Offseason Chatter

[unionstation82]

Baseball is becoming a tad individualistic. Too many people want to shout to the mountaintops when they produce a run. There’s so much “u mad bro?” when pitchers take offense, yet when they throw close and sometimes not even hit batters, they get all bent out of shape. Manny Machado tried throwing his helmet at Josh Donaldson for a simple tag.

Players aren’t allowed to break up DP’s or run into the catcher. They want to lower the mound even further and institute pitch clocks. Everything is skewed toward hitters and fielders but not pitchers.

Enough with the fast food version of baseball. Just leave it alone.

[ɮօʀȶǟʐ]

Feb 16, 2019 11:13:41 GMT -6 @txheat10k said:

Feb 16, 2019 8:35:30 GMT -6 Hunter McCormick said:

Catfish, at one time I had similar thoughts. I no longer think that way.

MLB is a business ... always has been, always will be. The owners can and should price their product at the sweet spot, where the number of units sold times the price per unit is the highest. If every game is a sellout, the pricepoint is probably too low. I don't blame the owners for their pricing. It's simple straightforward business.

Nor do I blame the players or the MLBPA. They have every right to maximize their income and benefits.

Likewise I don't blame Boras and his ilk. It's fun to hate on them and I do along with the rest of the fans. But the reality is, they're doing exactly what they should be doing. Helping the players get the best contracts possible.

If we want to point fingers at anyone for the prices, we need look no farther than ourselves. If we don't want to pay so much for a ticket, then we shouldn't. Stop going to the ballpark. The dynamics of this business is far different than a typical business, though. This is a product that isn't necessary for the basic quality of life. It's not water, food, shelter, clothing, power, communication, waste disposal or transportation. It's entertainment and there are a limited number of seats. It's a monopoly, but one our government allows to exist.

I agree with about 85% of your position.  Still, (1) When the game becomes only a pastime for the wealthy, then it has lost it's soul.  (2) It might not be in my lifetime, but there will be an econmic crisis that will bring the game to its knees.  As I stated in the previous post...   That tippinig point is going to be bad ugly.  (3) Also along economic lines, when the wealth is concentrated in the elderly population, do you think the younger folks will hold interest, if they can not routinely attend or become a true fan of the game.  

And just wait and see what happens if there is another strike.  What i mention above may be accelerated.

We all know baseball will be around until 2042, when Buck Bokai hits the winning HR off of the Yankees as the London Kings win the last World Series in front of a crowd of less than 300 fans.

[marshall]

This is really weird. I woke up this morning and discovered it is yesterday. It's not time travel, but I took a "quick nap" after lunch and woke up a few minutes ago. Now it feels like 4AM tomorrow. But at least I can always count on a few additional posts here no matter what time of the day or night I wake up.

[ɮօʀȶǟʐ]

[marshall]

Looking at COTs 2019 tax tracker, we appear to be at about $181M which includes salaries and other items which are included in the luxury tax calculus. Th report of about $160M only includes player salaries only the Active Roster. This leaves us with about $24M under the cap for additional acquisitions and in season trade deals.

With more and more teams moving on from Keuchel because they are hoping the "Brash Two" will lower their demands, would it be prudent to offer Keuchel $17M for a one year contract knowing it would hinder the flexibility for in season trades to meet unexpected needs?

I'm of mixed opinion since I want to see our prospects. But at the same time, I also know many of them hare not ready to pitch into the post season for various reasons, primarily from lack of innings last season.

[abregmanfan]

Feb 16, 2019 21:00:36 GMT -6 marshall said:

Looking at COTs 2019 tax tracker, we appear to be at about $181M which includes salaries and other items which are included in the luxury tax calculus. Th report of about $160M only includes player salaries only the Active Roster. This leaves us with about $24M under the cap for additional acquisitions and in season trade deals.

With more and more teams moving on from Keuchel because they are hoping the "Brash Two" will lower their demands, would it be prudent to offer Keuchel $17M for a one year contract knowing it would hinder the flexibility for in season trades to meet unexpected needs?

I'm of mixed opinion since I want to see our prospects. But at the same time, I also know many of them hare not ready to pitch into the post season for various reasons, primarily from lack of innings last season.

I would like to see it. We know what Dallas can do. We need to eat some innings.

[m240]

my opinion is that they kids need some seasoning. let them play

[marshall]

Feb 16, 2019 21:32:29 GMT -6 m240 said:

my opinion is that they kids need some seasoning. let them play

Verlander and Cole are ready to go deep.

BUT,

None of the prospects outside of Valdez, who had 158 innings across 4 teams in 2018 (DWL, AA, AAA, MLB,) is ready to pitch into the post season

It's just a lack of innings pitched  in 2018. Letting the prospects get their seasoning is laudable and desirable looking ahead to 2020, but they'll all be worn out  with 30 inning more than 2018 IP well before the playoffs. I really don't want to win at a 75% clip in the first half only to fall off to 40% in the second half and entering into post season as the pitchers reach their innings limits which also wears out the Bull Pen right before the playoffs.

Both McHugh and Peacock have done well in the past, but both have had less than 80 innings/yr recently. Expecting 200+ innings of effective pitching just isn't realistic.

So I see a need, but is there any realistic chance of getting an effective 200 IP pitcher on a short contract?

[astrosdoug]

Feb 16, 2019 21:00:36 GMT -6 marshall said:

Looking at COTs 2019 tax tracker, we appear to be at about $181M which includes salaries and other items which are included in the luxury tax calculus. Th report of about $160M only includes player salaries only the Active Roster. This leaves us with about $24M under the cap for additional acquisitions and in season trade deals.

With more and more teams moving on from Keuchel because they are hoping the "Brash Two" will lower their demands, would it be prudent to offer Keuchel $17M for a one year contract knowing it would hinder the flexibility for in season trades to meet unexpected needs?

I'm of mixed opinion since I want to see our prospects. But at the same time, I also know many of them hare not ready to pitch into the post season for various reasons, primarily from lack of innings last season.

Only Luhnow and his circle know for sure, but I would think the Astros have some kind of offer to Keuchel on the table valid until a certain date.

Given that the pitchers are already working out in Palm Beach, he'd be a late arrival at this point and that starts to reduce his value. 

Any offer to Keuchel should just be for a year or two, though. Anything beyond that and they are likely hiring a pitcher who will underperform the new crop of young arms, which is the most impressive crop in recent memory. 

[astrosdoug]

Feb 17, 2019 0:00:37 GMT -6 marshall said:

Feb 16, 2019 21:32:29 GMT -6 m240 said:

my opinion is that they kids need some seasoning. let them play

Verlander and Cole are ready to go deep.

BUT,

None of the prospects outside of Valdez, who had 158 innings across 4 teams in 2018 (DWL, AA, AAA, MLB,) is ready to pitch into the post season

It's just a lack of innings pitched  in 2018. Letting the prospects get their seasoning is laudable and desirable looking ahead to 2020, but they'll all be worn out  with 30 inning more than 2018 IP well before the playoffs. I really don't want to win at a 75% clip in the first half only to fall off to 40% in the second half and entering into post season as the pitchers reach their innings limits which also wears out the Bull Pen right before the playoffs.

Both McHugh and Peacock have done well in the past, but both have had less than 80 innings/yr recently. Expecting 200+ innings of effective pitching just isn't realistic.

So I see a need, but is there any realistic chance of getting an effective 200 IP pitcher on a short contract?

I bet that one of Greinke or deGrom will be available at the deadline. But the receiving team would have to consider whether that pitcher was overworked from April through July in order to gauge how much gas he will have left in the tank for the playoffs. 

[astrosdoug]

I calculated a few weeks ago that the Astros need approx. 150 more quality innings from outside the organization. That would be equivalent to 1 decent starter or 2 durable relievers.

I agree with Marshall that the pitching staff is strong in talent now but weak in durability.

[m240]

Feb 17, 2019 0:39:57 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

I calculated a few weeks ago that the Astros need approx. 150 more quality innings from outside the organization. That would be equivalent to 1 decent starter or 2 durable relievers.

I agree with Marshall that the pitching staff is strong in talent now but weak in durability.

And I agree with both of you that there are about 150 innings of question marks.  The difference between our opinions is that I think that we need to put the kids into the mix and see what we have.  150 innings would be way too much if we were talking about 1 or 2 rookies.  good for us that we have Whitley, James, Valdez, Perez, Armenteros, Martin and Bukauskas to call upon.  I hardly think anyone is going to get too many innings or be over worked.  Look at them all, see how their stuff plays with the big boys, get them ready for 2020.  Lord knows we are going to need them then.  

[marshall]

Feb 17, 2019 7:52:49 GMT -6 m240 said:

Feb 17, 2019 0:39:57 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

I calculated a few weeks ago that the Astros need approx. 150 more quality innings from outside the organization. That would be equivalent to 1 decent starter or 2 durable relievers.

I agree with Marshall that the pitching staff is strong in talent now but weak in durability.

And I agree with both of you that there are about 150 innings of question marks.  The difference between our opinions is that I think that we need to put the kids into the mix and see what we have.  150 innings would be way too much if we were talking about 1 or 2 rookies.  good for us that we have Whitley, James, Valdez, Perez, Armenteros, Martin and Bukauskas to call upon.  I hardly think anyone is going to get too many innings or be over worked.  Look at them all, see how their stuff plays with the big boys, get them ready for 2020.  Lord knows we are going to need them then.  

The problem with using them is that they will be getting innings in the minors while others are getting their chance in the majors. It doesn't matter where they're getting the innings, they'll still be worn out at the end of the season.

The only way I can see them being there at the end is an unorthodox rotation of three starts, three relief appearances and three abreviated minor league appearances to keep them getting regular work, but not over 120 inning by the end of the season. I honestly don't think we'd try anything that unorthodox nor would I suggest it would work. But I think we have 9 prospects which we could rotate in this manner.

[m240]

Feb 17, 2019 8:49:53 GMT -6 marshall said:

Feb 17, 2019 7:52:49 GMT -6 m240 said:

And I agree with both of you that there are about 150 innings of question marks.  The difference between our opinions is that I think that we need to put the kids into the mix and see what we have.  150 innings would be way too much if we were talking about 1 or 2 rookies.  good for us that we have Whitley, James, Valdez, Perez, Armenteros, Martin and Bukauskas to call upon.  I hardly think anyone is going to get too many innings or be over worked.  Look at them all, see how their stuff plays with the big boys, get them ready for 2020.  Lord knows we are going to need them then.  

The problem with using them is that they will be getting innings in the minors while others are getting their chance in the majors. It doesn't matter where they're getting the innings, they'll still be worn out at the end of the season.

The only way I can see them being there at the end is an unorthodox rotation of three starts, three relief appearances and three abreviated minor league appearances to keep them getting regular work, but not over 120 inning by the end of the season. I honestly don't think we'd try anything that unorthodox nor would I suggest it would work. But I think we have 9 prospects which we could rotate in this manner.

And I think that is exactly what is on Luhnow's mind.  When you stop and think about it, that is the only thing that makes any sense.  We have to get 3 of those 8 to be major league starters and the only way to do that is to see what each one of these guys can do.  What better way than to piggy back them and then give them a month off and then start them up again.  If we can win 50% of those games and 65% of the other 4 starters games then we win going away.  That gets us to 101 wins.  

[marshall]

Feb 17, 2019 0:38:05 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

Feb 17, 2019 0:00:37 GMT -6 marshall said:

Verlander and Cole are ready to go deep.

BUT,

None of the prospects outside of Valdez, who had 158 innings across 4 teams in 2018 (DWL, AA, AAA, MLB,) is ready to pitch into the post season

It's just a lack of innings pitched  in 2018. Letting the prospects get their seasoning is laudable and desirable looking ahead to 2020, but they'll all be worn out  with 30 inning more than 2018 IP well before the playoffs. I really don't want to win at a 75% clip in the first half only to fall off to 40% in the second half and entering into post season as the pitchers reach their innings limits which also wears out the Bull Pen right before the playoffs.

Both McHugh and Peacock have done well in the past, but both have had less than 80 innings/yr recently. Expecting 200+ innings of effective pitching just isn't realistic.

So I see a need, but is there any realistic chance of getting an effective 200 IP pitcher on a short contract?

I bet that one of Greinke or deGrom will be available at the deadline. But the receiving team would have to consider whether that pitcher was overworked from April through July in order to gauge how much gas he will have left in the tank for the playoffs. 

I find the dismemberment of the Diamondbacks and the teams included on Greinke's limited no trade list to be particularly interesting.

Team Projected finish (Bleacher Report)

Boston 1st ALE 101-61

NY Yankees 2nd ALE 100-62

Toronto 4th ALE 68-94

Baltimore 5th ALE 57-105

Minnesota 2nd ALC 87-75

Detroit 5th ALC 62-100

Oakland 2nd ALW 84-78

LA Angels 3rd ALW 82-50

Philadelphia 4th NLE 87-75

St. Louis 2nd NLC 88-74

Cincinnati 4th NLC 81-81

LA Dodgers 1st NLW 95-67

Colorado 2nd NLW 86-76

San Diego 4th NLW 77-85

San Francisco 5th NLW 66-96

Most of the contenders are on this list and all of them are in High Tax states.

But we're NOT on the list as of 11/18 and Arizona could be motivated to deal with us as one of the few potential suitors as the trade deadline nears. It sets up much like the Verlander trade with the possibility of his being traded along with cash to buy down the annual cost, particularly if some prospects go back in return to enhance their rebuilding efforts.

It creates a very interesting scenario for the playoff push and playoffs.

Also not on the No Trade list:

Cleveland 1st ALC 95-67

Atlanta 1st NLE 95.67

Washington 2nd NLE 91-71

NY Mets 3rd NLE 87-75

Chicago Cubs 1st NLC 90-72

[Deleted]

As of right now I am pretty confident we will win our division and make the playoffs. My question is, in the playoffs who starts games after JV and Cole? McHugh? Mid-season acquisition for a good starter? Miley?

Im fine going into the season with our roster, but I do hope a starter becomes available and Luhnow pulls the trigger for a number 3 starter.

[astrosdoug]

If ladies ever start playing in MLB, watch out for Quinn Biggio

[astrosdoug]

Feb 17, 2019 10:28:36 GMT -6 @inluhnowwetrust said:

As of right now I am pretty confident we will win our division and make the playoffs. My question is, in the playoffs who starts games after JV and Cole? McHugh? Mid-season acquisition for a good starter? Miley?

Im fine going into the season with our roster, but I do hope a starter becomes available and Luhnow pulls the trigger for a number 3 starter.

It's possible that by September we will all be comfortable with James starting the third game... while he may be the #5 starter, I bet his ERA is among the top 3 of the starting pitchers. 

McHugh could work for Game 3 of a postseason series but I'd prefer it be a tandem situation. Maybe McHugh and Whitley for 7 innings combined, followed by Pressly and Osuna. 

For the right price, I'd like to see Kimbrel join the staff. He could supply 75 or so innings of those 150 the team needs to fill, and he could do it in a quality way. In the playoffs you could have Pressly in the 7th, Osuna in the 8th and Kimbrel in the 9th. That stacks up well against whatever the Yankees pen might do. 

[astrosdoug]

Then again, Verlander - Cole - Greinke in the postseason would be formidable too.

[Deleted]

Feb 17, 2019 10:28:36 GMT -6 @inluhnowwetrust said:

As of right now I am pretty confident we will win our division and make the playoffs. My question is, in the playoffs who starts games after JV and Cole? McHugh? Mid-season acquisition for a good starter? Miley?

Im fine going into the season with our roster, but I do hope a starter becomes available and Luhnow pulls the trigger for a number 3 starter.

Like your screen name says, we have among the best GM's in the game, and I feel he will either (1) look like a genius and one  (maybe two) prospects will set the league on fire.  (2) work some magic like he did for JV in 2017, or (3) Find a diamond in the rough that will drop some jaws based on a resurgence, or untapped potential.  I mean someone who will come out of the blue.

I agree we should win the divison pretty easily.  Big question will be .......    Will we have enough guns to fight will the ESPN / American League East Elitist Cartel, and a biased COB office who wants to make sure WS is E/W Coastal only. 

[astrosdoug]

Maybe Talshill would like to venture a doctor's opinion, but Bregman's swing is looking good to me as he comes off the forearm surgery.

 

[astrosdoug]

The Padres are signing Aaron Loup, someone who in other seasons I'd probably like to see join the Astros. This year the team has the luxury of multiple lefty relievers who can probably do at least as well as Loup would do. But not so long ago Loup would have been a significant upgrade to the bullpen.

Padres are a funky team. Recently they have had outstanding bullpens, but have been pretty awful in all other areas. I guess when you are paying $25 million/year to players who aren't even on your team anymore, it really limits what you can do for the current season.

[astrosdoug]

Stroman is saying the Blue Jays haven't offered him an extension yet, so maybe if July rolls around and the Astros are still looking like they need a MOR piece, Stroman would be an option.

Greinke, Stroman, deGrom, MadBum, Godley might be some of the SPs to shoot for in July.

[paastrosfan]

Feb 17, 2019 11:30:34 GMT -6 astrosdoug said:

Stroman is saying the Blue Jays haven't offered him an extension yet, so maybe if July rolls around and the Astros are still looking like they need a MOR piece, Stroman would be an option.

Greinke, Stroman, deGrom, MadBum, Godley might be some of the SPs to shoot for in July.

The Mets just signed DeGrom to an extension, it looks like the Mets are in as usual in the beginning of the season. But this year they look serious. LOL

[astrosdoug]

Interesting to see Cam Maybin sign with the Giants as a NRI. Maybin and Marisnick are similar in many ways, though Jake is probably the more accomplished player.

If the Giants are open to having this kind of player on their roster, maybe there is room for a deadline deal that would snag a good pitcher from SFG while helping them solve their OF problem.

[astrosdoug]

I like how the Astros stand to face a higher level of Grapefruit League competition this spring by being in West Palm Beach rather than with the Tampa-based Grapefruit teams.

The Marlins are the only really crappy team the Astros will have to play regularly this spring, whereas if they were out in the Tampa area, they would have to play the Orioles, Jays, Twins, and Tigers a lot. I wouldn't want the younger Astros players to get a false sense of confidence by doing well against crappy teams. Better to let them face stronger teams and go home feeling the need to improve.

Braves, Phils, Cards, Nats, and Mets this spring should all provide some stiff competition for the Astros to work against.

[nathangarza29]

Stroman has made a buzz in Toronto. Showing his displeasure.

Also Castellanos has said he would sign an extension with any team he signs with long term

[astrosdoug]

Jays fans sound like they wouldn't be too distraught if Stroman were traded. However the organization probably wants to let him pitch there at least till summer in order to build back some trade value.

[abregmanfan]

Feb 17, 2019 14:19:59 GMT -6 nathangarza29 said:

Stroman has made a buzz in Toronto. Showing his displeasure.

Also Castellanos has said he would sign an extension with any team he signs with long term

If White hits 30 bombs then why do you want Castellanos?

[marshall]

Time to watch "Bull Durham."