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Post by bearbryant on Nov 22, 2024 14:41:39 GMT -6
I liked Hays when his salary was arb-controlled. Now he's kind of a shrug
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Post by unionstation82 on Nov 22, 2024 15:33:02 GMT -6
Rumors on social media that it's believed they've offered Bregman a six-year deal. Allegedly he is seeing if anybody else does better but he wants to stay in Houston. We'll see. That would be great because I don’t like the infield defense without him. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Nov 22, 2024 15:33:58 GMT -6
Rumors on social media that it's believed they've offered Bregman a six-year deal. Allegedly he is seeing if anybody else does better but he wants to stay in Houston. We'll see. Personally I wouldn't go higher than 4/88 for Bregman LOL Bregman would leave so fast. |
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Post by Ashitaka on Nov 22, 2024 17:20:44 GMT -6
Austin Hays is going to be released by the Phillies. He could be an interesting bounce back candidate free agent for cheap to help with the corner OF. (Although he has played all 3 OF positions.) Last year he missed half the season due to some health issues, but the previous three years he averaged: 140 Games 2.7 WAR 18 HR 66 RBI 72 Runs .261 AVG 109 OPS+ Sort of a more consistent Chas. That's not a bad idea. Hays is quite good vs. LHP and just a hair below-average against righties, and his defense in CF is legitimate, as good as Chas there or possibly even better. In a similar vein, Sam Haggerty is being non-tendered by Seattle. Played 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, RF and is actually pretty good to great at all of them. Switch hitter. Had Achilles injury last season, but the previous two years saw him post wRC+ of 110 and 115. On his career he's far better vs. LHP so you would want to platoon him mostly. Could be a really valuable bench piece. Basically Dubon but with an actual OPS thanks to more walks and more power vs. lefties. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Nov 23, 2024 6:33:47 GMT -6
Add trading for Yandy Diaz to my offseason wish list. If Goldschmidt doesn’t sign with the Astros, acquire Yandy Diaz. Hopefully the price tag is Pedro Leon + some 10-20 ranked Astros prospect.
Add on top of that signing change up specialist, Tommy Kahlne.
Therefore in this scenario
Re-sign Bregman
Re-sign Kikuchi
Trade Tucker and Pressly to Phillies: Painter (2025 SP) , Crawford (2026 OF) Castellanos (2025 RF)
Trade Valdez to the Red Sox: Anthony (2025 CF) or Campbell (2025 LF) and Sandlin (long inning reliever/spot starter)
Trade for Yandy Diaz
Sign Tommy Kahlne
2B - Altuve
3B - Bregman
DH - Alvarez
1B - Yandy Diaz
C - Yanier Diaz
CF - Anthony (big ask this early, but he hits LH )
RF - Castellanos ( FTR / I think he is in the trade just to make it work for the Phillies - salary dump)
SS - Pena
LF - Dubon/McCormick/Meyers
2026
Replace LF or RF with Crawford. Astros could try to trade away Castellanos if Melton is ready.
OF for several years to follow - Crawford, Anthony, Melton
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Post by thomasj13 on Nov 23, 2024 6:50:53 GMT -6
Does Bryce Matthews replace Jeremy Pena at SS in 2026 or 2027, or never?
Does Walker Janek get sometime at catcher in 2026, and then become the starting 2027 catcher, thus Yanier Diaz is at 1B in 2027?
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Post by thomasj13 on Nov 23, 2024 7:23:06 GMT -6
In the coming years, if the Astros are not competitive even in the AL West, do you think Hader’s contract can be traded?
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Post by abregmanfan on Nov 23, 2024 10:05:38 GMT -6
In the coming years, if the Astros are not competitive even in the AL West, do you think Hader’s contract can be traded? Hader, yes. His contract, no. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Nov 23, 2024 10:25:46 GMT -6
In the coming years, if the Astros are not competitive even in the AL West, do you think Hader’s contract can be traded? Hader, yes. His contract, no. . That’s what I was thinking |
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Post by unionstation82 on Nov 23, 2024 17:24:15 GMT -6
Hader, yes. His contract, no. . That’s what I was thinking Why’s it that the Astros coaches are shit at having dominant closers? I dog Pressly a lot but his postseason history is basically the only good thing we’ve got since the Brick Red days. They brought in Hader and he’s a gopher ball machine. |
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Post by Ashitaka on Nov 23, 2024 18:55:52 GMT -6
Does Bryce Matthews replace Jeremy Pena at SS in 2026 or 2027, or never? Does Walker Janek get sometime at catcher in 2026, and then become the starting 2027 catcher, thus Yanier Diaz is at 1B in 2027? It seems unlikely that Matthews will be as good defensively as Pena, so as long as they are both around, I don't see him getting most of his time at SS. He has played a lot of 3B so if they don't resign Bregman Matthews could theoretically be ready some time in 2025 to get a look there. If he starts really hitting and they have Bregman resigned though, you could see a trade, either of Matthews or Pena. Janek is much better thought of defensively than Yainer. I think they will develop his defensive game as slowly and carefully as they find necessary. I would be surprised to see him in the Majors in 2025. I think they'll go Yainer/Caratini all this year with Salazar coming up if needed. Then hope Janek is ready out of Spring camp in 2026 with Salazar becoming the full-time backup (weird thing to say) if not. |
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Post by Ashitaka on Nov 23, 2024 19:17:13 GMT -6
. That’s what I was thinking Why’s it that the Astros coaches are shit at having dominant closers? I dog Pressly a lot but his postseason history is basically the only good thing we’ve got since the Brick Red days. They brought in Hader and he’s a gopher ball machine. The more I think on it, I dislike the high fastball/high strikeout closers. That style of pitching, especially against good hitting, requires utter perfection, not because mistakes get hit, but because mistakes get hit over the wall. When you think about maybe the two best and most consistent and most long-lasting closers in history, it's Mariano and Hoffman, right? Go look at their strikeout numbers. They missed bats, but not like Hader, Kimbrel, Chapman etc. Now look at their HR/FB ratios. Both of them under 7% on their CAREER. Just bonkers. They each had multiple seasons under 5%. Those guys almost never walked anyone, they held the runners they did allow, and only about 1 out of 20 fly balls they did allow left the yard. That's why they were so elite for so long. Or you can be an ultra-ground ball guy. Peak Zack Britton was a monster. 75-80% ground balls. His HR/FB ratio was really mediocre and he only had a couple years of good but not crazy strikeout rates. But when only like 5% of the contact you allow even has an actual chance to have the loft and velocity to get over an OF head, you aren't going to get blown up much. Now look at Hader. He has a high velo heater and ooh-aah strikeout numbers. But his walk rate is mediocre and over 13% of the flyballs he allows go out. And since his GB rate is only 30% he's allowing a lot of fly balls. It's clearly a recipe for explosions and we saw a bunch of them last year. I'm looking at all the closers from the last decade and looking for someone who has a walk rate over 3.50 per nine, a HR/FB ratio over 10%, and a ground ball rate under 35% but who has been consistently great. There are...zero except for Hader basically. All the big names do better in at least one category; Hendriks never walks anyone, Chapman gets ground balls along with the strikeouts, Clase is a groundball freak, etc. Hader is just out there walking the tightrope alone. He's one of two relievers with 300+ innings since 2017 who has a GB rate under 30%. His two ludicrous seasons were 2021 and 2023, with ERA's below 2.00 both seasons. In both those seasons his HR/FB ratio was like half of his career rate. In all his other seasons combined though, his ERA is a much more pedestrian 3.19. Certainly not awful, but certainly not a $19 million per year ace closer. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Nov 24, 2024 6:55:29 GMT -6
What does anyone make of the Astros talking with Verlander?
Are we talking $10M + heavy incentives?
What is the Astros 2025 rotation?
Valdez (please trade)
Brown
Garcia (is he back?)
Blanco
Spaghetti
Long inning relief / France (is he back?)
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Post by thomasj13 on Nov 24, 2024 7:25:36 GMT -6
VD, make this trade happen:
Pressly, McCormick and McCullers
For
Mullins, Mountcastle
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Post by m240 on Nov 24, 2024 8:58:32 GMT -6
What does anyone make of the Astros talking with Verlander? Are we talking $10M + heavy incentives? What is the Astros 2025 rotation? Valdez (please trade) Brown Garcia (is he back?) Blanco Spaghetti Long inning relief / France (is he back?) I think that Verlander still thinks he can contribute at a high level with a quality team. I also think he wants to have some rope to see if he can put it all back together with an owner that will give him that rope. Given their relationship I think that Crane will cause that to happen. |
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Post by m240 on Nov 24, 2024 9:12:14 GMT -6
Back a few years ago Voodoo would come to this site and post crazy trades a lot of the times but on occasion he would post thought provoking trade and free agent proposals. Often it would cause me to research young players that I had no idea existed and think through what was proposed and think up some sort of counter proposal of my own. It would be nice if he showed back up and did the same song and dance as this off season we really need to make some significant changes.
If we lose Bregman this year and Tucker and Valdez next year with nothing in return this team will suffer through a major reset in the years that follow. What I am intrigued by is what exactly is a reasonable return for Tucker and Valdez with only a year left in their control. And then who replaces them for this coming year. There is an awfully large chunk of dead weight on the roster that needs to be pruned but how can that be done. I have been so busy over the past year I honestly have no idea where they are right now. I do know though it is a tough spot and will be interesting to see how they progress from here.
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Post by Ashitaka on Nov 24, 2024 11:13:23 GMT -6
What does anyone make of the Astros talking with Verlander? Are we talking $10M + heavy incentives? What is the Astros 2025 rotation? Valdez (please trade) Brown Garcia (is he back?) Blanco Spaghetti Long inning relief / France (is he back?) I think his market will be depressed enough that, combined with Crane's love for him and JV liking it here, he has a good chance to resign. He might get $15 million base with incentives, and maybe a vesting option if he reaches 175 innings or something. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Tigers and Hinch lure him back though. |
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