Keuchel

[ɮօʀȶǟʐ]

The last seven Dallas Keuchel starts:
5-0
45 IP
2.00 ERA

[blcoach8]

Let's hope the trend continues

[Saint]

Up to 8-8 with a 3.60 ERA (even better if Marwin hadn't shit in the pool last night).

Currently up to a 107 ERA+.

[abregmanfan]

Boras was probably getting on that ass.

[Saint]

Every win in this streak brings his worth up more of the market.

I think he'll get a 4-year 50+ mil deal.

[Deleted]

Jul 21, 2018 14:45:14 GMT -6 Saint said:

Every win in this streak brings his worth up more of the market.

I think he'll get a 4-year 50+ mil deal.

I would pay 4/50 for that guy.  4/80 I wouldn't

[blcoach8]

Jul 21, 2018 14:48:42 GMT -6 @jayfree5 said:

Jul 21, 2018 14:45:14 GMT -6 Saint said:

Every win in this streak brings his worth up more of the market.

I think he'll get a 4-year 50+ mil deal.

I would pay 4/50 for that guy.  4/80 I wouldn't

One year at $10 million plus incentives......take it or haul ass,

[Deleted]

Jul 21, 2018 15:25:25 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

Jul 21, 2018 14:48:42 GMT -6 @jayfree5 said:

I would pay 4/50 for that guy.  4/80 I wouldn't

One year at $10 million plus incentives......take it or haul ass,

LOL, Philly would offer him 4/60 in a heartbeat to get the two bearded Cy Youngs together.  There's no way he would risk signing another 1 year deal.

What I would fear is whoever signs him to a lucrative 4+ year deal would get 1 maybe 2 years of "decent" Keuchel and 2 years of "jackel and hyde" Keuchel

[unionstation82]

Jul 21, 2018 15:25:25 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

Jul 21, 2018 14:48:42 GMT -6 @jayfree5 said:

I would pay 4/50 for that guy.  4/80 I wouldn't

One year at $10 million plus incentives......take it or haul ass,

That offer better come with a U-Haul.

[thomasj13]

Jul 21, 2018 15:32:14 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

Jul 21, 2018 15:25:25 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

One year at $10 million plus incentives......take it or haul ass,

That offer better come with a U-Haul.

QO - and let him sign elsewhere...

[Saint]

Jul 21, 2018 15:50:00 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Jul 21, 2018 15:32:14 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

That offer better come with a U-Haul.

QO - and let him sign elsewhere...

This.

[Deleted]

Jul 21, 2018 15:50:00 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Jul 21, 2018 15:32:14 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

That offer better come with a U-Haul.

QO - and let him sign elsewhere...

So what does the QO end up being?  About $15 - 18M I am guessing.

[thomasj13]

Jul 22, 2018 9:26:33 GMT -6 @txheat10k said:

Jul 21, 2018 15:50:00 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

QO - and let him sign elsewhere...

So what does the QO end up being?  About $15 - 18M I am guessing.

I think $18M...I think on the open market, he will get 22 to 25M a year for about 4 years...and I don't foresee the Astros paying that, so $18M QO is probably what they will and should do.

[blcoach8]

Jul 21, 2018 15:32:14 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

Jul 21, 2018 15:25:25 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

One year at $10 million plus incentives......take it or haul ass,

That offer better come with a U-Haul.

It would.........with Giles loaded up to go with him. You have to wonder if the keuchel we have seen over his last 5 starts is the real deal or the one who started the season.

[blcoach8]

Jul 22, 2018 9:36:03 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Jul 22, 2018 9:26:33 GMT -6 @txheat10k said:

So what does the QO end up being?  About $15 - 18M I am guessing.

I think $18M...I think on the open market, he will get 22 to 25M a year for about 4 years...and I don't foresee the Astros paying that, so $18M QO is probably what they will and should do.

We have other options without overpaying to keep Keuchel.  We need to concentrate on keeping Correa, Springer, and Bregman........not an inconsistent pitcher.  If he can get 22-25 million, more power to him.  I admit a one-year, 10 million dollar deal with incentives was too low,but, for anyone to pay over 15 million they have to be desperate.  He has not been consistent enough to earn that.

[thomasj13]

Jul 22, 2018 10:43:58 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

Jul 22, 2018 9:36:03 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

I think $18M...I think on the open market, he will get 22 to 25M a year for about 4 years...and I don't foresee the Astros paying that, so $18M QO is probably what they will and should do.

We have other options without overpaying to keep Keuchel.  We need to concentrate on keeping Correa, Springer, and Bregman........not an inconsistent pitcher.  If he can get 22-25 million, more power to him.  I admit a one-year, 10 million dollar deal with incentives was too low,but, for anyone to pay over 15 million they have to be desperate.  He has not been consistent enough to earn that.

www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained/c-259650658

[blcoach8]

Jul 22, 2018 11:51:59 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Jul 22, 2018 10:43:58 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

We have other options without overpaying to keep Keuchel.  We need to concentrate on keeping Correa, Springer, and Bregman........not an inconsistent pitcher.  If he can get 22-25 million, more power to him.  I admit a one-year, 10 million dollar deal with incentives was too low,but, for anyone to pay over 15 million they have to be desperate.  He has not been consistent enough to earn that.

www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained/c-259650658

If I understand that article correctly, the QO this year is expected to be around $17.4 million. I can't see us giving Keuchel that much and I would agree if they don't.

[abregmanfan]

Jul 22, 2018 12:22:22 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

Jul 22, 2018 11:51:59 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained/c-259650658

If I understand that article correctly, the QO this year is expected to be around $17.4 million. I can't see us giving Keuchel that much and I would agree if they don't.

I would give him the QO. If he rejects we will get a high draft pick.

[thomasj13]

Jul 22, 2018 13:19:08 GMT -6 abregmanfan said:

Jul 22, 2018 12:22:22 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

If I understand that article correctly, the QO this year is expected to be around $17.4 million. I can't see us giving Keuchel that much and I would agree if they don't.

I would give him the QO. If he rejects we will get a high draft pick.

I agree, he is not going to take it anyway.

[blcoach8]

Jul 22, 2018 18:59:26 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Jul 22, 2018 13:19:08 GMT -6 abregmanfan said:

I would give him the QO. If he rejects we will get a high draft pick.

I agree, he is not going to take it anyway.

His not taking it probably depends on the other offers he has. As far as I know, he is happy in Houston and Verlander could play a role in whether he wants to stay.,

[thomasj13]

Jul 22, 2018 19:32:59 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

Jul 22, 2018 18:59:26 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

I agree, he is not going to take it anyway.

His not taking it probably depends on the other offers he has. As far as I know, he is happy in Houston and Verlander could play a role in whether he wants to stay.,

Astros make a QO before the offers begin.

[marshall]

The QO is the floor for the Astros to receive anything. If you think Keuchel is worth $14M, then you have to calculate what the value of the compensation pick is worth. If you think it's worth less than $3.5M then you don't make the QO. If you think it's worth more than $3.5M, then you do. The math is easy. It's the evaluation that's hard.

[thomasj13]

Jul 23, 2018 2:58:36 GMT -6 marshall said:

The QO is the floor for the Astros to receive anything. If you think Keuchel is worth $14M, then you have to calculate what the value of the compensation pick is worth. If you think it's worth less than $3.5M then you don't make the QO. If you think it's worth more than $3.5M, then you do. The math is easy. It's the evaluation that's hard.

I think it is a win, win if the Astros offer a Keuchel a QO
1. If he accepts then you didn't have to sign him to a large contract...and gives Astro more time to develop their minor league pitchers
2. If he declines then he will sign elsewhere, and the Astros receive draft compensation.

[unionstation82]

Offer Keuchel the QO. The money is not the issue; it’s the length of the contract that matters.

[marshall]

Jul 23, 2018 3:44:15 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

Offer Keuchel the QO. The money is not the issue; it’s the length of the contract that matters.

If the money doesn't matter, then you're discussing somebody else's money. Otherwise it does matter. You can overpay for anything in the physical realm, no matter how "good."

[unionstation82]

Jul 23, 2018 7:48:12 GMT -6 marshall said:

Jul 23, 2018 3:44:15 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

Offer Keuchel the QO. The money is not the issue; it’s the length of the contract that matters.

If the money doesn't matter, then you're discussing somebody else's money. Otherwise it does matter. You can overpay for anything in the physical realm, no matter how "good."

The money relative to his market value is what I am discussing. It is a lot of money, but owing that for one season as opposed to several is not that bad of a deal. I doubt Jim Crane is searching through his couch cushions for change so he can go buy a Whopper.

[Deleted]

Crane is ending up being a good owner in the risk/reward department.

I am in agreement with prior posters who stated that if Kuehel is signed, it is only for no more than two years. Crane starts fidgeting when numbers over $50M are discussed.

[blcoach8]

Jul 23, 2018 10:07:43 GMT -6 @txheat10k said:

Crane is ending up being a good owner in the risk/reward department.

I am in agreement with prior posters who stated that if Kuehel is signed, it is only for no more than two years. Crane starts fidgeting when numbers over $50M are discussed.

he won't spend that much to keep Keuchel.

[Saint]

Keuchel isn't going to accept a 1-year deal if he maintains his current pace. He won't get a better shot at a multi-year deal than he will this offseason. It's a no-brainer to offer him the QO.

[blcoach8]

Jul 23, 2018 13:51:10 GMT -6 Saint said:

Keuchel isn't going to accept a 1-year deal if he maintains his current pace. He won't get a better shot at a multi-year deal than he will this offseason. It's a no-brainer to offer him the QO.

That depends on the amount