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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2019 20:58:09 GMT -6
Hidalgo bomb off Randy Wolf.
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 18, 2019 21:19:26 GMT -6
"Doggie" turned into a dog right after signing that huge contract.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 18, 2019 22:55:18 GMT -6
Does anyone seriously want Marwin back? This offseason is a headscratcher. oh, not particularly. We can do better but we could also do a lot worse. I'd sure as hell rather sign him that trade for Frazier or some other dud. I wonder how serious we have negotiated with the Tigers for Castellanos and Fulmer, although I would think the price for Fulmer is high and I am not sure they really want to trade him. The goal is to go forward, not backwards. Re-signing Marwin when they’ve got other fish to fry is the latter. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 18, 2019 22:56:37 GMT -6
How do you feel about moving to the AL now? A World Series championship can change a lot of opinions. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 18, 2019 22:57:29 GMT -6
oh, not particularly. We can do better but we could also do a lot worse. I'd sure as hell rather sign him that trade for Frazier or some other dud. I wonder how serious we have negotiated with the Tigers for Castellanos and Fulmer, although I would think the price for Fulmer is high and I am not sure they really want to trade him. The goal is to go forward, not backwards. Re-signing Marwin when they’ve got other fish to fry is the latter. Some of the fish that needs frying are pitchers. We need to catch a couple. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 18, 2019 23:09:40 GMT -6
You are right.......I got that one wrong. Keeping either of those over Abreu was a mistake. In hindsight it was the wrong move, but Hidalgo did have a 40+ homer and 100+ rbi season before we made that decision. Just checked in 2000 he had 44 homers and 122 rbis. Pretty solid but his number went WAY down after that season. You can’t blame anyone for thinking he was the real deal after that season. He also had a cannon for an arm out there in RF. He had “franchise player” written all over him. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 18, 2019 23:10:14 GMT -6
The goal is to go forward, not backwards. Re-signing Marwin when they’ve got other fish to fry is the latter. Some of the fish that needs frying are pitchers. We need to catch a couple. Agreed. I was let down when Ottavino got signed. |
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marshall
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Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
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Post by marshall on Jan 19, 2019 0:33:19 GMT -6
How do you feel about moving to the AL now? A World Series championship can change a lot of opinions. A lot, but not all. I hate this fascination with the DH which violates the cardinal difference between baseball and football. I like complete players over specialists. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 0:59:50 GMT -6
Question for JustInTime (and anybody else who's been following this pitcher) --
What is your impression of reliever Joe Jimenez?
I expect to see him back in the ASG this year if he can keep his velocity up. He's a pitcher I wouldn't mind seeing on the Astros one day, but any thought of trading JJ is probably a few years away in the collective mind of the Tigers FO (I would think).
JJ ran into some trouble in the second half of 2018, looked like maybe he had been overused perhaps in the first half, but then he finished strong in September.
He's someone who looks like he could throw ~70 innings of sub-3.00 ERA ball for his team every year for the next 5 years or so.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 2:26:12 GMT -6
One option for the Astros at C (if the FO just doesn't think Chirinos/Stassi will give the team what it needs for another championship) might be to trade Reddick and Stassi to the Giants in exchange for Buster Posey.
The Giants are eager to dump salary, and Posey is owed $21.4 million/year over the next 3 years in comparison with Reddick's $13 million/year over the next 2 years. That would allow SFG to clear over $8 million/year from their books in the near term. They'd lose a fan favorite, but it doesn't look like the Giants will be making the postseason while Posey is still on their roster anyway, and they desperately need to improve their desert of an outfield. By adding Stassi, the Giants probably lose around 1 WAR at the C position, but with Reddick they gain 2 or 3 WAR in their OF, so overall they are an improved team for their fans.
The Astros would get an upgrade at C, moving Chirinos to a backup position where he probably belongs, and Posey would be the type of veteran you could feel confident taking to the postseason. Yes, he would cost the payroll an extra $8 million/year in 2019-20, but the added value might be worth it.
Maybe this move would limit the club too much in 2021, when it would feel the full brunt of the Posey's pricetag. But, if Posey could be pencilled in from now till 2021, that would give the team time to figure out which of Ritchie/Stubbs/Perry/Robinson can stick in the big leagues, and Posey would make a great mentor to them.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 3:02:20 GMT -6
By a strange quirk of fate, Stassi and Posey already have something of a connection.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2019 5:04:17 GMT -6
How do you feel about moving to the AL now? A World Series championship can change a lot of opinions. Not all of them. F Selig and McLane |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 6:40:41 GMT -6
Just thinking about what relievers might make worthy trade targets this year (either for the off season or by the July 31 deadline). The only 2 pitchers on this list I really wouldn't want to see join the Astros are Nate Jones and Mark Melancon. Everyone else could make sense under the right circumstances. A lot will depend on what kind of first half these pitchers have, and where their teams are in the standings by late July.  |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 6:44:19 GMT -6
That table gives 12 data points on each pitcher, with each point representing an average of what that player produced over the 2017 and 2018 seasons.
The Score (12-point scale) on the right is just a tally of how many of those dozen data points came in better than average for the table. It's not NASA-precise, but it gives a rough idea of how these relievers stack up against one another.
Tim Hill is a very interesting case, a lefty submariner with an incredible groundball rate. His stuff is so weird as it comes to the plate that at one point last year, he was leading the majors in pitches over the strike zone that got called balls, simply because his stuff was fooling the umpires. Hill is one of the pitchers likely to fare a lot better with an electronic strike zone.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 19, 2019 9:23:13 GMT -6
A World Series championship can change a lot of opinions. A lot, but not all. I hate this fascination with the DH which violates the cardinal difference between baseball and football. I like complete players over specialists. It’s the cards you’ve been dealt. Adjust or wilt. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 19, 2019 9:49:46 GMT -6
A lot, but not all. I hate this fascination with the DH which violates the cardinal difference between baseball and football. I like complete players over specialists. It’s the cards you’ve been dealt. Adjust or wilt. I've adjusted to griping about it.
ALL baseball used wooden bats and there was no DH when I started following baseball. I love the baseball of my youth.
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 19, 2019 10:03:47 GMT -6
Question for JustInTime (and anybody else who's been following this pitcher) -- What is your impression of reliever Joe Jimenez? I expect to see him back in the ASG this year if he can keep his velocity up. He's a pitcher I wouldn't mind seeing on the Astros one day, but any thought of trading JJ is probably a few years away in the collective mind of the Tigers FO (I would think). JJ ran into some trouble in the second half of 2018, looked like maybe he had been overused perhaps in the first half, but then he finished strong in September. He's someone who looks like he could throw ~70 innings of sub-3.00 ERA ball for his team every year for the next 5 years or so. Potential to be good, but we've seen that before and been disappointed. Does the name Bruce Rondon ring a bell? Joe Jimmy doesn't have that kind of velocity but he does have better control. I'd like to think he'll get it figured out soon, but who knows? I could see the Tigers trading him as soon as next winter, if he performs well enough to merit a strong return. He'll still be minimum-wage for the 2020 season so there's no rush to cash in.
As a Tigers fan, I've become jaded when it comes to relief pitchers. I've seen them piss away plenty of money on washed up veterans who didn't work out.
Shane Greene might be on the table at the deadline this year if he can get back on track. Looked good in 2017. He was awful in 2018. I think it's swim or sink for Shane this year.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 10:20:15 GMT -6
Question for JustInTime (and anybody else who's been following this pitcher) -- What is your impression of reliever Joe Jimenez? I expect to see him back in the ASG this year if he can keep his velocity up. He's a pitcher I wouldn't mind seeing on the Astros one day, but any thought of trading JJ is probably a few years away in the collective mind of the Tigers FO (I would think). JJ ran into some trouble in the second half of 2018, looked like maybe he had been overused perhaps in the first half, but then he finished strong in September. He's someone who looks like he could throw ~70 innings of sub-3.00 ERA ball for his team every year for the next 5 years or so. Potential to be good, but we've seen that before and been disappointed. Does the name Bruce Rondon ring a bell? Joe Jimmy doesn't have that kind of velocity but he does have better control. I'd like to think he'll get it figured out soon, but who knows? I could see the Tigers trading him as soon as next winter, if he performs well enough to merit a strong return. He'll still be minimum-wage for the 2020 season so there's no rush to cash in.
As a Tigers fan, I've become jaded when it comes to relief pitchers. I've seen them piss away plenty of money on washed up veterans who didn't work out.
Shane Greene might be on the table at the deadline this year if he can get back on track. Looked good in 2017. He was awful in 2018. I think it's swim or sink for Shane this year.
Thanks for the perspective on JJ. It's true, relievers are often wildly unpredictable from year to year. I remember when Warwick Saupold had a really great first half to the 2017 season for Detroit, and then just lost it in the second half. I was really hoping one of the Aussie pitchers would cement himself as a top MLB reliever, but it wasn't to be. Last I checked, Saupold had gone back to pitching in KangarooLand. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 19, 2019 11:04:12 GMT -6
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Post by paastrosfan on Jan 19, 2019 16:26:42 GMT -6
One option for the Astros at C (if the FO just doesn't think Chirinos/Stassi will give the team what it needs for another championship) might be to trade Reddick and Stassi to the Giants in exchange for Buster Posey. The Giants are eager to dump salary, and Posey is owed $21.4 million/year over the next 3 years in comparison with Reddick's $13 million/year over the next 2 years. That would allow SFG to clear over $8 million/year from their books in the near term. They'd lose a fan favorite, but it doesn't look like the Giants will be making the postseason while Posey is still on their roster anyway, and they desperately need to improve their desert of an outfield. By adding Stassi, the Giants probably lose around 1 WAR at the C position, but with Reddick they gain 2 or 3 WAR in their OF, so overall they are an improved team for their fans. The Astros would get an upgrade at C, moving Chirinos to a backup position where he probably belongs, and Posey would be the type of veteran you could feel confident taking to the postseason. Yes, he would cost the payroll an extra $8 million/year in 2019-20, but the added value might be worth it. Maybe this move would limit the club too much in 2021, when it would feel the full brunt of the Posey's pricetag. But, if Posey could be pencilled in from now till 2021, that would give the team time to figure out which of Ritchie/Stubbs/Perry/Robinson can stick in the big leagues, and Posey would make a great mentor to them. The Giants fell into the same trap the Phillies did at the turn of the decade, giving out big contracts when they were on a running away with the NL East. A guy like Posey might be viewing his best years in the rear view mirror. It would be interesting to see Giant fan reaction if he is involved in a trade. The would also go for MadBum. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 19, 2019 16:57:58 GMT -6
One option for the Astros at C (if the FO just doesn't think Chirinos/Stassi will give the team what it needs for another championship) might be to trade Reddick and Stassi to the Giants in exchange for Buster Posey. The Giants are eager to dump salary, and Posey is owed $21.4 million/year over the next 3 years in comparison with Reddick's $13 million/year over the next 2 years. That would allow SFG to clear over $8 million/year from their books in the near term. They'd lose a fan favorite, but it doesn't look like the Giants will be making the postseason while Posey is still on their roster anyway, and they desperately need to improve their desert of an outfield. By adding Stassi, the Giants probably lose around 1 WAR at the C position, but with Reddick they gain 2 or 3 WAR in their OF, so overall they are an improved team for their fans. The Astros would get an upgrade at C, moving Chirinos to a backup position where he probably belongs, and Posey would be the type of veteran you could feel confident taking to the postseason. Yes, he would cost the payroll an extra $8 million/year in 2019-20, but the added value might be worth it. Maybe this move would limit the club too much in 2021, when it would feel the full brunt of the Posey's pricetag. But, if Posey could be pencilled in from now till 2021, that would give the team time to figure out which of Ritchie/Stubbs/Perry/Robinson can stick in the big leagues, and Posey would make a great mentor to them. Uh. No. He's way overpriced for a 31 year old CATCHER with a 108 OPS+ last year. They'd need to send $8M/yr with him to even begin discussions. But that means they won't get much relief while sending away a fan favorite. I wouldn't spent 1 cent more for the services of Posey than Reddick so that's where I get the $8M/yr minimum they'd have to send with him. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 17:26:01 GMT -6
To a large extent, Posey's value over these last 3 years of his contract will depend on how effective his hip surgery (which he had in September) was. Throughout 2018, he was hitting with a bad hip and that sapped his power, although the batting avg was largely still there (.282).
If the surgery went well, I would expect his SLG to rebound to about .420, and that should make him something like a 115 OPS+ player in 2019. From that point, I could see him gently declining to 112 OPS+ in 2020 and 108 in 2021. If he produced at those levels, a Reddick/Stassi trade for Posey might make sense if SF kicks in about $10 million in salary relief for the 2021 season.
I don't think this would be the preferred way for the Astros to go at C. I just think it should be an option to consider alongside "stand pat", "trade for Realmuto", and other options like "think about getting Cervelli at the deadline".
Fans can sometimes be their own worst enemy. Right now, SF's biggest on-field problem for 2019 is its joke of an outfield. They could literally bring over the Astros set OF of Marisnick/Kemp/Reddick and be much improved in that department. On the return, some combination of Will Smith, Tony Watson, and Posey would improve the Astros in areas where the team currently has a relative weakness.
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Post by paastrosfan on Jan 19, 2019 17:46:26 GMT -6
To a large extent, Posey's value over these last 3 years of his contract will depend on how effective his hip surgery (which he had in September) was. Throughout 2018, he was hitting with a bad hip and that sapped his power, although the batting avg was largely still there (.282). If the surgery went well, I would expect his SLG to rebound to about .420, and that should make him something like a 115 OPS+ player in 2019. From that point, I could see him gently declining to 112 OPS+ in 2020 and 108 in 2021. If he produced at those levels, a Reddick/Stassi trade for Posey might make sense if SF kicks in about $10 million in salary relief for the 2021 season. I don't think this would be the preferred way for the Astros to go at C. I just think it should be an option to consider alongside "stand pat", "trade for Realmuto", and other options like "think about getting Cervelli at the deadline". Fans can sometimes be their own worst enemy. Right now, SF's biggest on-field problem for 2019 is its joke of an outfield. They could literally bring over the Astros set OF of Marisnick/Kemp/Reddick and be much improved in that department. On the return, some combination of Will Smith, Tony Watson, and Posey would improve the Astros in areas where the team currently has a relative weakness. After Posey's original knee injury the future was looking for him as a future first baseman. You mentioned the hip injury surgery, in the catching position would lead to more repetitions on the hip than a 1st base. Good future projections you mentioned, look how the hip problem led to the end of ARod as a power player. |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Jan 19, 2019 17:52:42 GMT -6
To a large extent, Posey's value over these last 3 years of his contract will depend on how effective his hip surgery (which he had in September) was. Throughout 2018, he was hitting with a bad hip and that sapped his power, although the batting avg was largely still there (.282). If the surgery went well, I would expect his SLG to rebound to about .420, and that should make him something like a 115 OPS+ player in 2019. From that point, I could see him gently declining to 112 OPS+ in 2020 and 108 in 2021. If he produced at those levels, a Reddick/Stassi trade for Posey might make sense if SF kicks in about $10 million in salary relief for the 2021 season. I don't think this would be the preferred way for the Astros to go at C. I just think it should be an option to consider alongside "stand pat", "trade for Realmuto", and other options like "think about getting Cervelli at the deadline". Fans can sometimes be their own worst enemy. Right now, SF's biggest on-field problem for 2019 is its joke of an outfield. They could literally bring over the Astros set OF of Marisnick/Kemp/Reddick and be much improved in that department. On the return, some combination of Will Smith, Tony Watson, and Posey would improve the Astros in areas where the team currently has a relative weakness. If we only talk about players, there is a good match. But Value tends to get in the way. Posey is over payed and worth about 8M/yr less than what he's paid. Therefore, the giants need to send money without any return at all. Our prospects are making less than they're worth and so the Giants need to send money to get them. So it's the right players, but the Giants are looking to decrease payroll, not add to it.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 17:54:50 GMT -6
That's good to know Saupold still has a job in some form of pro ball. Should be an interesting life experience for him. Maybe Evan Gattis can join him. Although, a Mets site has recently suggested signing Gattis as a one-year fill-in for Cespedes. macksmets.blogspot.com/2019/01/reese-kaplan-value-picks-in-fa.html I'd love to see the Oso Blanco get a MLB job this year but if it doesn't happen, something like Korea/Japan could be a good way to play ball, make money, and see the world all at the same time. |
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Post by paastrosfan on Jan 19, 2019 17:58:02 GMT -6
To a large extent, Posey's value over these last 3 years of his contract will depend on how effective his hip surgery (which he had in September) was. Throughout 2018, he was hitting with a bad hip and that sapped his power, although the batting avg was largely still there (.282). If the surgery went well, I would expect his SLG to rebound to about .420, and that should make him something like a 115 OPS+ player in 2019. From that point, I could see him gently declining to 112 OPS+ in 2020 and 108 in 2021. If he produced at those levels, a Reddick/Stassi trade for Posey might make sense if SF kicks in about $10 million in salary relief for the 2021 season. I don't think this would be the preferred way for the Astros to go at C. I just think it should be an option to consider alongside "stand pat", "trade for Realmuto", and other options like "think about getting Cervelli at the deadline". Fans can sometimes be their own worst enemy. Right now, SF's biggest on-field problem for 2019 is its joke of an outfield. They could literally bring over the Astros set OF of Marisnick/Kemp/Reddick and be much improved in that department. On the return, some combination of Will Smith, Tony Watson, and Posey would improve the Astros in areas where the team currently has a relative weakness. If we only talk about players, there is a good match. But Value tends to get in the way. Posey is over payed and worth about 8M/yr less than what he's paid. Therefore, the giants need to send money without any return at all. Our prospects are making less than they're worth and so the Giants need to send money to get them. So it's the right players, but the Giants are looking to decrease payroll, not add to it.
The wild card with any of the Giant veterans going somewhere else is they have a new GM, how much does he play a role on who is dealt. I guess on which way he wants to bend. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 18:21:11 GMT -6
Will Smith and Tony Watson are in the last years of their contracts with SFG in 2019, and will be owed $7.8 million this year.
If SF wants to cut payroll (and they should), shipping those players out makes sense. They would still want some kind of return, and maybe they would want major league OF help to address their current crisis, or major league bullpen help (to offset the loss of Smith/Watson), or if they're smart, they would want AA/AAA guys who stand to contribute to what may be their return to contention around 2021.
If I were in Luhnow's shoes, I would have the following on the table in an effort to snag one or both of Smith & Watson from SF:
Marisnick
Kemp
Bailey
Guduan
Rodgers
Deetz
McCurry
Matijevic
Bielak
Bukauskas
Javier
Abreu
Ivey
Solomon
Solis
Armenteros
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 19, 2019 19:29:25 GMT -6
Will Smith and Tony Watson are in the last years of their contracts with SFG in 2019, and will be owed $7.8 million this year. If SF wants to cut payroll (and they should), shipping those players out makes sense. They would still want some kind of return, and maybe they would want major league OF help to address their current crisis, or major league bullpen help (to offset the loss of Smith/Watson), or if they're smart, they would want AA/AAA guys who stand to contribute to what may be their return to contention around 2021. If I were in Luhnow's shoes, I would have the following on the table in an effort to snag one or both of Smith & Watson from SF: Marisnick Kemp Bailey Guduan Rodgers Deetz McCurry Matijevic Bielak Bukauskas Javier Abreu Ivey Solomon Solis Armenteros Why not try and swap Devenski and Harris and a couple prospects for Smith and Watson? I'm pretty sure Lunhow wouldnt wanna move Harris since he was a hidden gem. Lol article on Tals hill. But it would make since if they could two for 4 swap? |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 19, 2019 19:38:50 GMT -6
This is truely a question I have for you guys as a would you: How much money would the Giants have to pay if they traded Evan Longoria and maybe Watson or Smith to the Astros for  I'm not sure of the Contract of Longoria 4yrs with 72m left I have to look at the details. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 19:47:30 GMT -6
I hate to say it, but a cold objective assessment of Devo probably has to conclude that now is the time to move him if there are any takers. Let's look at his progression in some key areas from 2016 → 2017 → 2018 ERA 2.16 → 2.68 → 4.18 FIP 2.34 → 3.49 → 4.49 IP 108.1 → 80.2 → 47.1 HR/FB 3.5% → 13.6% → 15.8% OPS Against .551 → .588 → .719 The effectiveness of literally all his pitches is on a downward trend, and he's now going to be battling age as well.  The sad fact is that Devo is getting less durable and more hittable with each passing year. If the Giants want him as part of a Smith/Watson deal, I say let them have him. It doesn't change the fact we can always revere Devo's contributions to the team in the form of the COD, the retro hats, and the Devo Strut. |
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