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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 28, 2019 11:43:54 GMT -6
I've been trying to put some numbers down to get a sense of what the 2019 starting pitching might look like by the end of the season. Assuming no additions to the starting staff, here's something along the lines of what we might see:  Many people think McHugh will last 150 innings, and he might. But considering his 'dead arm' issue in the past and that he will be making a big transition from the bullpen, I prefer to pencil in an older pitcher like Collin for only 100 innings. Valdez, James, and the younger guys can probably give over 100 innings based on their workload last year. Whitley, I think they don't want to put too much strain on his arm this year. By taking it easy on McHugh and Whitley in the regular season, it should help keep them fresh for the playoffs. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 28, 2019 11:45:21 GMT -6
There are many I would categorize as "rebels without a clue." Now I just call them "left wing lunatics."  Don't forget that Marshall is a Luddite. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 28, 2019 11:45:56 GMT -6
Why not? Could be entertaining. Of course, I don't want OlPapa to stroke out on us. I'd might blow a fuse too. His silly little games of condescending non-sequitirish gibber is chicken shit. As many times as I try not taking the bait, the dip always gets me into flaming wars or words. The little bitch feeds on that. That won't be a problem here. I won't allow him to do it. |
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Post by olpapa on Jan 28, 2019 11:50:59 GMT -6
I don’t think Whitley will be much help to the 2019 rotation. He only pitched 52 innings in 2018. What is the guideline they follow when developing young pitchers? Isn’t it something like they don’t add more than 30 IP +/- from one year to the next? If that is true, they will be limiting Whitley to 82 IP +/- in 2019. He won’t have that many innings to start with and if he starts out at AA or AAA, he won’t have a lot of innings remaining by the time he gets to Houston. I could see him being used in a opener role or in tandem with another pitcher where he would only pitch 4-5 innings per game. I could see him coming out of the bullpen. Yeah, I meant a combination of Whitley and James. I don't think either is completely ready for 30+ starts. If we should happen to re-sign Keuchel this offseason, what would you think of a 2020 rotation of: Keuchel McCullers James Whitley Valdez/Martin/Bukauskas |
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Post by olpapa on Jan 28, 2019 11:58:08 GMT -6
I've been trying to put some numbers down to get a sense of what the 2019 starting pitching might look like by the end of the season. Assuming no additions to the starting staff, here's something along the lines of what we might see: Many people think McHugh will last 150 innings, and he might. But considering his 'dead arm' issue in the past and that he will be making a big transition from the bullpen, I prefer to pencil in an older pitcher like Collin for only 100 innings. Valdez, James, and the younger guys can probably give over 100 innings based on their workload last year. Whitley, I think they don't want to put too much strain on his arm this year. By taking it easy on McHugh and Whitley in the regular season, it should help keep them fresh for the playoffs. I don’t think we can count on Whitley for 70 innings. He only pitched 52 innings in the minors and AFL combined last season. He probably won’t be allowed to pitch much more than 80 innings this year. I doubt he will be on the ML roster before mid-June. By that time he will have probably pitched at least 50 innings or so in the minors. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 28, 2019 12:00:02 GMT -6
Yeah, I meant a combination of Whitley and James. I don't think either is completely ready for 30+ starts. If we should happen to re-sign Keuchel this offseason, what would you think of a 2020 rotation of: Keuchel McCullers James Whitley Valdez/Martin/Bukauskas Just eyeballing it, that rotation looks like it should keep the 2020 Astros around 7th to 12th overall out of the 30 MLB teams in starting pitching. With a bullpen and an offense of roughly the same caliber, the 2020 Astros would have a good shot at the postseason (though may well be a wildcard team by then). A Top 3 Offense and Top 3 Bullpen in that year would make it more feasible to win the division and not have to go the WC route. I think Luhnow's long-term strategy is to have the Astros making the playoffs in roughly 2/3 of years though not putting so many eggs into one season's basket that they are the #1 seed or favorite to win it all. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 28, 2019 12:01:12 GMT -6
In the Whit Merrifield discussions, I read an interesting speculation -- that managers today might discourage the running game because they are afraid that a runner in motion from 1st to 2nd might distract the hitter and increase strikeouts and poor contact. In spite of all the oddball statistics out there, I can't find any stat that has tried to measure this objectively -- meaning, batting average when runners are in motion vs not in motion; or OPS when runners are in motion vs not in motion. I've seen lots of cases where runners in motion (or threatening to run) razzed the pitcher to such an extent that he threw a wild pitch, walked a hitter, or did something else that benefited the offense. Unless there's a verifiable stat out there to suggest otherwise, I would think that having and implementing a good running game always benefits the offense. What *has* changed is the definition of a "good" running game. It's now understood that you need very fast runners who can steal successfully 75% of the time or more. 60% doesn't cut it, though some people used to think it did. Yeah, the threat of a stolen base and the effect it might have on a pitcher is always a good thing for the offense. Raw number of stolen bases for the season once was a feather in a player's cap. But these days, we know better. 75% success rate is roughly the break-even point. But it really depends on the situation. They calculate how much the run expectancy of a particular situation increases due to a successful steal and how much it decreases on a failed attempt resulting in an out. This article from 2011 does a decent job of explaining how that works. blogs.fangraphs.com/breaking-down-stolen-base-break-even-points/But that doesn't include the deficit to the batter who might be taking a strike to allow the runner to steal. Adding a strike to his count decreases his likelihood of reaching base safely. The calculations are based bases and outs, only.
Of course the old-school small-ball fans don't like to hear about these kinds of analytics.
In related news, Earl Weaver was ahead of his time . . .
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 28, 2019 12:06:20 GMT -6
I don’t think we can count on Whitley for 70 innings. He only pitched 52 innings in the minors and AFL combined last season. He probably won’t be allowed to pitch much more than 80 innings this year. I doubt he will be on the ML roster before mid-June. By that time he will have probably pitched at least 50 innings or so in the minors. If Whitley can only make a half-dozen starts, then I guess the next Astro to get starting honors would be Cionel Perez. He regularly threw 80 pitches per start from April to early July last year. Cionel really only got blown up in one start last year, which was his first appearance of the year against Arkansas. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 28, 2019 12:23:19 GMT -6
it's pretty hard to imagine that Luhnow won't eventually get a SP before spring training.
These scenarios where 40 or more starts have to be given to Armenteros, Valdez, and Cionel would cause the bullpen to have to dig deeply into the AAA talent pool. The club might be doing well to keep the Team ERA under 4.00 if that were the case.
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 28, 2019 12:25:13 GMT -6
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Post by nathangarza29 on Jan 28, 2019 12:40:49 GMT -6
Castellanos of the Tigers hasn't even gotten a call on by Clubs. Makes you wonder on what the Tigers have told people about him or the word on his value is?
If Realmuto doesnt come to the Astros then this is the next best thing.
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marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
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Post by marshall on Jan 28, 2019 13:06:36 GMT -6
Basically Padres have said if you want one of there top five players we want a longer deal for Realmuto rather then 2yrs. So let us negotiate a longer deal. Marlins have said No Two years of Realmuto for said prospects. You do the deal then do your extensions. As loaded as the Padres are, that seems like a foolish hard line on the part of the Marlins. The idea that being loaded means you should give teams more than you get in return is unwise. Unless there is a reason to move a player due to other reasons like running out of options or the need to add roster spots, you should always receive value for value. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 28, 2019 13:12:20 GMT -6
While it's possible Castellanos is still available at the deadline, I'd like to see the Astros add him now.
The pitching picture is shaky enough that the team needs some extra offense that will help accumulate more wins before the ASB.
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 28, 2019 13:24:29 GMT -6
While it's possible Castellanos is still available at the deadline, I'd like to see the Astros add him now. The pitching picture is shaky enough that the team needs some extra offense that will help accumulate more wins before the ASB. Wholeheartedly agree. If they’re going to not be that aggressive at getting pitching, they should probably stack the batting order as best as possible. |
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marshall
Veteran
21st Century Luddite
Ephesians 6:12 For our struggle is not against flesh and blood...
Posts: 4,358
Likes: 446
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Post by marshall on Jan 28, 2019 13:25:43 GMT -6
In the Whit Merrifield discussions, I read an interesting speculation -- that managers today might discourage the running game because they are afraid that a runner in motion from 1st to 2nd might distract the hitter and increase strikeouts and poor contact. In spite of all the oddball statistics out there, I can't find any stat that has tried to measure this objectively -- meaning, batting average when runners are in motion vs not in motion; or OPS when runners are in motion vs not in motion. I've seen lots of cases where runners in motion (or threatening to run) razzed the pitcher to such an extent that he threw a wild pitch, walked a hitter, or did something else that benefited the offense. Unless there's a verifiable stat out there to suggest otherwise, I would think that having and implementing a good running game always benefits the offense. What *has* changed is the definition of a "good" running game. It's now understood that you need very fast runners who can steal successfully 75% of the time or more. 60% doesn't cut it, though some people used to think it did. Yeah, the threat of a stolen base and the effect it might have on a pitcher is always a good thing for the offense. Raw number of stolen bases for the season once was a feather in a player's cap. But these days, we know better. 75% success rate is roughly the break-even point. But it really depends on the situation. They calculate how much the run expectancy of a particular situation increases due to a successful steal and how much it decreases on a failed attempt resulting in an out. This article from 2011 does a decent job of explaining how that works. blogs.fangraphs.com/breaking-down-stolen-base-break-even-points/But that doesn't include the deficit to the batter who might be taking a strike to allow the runner to steal. Adding a strike to his count decreases his likelihood of reaching base safely. The calculations are based bases and outs, only.
Of course the old-school small-ball fans don't like to hear about these kinds of analytics.
In related news, Earl Weaver was ahead of his time . . .
Yep. He curses at least twice a sentence just like modern kids and announcers. Is anybody really impressed with such limited vocabulary and overt vulagarity? |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 28, 2019 14:02:47 GMT -6
Still getting the hang of referring to a post...We have always taught our runners to be active in the basepath. An active runner can distract a pitcher by rushing him. A pitcher that is worried about a runner will more likely rely on his fastball to speed up the process. RHP’s will incorporate the slide step (cause pitches to be elevated) which help the hitter see better more hittable pitches. Lefty’s...well they’re a whole different story...By the time a lefty comes set, they already know if they are going over or to the plate. An active runner can impact a lefty by causing hesitation in his thought process, leading to more hittable pitches for the batter. I haven’t ever seen a stat that shows whether or not that this theory is actually correct at the major league level...but I know that it works at the high school and college level and would have to believe that it has some impact in the show as well. The game is just played differently...not necessarily any more correctly, but that is the topic for another thread. I like the idea of trying to win the game you are playing rather than statistical trending over the long course of the marathon major league season. I understand the logic behind using the law of large numbers...just think that the most successful teams incorporate a little of both. If you ever have time to start a thread about differences you see in how the game is played at the collegiate vs MLB level, that would be very informative for me and I'm sure many others on this forum too. While I couldn't find statistics specifically related to whether the runner at 1B has broken for 2B, I was able to look up the BRef hitting stats for the American League in 2018 which break down plate appearances by the number of men on base. These were the AL numbers for last season: No men on base - .241 BA, .710 OPS Runner on 1st - .262 BA, .750 OPS Runner on 2nd - .240 BA, .740 OPS Runner on 3rd - .274 BA, .815 OPS Runners on 1st and 2nd - .245 BA, .717 OPS Runners on the corners - .287 BA, .793 OPS Runners on 2nd and 3rd - .257 BA, .781 OPS Bases loaded - .265 BA, .756 OPS So in general, having a runner at first (who may or may not be attempting a steal) is associated with an extra 21 to 46 batting average points. Runners at 3rd seem to be especially troublesome for pitchers; but then again we might reason that a pitcher who has allowed a runner to reach 3rd is more likely to be struggling anyway, and hence more likely to give up yet more hits. One thing that stands out to me in these numbers, though, is that having a runner on 2nd (whether he be the only man on base, or on 2nd when 1st base is also occupied) is not especially advantageous for the hitter. Batting avg is virtually unchanged in these cases in comparison with a bases-empty scenario. Perhaps this is due to the batter getting distracted by the runner dancing around just off the 2nd base bag as he tries to razz the pitcher. |
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 28, 2019 14:06:08 GMT -6
Yep. He curses at least twice a sentence just like modern kids and announcers. Is anybody really impressed with such limited vocabulary and overt vulagarity?  |
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Post by Saint on Jan 28, 2019 14:26:00 GMT -6
Yeah, I meant a combination of Whitley and James. I don't think either is completely ready for 30+ starts. If we should happen to re-sign Keuchel this offseason, what would you think of a 2020 rotation of: Keuchel McCullers James Whitley Valdez/Martin/Bukauskas I think it gets us in a playoff race if the offense performs the way it can, but I don't think that rotation gets us deep. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 28, 2019 14:46:47 GMT -6
This article from 2011 does a decent job of explaining how that works. blogs.fangraphs.com/breaking-down-stolen-base-break-even-points/But that doesn't include the deficit to the batter who might be taking a strike to allow the runner to steal. Adding a strike to his count decreases his likelihood of reaching base safely. The calculations are based bases and outs, only.
Of course the old-school small-ball fans don't like to hear about these kinds of analytics.
That was a very interesting article. Two things to take away from it with regard to the current Astros team -- 1) The double steal should probably be attempted more often when there are no outs or only one out. Last season, I telepathically begged Hinch on several occasions to put on the double steal, mainly to take away the GIDP opportunity as the Astros were far and away the AL leaders in GIDP%. The article shows that you only need to accomplish a successful double steal ~62% of the time in those cases for it to be of net benefit. Obviously if a slowpoke like White or Stassi is on base, you shouldn't try it. But if it's Altuve/Correa, Bregman/Kemp, or Marisnick/Gurriel, I'd try it. In the worst case, the catcher manages to throw out one of the runners. But I've never seen a catcher throw out both baserunners in a double steal. 2) With a runner like Straw, you have to wonder about attempting steals of home more often. Last time I remember the Astros doing it was with Carlos Gomez and of course it was a failure. But the article shows that when you have a runner at 3rd and two men already out, you only need to be successful in 34% of attempts for it to provide a net benefit. That's simply because with two men already out, odds are you aren't going to score that runner from 3rd anyway. Given 20 attempts at stealing home, how many would Straw make successfully? Of course the answer depends on the extent to which the defense is expecting him to try it. But he's so fast, I really think he might exceed 34%. If Straw were to establish a reputation as a stealer of home (even by doing it just two or three times), it would cause pitchers to throw over to third more often, and eventually some of those throws would be errant, allowing him to scamper home. In general it would do a psych job on defenses. |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 28, 2019 15:13:06 GMT -6
Yeah, the threat of a stolen base and the effect it might have on a pitcher is always a good thing for the offense. Raw number of stolen bases for the season once was a feather in a player's cap. But these days, we know better. 75% success rate is roughly the break-even point. But it really depends on the situation. They calculate how much the run expectancy of a particular situation increases due to a successful steal and how much it decreases on a failed attempt resulting in an out. This article from 2011 does a decent job of explaining how that works. blogs.fangraphs.com/breaking-down-stolen-base-break-even-points/But that doesn't include the deficit to the batter who might be taking a strike to allow the runner to steal. Adding a strike to his count decreases his likelihood of reaching base safely. The calculations are based bases and outs, only. Of course the old-school small-ball fans don't like to hear about these kinds of analytics. In related news, Earl Weaver was ahead of his time . . .
Yep. He curses at least twice a sentence just like modern kids and announcers. Is anybody really impressed with such limited vocabulary and overt vulagarity?Hey marshall I did expect you to focus on the language rather than the message. As for me, I'm not at all impressed by vulgarity. Just the genius in the actual message.  |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 28, 2019 15:23:36 GMT -6
Interesting typo you made there on the word vulgarity by adding a letter. I think I'll add one more and coin a new word: Vulvagaritydefinition: puss-talk |
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 28, 2019 15:52:13 GMT -6
Yep. He curses at least twice a sentence just like modern kids and announcers. Is anybody really impressed with such limited vocabulary and overt vulagarity? Was I the only one who didn’t care much for that show? |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 28, 2019 15:56:35 GMT -6
Was I the only one who didn’t care much for that show? No, from what I've read in various places on the net, there were quite a lot of folks who didn't like it. Some really hated it and were very vocal about that. Personally I like it! |
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Post by abregmanfan on Jan 28, 2019 15:58:55 GMT -6
<iframe width="17" height="25" style="position: absolute; width: 17px; height: 25px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 12px; top: 68px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_59797289" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="17" height="25" style="position: absolute; width: 17px; height: 25px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 795px; top: 68px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_74898108" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="17" height="25" style="position: absolute; width: 17px; height: 25px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 12px; top: 1243px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_49020258" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="17" height="25" style="position: absolute; width: 17px; height: 25px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 795px; top: 1243px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_835499" scrolling="no"></iframe> Was I the only one who didn’t care much for that show? I don't watch shows like that. I usually only watch the old military channel, mlb network or the weather channel. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Jan 28, 2019 16:03:05 GMT -6
Kyle Boddy, the dude who was getting on Cole's case last season for allegedly doctoring the ball, is now singing the praises of Astros prospect Brandon Bailey.
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Jan 28, 2019 16:10:55 GMT -6
Was I the only one who didn’t care much for that show? Newp. It was too low-key ghey for my tastes. |
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Post by bearbryant on Jan 28, 2019 16:12:16 GMT -6
Was I the only one who didn’t care much for that show?
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Post by unionstation82 on Jan 28, 2019 16:23:38 GMT -6
Was I the only one who didn’t care much for that show?
Yes, was she a looker? |
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Post by bearbryant on Jan 28, 2019 16:24:38 GMT -6
Did you skip the Priya Koothrappali episodes
Yes, was she a looker? |
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Post by Hunter McCormick on Jan 28, 2019 16:34:47 GMT -6
Yes but that's just one fellow's opinion How would you rate her, bearbryant ? ☐ Probably would ☐ Would ☐ Most definitely would ☐ Wood |
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