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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 19, 2019 19:56:03 GMT -6
This is truely a question I have for you guys as a would you: How much money would the Giants have to pay if they traded Evan Longoria and maybe Watson or Smith to the Astros for  I'm not sure of the Contract of Longoria 4yrs with 72m left I have to look at the details. Why would we trade for Longoria? |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 20:08:01 GMT -6
This is truely a question I have for you guys as a would you: How much money would the Giants have to pay if they traded Evan Longoria and maybe Watson or Smith to the Astros for I'm not sure of the Contract of Longoria 4yrs with 72m left I have to look at the details. Longoria's contract is especially ugly the way it ramps up salary towards the end. This is what he's owed according to Sportrac: 2019 - $14.5 2020 - $15 2021 - $18.5 2022 - $19.5 Total of $67.5 million over the next four seasons. He's 33 now so he'll be 36/37 by the end of the deal. As a player, I have to think his years of above-league-average production are well behind him back in Tampa. I can't really see a place for him on the Astros, either on the infield or even as a DH. Maybe he could take over Tyler White's role pitching to opponents in blowout games. In the trade idea you mentioned, the Astros would be on the hook for $7.8 million owed to Watson/Smith plus $67.5 owed to Longoria, for a total of $75.3 million over the next 4 years. Assuming Longoria took over Kemp's backup IF role, he'd generously be worth $15 million to the team (assuming a WAR progression of 2.2 – 2 – 1.8 – 1.5 over the 4 years) and Smith/Watson are worth $10 million combined. So the Astros get $25 million in value but are on the hook for $75 million+... to answer your question, the Giants would need to send over $50 million in cash. At the end of the day I'd much rather see Kemp than Longoria in that role. Assuming Kemp stays put till he turns FA after the 2023 season, the Astros probably spend no more than $10 million on him, all his arb years and league minimum years combined. No need to complicate things by taking on some albatross from the Bay Area. |
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Post by paastrosfan on Jan 19, 2019 20:20:45 GMT -6
Those long term, back loaded contracts are most likely a thing of the past.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 19, 2019 20:22:55 GMT -6
This is truely a question I have for you guys as a would you: How much money would the Giants have to pay if they traded Evan Longoria and maybe Watson or Smith to the Astros for I'm not sure of the Contract of Longoria 4yrs with 72m left I have to look at the details. Longoria's contract is especially ugly the way it ramps up salary towards the end. This is what he's owed according to Sportrac: 2019 - $14.5 2020 - $15 2021 - $18.5 2022 - $19.5 Total of $67.5 million over the next four seasons. He's 33 now so he'll be 36/37 by the end of the deal. As a player, I have to think his years of above-league-average production are well behind him back in Tampa. I can't really see a place for him on the Astros, either on the infield or even as a DH. Maybe he could take over Tyler White's role pitching to opponents in blowout games. In the trade idea you mentioned, the Astros would be on the hook for $7.8 million owed to Watson/Smith plus $67.5 owed to Longoria, for a total of $75.3 million over the next 4 years. Assuming Longoria took over Kemp's backup IF role, he'd generously be worth $15 million to the team (assuming a WAR progression of 2.2 – 2 – 1.8 – 1.5 over the 4 years) and Smith/Watson are worth $10 million combined. So the Astros get $25 million in value but are on the hook for $75 million+... to answer your question, the Giants would need to send over $50 million in cash. At the end of the day I'd much rather see Kemp than Longoria in that role. Assuming Kemp stays put till he turns FA after the 2023 season, the Astros probably spend no more than $10 million on him, all his arb years and league minimum years combined. No need to complicate things by taking on some albatross from the Bay Area. Wait the San Francisco Sun says the GM Farhan says he will pay a big ole chunk of his contract to move on from him. My thought would be what would you be ok with if you could move contracts back? And please offer a scenario where it would fit to make you happy. I'm just trying to see what it would take to improve our team over all and have a DH Let's say this scenario: So what about Smith, Watson and Longoria Plus 2019 14.5m Giants pay .5m 2020 15m Giants pay 1m 2021 18.5m Giants pay 10.5m 2022 19.5m Giants pay 11.5m A total of 24.5m of Longoria's contract For Josh Reddick, Yuli Gurriel, Chris Devenski and prospects Abraham Toro and Jonathan Aruaz? It clears roster spots and adds you a DH/3B plus your two pretty good Relivers for the pen. It's a thought there talking about it on Twitter as a possibility spot for Longoria and adding either bum or the two relivers and paying like 25m |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 20:23:34 GMT -6
The value of getting Will Smith and Tony Watson is primarily that those are two relievers you could confidently put on the mound in the postseason against the best hitters LAD, NYY, and BOS have to offer. Without them, you are more likely to have to send Harris, Devo, Cionel Perez, or Peacock out there against the likes of Judge, Betts, and Turner. I suspect Smith/Watson give the better chance of success.
The secondary benefit is that the Astros would tend to get through the regular season much more smoothly. Acquiring Smith and Watson would likely make it unnecessary to give significant relief innings to Armenteros, Guduan, Deetz, Rodgers, and McCurry. So instead of a bullpen ERA north of 3.80, you probably have a bullpen ERA below 3.50. We'd be talking about winning an extra 3 to 5 games over the RS that a lesser bullpen would let get away. Those wins probably wouldn't be crucial but you never know.
Also, acquiring Smith/Watson would help the Stros clinch the division early, which would allow them to rest their starters for the postseason and use September to better evaluate minor leaguers for what they can do in 2020.
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 19, 2019 20:25:45 GMT -6
Why are we even discussing crap like the Longoria albatross when the team needs productive, reasonably priced players in order to get us to the point where we can keep our stars?
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Post by paastrosfan on Jan 19, 2019 20:27:30 GMT -6
Why are we even discussing crap like the Longoria albatross when the team needs productive, reasonably priced players in order to get us to the point where we can keep our stars? Just think there is always a Fred Sanford out there. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 20:39:02 GMT -6
nathangarza29 There do seem to be basic elements in place for some kind of SFG-HOU trade, but the specifics are a headache. Then again those are the headaches that good front offices are paid to work through, because it's worthwhile if they do it right. Somehow, SF needs an outfield and to acquire guys who contribute to their potential postseason runs in 2021-2025; while on the other hand, the Astros could benefit from SFG's above-average MLB talent in the 2019-2020 timeframe, esp pitching and maybe at C. The Astros do have MLB-level outfielders ready to unload under the right circumstances, and SFG has quality pitching that will be of no use to them in their window of contention. MadBum and Posey are interesting to think about, and a lot of it comes down to how well they come back from injury. Based on what MadBum looks ready to contribute in 2019 (instead of what he's done in the past), he's probably a 4th starter behind McHugh and ahead of James. And I'd be surprised if the Astros get 150 innings from him. As for Posey, if the hip looks good to go in ST, I think he's probably worth $15 million of his $21.4 million salary... which is to say his value is about equal to Reddick's current price tag.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 20:40:27 GMT -6
Honestly, off season boredom gets fans talking about a lot of crazy stuff, but if we can't watch baseball, I guess we might as well think/write about it.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 19, 2019 20:59:18 GMT -6
Honestly, off season boredom gets fans talking about a lot of crazy stuff, but if we can't watch baseball, I guess we might as well think/write about it. I've been watching this debate for about an hour. Some see a MadBum and Longoria package with 15m paid on Evan over so many years for a package. Others see the two relivers and Longoria and 25m being the best way to move him. There is alot of love for MadBum and Posey. When Poseys name was brought up it was almost instantly shot down. I agree there is alot of boredom. But it's fun to see writers actually argue both sides of the ball. Fans cant really chime in. Idk why. But watching the arguements are very compelling and show how much writers think about there own players |
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 19, 2019 21:05:52 GMT -6
Honestly, off season boredom gets fans talking about a lot of crazy stuff, but if we can't watch baseball, I guess we might as well think/write about it. I've been watching this debate for about an hour. Some see a MadBum and Longoria package with 15m paid on Evan over so many years for a package. Others see the two relivers and Longoria and 25m being the best way to move him. There is alot of love for MadBum and Posey. When Poseys name was brought up it was almost instantly shot down. I agree there is alot of boredom. But it's fun to see writers actually argue both sides of the ball. Fans cant really chime in. Idk why. But watching the arguements are very compelling and show how much writers think about there own players I don't see Luhnow making this move. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 21:30:36 GMT -6
nathangarza29 If SF is truly willing to take on a large part of Longoria's salary, I could see something like this working out for the Astros: SFG gets: Reddick (19-20), Marisnick (19-20), Devenski (19-21), Kemp (19-23) HOU gets: Longoria (19-22), Will Smith (19), Tony Watson (19), Bumgarner (19) plus $35 million in cash ($5 in 2020, $14 in 2021, $16 in 2022). Over the entire period of 2019-2023, the Giants would receive an estimated 14 WAR and would pay $85.3 million ($35 of which is salary relief for the Longoria albatross), or $6.09/WAR. The Astros would receive a total of 12 WAR for $52.3 million, or $4.36/WAR. I don't see SFG agreeing to do it, but you asked what would make sense for the Astros, and I think this would. This deal would give the Giants about $17 million in salary relief in the 2019 season, but then they would get squeezed in 2021-22 as a result of their unwise decision to sign Longoria to such a ridiculous contract. The benefit to the Astros would be that they fill important holes in the starting rotation and bullpen for the 2019 playoff run. MadBum's bat would be cool to have in any WS games in an NL park. Also, this deal clears the weaker hitters out of the Houston offense so that Tucker has time to adjust to the big leagues and space is available to add a premium bat like Castellanos or Jose Martinez. This should help bring team OPS into the .780-.800 range. Realistically, MadBum could probably make 23 starts (+/-2) and still have his arm in good condition for the postseason. I think it would be folly to push him to give 200 innings in the RS. But a postseason rotation of Verlander, Cole, MadBum, McHugh/James would be pretty formidable. And I'd put the Astros bullpen with Smith/Watson up against NYY's any day.
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Post by blcoach8 on Jan 19, 2019 23:00:26 GMT -6
I've been watching this debate for about an hour. Some see a MadBum and Longoria package with 15m paid on Evan over so many years for a package. Others see the two relivers and Longoria and 25m being the best way to move him. There is alot of love for MadBum and Posey. When Poseys name was brought up it was almost instantly shot down. I agree there is alot of boredom. But it's fun to see writers actually argue both sides of the ball. Fans cant really chime in. Idk why. But watching the arguements are very compelling and show how much writers think about there own players I don't see Luhnow making this move. I always wonder why things are brought up that have no chance of happening. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 19, 2019 23:05:42 GMT -6
Word going around is, #SFGiants have been gauging trade interest in Evan Longoria. Rivals believe it would take big bucks to offset his contract to move him. Has $72.5M to go through 2022 plus $2M assignment bonus if traded (Tampa Bay chipped in $14.5M to trade him last year).
I mean like I said Giants willing to take big chunk of Evan's Contract.
Js
There are alot more this one just came from Jon Heyman.
I mean it may not happen but I just brought it up to see how you guys feel
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Post by thomasj13 on Jan 19, 2019 23:10:11 GMT -6
Word going around is, #SFGiants have been gauging trade interest in Evan Longoria. Rivals believe it would take big bucks to offset his contract to move him. Has $72.5M to go through 2022 plus $2M assignment bonus if traded (Tampa Bay chipped in $14.5M to trade him last year). I mean like I said Giants willing to take big chunk of Evan's Contract. Js There are alot more this one just came from Jon Heyman. I mean it may not happen but I just brought it up to see how you guys feel Not going to happen. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 19, 2019 23:10:56 GMT -6
Word going around is, #SFGiants have been gauging trade interest in Evan Longoria. Rivals believe it would take big bucks to offset his contract to move him. Has $72.5M to go through 2022 plus $2M assignment bonus if traded (Tampa Bay chipped in $14.5M to trade him last year). I mean like I said Giants willing to take big chunk of Evan's Contract. Js There are alot more this one just came from Jon Heyman. I mean it may not happen but I just brought it up to see how you guys feel The Giants would have to know that whoever trades for Longoria, wouldn't be doing it primarily to get value from Longoria's "contributions" on the field. It would be to coax SF into trading them players who are actually expected to perform above the league average in pitching or hitting. It's a sad situation the Giants FO has put itself into, but they can't expect other teams to jump in and bite the bullet for their poor decisions in the past. I would think that to move Longoria would require SF paying at least 60% of his remaining salary and also giving fair valuation (in the eyes of SF's trade partner) to the more valuable pieces in the deal. |
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Post by paastrosfan on Jan 19, 2019 23:59:47 GMT -6
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 20, 2019 0:17:55 GMT -6
This is why no one likes Manny Machado.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 20, 2019 0:21:18 GMT -6
unionstation82 he just wanted his mommy to kiss it and make it better, that's all
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 20, 2019 0:25:19 GMT -6
unionstation82 he just wanted his mommy to kiss it and make it better, that's all He can kick ankles and balls and grab people during slides, but no one should dare tag him. What a little bitch. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 20, 2019 0:26:02 GMT -6
I don't see Luhnow making this move. I always wonder why things are brought up that have no chance of happening. It's like how we used to play cowboys and Indians when we were small. Now that we are just kids in bigger bodies, some people like to play "MLB General Manager" as a way to pass the time. If you are interested in statistics and sabermetrics, it's actually kind of fun. You get to see how difficult it is to make a trade deal work, you get to forecast on-field returns vs expenditures in cash and human human resources... the fact that only a tiny portion of the deals you might look at on paper ever come to fruition in reality, doesn't really diminish the enjoyment of the exercise. Once the season gets going, it's mildly entertaining to check how the performance you forecast for various players in the off season ends up comparing with reality. Sometimes you are wildly off-base (a year ago, who thought Tony Sipp would put up a 1.99 ERA?) and other times, you are spot-on. |
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Post by paastrosfan on Jan 20, 2019 0:45:46 GMT -6
This is why no one likes Manny Machado. Embarrassed that a sweep tag put him on his butt. LOL |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 20, 2019 0:56:10 GMT -6
Machado. Carlos Gomez. Yasiel Puig. There are enough of these clowns in the league that you'd think one of the under-performing teams like Marlins or Orioles would ditch the whole idea of trying to play regular baseball and instead field a Globetrotters-type team that people simply come to see to for the theatrics and silliness of it all.
Ball-in-the-pocket, running directly from 2B to home, pie in the umpire's face, banana peels along the base paths... all of that would probably be more entertaining than what they are doing now.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 20, 2019 1:14:21 GMT -6
This might be a little clue to the Giants' thinking on trades from today's mlbtr:
"For the most part, though, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is seeking controllable hurlers who come with minor league options, per Schulman,"
They were talking about how ultimately the Giants couldn't get that interested in Gray b/c of no minor league options.
In a prospective Astros trade for Smith/Watson, perhaps the players who would interest SFG most would be Armenteros, Bukauskas, Cristian Javier, Ivey, Solomon, or Jairo Solis. I'm not sure if Cionel Perez has any options left or if Luhnow might think he is too valuable an asset to give up for a couple of releivers who would be leaving the team in November anyway.
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Post by bearbryant on Jan 20, 2019 4:00:16 GMT -6
Bell wasn't protected in the expansion draft. He was acquired with Gutierrez, Phil Plantier and some others for Caminiti, Finley, Cedeno and some others. There were 12 players in total and the trade was
in the winter of '94 Did you have all that in your memory, or did you have to look it up? Some of you guys amaze me with the stuff you can remember, and the specificity of it. Sherwin is one.
if there was one cause the Astrodome couldn't draw dick for ticket revenue. I had to look up the players I forgot about. Doug Brocail was one of them |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 20, 2019 8:19:33 GMT -6
This might be a little clue to the Giants' thinking on trades from today's mlbtr: "For the most part, though, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is seeking controllable hurlers who come with minor league options, per Schulman," They were talking about how ultimately the Giants couldn't get that interested in Gray b/c of no minor league options. In a prospective Astros trade for Smith/Watson, perhaps the players who would interest SFG most would be Armenteros, Bukauskas, Cristian Javier, Ivey, Solomon, or Jairo Solis. I'm not sure if Cionel Perez has any options left or if Luhnow might think he is too valuable an asset to give up for a couple of releivers who would be leaving the team in November anyway. Farhan has already said Watson and Smith are available |
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marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
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Post by marshall on Jan 20, 2019 8:54:19 GMT -6
This might be a little clue to the Giants' thinking on trades from today's mlbtr: "For the most part, though, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is seeking controllable hurlers who come with minor league options, per Schulman," They were talking about how ultimately the Giants couldn't get that interested in Gray b/c of no minor league options. In a prospective Astros trade for Smith/Watson, perhaps the players who would interest SFG most would be Armenteros, Bukauskas, Cristian Javier, Ivey, Solomon, or Jairo Solis. I'm not sure if Cionel Perez has any options left or if Luhnow might think he is too valuable an asset to give up for a couple of releivers who would be leaving the team in November anyway. Farhan has already said Watson and Smith are available This looks like a match-up which could work. We have excess supply in that area and they have pitchers which actually improve the bull pen, particularly if some former relievers become starters.
As usual, it would come down to the details and how close the GMs are in evaluating not just the players, but their value in light of their potential and club control.
But this looks like a much more believable trade partner than many other suggestions.
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Post by olpapa on Jan 20, 2019 8:59:21 GMT -6
This is why no one likes Manny Machado. Embarrassed that a sweep tag put him on his butt. LOL Bless his little heart. |
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marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
Posts: 4,358
Likes: 446
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Post by marshall on Jan 20, 2019 9:29:55 GMT -6
Those long term, back loaded contracts are most likely a thing of the past. As they should be. |
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Post by paastrosfan on Jan 20, 2019 12:04:19 GMT -6
Did you have all that in your memory, or did you have to look it up? Some of you guys amaze me with the stuff you can remember, and the specificity of it. Sherwin is one.
if there was one cause the Astrodome couldn't draw dick for ticket revenue. I had to look up the players I forgot about. Doug Brocail was one of themI remember watching Bell when he was a farm hand coming up in the Blue Jays organization playing in Syracuse in the International League. |
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