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Post by abregmanfan on Jun 30, 2018 20:54:11 GMT -6
I would rather have a lock down pen. It would be nice to add another bat no doubt, but we have to upgrade the pen.
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Post by olpapa on Jun 30, 2018 21:22:20 GMT -6
I would rather have a lock down pen. It would be nice to add another bat no doubt, but we have to upgrade the pen. I agree with you on the need to upgrade the pen. The bat we need may be at Fresno waiting to be called up. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jun 30, 2018 21:53:48 GMT -6
I would rather have a lock down pen. It would be nice to add another bat no doubt, but we have to upgrade the pen. The pitching will be fine. Raisel Iglesias would be a good addition, but I’m with Todd about needing a proven bat, particularly for LF. It’s time to bail on Marwin, and we need insurance in case the role is too big for Tucker. I’m also never entirely sold on Gattis being the everyday option at DH. If they would solve one of those two positions, I’d be a lot more comfortable. The Mariners are forcing the issue now and the Astros have less time to tell struggling players, “I believe in you, son. Go get ‘em.” |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jun 30, 2018 22:09:27 GMT -6
I would rather have a lock down pen. It would be nice to add another bat no doubt, but we have to upgrade the pen. The pitching will be fine. Raisel Iglesias would be a good addition, but I’m with Todd about needing a proven bat, particularly for LF. It’s time to bail on Marwin, and we need insurance in case the role is too big for Tucker. I’m also never entirely sold on Gattis being the everyday option at DH. If they would solve one of those two positions, I’d be a lot more comfortable. The Mariners are forcing the issue now and the Astros have less time to tell struggling players, “I believe in you, son. Go get ‘em.” Get a LF that swings a good bat and he could also spend some time as DH if necessary |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jun 30, 2018 22:53:52 GMT -6
The pitching will be fine. Raisel Iglesias would be a good addition, but I’m with Todd about needing a proven bat, particularly for LF. It’s time to bail on Marwin, and we need insurance in case the role is too big for Tucker. I’m also never entirely sold on Gattis being the everyday option at DH. If they would solve one of those two positions, I’d be a lot more comfortable. The Mariners are forcing the issue now and the Astros have less time to tell struggling players, “I believe in you, son. Go get ‘em.” Get a LF that swings a good bat and he could also spend some time as DH if necessary That’ll do nicely. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 1, 2018 0:17:08 GMT -6
I'm all behind getting Iglesias. He's made 32 appearances this year and only let his team down (through a blown save or loss) three times.
He's got a 2.08 ERA currently and in the worst plausible case, it should only trend towards 3.50 or so. More likely, he finishes the year at around 2.80.
Abreu and Castellanos are looking good to boost the offense.
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Post by olpapa on Jul 1, 2018 6:59:44 GMT -6
I’m beginning to have reservations about trading for Brad Hand. He’s been getting knocked around lately. In his last 6 games he has allowed 7 ER on 10 hits in 5 innings pitched.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 1, 2018 7:07:52 GMT -6
I’m beginning to have reservations about trading for Brad Hand. He’s been getting knocked around lately. In his last 6 games he has allowed 7 ER on 10 hits in 5 innings pitched. In general, the big names on the trading block (Quintana a couple years ago, Cueto, Darvish, Hand & Britton today...) always make me skeptical the Astros should fork over a market price for those players. Usually, what you get is worth less than what you had to pay when you go for the superstar-du-jour. Often, the best trades are found among that second tier of trade targets, the well-above-average but not-quite-elite players like Castellanos and Treinen (to give a couple random examples). The price is usually reasonable (look at what the Gnats paid for Herrera) and if you've done your homework on who is likely to play well going forward, you likely won't be disappointed. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Jul 1, 2018 8:45:58 GMT -6
I’m beginning to have reservations about trading for Brad Hand. He’s been getting knocked around lately. In his last 6 games he has allowed 7 ER on 10 hits in 5 innings pitched. In general, the big names on the trading block (Quintana a couple years ago, Cueto, Darvish, Hand & Britton today...) always make me skeptical the Astros should fork over a market price for those players. Usually, what you get is worth less than what you had to pay when you go for the superstar-du-jour. Often, the best trades are found among that second tier of trade targets, the well-above-average but not-quite-elite players like Castellanos and Treinen (to give a couple random examples). The price is usually reasonable (look at what the Gnats paid for Herrera) and if you've done your homework on who is likely to play well going forward, you likely won't be disappointed. So far the A's have rejected any trade offers, Treinen is not available. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 1, 2018 8:55:48 GMT -6
I really don't think Treinen would be a good match for the Astros -- I was just trying to think of a player in that second-tier category. Stammen, Cimber, Ottavino, Soria, and Yates are some guys who could make very good additions at a cost the Astros farm system could stomach.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 1, 2018 9:36:32 GMT -6
I really don't think Treinen would be a good match for the Astros -- I was just trying to think of a player in that second-tier category. Stammen, Cimber, Ottavino, Soria, and Yates are some guys who could make very good additions at a cost the Astros farm system could stomach. Those would all be good acquisitions, though I wonder how much Joakim “The Mexicutioner” Soria has left in the tank. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 1, 2018 9:44:01 GMT -6
There are certain trade acquisitions the Astros should only want as a rental. Soria would be one of them.
Soria has compiled a 2.47 FIP and 0.9 WAR, which puts him 24th among qualified MLB relievers by WAR this season. In fact, the #23 is Hector Rondon. So for the Astros to have both the #23 and #24 relievers by WAR would be pretty strong.
Devenski is already #16 by WAR. That would give the Astros 3 relievers among the top 25.
Soria's future is really dicey of course -- this may be his Sipp 2015 year or something like that. Better not to treat him like an Iglesias candidate, who would potentially make sense to have around for a few years.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 1, 2018 9:46:18 GMT -6
There are certain trade acquisitions the Astros should only want as a rental. Soria would be one of them. Soria has compiled a 2.47 FIP and 0.9 WAR, which puts him 24th among qualified MLB relievers by WAR this season. In fact, the #23 is Hector Rondon. So for the Astros to have both the #23 and #24 relievers by WAR would be pretty strong. Devenski is already #16 by WAR. That would give the Astros 3 relievers among the top 25. Soria's future is really dicey of course -- this may be his Sipp 2015 year or something like that. Better not to treat him like an Iglesias candidate, who would potentially make sense to have around for a few years. Can they get Iglesias AND Votto and move Gurriel to DH? |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 1, 2018 9:50:30 GMT -6
Votto, like Trout, is a great hitter on a bad team. There are reasons to move both of them.
I definitely think it's possible to get both a reliever and a LF by July 31st. It isn't an either/or proposition. it only seems that way if we imagine Luhnow must trade for superstars-du-jour.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 1, 2018 9:59:11 GMT -6
Votto, like Trout, is a great hitter on a bad team. There are reasons to move both of them. I definitely think it's possible to get both a reliever and a LF by July 31st. It isn't an either/or proposition. it only seems that way if we imagine Luhnow must trade for superstars-du-jour. Votto is no Trout but he’s a damn good consolation prize. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 1, 2018 10:01:12 GMT -6
I’d rather have Votto than Iglesias to be honest. Relievers are so fickle (see: Felipe Rivero).
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 1, 2018 10:06:45 GMT -6
Rivero/Velazquez has a 2.32 FIP in spite of a higher ERA this season. He's likely to pitch the rest of the season more in line with his current FIP.
The Astros with Votto+Iglesias would be awesome indeed.
As NL players, it helps that the Yankees and Red Sox haven't faced those players much.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 1, 2018 10:09:51 GMT -6
Rivero/Velazquez has a 2.32 FIP in spite of a higher ERA this season. He's likely to pitch the rest of the season more in line with his current FIP. The Astros with Votto+Iglesias would be awesome indeed. As NL players, it helps that the Yankees and Red Sox haven't faced those players much. If Votto and/or Iglesias were netted without the subtraction of Whitley and/or Tucker, Cincinnati would be in flames. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 1, 2018 10:24:56 GMT -6
"Cincinnati in flames" is in Obama's plans already. Bringing Votto and Iglesias to the safety of the Republic of Texas would just be a humanitarian gesture in the interest of the game.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 1, 2018 10:43:56 GMT -6
There is some thinking that Billy Hamilton might be packaged into an Iglesias and/or Votto deal. If Hamilton came along, it would be pretty much purely for his speed, meaning he would replace Marisnick as the late-inning CF and pinch runner.
I could see, perhaps, Marisnick, Bukauskas, and Cionel Perez going over to the Reds for Iglesias and Hamilton.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 1, 2018 11:12:09 GMT -6
There is some thinking that Billy Hamilton might be packaged into an Iglesias and/or Votto deal. If Hamilton came along, it would be pretty much purely for his speed, meaning he would replace Marisnick as the late-inning CF and pinch runner. I could see, perhaps, Marisnick, Bukauskas, and Cionel Perez going over to the Reds for Iglesias and Hamilton. If you bring Hamilton here as a pinch runner/defensive replacement, then Marisnick would be useless here. Hamilton may not have the power, but his average is just as crappy and the defense is better than with Jake. |
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Post by abregmanfan on Jul 1, 2018 12:15:52 GMT -6
No way we could get Votto without giving up Whitley and Tucker.
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Post by thomasj13 on Jul 1, 2018 12:35:13 GMT -6
No way we could get Votto without giving up Whitley and Tucker. Yeah, not going to happen...Plus, for some reason, Votto wants to stay in Cincy, he can block any trade. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 2, 2018 6:07:55 GMT -6
I was just comparing Billy Hamilton's numbers to Marisnick's.
The most outstanding thing about Hamilton is his low GIDP risk. In 32 PAs with a risk of GIDP, he has only GIDP'd once (3% of the time). The league average is 11% of the time.
He ranks third in MLB in sprint speed. This year he has only stolen 15 bases though, well off pace for his 2917 total of 59.
Most of the defensive metrics show Hamilton as superior to Marisnick, at least in CF (Hamilton really hasn't played much corner outfield this year). Hamilton has a UZR (all-around defense) rating of 4.6 (vs 2.3 for Marisnick.
The computer reckons Hamilton's arm alone has saved his team 2.6 runs that the average CF would not have saved the Reds; whereas Marisnick's arm has actually cost the Astros 0.7 runs more than the average MLB CF would have cost the team.
While Hamilton has been a below-average hitter (around wRC+ of 70), he has actually been above-average (wRC+ of 134) when the defense employs a shift -- which they've done quite often oddly enough. It seems Hamilton has a peculiar ability to punch the ball towards holes in the shift, although with little power. That allows him to reach base, where of course he immediately becomes a threat to steal second.
Hamilton has 1.5 years left on his contract, whereas Jake has 2.5 years left.
It may make sense for both sides to swap Marisnick for Hamilton. Besides the salary relief, the Reds get a solid defensive CF who can see them through to their next window of contention around 2021, and the Astros get a defensive upgrade who will help lower the team's GIDP rate.
If the Reds require a non-elite prospect to accompany Marisnick in the deal, so be it; the Astros have lots of Rule 5 guys who are good but have no hope of making the active roster for Houston.
In spring training, Hinch spoke in admiration of Hamilton. It was weird enough to hear him praise another team's player, but it sounds like if given the chance, he would like to see Hamilton play for the Astros.
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Post by m240 on Jul 2, 2018 6:43:42 GMT -6
In general, the big names on the trading block (Quintana a couple years ago, Cueto, Darvish, Hand & Britton today...) always make me skeptical the Astros should fork over a market price for those players. Usually, what you get is worth less than what you had to pay when you go for the superstar-du-jour. Often, the best trades are found among that second tier of trade targets, the well-above-average but not-quite-elite players like Castellanos and Treinen (to give a couple random examples). The price is usually reasonable (look at what the Gnats paid for Herrera) and if you've done your homework on who is likely to play well going forward, you likely won't be disappointed. So far the A's have rejected any trade offers, Treinen is not available. The A's are playing some pretty good ball lately. Have you seen their record lately. They may be buyers, not sellers, at the deadline depending on how July goes for them. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jul 2, 2018 7:27:59 GMT -6
I was just comparing Billy Hamilton's numbers to Marisnick's. The most outstanding thing about Hamilton is his low GIDP risk. In 32 PAs with a risk of GIDP, he has only GIDP'd once (3% of the time). The league average is 11% of the time. He ranks third in MLB in sprint speed. This year he has only stolen 15 bases though, well off pace for his 2917 total of 59. Most of the defensive metrics show Hamilton as superior to Marisnick, at least in CF (Hamilton really hasn't played much corner outfield this year). Hamilton has a UZR (all-around defense) rating of 4.6 (vs 2.3 for Marisnick. The computer reckons Hamilton's arm alone has saved his team 2.6 runs that the average CF would not have saved the Reds; whereas Marisnick's arm has actually cost the Astros 0.7 runs more than the average MLB CF would have cost the team. While Hamilton has been a below-average hitter (around wRC+ of 70), he has actually been above-average (wRC+ of 134) when the defense employs a shift -- which they've done quite often oddly enough. It seems Hamilton has a peculiar ability to punch the ball towards holes in the shift, although with little power. That allows him to reach base, where of course he immediately becomes a threat to steal second. Hamilton has 1.5 years left on his contract, whereas Jake has 2.5 years left. It may make sense for both sides to swap Marisnick for Hamilton. Besides the salary relief, the Reds get a solid defensive CF who can see them through to their next window of contention around 2021, and the Astros get a defensive upgrade who will help lower the team's GIDP rate. If the Reds require a non-elite prospect to accompany Marisnick in the deal, so be it; the Astros have lots of Rule 5 guys who are good but have no hope of making the active roster for Houston. In spring training, Hinch spoke in admiration of Hamilton. It was weird enough to hear him praise another team's player, but it sounds like if given the chance, he would like to see Hamilton play for the Astros. If Hamilton isn’t at the Kiermaier/Buxton level of CF defense, he’s pretty damn close. If he’s used sparingly on offense and more utilized in a spot start/pinch runner/defensive replacement role, then who needs Marisnick? The Astros have more than enough power. |
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Post by m240 on Jul 2, 2018 7:40:52 GMT -6
I was just comparing Billy Hamilton's numbers to Marisnick's. The most outstanding thing about Hamilton is his low GIDP risk. In 32 PAs with a risk of GIDP, he has only GIDP'd once (3% of the time). The league average is 11% of the time. He ranks third in MLB in sprint speed. This year he has only stolen 15 bases though, well off pace for his 2917 total of 59. Most of the defensive metrics show Hamilton as superior to Marisnick, at least in CF (Hamilton really hasn't played much corner outfield this year). Hamilton has a UZR (all-around defense) rating of 4.6 (vs 2.3 for Marisnick. The computer reckons Hamilton's arm alone has saved his team 2.6 runs that the average CF would not have saved the Reds; whereas Marisnick's arm has actually cost the Astros 0.7 runs more than the average MLB CF would have cost the team. While Hamilton has been a below-average hitter (around wRC+ of 70), he has actually been above-average (wRC+ of 134) when the defense employs a shift -- which they've done quite often oddly enough. It seems Hamilton has a peculiar ability to punch the ball towards holes in the shift, although with little power. That allows him to reach base, where of course he immediately becomes a threat to steal second. Hamilton has 1.5 years left on his contract, whereas Jake has 2.5 years left. It may make sense for both sides to swap Marisnick for Hamilton. Besides the salary relief, the Reds get a solid defensive CF who can see them through to their next window of contention around 2021, and the Astros get a defensive upgrade who will help lower the team's GIDP rate. If the Reds require a non-elite prospect to accompany Marisnick in the deal, so be it; the Astros have lots of Rule 5 guys who are good but have no hope of making the active roster for Houston. In spring training, Hinch spoke in admiration of Hamilton. It was weird enough to hear him praise another team's player, but it sounds like if given the chance, he would like to see Hamilton play for the Astros. If Hamilton isn’t at the Kiermaier/Buxton level of CF defense, he’s pretty damn close. If he’s used sparingly on offense and more utilized in a spot start/pinch runner/defensive replacement role, then who needs Marisnick? The Astros have more than enough power. Speed puts a whole different kind of pressure on a defense. Imagine having Hamilton and Straw on the bases at the same time. A soft flyball to right might score both runners from 1st and 2nd. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 2, 2018 7:42:19 GMT -6
If Hamilton isn’t at the Kiermaier/Buxton level of CF defense, he’s pretty damn close. If he’s used sparingly on offense and more utilized in a spot start/pinch runner/defensive replacement role, then who needs Marisnick? The Astros have more than enough power. That's why I would think Marisnick would be going over to the Reds in any such deal. Hamilton is earning $4.6 million this year and will have his salary determined by arbitration next year. Overall, the team employing Hamilton will pay more than the team employing Marisnick next year, so it makes sense for a rebuilding club like Cinci to cut salary while also getting prospects who can support their rebuild. Hamilton grew up in Taylorsville, Mississippi, about 45 miles from Tony Sipp's hometown of Hattiesburg. It might be nice for Hamilton to have pal who grew up in his neck of the woods. Cinci's main need now is pitching (both SP and RP), and the Astros happen to have an overstock of minor leaguers at those positions. Something like Bukauskas + Cionel Perez + Jake Marisnick for Raisel Iglesias + Billy Hamilton sounds about right. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 2, 2018 7:43:45 GMT -6
Hamilton has the kind of speed that can net 60 stolen bases a year. Has any Astro had that kind of speed since Cedeno stole 61 bases in '77?
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Post by astrosdoug on Jul 2, 2018 7:48:02 GMT -6
I guess Bourn stole 61 in 2009, matching Cedeno's mark.
And then Joe Morgan, in 1975 and 1973, stole 67 bases in a year.
Hamilton might well get himself into the Astros Top 5 all-time on the Stolen Bases in a Season List though.
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