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Post by nathangarza29 on Dec 11, 2018 23:51:50 GMT -6
I think Harper might actually become an Astro (if not, then Brantley), and I also think Tucker will be traded. Whether that will be for pitching or Realmuto is up for debate. I am a little concerned over what giving Harper the money it will take to sign him would do to team morale........will we have the money to extend Verlander and Cole? Will we be able to afford Springer, Correa, and Bregman? The fact that Crane shows he will spend the money to win can influence FA to sign with us and encourage our players to sign extensions. Revenue from ticket and merchandise sales continue to increase and that should help the money needed to be available. Lemme ask this How much on Verlander? Cole should get Patrick Corbin Deal! Springer could be up in the air and you gotta remember Reddick and Yuli should be gone in two years max. If Carlos doeant turn it around do you really wanna keep him? Bregman is a givin |
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 12, 2018 0:24:25 GMT -6
Ender Inciarte being shopped? Apparently the Reds are talking to tr he Braves on a deal for Ender. This is a type of player who can play CF for the Astros and move Springer to LF? Just a thought idk what it would take Inciarte has pretty good plate discipline and will avoid the strikeout well, but the lack of power is a minus. He's won Gold Gloves the last 3 years straight, and would allow Springer to move to a COF position like you suggest. Braves OF would be pretty thin if they move Inciarte though. They might ask for Myles Straw, though I would probably offer them the last 2 years on Marisnick's contract plus the last year on Harris's contract. Their pen only has two reliable arms now (Minter and Arodys Vizcaino) and I'm not sure to what extent Darren O'Day will contribute in 2019 after he had hamstring surgery last year. Harris would help them out a lot actually. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Dec 12, 2018 0:25:15 GMT -6
I am a little concerned over what giving Harper the money it will take to sign him would do to team morale........will we have the money to extend Verlander and Cole? Will we be able to afford Springer, Correa, and Bregman? The fact that Crane shows he will spend the money to win can influence FA to sign with us and encourage our players to sign extensions. Revenue from ticket and merchandise sales continue to increase and that should help the money needed to be available. It’s not a slam dunk acquisition for sure. Signing Harper would get the clock ticking for others here. i am beginning to think we can sign this guy,but, I'll believe it when I know it's official. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Dec 12, 2018 0:26:28 GMT -6
I am a little concerned over what giving Harper the money it will take to sign him would do to team morale........will we have the money to extend Verlander and Cole? Will we be able to afford Springer, Correa, and Bregman? The fact that Crane shows he will spend the money to win can influence FA to sign with us and encourage our players to sign extensions. Revenue from ticket and merchandise sales continue to increase and that should help the money needed to be available. Lemme ask this How much on Verlander? Cole should get Patrick Corbin Deal! Springer could be up in the air and you gotta remember Reddick and Yuli should be gone in two years max. If Carlos doeant turn it around do you really wanna keep him? Bregman is a givin If Correa can't turn it around, i'd trade him before he becomes a FA. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 12, 2018 0:35:25 GMT -6
With Reddick being a Georgia boy and all, I could see him going to the Braves as part of an Inciarte deal. Esp if Kemp is traded, Inciarte would hit well in that 9th spot as a high-OBP, low-strikeout guy.
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 12, 2018 3:48:23 GMT -6
I found an interesting note on Marisnick today regarding his minor league options (this issue having been raised a few times last season):
"Marisnick needs 40 more days on the major league roster in order to get 5 years of service time. Afterwards, he can decline a demotion to the minors and choose to be a free agent instead." (https://www.reddit.com/r/Astros/comments/a4x4st/how_likely_do_you_think_it_is_that_we_trade_tony/)
Just trying to anticipate what the opening day outfield might look like -- conceivably, Marisnick could start the season in AAA, esp if Tucker has another spectacular spring.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 6:36:16 GMT -6
I think Harper might actually become an Astro (if not, then Brantley), and I also think Tucker will be traded. Whether that will be for pitching or Realmuto is up for debate. I am a little concerned over what giving Harper the money it will take to sign him would do to team morale........will we have the money to extend Verlander and Cole? Will we be able to afford Springer, Correa, and Bregman? The fact that Crane shows he will spend the money to win can influence FA to sign with us and encourage our players to sign extensions. Revenue from ticket and merchandise sales continue to increase and that should help the money needed to be available. Good points coach. $300M to someone who might be the 5th or 6th best player on this team? Luhnow's smarter than that. Here's a few other reasons this jerk is WAY over rated. 1. Only had his first 100 rbi year last year (and barely...100 on the nose) 2. 169K's last year. JEEEEEEEZ!!!!! 3. Only a lifetime .279 hitter 4. .249 hitter last year. 5. Self centered jerk, who strives to draw attention to himself. Not the best for Astros clubhouse culture. I don't get why so many here want this POS. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 12, 2018 7:00:12 GMT -6
These were the Top 20 hitters last year by wRC+ (min 230 ABs). Astros did well to have two guys in the Top 15 and then Altuve at #26. Harper ranked #27 at 135 wRC+. So while he'd improve the Astros on the hitting side, we can't assume he would even be among the team's top 3 hitters next year. Harper's attitude doesn't bother me -- Bregman and Verlander have attitudes, too, and they both add tremendous value. I think all pro ball players eventually have to get used to working with teammates who have big egos. It's partially what made them successful in the first place. And even if Harper proved to be a complete a-hole, as long as he helps earn the team another WS championship while not breaking the law or MLB rules, I'm all for it. Other impact bats in this list who might be available in trade are Haniger, Ramirez, and Goldschmidt. I have to think Luhnow will surprise us.  |
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Post by marshall on Dec 12, 2018 7:11:32 GMT -6
I am a little concerned over what giving Harper the money it will take to sign him would do to team morale........will we have the money to extend Verlander and Cole? Will we be able to afford Springer, Correa, and Bregman? The fact that Crane shows he will spend the money to win can influence FA to sign with us and encourage our players to sign extensions. Revenue from ticket and merchandise sales continue to increase and that should help the money needed to be available. Good points coach. $300M to someone who might be the 5th or 6th best player on this team? Luhnow's smarter than that. Here's a few other reasons this jerk is WAY over rated. 1. Only had his first 100 rbi year last year (and barely...100 on the nose) 2. 169K's last year. JEEEEEEEZ!!!!! 3. Only a lifetime .279 hitter 4. .249 hitter last year. 5. Self centered jerk, who strives to draw attention to himself. Not the best for Astros clubhouse culture. I don't get why so many here want this POS. It sounds like you'd rather evaluate players based on production rather than hype. What a concept! |
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marshall
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Post by marshall on Dec 12, 2018 7:16:52 GMT -6
These were the Top 20 hitters last year by wRC+ (min 230 ABs). Astros did well to have two guys in the Top 15 and then Altuve at #26. Harper ranked #27 at 135 wRC+. So while he'd improve the Astros on the hitting side, we can't assume he would even be among the team's top 3 hitters next year. Harper's attitude doesn't bother me -- Bregman and Verlander have attitudes, too, and they both add tremendous value. I think all pro ball players eventually have to get used to working with teammates who have big egos. It's partially what made them successful in the first place. And even if Harper proved to be a complete a-hole, as long as he helps earn the team another WS championship while not breaking the law or MLB rules, I'm all for it. Other impact bats in this list who might be available in trade are Haniger, Ramirez, and Goldschmidt. I have to think Luhnow will surprise us. Who is that guy at 14 who can't even secure a full time starter's slot?
I think some of our needs are already in the organization.
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Post by m240 on Dec 12, 2018 7:37:44 GMT -6
These were the Top 20 hitters last year by wRC+ (min 230 ABs). Astros did well to have two guys in the Top 15 and then Altuve at #26. Harper ranked #27 at 135 wRC+. So while he'd improve the Astros on the hitting side, we can't assume he would even be among the team's top 3 hitters next year. Harper's attitude doesn't bother me -- Bregman and Verlander have attitudes, too, and they both add tremendous value. I think all pro ball players eventually have to get used to working with teammates who have big egos. It's partially what made them successful in the first place. And even if Harper proved to be a complete a-hole, as long as he helps earn the team another WS championship while not breaking the law or MLB rules, I'm all for it. Other impact bats in this list who might be available in trade are Haniger, Ramirez, and Goldschmidt. I have to think Luhnow will surprise us. Bregman had an amazing year. He had the sixth highest WRC+ while having the second lowest babip in the top 20. Amazing. |
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 12, 2018 8:01:55 GMT -6
I'm pretty sure Luhnow sees the value he's getting for that level of production at a cost of only $550k for the year. Doesn't make sense to replace White with a guy making $5 million or more who has, at best, a 50-50 chance of hitting any better.
Looking back at last year, the Astros have to be pleased with the offensive production at 4 positions:
Bregman (3B)
Altuve (2B)
White (DH)
Springer (OF1)
All of those guys finished with an OPS over .780; and while people had higher expectations for Altuve & Springer, the team isn't going to be crippled by anybody who is keeping that OPS over .780.
The real problem areas were the OF2 and OF3 positions, 1B, SS, UT, and C. That's a lot of stuff needing improvement, but Chirinos and Diaz have been steps in the right direction. I'd approach the other deficiencies like this –
SS – Presume Correa will heal up and get back to chasing that MVP award
OF2 – Presume Tucker will start hitting like a major leaguer
OF3 – Trade or FA (Granderson, Pham, Harper, D Peralta, Hanniger have all come up in trade talks)
1B – Trade for Abreu or Cron, or make 1B a Yuli/White platoon while getting a DH bat like Castellanos or Cruz.
It's always possible one of the farm hands will show they're ready in the spring. We never know, Reed or Davis or Straw might just hit their way onto the team.
Reddick is good insurance in case Tucker just can't hack it. If Correa's career starts to fizzle, that's a bigger problem because Alex de Goti is still a ways off.
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 12, 2018 8:10:35 GMT -6
Another affordable outfielder out there is Nick Markakis. He put up an OPS+ of 117 last year and I think the Astros could count on him for at least 110 this year. In case Tucker can't figure it out and Reddick keeps getting bit by spiders or whatever, Markakis could be good to have on the roster for a year.
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Post by m240 on Dec 12, 2018 8:34:14 GMT -6
If you create a starting line up without any more add ons and then assume that they have an average year (career average ops) it is painfully obvious that our outfield needs upgrading. It also illustrates just how badly the team under performed to their own career standards.
Springer CF 824
Altuve 2ND 818
Bregman 3rd 866
Correa SS 833
White DH 777
Gurriel 1st 772
Chirinos C 761
Reddick RF 757
Kemp LF 686
Bench 713
Diaz 783
Stassi 710
Marisnick 652
If we assume that Tucker can produce a league average ops then our "projected" starting lineup would have a "projected" starting line up ops of 793 versus 788 with Kemp. If on the other hand Tucker can produce at Springer levels as is his middle projected value then the starter ops would move to go up to 802. When you add in the bench then the projected ops would be 784 with Tucker at league average. To put that into perspective only Boston would have a better team ops. Adding Realmuto would put us at about the same level Boston from a projected stand point.
What it also does is illustrate very vividly that we no longer have the luxury of carrying 13 pitchers. So we really have to have another innings eater or just get comfortable with the idea that a lot of guys will be going up and down to AAA as their innings or usage gets too high.
Adding Brantley (career ops of 781) gives us insurance in case Tucker does not hack it and some additional insurance against White not continuing as he did last year. Adding Pollock (805) would be more expensive in both money and a draft pick and not really add much offensively. Adding Pollock though would allow us to get better defensively and would allow us to only carry 12 position players.
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Post by Saint on Dec 12, 2018 8:39:59 GMT -6
I think Harper might actually become an Astro (if not, then Brantley), and I also think Tucker will be traded. Whether that will be for pitching or Realmuto is up for debate. I am a little concerned over what giving Harper the money it will take to sign him would do to team morale........will we have the money to extend Verlander and Cole? Will we be able to afford Springer, Correa, and Bregman? The fact that Crane shows he will spend the money to win can influence FA to sign with us and encourage our players to sign extensions. Revenue from ticket and merchandise sales continue to increase and that should help the money needed to be available. I think they all mostly understand that it's a business and different people are going to get paid differently based on a whole list of criteria. To me, Correa has made it pretty clear he wants to explore free agency. A signing like this would tell him, "okay, if you go somewhere else we have a more established bat to replace you with". For players like Cole and Verlander, it signals that this team is maintaining a helluva team and I want to stay with a winner. If anybody gets butt hurt about it, they're probably not the kind of people we want anyways. |
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Post by Saint on Dec 12, 2018 8:43:58 GMT -6
I am a little concerned over what giving Harper the money it will take to sign him would do to team morale........will we have the money to extend Verlander and Cole? Will we be able to afford Springer, Correa, and Bregman? The fact that Crane shows he will spend the money to win can influence FA to sign with us and encourage our players to sign extensions. Revenue from ticket and merchandise sales continue to increase and that should help the money needed to be available. Good points coach. $300M to someone who might be the 5th or 6th best player on this team? Luhnow's smarter than that. Here's a few other reasons this jerk is WAY over rated. 1. Only had his first 100 rbi year last year (and barely...100 on the nose) 2. 169K's last year. JEEEEEEEZ!!!!! 3. Only a lifetime .279 hitter 4. .249 hitter last year. 5. Self centered jerk, who strives to draw attention to himself. Not the best for Astros clubhouse culture. I don't get why so many here want this POS. I think it's because even with a 10-year deal he'll only be 36 years old by the time it's over. And in the AL, he could DH if his defense slides. Plus, despite the lower AVG at times, he gets on base anywhere from 38-42% of the time and will hit 30+ HR probably every year that he's healthy. His inconsistency can be frustrating, but when you look at what he is capable of (his MVP season)....hard to not like that in your lineup. And with your number 5 you also just described Bregman and he seems to fit in fine. |
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Post by Saint on Dec 12, 2018 8:54:39 GMT -6
I'm not saying we SHOULD sign Harper. I think we can get 2-3 players to fill holes for the same annual cost it would take to get Harper. But, if we got Harper, it would be silly to argue that he wouldn't improve our offense. Even if you say worst case scenario that he won't improve at all and he'll stay inconsistent, his AVG season (even with some not amazing years when he wasn't healthy) looks like this:
132 Games: 26 HR 74 RBI 87 Runs 11/15 SB .279/.388/.512 .900 OPS 139 OPS+
Those are elite OBP and SLG numbers. Plus, if you got those numbers for 10 years he'd be on pace for the HoF with over 2000 Hits, 200 SB, and 400 HRs by the time the contract was over. The only other guy we've ever had meet those numbers? Bagwell.
And for the record, do you know how many players we have with an OPS of .900 or better for their career? 0.
There are some attitude concerns and his defense isn't amazing (but fine for a corner OFer), but the guy is a super productive hitter and is still quite young.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Dec 12, 2018 9:05:10 GMT -6
Source: Still in on Realmuto but not as strong. Still in on Cruz, #Astros are one of the teams he’s been talking to. As of now, looks like Happ is landing with the Phils. Today was “dialogue day.”
The Chicago #WhiteSox have meetings with Bryce Harper and Manny Machado but don’t view themselves as the favorites
So You may not have to worry about Happ.
Astros lingering on Realmuto.
Cruz in play
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Post by abregmanfan on Dec 12, 2018 9:08:58 GMT -6
My bet is Harper will be a Dodger.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2018 9:11:07 GMT -6
Dodgers are talking to the Cardinals about Martinez. Doesn't look like he would be in play for us. I'm sure Luhnow doesn't want to be involved in talks with the Cardinals anyways.
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 12, 2018 9:12:22 GMT -6
On the pitching side, the Astros finished last year with a 3.11 ERA after putting up 4.12 in 2017.
Let's say for argument's sake the pitching staff splits the difference in 2019 and posts at 3.61 ERA. To make up for extra runs allowed, I'd like to see that team OPS get up to at least .785. Last year the team finished at .754 and obviously that just didn't cut it once the competition got tough.
Based on the numbers m240 posted, it's going to take overhauling the outfield (and/or acquiring a star catcher like Realmuto) to get the team there.
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Post by m240 on Dec 12, 2018 9:29:17 GMT -6
On the pitching side, the Astros finished last year with a 3.11 ERA after putting up 4.12 in 2017. Let's say for argument's sake the pitching staff splits the difference in 2019 and posts at 3.61 ERA. To make up for extra runs allowed, I'd like to see that team OPS get up to at least .785. Last year the team finished at .754 and obviously that just didn't cut it once the competition got tough. Based on the numbers m240 posted, it's going to take overhauling the outfield (and/or acquiring a star catcher like Realmuto) to get the team there. As we sit here today we are a significant injury to either Verlander or Cole away from struggling to get to a 4.12 era. We need to pull the trigger on Grienke and sign Murphy/Cruz/Brantley/Pollock. Even without any money from Arizona we can do both and still have 20 million more under the cap. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Dec 12, 2018 9:30:39 GMT -6
My bet is Harper will be a Dodger. What tells me that we would have a hard time signing him is that he indicated he wanted to play on the East or West Coast and the big market teams are all in those areas. Of course, things could change but I don't see us paying him the money one of those teams will offer him. |
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Post by blcoach8 on Dec 12, 2018 9:32:38 GMT -6
On the pitching side, the Astros finished last year with a 3.11 ERA after putting up 4.12 in 2017. Let's say for argument's sake the pitching staff splits the difference in 2019 and posts at 3.61 ERA. To make up for extra runs allowed, I'd like to see that team OPS get up to at least .785. Last year the team finished at .754 and obviously that just didn't cut it once the competition got tough. Based on the numbers m240 posted, it's going to take overhauling the outfield (and/or acquiring a star catcher like Realmuto) to get the team there. As we sit here today we are a significant injury to either Verlander or Cole away from struggling to get to a 4.12 era. We need to pull the trigger on Grienke and sign Murphy/Cruz/Brantley/Pollock. Even without any money from Arizona we can do both and still have 20 million more under the cap. We need two starting pitchers and I hope Morton is one of them if healthy. Greinke will come cheaper than Syndergaard or re-signing Keuchel. We should offer to take on more of Greinke's salary and give Arizona lesser prospects. |
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Post by nathangarza29 on Dec 12, 2018 9:42:20 GMT -6
J.A. Happ to the Yankees 3yrs
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Post by nathangarza29 on Dec 12, 2018 9:44:32 GMT -6
I would want the lesser money if I got Grienke wouldnt care about that part the less money I would have to pay him over three years the better for me.
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Post by nathangarza29 on Dec 12, 2018 9:48:28 GMT -6
Rangers are the Astros biggest threat on Morton. Days seem to be to far from home
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 12, 2018 9:55:55 GMT -6
Out of the mix of Armenteros - Framber - Cionel - Josh James, I would expect at least one guy will prove a dependable #5 starter.
Not sure how many more innings Charlie Morton has in his throwing arm till he's ready to retire. If he can do at least 120 innings this year, I'd sign him, but otherwise it's better to give those innings to one of the young pitchers trying to establish himself.
McHugh worked so well out of the bullpen last year, I'd almost be hesitant to move him back into the rotation.
Brendan McCurry has shown flashes of brilliance at AAA the past couple years. Maybe he puts it together and becomes a two-inning reliever.
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Post by astrosdoug on Dec 12, 2018 10:05:37 GMT -6
Verlander
Cole
Greinke
Fulmer
James
BP: Osuna - Pressly - McHugh - Rondon - Smith - Harris - Perez
That would have to be my pitching staff that I would shoot for. I think you could get away with only 12 pitchers considering the stamina of the first four starters.
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Post by m240 on Dec 12, 2018 10:27:59 GMT -6
IF that starting staff did not put us back into the show then I do not know what would. I am guess that Valdez, Devenski, Bukuaskus, Peacock, and Armenteros would be part of the trade chips you would use. That should make a solid dent into what it would take.
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