Keuchel

[blcoach8]

Oct 9, 2018 18:03:52 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Oct 9, 2018 17:58:40 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

Every one of us appreciated him in ‘14 and ‘15 and parts of each season since. Keuchel will want to be paid like those first seasons I mentioned. Good luck to him.

A 1 year QO would be good, a multi-year deal is not good

*****

[blcoach8]

Oct 9, 2018 18:06:12 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

Oct 9, 2018 18:05:40 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Now Verlander,I would hope he would be interested in a two-year deal (2/50M) with a third-year option after next season.

What about Cole?

I'd offer that to Cole and Verlander.  We need to keep Morton, if possible.

[thomasj13]

Oct 9, 2018 18:06:12 GMT -6 unionstation82 said:

Oct 9, 2018 18:05:40 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

Now Verlander,I would hope he would be interested in a two-year deal (2/50M) with a third-year option after next season.

What about Cole?

Heck yeah on Cole.....but he is going to be a multi-year deal....5 years, 135 Million/ 6 years, 150 Million type of deals....but at least that would only carry him until he is 34/35....big gamble....

I am still hoping Morton re-signs, and I still like your original deal to put him in the bullpen...maybe one more year as a starter, 2019, and then transition him over to the closer...he definitely has the stuff for it....2020 and 2021...that might be better suited for him given his age and history of injuries...

[thomasj13]

Oct 9, 2018 19:28:09 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

Oct 9, 2018 18:03:52 GMT -6 thomasj13 said:

A 1 year QO would be good, a multi-year deal is not good

*****

 A multi-year for Keuchel is way too risky....I don't see him being even a #3 grade pitcher in 3 years or 4 years from now...I think he has about a 2 year window, before he really starts to decline....Offer him the QO, and you can't lose if he takes it or not....

[m240]

Giving Keuchel and Morton a QO is an easy yes call.  I doubt that Keuchel takes it, I think Morton will either sign a multi year deal or the QO.  

[Saint]

Final update.

76-63 3.66 ERA (108 ERA+)
4 Gold Gloves
2 AS Appearances
1 CY
1 Top-5 MVP Finish

Average season: 11-9 170 IP at an average rate of $6 million a season.

Astros postseason career:

4-2 3.31 ERA 1.142 WHIP

[bearbryant]

Nov 14, 2018 14:06:03 GMT -6 Saint said:

Final update.

76-63 3.66 ERA (108 ERA+)
4 Gold Gloves
2 AS Appearances
1 CY
1 Top-5 MVP Finish

Average season: 11-9 170 IP at an average rate of $6 million a season.

Astros postseason career:

4-2 3.31 ERA 1.142 WHIP

Keuchel was like a polished Bob Knepper. And he didn't piss off the National Organization for Women to boot

[Saint]

Nov 14, 2018 14:38:34 GMT -6 bearbryant said:

Nov 14, 2018 14:06:03 GMT -6 Saint said:

Final update.

76-63 3.66 ERA (108 ERA+)
4 Gold Gloves
2 AS Appearances
1 CY
1 Top-5 MVP Finish

Average season: 11-9 170 IP at an average rate of $6 million a season.

Astros postseason career:

4-2 3.31 ERA 1.142 WHIP

Keuchel was like a polished Bob Knepper. And he didn't piss off the National Organization for Women to boot

I'd put him in a tier above Knepper but pretty similar in many regards.

[blcoach8]

Nov 14, 2018 14:38:34 GMT -6 bearbryant said:

Nov 14, 2018 14:06:03 GMT -6 Saint said:

Final update.

76-63 3.66 ERA (108 ERA+)
4 Gold Gloves
2 AS Appearances
1 CY
1 Top-5 MVP Finish

Average season: 11-9 170 IP at an average rate of $6 million a season.

Astros postseason career:

4-2 3.31 ERA 1.142 WHIP

Keuchel was like a polished Bob Knepper. And he didn't piss off the National Organization for Women to boot

I'd say that pissing off the nuts in the NOW went in Knepper's favor.

[Deleted]

Nov 14, 2018 14:06:03 GMT -6 Saint said:

Final update.

76-63 3.66 ERA (108 ERA+)
4 Gold Gloves
2 AS Appearances
1 CY
1 Top-5 MVP Finish

Average season: 11-9 170 IP at an average rate of $6 million a season.

Astros postseason career:

4-2 3.31 ERA 1.142 WHIP

Pretty underwhelmng considering Mr. Kuechel is seeking "elite" money.

[m240]

Nov 16, 2018 5:56:36 GMT -6 @txheat10k said:

Nov 14, 2018 14:06:03 GMT -6 Saint said:

Final update.

76-63 3.66 ERA (108 ERA+)
4 Gold Gloves
2 AS Appearances
1 CY
1 Top-5 MVP Finish

Average season: 11-9 170 IP at an average rate of $6 million a season.

Astros postseason career:

4-2 3.31 ERA 1.142 WHIP

Pretty underwhelmng considering Mr. Kuechel is seeking "elite" money.

He is the modern day Glavine, at least to Boras he is.  

[Saint]

Nov 16, 2018 5:56:36 GMT -6 @txheat10k said:

Nov 14, 2018 14:06:03 GMT -6 Saint said:

Final update.

76-63 3.66 ERA (108 ERA+)
4 Gold Gloves
2 AS Appearances
1 CY
1 Top-5 MVP Finish

Average season: 11-9 170 IP at an average rate of $6 million a season.

Astros postseason career:

4-2 3.31 ERA 1.142 WHIP

Pretty underwhelmng considering Mr. Kuechel is seeking "elite" money.

Well that includes his first two seasons when he had an ERA well over 5.00.  Since he became a full-time part of the rotation in 2014 and he is 67-45 with a 3.28 ERA.  That is considered pretty damn good. Most teams aren't going to worry much about his rookie and sophomore seasons.  Even Glavine was 9-21 with a 4.76 ERA his first two seasons.

[Saint]

So nobody here makes their resumes look as good as possible when seeking employment? Or tries to make their performance look as good as possible for reviews? Boras is just trying to get as much as he can for his client, it's not like Keuchel is out there telling people he deserves a Harper contract.

[blcoach8]

Nov 16, 2018 8:29:34 GMT -6 Saint said:

So nobody here makes their resumes look as good as possible when seeking employment? Or tries to make their performance look as good as possible for reviews? Boras is just trying to get as much as he can for his client, it's not like Keuchel is out there telling people he deserves a Harper contract.

After taking "rests" on the DL during the two years prior to his walk year, I predicted Keuchel would stay off the DL this year to make his resume look good.  I understand trying to get players all they are worth but, Boras usually wants a lot more than they are worth and that will be the case with Keuchel. He isn't worth a dime over $15 million a season.

[Saint]

Nov 16, 2018 9:01:13 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

Nov 16, 2018 8:29:34 GMT -6 Saint said:

So nobody here makes their resumes look as good as possible when seeking employment? Or tries to make their performance look as good as possible for reviews? Boras is just trying to get as much as he can for his client, it's not like Keuchel is out there telling people he deserves a Harper contract.

After taking "rests" on the DL during the two years prior to his walk year, I predicted Keuchel would stay off the DL this year to make his resume look good.  I understand trying to get players all they are worth but, Boras usually wants a lot more than they are worth and that will be the case with Keuchel. He isn't worth a dime over $15 million a season.

Most players miss times to rest instead of aggravating potential injuries.  Better to rest and heal then damage something and miss even more time.  Wouldn't you agree?  It's not like this was his first year of 200+ IP. 

[blcoach8]

Nov 16, 2018 9:04:11 GMT -6 Saint said:

Nov 16, 2018 9:01:13 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

After taking "rests" on the DL during the two years prior to his walk year, I predicted Keuchel would stay off the DL this year to make his resume look good.  I understand trying to get players all they are worth but, Boras usually wants a lot more than they are worth and that will be the case with Keuchel. He isn't worth a dime over $15 million a season.

Most players miss times to rest instead of aggravating potential injuries.  Better to rest and heal then damage something and miss even more time.  Wouldn't you agree?  It's not like this was his first year of 200+ IP. 

If there is an actual injury, I agree with missing time, but, when the club is talking about protecting pitcher by limiting their work load and then they show up on the DL for no apparent reason, that's another story.

[Deleted]

Nov 16, 2018 8:27:37 GMT -6 Saint said:

Nov 16, 2018 5:56:36 GMT -6 @txheat10k said:

Pretty underwhelmng considering Mr. Kuechel is seeking "elite" money.

Well that includes his first two seasons when he had an ERA well over 5.00.  Since he became a full-time part of the rotation in 2014 and he is 67-45 with a 3.28 ERA.  That is considered pretty damn good. Most teams aren't going to worry much about his rookie and sophomore seasons.  Even Glavine was 9-21 with a 4.76 ERA his first two seasons.

I'd totally  agree  on those points if he had been impeccably  consistently good.  


Don't forget

(1) he was 9-12 with a 4 1/2 era in '16.  
(2) 12-11 this year with a 3.74 era rates a tad better than mediocre.


He doesn't deserve elite money. (IMO)

[Saint]

Nov 16, 2018 9:12:37 GMT -6 @txheat10k said:

Nov 16, 2018 8:27:37 GMT -6 Saint said:

Well that includes his first two seasons when he had an ERA well over 5.00.  Since he became a full-time part of the rotation in 2014 and he is 67-45 with a 3.28 ERA.  That is considered pretty damn good. Most teams aren't going to worry much about his rookie and sophomore seasons.  Even Glavine was 9-21 with a 4.76 ERA his first two seasons.

I'd totally  agree  on those points if he had been impeccably  consistently good.  


Don't forget

(1) he was 9-12 with a 4 1/2 era in '16.  
(2) 12-11 this year with a 3.74 era rates a tad better than mediocre.


He doesn't deserve elite money. (IMO)

Also don't forget that he was pitching with neck issues in 2016.  So since his sophomore season he has had one below average year due to health issues.  Every other year has been good to great.  That doesn't deserve elite money (and he won't get elite money), but it's certainly worth $15-20 a year for 3-5 years compared to what other similar pitchers have been getting. 

P.S. Most players have a down year or two during their careers.  (Even Verlander)  Normally that isn't held against them when looking at their whole body of work. 

[Saint]

Nov 16, 2018 9:08:23 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

Nov 16, 2018 9:04:11 GMT -6 Saint said:

Most players miss times to rest instead of aggravating potential injuries.  Better to rest and heal then damage something and miss even more time.  Wouldn't you agree?  It's not like this was his first year of 200+ IP. 

If there is an actual injury, I agree with missing time, but, when the club is talking about protecting pitcher by limiting their work load and then they show up on the DL for no apparent reason, that's another story.

I see...  So you don't believe that sore players should rest sometimes instead of creating injuries or making injuries worse.  Got it. 

[Saint]

As for Boras comparing Keuchel to Glavine (and I'm not saying Keuchel is as good as Glavine or close to it), you can understand the comparison if you look at their numbers:

1st 7 years:

Keuchel: 3.66 ERA 108 ERA+ 1.250 WHIP 11-9 average season with 170 IP 945 SO 2.76 SO/BB
Glavine: 3.53 ERA 109 ERA+ 1.280 WHIP 14-9 average season with 194 IP 764 SO 1.72 SO/BB

Obviously Glavine threw more innings (like most pitchers in that time period) and was on a team that won more games, but the field-adjusted ERA, the WHIP, strikeout numbers, etc. are all very similar for their first 7 seasons.

[ɮօʀȶǟʐ]

Nov 16, 2018 8:29:34 GMT -6 Saint said:

So nobody here makes their resumes look as good as possible when seeking employment? Or tries to make their performance look as good as possible for reviews? Boras is just trying to get as much as he can for his client, it's not like Keuchel is out there telling people he deserves a Harper contract.

There are two parts to the equation, though.

I don't have any problems with that end of the equation trying to sell high on his client. I just hope that our end of the equation doesn't fall for the padded resume. 

I am not opposed to offering Dallas an intelligent contract (intelligent for both sides), but I do not want them to overpay him and miss out on any potential upgrades that may be available.

[Saint]

Nov 16, 2018 10:03:47 GMT -6 ɮօʀȶǟʐ said:

Nov 16, 2018 8:29:34 GMT -6 Saint said:

So nobody here makes their resumes look as good as possible when seeking employment? Or tries to make their performance look as good as possible for reviews? Boras is just trying to get as much as he can for his client, it's not like Keuchel is out there telling people he deserves a Harper contract.

There are two parts to the equation, though.

I don't have any problems with that end of the equation trying to sell high on his client. I just hope that our end of the equation doesn't fall for the padded resume. 

I am not opposed to offering Dallas an intelligent contract (intelligent for both sides), but I do not want them to overpay him and miss out on any potential upgrades that may be available.

And that is a completely logical and reasonable opinion that I share. But just because we aren't in need of his services compared to other holes, doesn't mean he isn't worth what he is likely going to get from teams not as deep in their rotation as us.

[Deleted]

Nov 16, 2018 10:16:29 GMT -6 Saint said:

Nov 16, 2018 10:03:47 GMT -6 ɮօʀȶǟʐ said:

There are two parts to the equation, though.

I don't have any problems with that end of the equation trying to sell high on his client. I just hope that our end of the equation doesn't fall for the padded resume. 

I am not opposed to offering Dallas an intelligent contract (intelligent for both sides), but I do not want them to overpay him and miss out on any potential upgrades that may be available.

And that is a completely logical and reasonable opinion that I share. But just because we aren't in need of his services compared to other holes, doesn't mean he isn't worth what he is likely going to get from teams not as deep in their rotation as us.

Don't ask me why, but I have a suspicion that Bora$$ is going to get NYY to overpay for Kuechel.  JUST based on his success against them.

[Saint]

Nov 16, 2018 10:24:29 GMT -6 @txheat10k said:

Nov 16, 2018 10:16:29 GMT -6 Saint said:

And that is a completely logical and reasonable opinion that I share. But just because we aren't in need of his services compared to other holes, doesn't mean he isn't worth what he is likely going to get from teams not as deep in their rotation as us.

Don't ask me why, but I have a suspicion that Bora$$ is going to get NYY to overpay for Kuechel.  JUST based on his success against them.

Probably.  But they DO really need some proven rotation depth even if it isn't necessarily an ace.  I think they go after two legit starting pitchers this offseason.  It's all they really need given how good and young most of their offense is. 

[ɮօʀȶǟʐ]

Is Corbin the consensus best arm available in FA?

[Saint]

Yes.  His most recent work is superior to Keuchel's and he is a little younger, but Keuchel has had better overall durability over his career.

[bearbryant]

Nov 16, 2018 10:24:29 GMT -6 @txheat10k said:

Nov 16, 2018 10:16:29 GMT -6 Saint said:

And that is a completely logical and reasonable opinion that I share. But just because we aren't in need of his services compared to other holes, doesn't mean he isn't worth what he is likely going to get from teams not as deep in their rotation as us.

Don't ask me why, but I have a suspicion that Bora$$ is going to get NYY to overpay for Kuechel.  JUST based on his success against them.

It's not uncommon for lefty starters to get overpaid. Barry Zito got one of the most memorably exorbitant free agent contracts and he's still pretty well-liked in the Bay area despite

[unionstation82]

Nov 16, 2018 10:03:47 GMT -6 ɮօʀȶǟʐ said:

Nov 16, 2018 8:29:34 GMT -6 Saint said:

So nobody here makes their resumes look as good as possible when seeking employment? Or tries to make their performance look as good as possible for reviews? Boras is just trying to get as much as he can for his client, it's not like Keuchel is out there telling people he deserves a Harper contract.

There are two parts to the equation, though.

I don't have any problems with that end of the equation trying to sell high on his client. I just hope that our end of the equation doesn't fall for the padded resume. 

I am not opposed to offering Dallas an intelligent contract (intelligent for both sides), but I do not want them to overpay him and miss out on any potential upgrades that may be available.

Well said.

[blcoach8]

Nov 16, 2018 9:48:04 GMT -6 Saint said:

Nov 16, 2018 9:08:23 GMT -6 blcoach8 said:

If there is an actual injury, I agree with missing time, but, when the club is talking about protecting pitcher by limiting their work load and then they show up on the DL for no apparent reason, that's another story.

I see...  So you don't believe that sore players should rest sometimes instead of creating injuries or making injuries worse.  Got it. 

Lots of guys play with soreness and injuries are not created because of it.  We have no way of knowing if Keuchel would have been injured if he had pitched with soreness.  I don't believe a guy should spend 6 weeks or more on the DL with "soreness" or "discomfort".  I also don't believe the club should withhold the truth and keep making excuses for the player.   Frankly, I'm sick of Keuchel and hope he moves on.

[thomasj13]

Nov 16, 2018 10:40:20 GMT -6 ɮօʀȶǟʐ said:

Is Corbin the consensus best arm available in FA?

I would think so.....I would say Morton as well, but not with the uncertainty of his shoulder...Keuchel is 2nd on the list.