agency does not guarantee us to get back to where we would be with him. Remember the farm is barren and the pickings will be slim for a while You are exactly right. We have nothing in our farm system to replace Correa and we won't be nearly as good without him. We can spend the money to keep him and be contenders for a WS or we can let him walk and not be likely to win anything. |
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Post by paastrosfan on Jun 22, 2021 17:16:51 GMT -6
Just take a look at the history of the long term deals thru MLB. How many have panned out for the team dealing the big bucks. Look at the Nat's Stephen Strasburg, like CC has a history of injury problems. He has a career year in 19, the Nat's win a WS and reward him with a big deal. Where has he been the last two years, the signing team has to own up to the big decision of sign or not. But then again, why would you blame a player for looking for life-time financial security for his family and himself. The only one smiling on most of these these deals is ole Scotty boy. I never heard the track record of CC's agent Jon Rosen, or the players under contract with him. So if not Correa for Lindor money who and for how much. We have to recapture the offense and defense that he brings to the table. How much does that cost. of the big money deals which ones look really bad now. Trout, no the Angels still do that deal Betts, no the Dodgers still do that deal, lindor, no I am sure the Mets still do that deal even though he is sucking this year, Tatis, no even though he has been hurt a lot this year the Padres still do that deal, Machado, Padres still do that deal kershaw, Dodgers still do that deal, Harper, the Phillies still do that deal, Stanton, the Yankees probably question that deal but he is still producing good numbers when he is on the field. the point is without Correa we are less than we are with him. Spending the same money in free agency does not guarantee us to get back to where we would be with him. Remember the farm is barren and the pickings will be slim for a while Remember who you are talking about here, the Houston Astros. I can go back as far as the Stros not pony up to potential free agents such as Mark Portugal after his career year and letting them walk. Crane might bend, but I don't see long multi years going through. |
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Post by m240 on Jun 22, 2021 18:33:01 GMT -6
So if not Correa for Lindor money who and for how much. We have to recapture the offense and defense that he brings to the table. How much does that cost. of the big money deals which ones look really bad now. Trout, no the Angels still do that deal Betts, no the Dodgers still do that deal, lindor, no I am sure the Mets still do that deal even though he is sucking this year, Tatis, no even though he has been hurt a lot this year the Padres still do that deal, Machado, Padres still do that deal kershaw, Dodgers still do that deal, Harper, the Phillies still do that deal, Stanton, the Yankees probably question that deal but he is still producing good numbers when he is on the field. the point is without Correa we are less than we are with him. Spending the same money in free agency does not guarantee us to get back to where we would be with him. Remember the farm is barren and the pickings will be slim for a while Remember who you are talking about here, the Houston Astros. I can go back as far as the Stros not pony up to potential free agents such as Mark Portugal after his career year and letting them walk. Crane might bend, but I don't see long multi years going through. |
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Post by m240 on Jun 22, 2021 18:35:29 GMT -6
Remember who you are talking about here, the Houston Astros. I can go back as far as the Stros not pony up to potential free agents such as Mark Portugal after his career year and letting them walk. Crane might bend, but I don't see long multi years going through. I got my fingers crossed for a little of that jimmy johnson/jerry Jones dynamic to kick in. Crane will want some of that glory in other words |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jun 22, 2021 19:54:13 GMT -6
Correa should be re-signed for his cojones. Bregman could use some.
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