2024/2025 Offseason Thread

[thomasj13]

Nov 6, 2024 8:50:53 GMT -6 Ashitaka said:

Nov 5, 2024 22:15:31 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Tucker ain’t going for $30, or even $35 AAV… more like $40 min

We'll see. It depends on this coming season. $40 million is Trout territory. You have to be a 7-10 WAR guy consistently to get there. So far he has been a rock solid 5.0 WAR guy. He was headed for greater things when he got hurt, but at the end of the day, it has to be wondered if that was just a couple of great months or and indication that he was breaking out into a true superstar.

Soto is going to get crazy money, so $40M AAV might be deemed a fair deal

[Saint]

Nov 5, 2024 19:33:55 GMT -6 Ashitaka said:

Chandler Rome with some quotes from Dana Brown today:

"Asked if the Astros are in the same ballpark as Scott Boras numbers-wise regarding Alex Bregman, Dana Brown replied 'I would characterize it as optimistic conversations. Bregman’s been a pillar here. Scott is willing to listen and we had really good, productive conversations.'"

Dana Brown on Zach Dezenzo: "If he comes into camp and he plays well, maybe first base will be his every day job. We’re very open to getting production from some of these young guys. I’m not afraid to go with young players."

I'm open to giving Dezenzo a chance at 1B if they can upgrade in other areas (bring Bregman back AND add an OF with a proven-solid bat). But, even if they bring Bregman back, they have to improve either at 1B or in the OF.  I think we can safely say that what we've seen from Pena is what we can expect {a good defender with average offensive value (nothing at all wrong with that while he's cost effective)}.  Altuve, Yordan, Yainer, Tucker, Bregman are all proven good to great offensive players.  But, as much as I like Chas, we can't have potentially 3 offensive holes at 1B, LF, and CF.  You need to fill at least one of those effectively, and then hope that Chas can bounce back and that Dezenzo/Singleton can be at least adequate. 

[unionstation82]

Nov 6, 2024 10:15:08 GMT -6 Saint said:

Nov 5, 2024 19:33:55 GMT -6 Ashitaka said:

Chandler Rome with some quotes from Dana Brown today:

"Asked if the Astros are in the same ballpark as Scott Boras numbers-wise regarding Alex Bregman, Dana Brown replied 'I would characterize it as optimistic conversations. Bregman’s been a pillar here. Scott is willing to listen and we had really good, productive conversations.'"

Dana Brown on Zach Dezenzo: "If he comes into camp and he plays well, maybe first base will be his every day job. We’re very open to getting production from some of these young guys. I’m not afraid to go with young players."

I'm open to giving Dezenzo a chance at 1B if they can upgrade in other areas (bring Bregman back AND add an OF with a proven-solid bat). But, even if they bring Bregman back, they have to improve either at 1B or in the OF.  I think we can safely say that what we've seen from Pena is what we can expect {a good defender with average offensive value (nothing at all wrong with that while he's cost effective)}.  Altuve, Yordan, Yainer, Tucker, Bregman are all proven good to great offensive players.  But, as much as I like Chas, we can't have potentially 3 offensive holes at 1B, LF, and CF.  You need to fill at least one of those effectively, and then hope that Chas can bounce back and that Dezenzo/Singleton can be at least adequate. 

I think that Dezenzo as the answer to 1B is laughable if they don’t upgrade in the OF or 3B (if Bregman leaves).

[Ashitaka]

Nov 6, 2024 9:16:56 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Nov 6, 2024 8:50:53 GMT -6 Ashitaka said:

We'll see. It depends on this coming season. $40 million is Trout territory. You have to be a 7-10 WAR guy consistently to get there. So far he has been a rock solid 5.0 WAR guy. He was headed for greater things when he got hurt, but at the end of the day, it has to be wondered if that was just a couple of great months or and indication that he was breaking out into a true superstar.

Soto is going to get crazy money, so $40M AAV might be deemed a fair deal

Still think it depends on the year Tucker has. He needs to sustain the crazy production he showed before the injury for me to think he'll be at the $40 million level. Soto is widely recognized for the freak of nature he is. I don't think him getting a crazy deal will move the needle a lot for the other guys who are more just have standard greatness.

[Ashitaka]

Today from Chandler Rome:


Bregman and third base remain the team’s “biggest priority,” but there are far broader questions about the state of Houston’s roster and how it can best balance its present and future. Brown has repeated that “nothing is off the table.” Here are some observations and information about what that may entail:


Pressly on the move?

The Astros have had internal discussions about trading setup man Ryan Pressly, according to two people briefed on the conversations, perhaps a signal that Brown is exploring avenues to get further away from the luxury tax. Most outside approximations put the Astros around $10 million below the first threshold when accounting for their projected arbitration salaries.

Pressly will make $14 million next season, but his contract contains a full no-trade clause, giving him autonomy to veto or approve any potential deal. The situation would require both sides working together to find a suitable landing spot for Pressly, who turns 36 in December.

Asked on Tuesday afternoon whether he is exploring trading pieces of his major-league roster, Brown didn’t dismiss the possibility.

“If we can use a major-league piece to get two pieces that will help us solve problems, I would welcome that if that deal shows up,” Brown said. “But I don’t want to trade major-league pieces and weaken the team. It has to make sense for the team and it has to feel like we’re getting better.”

Any team in need of a closer should profile as a logical destination for Pressly, whom Houston demoted to a setup role last season after signing Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million deal. Hader’s presence, coupled with Bryan Abreu’s continued dominance, does make Pressly expendable.

Josh Hader took over as Astros closer in 2024, pushing Ryan Pressly out of the role he’d held since 2021. (Thomas Shea / Imagn Images)
Before Hader’s arrival, Pressly had been Houston’s closer for the previous four seasons, a stretch in which he saved 102 games, posted a 2.99 ERA and authored a streak of 22 2/3 postseason innings without allowing an earned run.

A three-run eighth inning during Game 2 of this year’s Wild Card Series ended Pressly’s playoff prowess and offered a fitting conclusion to his uneven season. Pressly posted a 3.49 ERA, 3.10 FIP and 1.34 WHIP across 59 appearances.

Pressly’s 9.2 hits per nine innings were his most in any 162-game season since 2016. His whiff rate fell to 26.9 percent — 4 percent below his career average — while hitters chased at a 31.5 percent clip against him.

Brown and manager Joe Espada kept Pressly informed during the team’s pursuit of Hader last season. Upon Hader’s arrival, Pressly maintained a professional disposition and declared himself amenable to whatever helped the team win. Publicly, he said all the right things.

Still, Pressly’s performance this season invites wonder whether he had difficulties adjusting to a new role. It stands to reason Pressly would relish another opportunity to close, but whether he’s willing to leave Houston — his wife’s hometown and where both of his children were born — is a legitimate question.


Are other trades in the offing?

That Pressly is being dangled in trade talks prompts wonder whether either Framber Valdez or Kyle Tucker could join him. Both players are projected to make more than $15 million in their final year of arbitration eligibility and nothing Brown said Tuesday made it seem like Houston is hellbent on extending either.

“I don’t think we’re going to be in the business of giving multiple seven-year deals or multiple eight-year deals, but if there’s an opportunity to sign a guy that we feel is going to be good for six or seven years, I think (owner Jim Crane) would do it,” Brown said.

Tucker, who will turn 28 in January, will command the exact sort of deal Crane swears off. Making either him or Valdez available would elicit the sort of return Houston needs to replenish its farm system. Pressly’s salary, age and suspect 2024 will not yield anywhere near the same prospect haul.

Perception is important, though. Trading either Valdez or Tucker could signal that Houston is headed for a rebuild. Whether Crane could handle that is a question one league source raised this week. This is the same owner who has famously boasted the team’s championship window will never close under his watch.

Dealing either Valdez or Tucker should not prevent the Astros from contending in 2025, though it would make the task more difficult.


A meeting of the minds

After acknowledging the Astros “got away” from their offensive approach, Brown, Espada and members of Houston’s front office met with hitting coaches Troy Snitker and Alex Cintrón after the season in hopes of rediscovering it.

“We need to start seeing more pitches. We’ve been far too aggressive too early in the count. Second and third, no outs, we’re swinging at breaking balls early in the count. We need to get away from that,” Brown said.

“We need to hunt the fastball, we need to be a little bit more patient, and aggressive in zone, not so much aggressive out of the zone. I think if we can do that, that’s going to make a big difference.”

No lineup in baseball saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than Houston’s. Only one had a higher chase rate and just two swung more frequently. Missing Tucker for 79 games is an obvious cause for the change, but even with Tucker in tow, Houston still constructed a roster full of free-swinging hitters with tendencies to chase.

Jose Altuve had a career-high 17.5 percent strikeout rate this season, above his career average of 12.8 percent. (Erik Williams / Imagn Images)
If Alex Bregman departs in free agency, it will rob the club of perhaps its most patient hitter, though Bregman’s swing rate skyrocketed and walk rate plummeted during his platform year.

Brown mentioned Jeremy Peña and Yainer Diaz as hitters who could benefit from becoming more patient, but overhauling their entire offensive approach is impossible. Adding an external left-handed hitter who “sees a lot of pitches” would “be a priority for us,” Brown said.

Brown described the meeting with Cintrón and Snitker as “a nice conversation” with two men who absorbed an avalanche of public scrutiny for some of the Astros’ offensive shortcomings.

Cintrón and Snitker just finished their seventh season as Houston’s major-league hitting coaches, a stretch in which Houston’s lineup has resided atop almost all of the sport’s offensive leaderboards. Even in this oft-criticized season, the club still finished with baseball’s second-highest batting average and seventh-highest OPS.

“I don’t know if we should be in the business of blaming coaches for a lack of production, particularly when these same players have had success with these same hitting coaches,” Brown said.


Losing leverage?

The inability of Brown to articulate — or even comprehend — a contingency plan if Bregman signs elsewhere underscores the dearth of highly talented position players on the free-agent market and within Houston’s farm system.

It may also eliminate any leverage Brown may have in negotiations with agent Scott Boras, who acknowledged on Wednesday that Bregman has created “a market that the Astros are very aware is very healthy for him.”

Boras also reiterated that Bregman would be willing to play second base for any interested teams. Asked whether teams have courted Bregman as a second baseman, Boras replied “of course,” only increasing the number of teams that could get involved.

Boras has already negotiated the longest and most lucrative contract of Crane’s ownership tenure — Jose Altuve’s six-year, $151 million extension before the 2018 season. Exceeding it may be necessary.

“I can’t get into the particulars of years, AAV or money or things like that, but just understand, we are having productive conversations,” Brown said. “My vision is for Bregman to be here.”


Another Boras client

Hunter Brown and the Astros had mutual interest in a contract extension as recently as last spring training, people briefed on the discussions said this week. One breakout season and two agent switches later, it’s difficult to envision one ever materializing.

Brown hired Boras to represent him last week, joining the sport’s most renowned agency perhaps with an eye already on free agency. Boras almost always advises his clients to test the open market and rarely consummates the sort of pre-arbitration extension Brown and the Astros explored earlier this year. It’s not impossible — fellow Boras client Lance McCullers Jr. got a five-year, $85 million extension — but it is far from the norm.

Brown isn’t arbitration-eligible until next winter and won’t hit free agency until after the 2028 season. His superb season ended with a 2.51 ERA across his final 147 innings, positioning the 26-year-old among the sport’s budding superstar pitchers. Provided that continues, Boras will ensure he gets paid like one.

[abregmanfan]

Nov 6, 2024 17:06:21 GMT -6 Ashitaka said:

Today from Chandler Rome:


Bregman and third base remain the team’s “biggest priority,” but there are far broader questions about the state of Houston’s roster and how it can best balance its present and future. Brown has repeated that “nothing is off the table.” Here are some observations and information about what that may entail:


Pressly on the move?

The Astros have had internal discussions about trading setup man Ryan Pressly, according to two people briefed on the conversations, perhaps a signal that Brown is exploring avenues to get further away from the luxury tax. Most outside approximations put the Astros around $10 million below the first threshold when accounting for their projected arbitration salaries.

Pressly will make $14 million next season, but his contract contains a full no-trade clause, giving him autonomy to veto or approve any potential deal. The situation would require both sides working together to find a suitable landing spot for Pressly, who turns 36 in December.

Asked on Tuesday afternoon whether he is exploring trading pieces of his major-league roster, Brown didn’t dismiss the possibility.

“If we can use a major-league piece to get two pieces that will help us solve problems, I would welcome that if that deal shows up,” Brown said. “But I don’t want to trade major-league pieces and weaken the team. It has to make sense for the team and it has to feel like we’re getting better.”

Any team in need of a closer should profile as a logical destination for Pressly, whom Houston demoted to a setup role last season after signing Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million deal. Hader’s presence, coupled with Bryan Abreu’s continued dominance, does make Pressly expendable.

Josh Hader took over as Astros closer in 2024, pushing Ryan Pressly out of the role he’d held since 2021. (Thomas Shea / Imagn Images)
Before Hader’s arrival, Pressly had been Houston’s closer for the previous four seasons, a stretch in which he saved 102 games, posted a 2.99 ERA and authored a streak of 22 2/3 postseason innings without allowing an earned run.

A three-run eighth inning during Game 2 of this year’s Wild Card Series ended Pressly’s playoff prowess and offered a fitting conclusion to his uneven season. Pressly posted a 3.49 ERA, 3.10 FIP and 1.34 WHIP across 59 appearances.

Pressly’s 9.2 hits per nine innings were his most in any 162-game season since 2016. His whiff rate fell to 26.9 percent — 4 percent below his career average — while hitters chased at a 31.5 percent clip against him.

Brown and manager Joe Espada kept Pressly informed during the team’s pursuit of Hader last season. Upon Hader’s arrival, Pressly maintained a professional disposition and declared himself amenable to whatever helped the team win. Publicly, he said all the right things.

Still, Pressly’s performance this season invites wonder whether he had difficulties adjusting to a new role. It stands to reason Pressly would relish another opportunity to close, but whether he’s willing to leave Houston — his wife’s hometown and where both of his children were born — is a legitimate question.


Are other trades in the offing?

That Pressly is being dangled in trade talks prompts wonder whether either Framber Valdez or Kyle Tucker could join him. Both players are projected to make more than $15 million in their final year of arbitration eligibility and nothing Brown said Tuesday made it seem like Houston is hellbent on extending either.

“I don’t think we’re going to be in the business of giving multiple seven-year deals or multiple eight-year deals, but if there’s an opportunity to sign a guy that we feel is going to be good for six or seven years, I think (owner Jim Crane) would do it,” Brown said.

Tucker, who will turn 28 in January, will command the exact sort of deal Crane swears off. Making either him or Valdez available would elicit the sort of return Houston needs to replenish its farm system. Pressly’s salary, age and suspect 2024 will not yield anywhere near the same prospect haul.

Perception is important, though. Trading either Valdez or Tucker could signal that Houston is headed for a rebuild. Whether Crane could handle that is a question one league source raised this week. This is the same owner who has famously boasted the team’s championship window will never close under his watch.

Dealing either Valdez or Tucker should not prevent the Astros from contending in 2025, though it would make the task more difficult.


A meeting of the minds

After acknowledging the Astros “got away” from their offensive approach, Brown, Espada and members of Houston’s front office met with hitting coaches Troy Snitker and Alex Cintrón after the season in hopes of rediscovering it.

“We need to start seeing more pitches. We’ve been far too aggressive too early in the count. Second and third, no outs, we’re swinging at breaking balls early in the count. We need to get away from that,” Brown said.

“We need to hunt the fastball, we need to be a little bit more patient, and aggressive in zone, not so much aggressive out of the zone. I think if we can do that, that’s going to make a big difference.”

No lineup in baseball saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than Houston’s. Only one had a higher chase rate and just two swung more frequently. Missing Tucker for 79 games is an obvious cause for the change, but even with Tucker in tow, Houston still constructed a roster full of free-swinging hitters with tendencies to chase.

Jose Altuve had a career-high 17.5 percent strikeout rate this season, above his career average of 12.8 percent. (Erik Williams / Imagn Images)
If Alex Bregman departs in free agency, it will rob the club of perhaps its most patient hitter, though Bregman’s swing rate skyrocketed and walk rate plummeted during his platform year.

Brown mentioned Jeremy Peña and Yainer Diaz as hitters who could benefit from becoming more patient, but overhauling their entire offensive approach is impossible. Adding an external left-handed hitter who “sees a lot of pitches” would “be a priority for us,” Brown said.

Brown described the meeting with Cintrón and Snitker as “a nice conversation” with two men who absorbed an avalanche of public scrutiny for some of the Astros’ offensive shortcomings.

Cintrón and Snitker just finished their seventh season as Houston’s major-league hitting coaches, a stretch in which Houston’s lineup has resided atop almost all of the sport’s offensive leaderboards. Even in this oft-criticized season, the club still finished with baseball’s second-highest batting average and seventh-highest OPS.

“I don’t know if we should be in the business of blaming coaches for a lack of production, particularly when these same players have had success with these same hitting coaches,” Brown said.


Losing leverage?

The inability of Brown to articulate — or even comprehend — a contingency plan if Bregman signs elsewhere underscores the dearth of highly talented position players on the free-agent market and within Houston’s farm system.

It may also eliminate any leverage Brown may have in negotiations with agent Scott Boras, who acknowledged on Wednesday that Bregman has created “a market that the Astros are very aware is very healthy for him.”

Boras also reiterated that Bregman would be willing to play second base for any interested teams. Asked whether teams have courted Bregman as a second baseman, Boras replied “of course,” only increasing the number of teams that could get involved.

Boras has already negotiated the longest and most lucrative contract of Crane’s ownership tenure — Jose Altuve’s six-year, $151 million extension before the 2018 season. Exceeding it may be necessary.

“I can’t get into the particulars of years, AAV or money or things like that, but just understand, we are having productive conversations,” Brown said. “My vision is for Bregman to be here.”


Another Boras client

Hunter Brown and the Astros had mutual interest in a contract extension as recently as last spring training, people briefed on the discussions said this week. One breakout season and two agent switches later, it’s difficult to envision one ever materializing.

Brown hired Boras to represent him last week, joining the sport’s most renowned agency perhaps with an eye already on free agency. Boras almost always advises his clients to test the open market and rarely consummates the sort of pre-arbitration extension Brown and the Astros explored earlier this year. It’s not impossible — fellow Boras client Lance McCullers Jr. got a five-year, $85 million extension — but it is far from the norm.

Brown isn’t arbitration-eligible until next winter and won’t hit free agency until after the 2028 season. His superb season ended with a 2.51 ERA across his final 147 innings, positioning the 26-year-old among the sport’s budding superstar pitchers. Provided that continues, Boras will ensure he gets paid like one.

Great read. Thanks!

[thomasj13]

What possible 2025 playoff contending teams with a top farm system would be interested in Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez?

[thomasj13]

Nov 6, 2024 22:07:14 GMT -6 abregmanfan said:

Nov 6, 2024 17:06:21 GMT -6 Ashitaka said:

Today from Chandler Rome:


Bregman and third base remain the team’s “biggest priority,” but there are far broader questions about the state of Houston’s roster and how it can best balance its present and future. Brown has repeated that “nothing is off the table.” Here are some observations and information about what that may entail:


Pressly on the move?

The Astros have had internal discussions about trading setup man Ryan Pressly, according to two people briefed on the conversations, perhaps a signal that Brown is exploring avenues to get further away from the luxury tax. Most outside approximations put the Astros around $10 million below the first threshold when accounting for their projected arbitration salaries.

Pressly will make $14 million next season, but his contract contains a full no-trade clause, giving him autonomy to veto or approve any potential deal. The situation would require both sides working together to find a suitable landing spot for Pressly, who turns 36 in December.

Asked on Tuesday afternoon whether he is exploring trading pieces of his major-league roster, Brown didn’t dismiss the possibility.

“If we can use a major-league piece to get two pieces that will help us solve problems, I would welcome that if that deal shows up,” Brown said. “But I don’t want to trade major-league pieces and weaken the team. It has to make sense for the team and it has to feel like we’re getting better.”

Any team in need of a closer should profile as a logical destination for Pressly, whom Houston demoted to a setup role last season after signing Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million deal. Hader’s presence, coupled with Bryan Abreu’s continued dominance, does make Pressly expendable.

Josh Hader took over as Astros closer in 2024, pushing Ryan Pressly out of the role he’d held since 2021. (Thomas Shea / Imagn Images)
Before Hader’s arrival, Pressly had been Houston’s closer for the previous four seasons, a stretch in which he saved 102 games, posted a 2.99 ERA and authored a streak of 22 2/3 postseason innings without allowing an earned run.

A three-run eighth inning during Game 2 of this year’s Wild Card Series ended Pressly’s playoff prowess and offered a fitting conclusion to his uneven season. Pressly posted a 3.49 ERA, 3.10 FIP and 1.34 WHIP across 59 appearances.

Pressly’s 9.2 hits per nine innings were his most in any 162-game season since 2016. His whiff rate fell to 26.9 percent — 4 percent below his career average — while hitters chased at a 31.5 percent clip against him.

Brown and manager Joe Espada kept Pressly informed during the team’s pursuit of Hader last season. Upon Hader’s arrival, Pressly maintained a professional disposition and declared himself amenable to whatever helped the team win. Publicly, he said all the right things.

Still, Pressly’s performance this season invites wonder whether he had difficulties adjusting to a new role. It stands to reason Pressly would relish another opportunity to close, but whether he’s willing to leave Houston — his wife’s hometown and where both of his children were born — is a legitimate question.


Are other trades in the offing?

That Pressly is being dangled in trade talks prompts wonder whether either Framber Valdez or Kyle Tucker could join him. Both players are projected to make more than $15 million in their final year of arbitration eligibility and nothing Brown said Tuesday made it seem like Houston is hellbent on extending either.

“I don’t think we’re going to be in the business of giving multiple seven-year deals or multiple eight-year deals, but if there’s an opportunity to sign a guy that we feel is going to be good for six or seven years, I think (owner Jim Crane) would do it,” Brown said.

Tucker, who will turn 28 in January, will command the exact sort of deal Crane swears off. Making either him or Valdez available would elicit the sort of return Houston needs to replenish its farm system. Pressly’s salary, age and suspect 2024 will not yield anywhere near the same prospect haul.

Perception is important, though. Trading either Valdez or Tucker could signal that Houston is headed for a rebuild. Whether Crane could handle that is a question one league source raised this week. This is the same owner who has famously boasted the team’s championship window will never close under his watch.

Dealing either Valdez or Tucker should not prevent the Astros from contending in 2025, though it would make the task more difficult.


A meeting of the minds

After acknowledging the Astros “got away” from their offensive approach, Brown, Espada and members of Houston’s front office met with hitting coaches Troy Snitker and Alex Cintrón after the season in hopes of rediscovering it.

“We need to start seeing more pitches. We’ve been far too aggressive too early in the count. Second and third, no outs, we’re swinging at breaking balls early in the count. We need to get away from that,” Brown said.

“We need to hunt the fastball, we need to be a little bit more patient, and aggressive in zone, not so much aggressive out of the zone. I think if we can do that, that’s going to make a big difference.”

No lineup in baseball saw fewer pitches per plate appearance than Houston’s. Only one had a higher chase rate and just two swung more frequently. Missing Tucker for 79 games is an obvious cause for the change, but even with Tucker in tow, Houston still constructed a roster full of free-swinging hitters with tendencies to chase.

Jose Altuve had a career-high 17.5 percent strikeout rate this season, above his career average of 12.8 percent. (Erik Williams / Imagn Images)
If Alex Bregman departs in free agency, it will rob the club of perhaps its most patient hitter, though Bregman’s swing rate skyrocketed and walk rate plummeted during his platform year.

Brown mentioned Jeremy Peña and Yainer Diaz as hitters who could benefit from becoming more patient, but overhauling their entire offensive approach is impossible. Adding an external left-handed hitter who “sees a lot of pitches” would “be a priority for us,” Brown said.

Brown described the meeting with Cintrón and Snitker as “a nice conversation” with two men who absorbed an avalanche of public scrutiny for some of the Astros’ offensive shortcomings.

Cintrón and Snitker just finished their seventh season as Houston’s major-league hitting coaches, a stretch in which Houston’s lineup has resided atop almost all of the sport’s offensive leaderboards. Even in this oft-criticized season, the club still finished with baseball’s second-highest batting average and seventh-highest OPS.

“I don’t know if we should be in the business of blaming coaches for a lack of production, particularly when these same players have had success with these same hitting coaches,” Brown said.


Losing leverage?

The inability of Brown to articulate — or even comprehend — a contingency plan if Bregman signs elsewhere underscores the dearth of highly talented position players on the free-agent market and within Houston’s farm system.

It may also eliminate any leverage Brown may have in negotiations with agent Scott Boras, who acknowledged on Wednesday that Bregman has created “a market that the Astros are very aware is very healthy for him.”

Boras also reiterated that Bregman would be willing to play second base for any interested teams. Asked whether teams have courted Bregman as a second baseman, Boras replied “of course,” only increasing the number of teams that could get involved.

Boras has already negotiated the longest and most lucrative contract of Crane’s ownership tenure — Jose Altuve’s six-year, $151 million extension before the 2018 season. Exceeding it may be necessary.

“I can’t get into the particulars of years, AAV or money or things like that, but just understand, we are having productive conversations,” Brown said. “My vision is for Bregman to be here.”


Another Boras client

Hunter Brown and the Astros had mutual interest in a contract extension as recently as last spring training, people briefed on the discussions said this week. One breakout season and two agent switches later, it’s difficult to envision one ever materializing.

Brown hired Boras to represent him last week, joining the sport’s most renowned agency perhaps with an eye already on free agency. Boras almost always advises his clients to test the open market and rarely consummates the sort of pre-arbitration extension Brown and the Astros explored earlier this year. It’s not impossible — fellow Boras client Lance McCullers Jr. got a five-year, $85 million extension — but it is far from the norm.

Brown isn’t arbitration-eligible until next winter and won’t hit free agency until after the 2028 season. His superb season ended with a 2.51 ERA across his final 147 innings, positioning the 26-year-old among the sport’s budding superstar pitchers. Provided that continues, Boras will ensure he gets paid like one.

Great read. Thanks!

Unless the contract is really team friendly, I’m not for extending pitchers into truly long term deals. It just seems more now than ever pitchers, because of analytics + coaching, are going full max on every pitch. Therefore, their susceptibility to long recovery injuries is substantially higher.

Astros have Brown for a while, let it play itself out. Plus, the Astros seem to develop prospects into impactful major league pitchers. Hitters not so much of late.

[abregmanfan]

Nov 7, 2024 5:51:15 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

What possible 2025 playoff contending teams with a top farm system would be interested in Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez?

Dodgers.

[Ashitaka]

Roki Sasaki is going to be posted and will be subject, due to his age, to the standard amature payment system (six years of club control starting at league minimum etc.) Crane should make every effort here if he's serious. Sasaki is arguably the most talented pitcher in the entire world and will be MLB ready immediately and yet will have the club control of any promoted prospect.

www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/npbs-chiba-lotte-marines-to-post-roki-sasaki-for-mlb-clubs.html

[unionstation82]

Nov 9, 2024 9:25:12 GMT -6 Ashitaka said:

Roki Sasaki is going to be posted and will be subject, due to his age, to the standard amature payment system (six years of club control starting at league minimum etc.) Crane should make every effort here if he's serious. Sasaki is arguably the most talented pitcher in the entire world and will be MLB ready immediately and yet will have the club control of any promoted prospect.

www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/npbs-chiba-lotte-marines-to-post-roki-sasaki-for-mlb-clubs.html

LOL

[thomasj13]

Nov 9, 2024 9:25:12 GMT -6 Ashitaka said:

Roki Sasaki is going to be posted and will be subject, due to his age, to the standard amature payment system (six years of club control starting at league minimum etc.) Crane should make every effort here if he's serious. Sasaki is arguably the most talented pitcher in the entire world and will be MLB ready immediately and yet will have the club control of any promoted prospect.

www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/npbs-chiba-lotte-marines-to-post-roki-sasaki-for-mlb-clubs.html

I skimmed the article, what is the most he can get? Is there a cap?

[Ashitaka]

Nov 9, 2024 10:10:02 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Nov 9, 2024 9:25:12 GMT -6 Ashitaka said:

Roki Sasaki is going to be posted and will be subject, due to his age, to the standard amature payment system (six years of club control starting at league minimum etc.) Crane should make every effort here if he's serious. Sasaki is arguably the most talented pitcher in the entire world and will be MLB ready immediately and yet will have the club control of any promoted prospect.

www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/npbs-chiba-lotte-marines-to-post-roki-sasaki-for-mlb-clubs.html

I skimmed the article, what is the most he can get? Is there a cap?

I believe this means he would draw from the international bonus pool, which is usually around 5-8 million depending on circumstances. There are caps on how much of that you can give to any individual player as well, and MLB would reject any contract extension that happened soon after (this prevents teams from abusing the system by signing someone for not much bonus money and then giving him a wink wink extension soon after). In short, he will come VERY cheap to whoever gets him and be controlled for six year like any other prospect. He won't make crazy money no matter where he goes. So the Astros would need to figure out how to convince him that Houston is the best destination for him for non-financial reasons. No state sales tax would help. But they'll have to convince him not to just go be with Ohtani and Yamamoto on the Dodgers.

[Ashitaka]

Roy Oswalt concurs: x.com/royoswalt44net/status/1855349987120452060

[Saint]

Never happen. The asians love the west coast.

[thomasj13]

Nov 11, 2024 10:44:33 GMT -6 Saint said:

Never happen. The asians love the west coast.

Closer to home

[thomasj13]

I’m really going to dislike 2026, when Tucker is playing elsewhere, and the Astros have nothing to show for it. Thus, they didn’t trade him to get top, major league ready prospects, and they didn’t win a 2025 WS ring. I feeling a little Timmish; little puppies beware, you could be kicked!

[unionstation82]

Nov 11, 2024 10:55:51 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

I’m really going to dislike 2026, when Tucker is playing elsewhere, and the Astros have nothing to show for it. Thus, they didn’t trade him to get top, major league ready prospects, and they didn’t win a 2025 WS ring. I feeling a little Timmish; little puppies beware, you could be kicked!

This “dedication to the window” has gotten old just like the roster. When you keep trading parts of the barren farm system to keep the fading playoff run going, sure it’s exciting now, but the crash is coming. The farm is ranked dead last while players continue to move on for not wanting Crane’s discounts. What we hated watching from 2012-14 is coming so they need to inject life into the farm sooner rather than later.

[Saint]

Nov 11, 2024 11:00:28 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

Nov 11, 2024 10:55:51 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

I’m really going to dislike 2026, when Tucker is playing elsewhere, and the Astros have nothing to show for it. Thus, they didn’t trade him to get top, major league ready prospects, and they didn’t win a 2025 WS ring. I feeling a little Timmish; little puppies beware, you could be kicked!

This “dedication to the window” has gotten old just like the roster. When you keep trading parts of the barren farm system to keep the fading playoff run going, sure it’s exciting now, but the crash is coming. The farm is ranked dead last while players continue to move on for not wanting Crane’s discounts. What we hated watching from 2012-14 is coming so they need to inject life into the farm sooner rather than later.

What do you mean "dedication to the window" has gotten old?  You mean how he signed a veteran free agent last year and we won the division again? Crane isn't the one that stopped hitting. 

[thomasj13]

Nov 11, 2024 11:00:28 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

Nov 11, 2024 10:55:51 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

I’m really going to dislike 2026, when Tucker is playing elsewhere, and the Astros have nothing to show for it. Thus, they didn’t trade him to get top, major league ready prospects, and they didn’t win a 2025 WS ring. I feeling a little Timmish; little puppies beware, you could be kicked!

This “dedication to the window” has gotten old just like the roster. When you keep trading parts of the barren farm system to keep the fading playoff run going, sure it’s exciting now, but the crash is coming. The farm is ranked dead last while players continue to move on for not wanting Crane’s discounts. What we hated watching from 2012-14 is coming so they need to inject life into the farm sooner rather than later.

The crash could be in 2026 if Tucker and Valdez are not traded. Both will be FAs in 2026. Crane can’t afford one of them and the other he should not commit to, so trade them before it’s too late.

[Saint]

Nov 11, 2024 11:41:15 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Nov 11, 2024 11:00:28 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

This “dedication to the window” has gotten old just like the roster. When you keep trading parts of the barren farm system to keep the fading playoff run going, sure it’s exciting now, but the crash is coming. The farm is ranked dead last while players continue to move on for not wanting Crane’s discounts. What we hated watching from 2012-14 is coming so they need to inject life into the farm sooner rather than later.

The crash could be in 2026 if Tucker and Valdez are not traded. Both will be FAs in 2026. Crane can’t afford one of them and the other he should not commit to, so trade them before it’s too late.

I'm opening to trading them too, depending on what we would get back and what FA moves we make, but, trying to get one more good year out of them isn't terrible.

Two QO prospects to pair with, hopefully, another strong draft from Brown, and a ton of money off the books. 2026 could be a big year to kind of reset things and adjust for the next era whether we're successful in 2025 or not.  

[unionstation82]

Nov 11, 2024 11:11:43 GMT -6 Saint said:

Nov 11, 2024 11:00:28 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

This “dedication to the window” has gotten old just like the roster. When you keep trading parts of the barren farm system to keep the fading playoff run going, sure it’s exciting now, but the crash is coming. The farm is ranked dead last while players continue to move on for not wanting Crane’s discounts. What we hated watching from 2012-14 is coming so they need to inject life into the farm sooner rather than later.

What do you mean "dedication to the window" has gotten old?  You mean how he signed a veteran free agent last year and we won the division again? Crane isn't the one that stopped hitting. 

The neglect of the farm. If it were middle of the pack, it’s one thing. If it’s dead last in baseball, that’s another. It’s unacceptable to do things like trade what’s left for a guy like Kikuchi if they’re not bringing him back.

[thomasj13]

Nov 11, 2024 12:19:41 GMT -6 Saint said:

Nov 11, 2024 11:41:15 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

The crash could be in 2026 if Tucker and Valdez are not traded. Both will be FAs in 2026. Crane can’t afford one of them and the other he should not commit to, so trade them before it’s too late.

I'm opening to trading them too, depending on what we would get back and what FA moves we make, but, trying to get one more good year out of them isn't terrible.

Two QO prospects to pair with, hopefully, another strong draft from Brown, and a ton of money off the books. 2026 could be a big year to kind of reset things and adjust for the next era whether we're successful in 2025 or not.  

How are the draft compensation picks doing for the ones the Astros got for Springer, Correa and Cole?

[unionstation82]

Nov 11, 2024 14:37:23 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Nov 11, 2024 12:19:41 GMT -6 Saint said:

I'm opening to trading them too, depending on what we would get back and what FA moves we make, but, trying to get one more good year out of them isn't terrible.

Two QO prospects to pair with, hopefully, another strong draft from Brown, and a ton of money off the books. 2026 could be a big year to kind of reset things and adjust for the next era whether we're successful in 2025 or not.  

How are the draft compensation picks doing for the ones the Astros got for Springer, Correa and Cole?

This is going to be me comforting Todd after the offseason.

[Saint]

Nov 11, 2024 14:37:23 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Nov 11, 2024 12:19:41 GMT -6 Saint said:

I'm opening to trading them too, depending on what we would get back and what FA moves we make, but, trying to get one more good year out of them isn't terrible.

Two QO prospects to pair with, hopefully, another strong draft from Brown, and a ton of money off the books. 2026 could be a big year to kind of reset things and adjust for the next era whether we're successful in 2025 or not.  

How are the draft compensation picks doing for the ones the Astros got for Springer, Correa and Cole?

I don't know.  But I know how the championship, pennants, and division titles we won without them are doing.  I would take that that swap anytime. 

[Saint]

Nov 11, 2024 15:03:19 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

Nov 11, 2024 14:37:23 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

How are the draft compensation picks doing for the ones the Astros got for Springer, Correa and Cole?

This is going to be me comforting Todd after the offseason.

Pfft.  You're the only person I've ever seen who wants to rebuild after winning their division. 

[thomasj13]

Nov 11, 2024 15:26:21 GMT -6 Saint said:

Nov 11, 2024 14:37:23 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

How are the draft compensation picks doing for the ones the Astros got for Springer, Correa and Cole?

I don't know.  But I know how the championship, pennants, and division titles we won without them are doing.  I would take that that swap anytime. 

Ash is right , the Astros were Next Man Up back then, and a farm system to trade prospects from to get needed vets. That is no longer the case, so that approach doesn’t work anymore. Not to mention the Astros are passed the luxury cap. Trading away pending 2026 Free Agents: Tucker, Valdez and Pressly is a must now.

[Saint]

Nov 11, 2024 15:43:54 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Nov 11, 2024 15:26:21 GMT -6 Saint said:

I don't know.  But I know how the championship, pennants, and division titles we won without them are doing.  I would take that that swap anytime. 

Ash is right , the Astros were Next Man Up back then, and a farm system to trade prospects from to get needed vets. That is no longer the case, so that approach doesn’t work anymore. Not to mention the Astros are passed the luxury cap. Trading away pending 2026 Free Agents: Tucker, Valdez and Pressly is a must now.

You say that, but in the last few years we've seen successful call-ups of Yainer, Arrighetti, France, Pena, Brown, etc.

[unionstation82]

Nov 11, 2024 15:27:56 GMT -6 Saint said:

Nov 11, 2024 15:03:19 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

This is going to be me comforting Todd after the offseason.

Pfft.  You're the only person I've ever seen who wants to rebuild after winning their division. 

Two reasons I want to rebuild:

1. Crane keeps letting players walk without compensation.
2. Our farm system is a perennial bottom feeder in rankings.

[Ashitaka]

Nov 11, 2024 10:55:51 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

I’m really going to dislike 2026, when Tucker is playing elsewhere, and the Astros have nothing to show for it. Thus, they didn’t trade him to get top, major league ready prospects, and they didn’t win a 2025 WS ring. I feeling a little Timmish; little puppies beware, you could be kicked!

Hey now, it won't be nothing. That 2026 5th round pick we get for him going to the Yankees will probably turn into a solid #5 starter. When he's posting three earned runs in five innings against Las Vegas in the 2030 season it will all have been worth it!