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Post by thomasj13 on Aug 22, 2024 13:13:39 GMT -6
Apparently the Mariners are going to fire Servais today. Seattle is Out-of-Servais |
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Post by abregmanfan on Aug 22, 2024 16:46:56 GMT -6
If he tells you to meet him behind the woodshed, to receive the monthly prediction trophy, just say no. Wait a minute... |
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Post by Ashitaka on Aug 22, 2024 21:26:40 GMT -6
Yes. More info: library.fangraphs.com/pitching/xfip/Seth Martinez might feel like the better choice because his ERA (end results) have been better overall. But we have to remember that that does not mean he has actually pitched better. Ferguson has walked 1.2 batters more per nine innings than Martinez, but this translates to like one extra walk every nine outings when you think about it. Meanwhile he's striking out five more batters per nine outings. Ferguson has a BAbip almost .100 higher than Martinez too. He's simply pitched much better. His stuff is better. His track record is better. Dubin definitely needs to cut down the walks, but he's also getting BAbiped. WHIP doesn't take into account things like that, since it's just walks and hits. Martinez is going to have a much better WHIP because his BAbip is low right now. Martinez is also posting a notably higher strand rate than his career mark. Everything about him is indicating regression is due. It may not happen, but you make the decision (usually) on who is pitching better and who is likely to pitch better in the future. Ferguson is clearly the best. You could make an argument for Martinez over Dubin for non-statistical reasons, it's closer there. Ferguson has a BAbip near .400 in his very limited sample with us. It's noise. His stuff is good and he's good. Not exceptional but good. But historically Ferguson has allowed a lot of baserunners as well. I just don't like relievers that put a lot of guys on base even if they have high K rates. The more runners you put on, the more likely they score on those "noise" fluke hits. That's my concern with Neris. I know that "pitching to contact" has mostly gone away from this era of baseball, but I still believe there is some value to that. Plus, I think Martinez' dominance against righthanders is very valuable. Ferguson's career WHIP is 0.05 worse than Martinez, so I'm not sure where the idea comes from that he allows a lot of baserunners (compared to Martinez at least). Strikeouts reach base basically 0% of the time. Contact...more than zero. I'll take the strikeouts personally. And Ferguson's career GB rate is actually 6% better than Martinez's in any case. And a lot of Martinez's success vs. RHB was the previous two years when he had big strikeout rates against them. This year with his strikeout rate cratering he's been merely not awful against them and obliterated by lefties. Also, Ferguson has a career xFIP of 3.49 against RHB, and Martinez is at 3.77, so I wouldn't even say I trust Martinez more against RHB than the lefty Ferguson. Just across the board I cannot see Martinez as superior to Ferguson basically in any way other than the ability to go a second inning. |
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Post by Ashitaka on Aug 22, 2024 21:27:16 GMT -6
x.com/AstrosFuture/status/1826642449768612168"Forrest Whitley struck out the side last night for Sugar Land. He was up to 99 MPH but 5 whiffs on 5 swings with the curveball. He has a 1.02 ERA over his last 17 outings." Let's just keep letting him waste away in AAA.
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Post by Saint on Aug 23, 2024 9:13:34 GMT -6
But historically Ferguson has allowed a lot of baserunners as well. I just don't like relievers that put a lot of guys on base even if they have high K rates. The more runners you put on, the more likely they score on those "noise" fluke hits. That's my concern with Neris. I know that "pitching to contact" has mostly gone away from this era of baseball, but I still believe there is some value to that. Plus, I think Martinez' dominance against righthanders is very valuable. Ferguson's career WHIP is 0.05 worse than Martinez, so I'm not sure where the idea comes from that he allows a lot of baserunners (compared to Martinez at least). Strikeouts reach base basically 0% of the time. Contact...more than zero. I'll take the strikeouts personally. And Ferguson's career GB rate is actually 6% better than Martinez's in any case. And a lot of Martinez's success vs. RHB was the previous two years when he had big strikeout rates against them. This year with his strikeout rate cratering he's been merely not awful against them and obliterated by lefties. Also, Ferguson has a career xFIP of 3.49 against RHB, and Martinez is at 3.77, so I wouldn't even say I trust Martinez more against RHB than the lefty Ferguson. Just across the board I cannot see Martinez as superior to Ferguson basically in any way other than the ability to go a second inning. Overall they're both about the same in my book; it comes down to preference. I don't see Martinez as a big upgrade over either in any case. I mostly don't care fur Dubin very much at this point, but I think he has some potential. I like Martinez over Ferguson mostly because I like him as a multi-inning guy. In the end, I think our bullpen is actually surprisingly strong right now, and not because the Abreu-Pressly-Hader tandem has been amazing...since it hasn't. Which is why I didn't see the need for Neris. I'd rather give Whitley more of a look. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 23, 2024 9:28:35 GMT -6
Ferguson's career WHIP is 0.05 worse than Martinez, so I'm not sure where the idea comes from that he allows a lot of baserunners (compared to Martinez at least). Strikeouts reach base basically 0% of the time. Contact...more than zero. I'll take the strikeouts personally. And Ferguson's career GB rate is actually 6% better than Martinez's in any case. And a lot of Martinez's success vs. RHB was the previous two years when he had big strikeout rates against them. This year with his strikeout rate cratering he's been merely not awful against them and obliterated by lefties. Also, Ferguson has a career xFIP of 3.49 against RHB, and Martinez is at 3.77, so I wouldn't even say I trust Martinez more against RHB than the lefty Ferguson. Just across the board I cannot see Martinez as superior to Ferguson basically in any way other than the ability to go a second inning. Overall they're both about the same in my book; it comes down to preference. I don't see Martinez as a big upgrade over either in any case. I mostly don't care fur Dubin very much at this point, but I think he has some potential. I like Martinez over Ferguson mostly because I like him as a multi-inning guy. In the end, I think our bullpen is actually surprisingly strong right now, and not because the Abreu-Pressly-Hader tandem has been amazing...since it hasn't. Which is why I didn't see the need for Neris. I'd rather give Whitley more of a look. Son, it’s mainly Pressly that gives everyone acid reflux. Admit it. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 23, 2024 9:35:16 GMT -6
Overall they're both about the same in my book; it comes down to preference. I don't see Martinez as a big upgrade over either in any case. I mostly don't care fur Dubin very much at this point, but I think he has some potential. I like Martinez over Ferguson mostly because I like him as a multi-inning guy. In the end, I think our bullpen is actually surprisingly strong right now, and not because the Abreu-Pressly-Hader tandem has been amazing...since it hasn't. Which is why I didn't see the need for Neris. I'd rather give Whitley more of a look. Son, it’s mainly Pressly that gives everyone acid reflux. Admit it. Pressly is arguably the most dominant postseason reliever this franchise has ever had. He's having a down year for him due to mostly bad luck on balls in play, but I still roll with him in the postseason until he proves otherwise. 46 Games 3-0 14 Saves 2.22 ERA 1.030 WHIP (.811 in the WS!) 11.7 K/9 |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 23, 2024 9:43:51 GMT -6
Son, it’s mainly Pressly that gives everyone acid reflux. Admit it. Pressly is arguably the most dominant postseason reliever this franchise has ever had. He's having a down year for him due to mostly bad luck on balls in play, but I still roll with him in the postseason until he proves otherwise. 46 Games 3-0 14 Saves 2.22 ERA 1.030 WHIP (.811 in the WS!) 11.7 K/9 Not everything he allows is “bad luck”. For instance, walks. |
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Post by thomasj13 on Aug 23, 2024 9:58:10 GMT -6
Pressly is arguably the most dominant postseason reliever this franchise has ever had. He's having a down year for him due to mostly bad luck on balls in play, but I still roll with him in the postseason until he proves otherwise. 46 Games 3-0 14 Saves 2.22 ERA 1.030 WHIP (.811 in the WS!) 11.7 K/9 Not everything he allows is “bad luck”. For instance, walks. Bad ump |
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Post by Saint on Aug 23, 2024 10:28:23 GMT -6
Pressly is arguably the most dominant postseason reliever this franchise has ever had. He's having a down year for him due to mostly bad luck on balls in play, but I still roll with him in the postseason until he proves otherwise. 46 Games 3-0 14 Saves 2.22 ERA 1.030 WHIP (.811 in the WS!) 11.7 K/9 Not everything he allows is “bad luck”. For instance, walks. His walks are a little above his norms (+.5), but it's the hits that are considerably higher (+1.8) which is the big difference. But sure, not all hits are bad luck. In fact most aren't bad luck. But when you only pitch a few innings a week, it only takes one or two bad luck hits to make a huge difference. |
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Post by mihdennabios on Aug 23, 2024 12:06:05 GMT -6
I'm not liking the Neris signing. No one deserves to be removed to make room for him.
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Post by bearbryant on Aug 23, 2024 12:54:54 GMT -6
Martinez hasn't done anything to get demoted other than give up a couple homers recently
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Post by Saint on Aug 23, 2024 12:59:07 GMT -6
I'm okay with Neris if that means we rest some of the more important guys.
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Post by thomasj13 on Aug 23, 2024 13:15:43 GMT -6
I'm not liking the Neris signing. No one deserves to be removed to make room for him. I’m not a fan of Neris. I’m glad he was not extended, like Montero was. However, I’m not totally against him coming in and giving Scott and others rest. Just make sure some option clause doesn’t kick in |
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Post by mihdennabios on Aug 23, 2024 17:02:12 GMT -6
I'm not liking the Neris signing. No one deserves to be removed to make room for him. I’m not a fan of Neris. I’m glad he was not extended, like Montero was. However, I’m not totally against him coming in and giving Scott and others rest. Just make sure some option clause doesn’t kick in Scott is out of options. have to makeup an injury to make room |
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Post by Ashitaka on Aug 24, 2024 11:51:06 GMT -6
A bad deal no one remembers:
Back in April we traded for Jacob Amaya, and infielder, from Miami. He played in one game as a defensive sub. He stunk it up in AAA all year and was just DFA'd for Neris.
We sent some cash to Miami, along with Valente Bellozo, a AA pitching prospect. After six games in AA and seven in AAA, Miami called him up. He's posted a 2.45 ERA in his first six games, all starts and averaging over 5 innings per start, in the Majors.
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Post by Saint on Aug 24, 2024 14:16:27 GMT -6
Meh. Prospects come and go for all teams. Some are hits and some are misses.
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Post by Ashitaka on Aug 24, 2024 22:46:21 GMT -6
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koolade2
Veteran
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Post by koolade2 on Aug 25, 2024 8:59:19 GMT -6
I am not inpressed with Upper Managment at this point. Keeping Whitley down while they have pitchers giving up leads when the Astros should be winning those games |
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Post by thomasj13 on Aug 25, 2024 9:51:35 GMT -6
I am not inpressed with Upper Managment at this point. Keeping Whitley down while they have pitchers giving up leads when the Astros should be winning those games So you believe in the White Lie now? |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 25, 2024 9:55:22 GMT -6
I am not inpressed with Upper Managment at this point. Keeping Whitley down while they have pitchers giving up leads when the Astros should be winning those games So you believe in the White Lie now? No one believes in him really but numbers are numbers. I think he’s given up 2 earned runs his last 19 innings. Enough is enough. There’s no reason to wait until September. |
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Post by Ashitaka on Aug 27, 2024 11:36:32 GMT -6
Astros are about to sign the recently release Jason Heyward, who has barely hit above the Mendoza line this year. Where the heck is Tucker.
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Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on Aug 27, 2024 11:52:52 GMT -6
I can't believe some of yall are offended that the team got tired of wasting opportunities on that loser Whitley. Now, at age 40, he's had a few good innings, so the Astros should move heaven and earth to accommodate him?
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Post by Saint on Aug 27, 2024 12:00:45 GMT -6
Astros are about to sign the recently release Jason Heyward, who has barely hit above the Mendoza line this year. Where the heck is Tucker. Has to be better than Chas at this point. |
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Post by Saint on Aug 27, 2024 12:13:01 GMT -6
I can't believe some of yall are offended that the team got tired of wasting opportunities on that loser Whitley. Now, at age 40, he's had a few good innings, so the Astros should move heaven and earth to accommodate him? I don't know about moving heaven and earth, but giving some of our overly-used relievers a break seems like a good idea, especially if we also have a chance to give a 26yo reliever a look. I don't think anybody expects him to be some elite reliever, but there is a lot to be interested in him about if he's finally healthy and has his head right. |
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Post by mihdennabios on Aug 27, 2024 12:15:43 GMT -6
The Toreador from the opera Carmen, er, I mean the Oakland Athletics, is now available on the waiver wire since we are talking about waiver claims.
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Post by Saint on Aug 27, 2024 12:22:20 GMT -6
Heyward: .682 OPS (91 OPS+)
Basically he's at Meyers level and considerably better than Chas. Seems like an upgrade to me.
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Post by Ashitaka on Aug 27, 2024 13:30:21 GMT -6
I can't believe some of yall are offended that the team got tired of wasting opportunities on that loser Whitley. Now, at age 40, he's had a few good innings, so the Astros should move heaven and earth to accommodate him? I don't know about moving heaven and earth, but giving some of our overly-used relievers a break seems like a good idea, especially if we also have a chance to give a 26yo reliever a look. I don't think anybody expects him to be some elite reliever, but there is a lot to be interested in him about if he's finally healthy and has his head right. Yes. There's no one in our bullpen with better stuff than Whitley. His raw stuff is even better than Hader's. He might not realize that potential, and he might just get hurt again, but it's insane to have a talent like him, ready, performing, and not get whatever you can get out of it. |
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Post by unionstation82 on Aug 27, 2024 18:22:55 GMT -6
Todd and I discussed Heyward. It’s basically a nothing to lose move. I like it.
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Post by Saint on Aug 28, 2024 10:07:15 GMT -6
An OF Gamel-Meyers-Heyward isn't going to win any offensive awards, but it's pretty strong defensively and at least around average offensively. Which we are not getting that with OFs of Dubon-Meyers-Chas.....
(Although I don't see why we can't use Whitcomb in LF.)
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