|
|
Post by m240 on May 10, 2018 19:49:10 GMT -6
Here is an encouraging off-day stat on the Astros bullpen. We all know that the bullpen has often been quite bad in high leverage situations. So bad, in fact, that the Astros bullpen ranks dead last in MLB when the game is on the line. In those situations, the bullpen has a 10.50 ERA and opponents are hitting .364. It's like Barry Bonds just suddenly appears at the plate in these situations. The good news is that the Astros relievers aren't really pitching very badly in those situations -- in terms of the % of swings and misses they are generating,the ratio of strikeouts to walks, the amount of weak contact, the number of ground balls, etc. Based on all those things, the Astros bullpen has an xFIP (we can sort of think of it like a predicted ERA) of only 3.06 and opponents "ought" to only be hitting .222. The results going forward should, in theory, trend more towards that opponent batting avg of .222 and ERA of 3.06. I can live with those numbers! that is some good regression right there. |
|
|
|
Post by unionstation82 on May 27, 2018 17:16:53 GMT -6
Bump. I’m not picking on Giles, but who do you trust most in pressure situations in that bullpen?
|
|
|
|
Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on May 27, 2018 18:39:35 GMT -6
I trust Sipp more than I trust Giles. Compare their pitching over the last 2 days.
|
|
|
|
Post by Saint on May 27, 2018 18:50:43 GMT -6
I trust Sipp more than I trust Giles. Compare their pitching over the last 2 days. Compare them over the last two years. |
|
|
|
Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on May 27, 2018 18:57:53 GMT -6
Tie
|
|
|
|
Post by Saint on May 27, 2018 19:22:11 GMT -6
Pffft. Come on.
|
|
|
|
Post by thomasj13 on May 27, 2018 19:44:00 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Saint on May 27, 2018 19:46:50 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by thomasj13 on May 27, 2018 19:49:27 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Saint on May 27, 2018 19:50:53 GMT -6
I don't remember what DK means. Gone too long. |
|
|
|
Post by unionstation82 on May 27, 2018 19:53:05 GMT -6
I trust Sipp more than I trust Giles. Compare their pitching over the last 2 days. ROFL |
|
|
|
Post by abregmanfan on May 28, 2018 12:01:01 GMT -6
Bump. I’m not picking on Giles, but who do you trust most in pressure situations in that bullpen? Devo. |
|
|
|
Post by olpapa on May 29, 2018 11:00:38 GMT -6
I trust Sipp more than I trust Giles. Compare their pitching over the last 2 days. I absolutely agree with you. |
|
|
|
Post by olpapa on May 29, 2018 11:03:20 GMT -6
Bump. I’m not picking on Giles, but who do you trust most in pressure situations in that bullpen? Devo. Agreed. Right now he is the only one in the bullpen I trust in pressure situations....and none-pressure situations too actually. |
|
|
|
Post by unionstation82 on May 29, 2018 12:20:32 GMT -6
Agreed. Right now he is the only one in the bullpen I trust in pressure situations....and none-pressure situations too actually. Also, whatever magic Peacock had last season needs to come back. He’s had like two or three first pitch walkoffs already this season. He hasn’t been the right reliever to mop up bad innings. |
|
|
|
Post by ɮօʀȶǟʐ on May 29, 2018 13:01:07 GMT -6
Agreed. Right now he is the only one in the bullpen I trust in pressure situations....and none-pressure situations too actually. Also, whatever magic Peacock had last season needs to come back. He’s had like two or three first pitch walkoffs already this season. He hasn’t been the right reliever to mop up bad innings. Peacock can only be expected to be competent if the score is exactly 6 to 5. It's unfair to him to expect him to be competent under any other situations. |
|
|
|
Post by blcoach8 on May 29, 2018 13:09:30 GMT -6
We need the Peacock we had last season
|
|
|
|
Post by Saint on May 29, 2018 13:39:17 GMT -6
Interestingly, Peacock is most effective as a reliever with either only one day of rest (1.35 ERA) or 5 or more days of rest (1.42 ERA). Anything in between and he struggles. He's also another guy who is better on the road than at home normally.
|
|
|
|
Post by unionstation82 on May 29, 2018 13:40:02 GMT -6
Interestingly, Peacock is most effective as a reliever with either only one day of rest (1.35 ERA) or 5 or more days of rest (1.42 ERA). Anything in between and he struggles. He's also another guy who is better on the road than at home normally. Good lord, how do you know this? |
|
|
|
Post by Saint on May 29, 2018 13:41:08 GMT -6
Interestingly, Peacock is most effective as a reliever with either only one day of rest (1.35 ERA) or 5 or more days of rest (1.42 ERA). Anything in between and he struggles. He's also another guy who is better on the road than at home normally. Good lord, how do you know this? , son. Use it, learn it, love it. |
|
|
|
Post by unionstation82 on May 29, 2018 13:41:23 GMT -6
Todd, how do you explain Giles closing out a 5-1 win? THAT’S NOT A SAVE SITUATION!
|
|
|
|
Post by Saint on May 29, 2018 13:42:35 GMT -6
I'm lost. Did I say he got a Save? That doesn't sound like me...
|
|
|
|
Post by unionstation82 on May 29, 2018 13:44:45 GMT -6
I'm lost. Did I say he got a Save? That doesn't sound like me... But he’s most effective in save situations, not for protecting a big lead, right? |
|
|
|
Post by Saint on May 29, 2018 13:53:37 GMT -6
And I never said he COULDN'T pitch in non-save situations. I just said he was 9/9 of this year in Save situations. I think he's doing fine. If you look at his games pitched he has had two very bad games that inflate his numbers. I'm really not worried about the bullpen at this time.
I think it would be nice to add another shutdown type reliever if we reasonably could, but I think our bullpen is very solid overall.
We have 4 far above-average relievers statistically (Rondon, Devenski, Peacock, McHugh), and there is no reason to believe that Giles and Harris won't be at least around the 3.00 ERA mark for the season. Sipp is actually performing pretty well. Smith had a bad streak at the end of the April that is inflating his numbers too (7 ER in three strait appearances).
Could the bullpen be better? Sure. Are they a problem at this point? Certainly not.
An extra reliever like Herrera that Doug has been pushing would be great, but, in the end, this bullpen has been doing very well. The offense's inability to score runs for Keuchel and Verlander has been the biggest thing to complain about. Verlander should be undefeated and Keuchel should be, at worst, 6-4.
|
|
|
|
Post by Saint on May 29, 2018 13:55:08 GMT -6
I'm lost. Did I say he got a Save? That doesn't sound like me... But he’s most effective in save situations, not for protecting a big lead, right? Actually technically for his career he has been better ERA-wise in non-save situations. But this year he is 9/9 in Save situations, which is what we got him for. |
|
|
|
Post by Saint on May 29, 2018 14:17:34 GMT -6
For comparison, since we're talking about closers (Save situations) here are a few career success rates for active primarily 9th inning routine closers:
Giles: 84%
Kimbrel: 90%
Jansen: 89%
Colome: 86%
Chapman: 89%
And for fun: Mariano Rivera (greatest closer ever?) is at 89%.
5% less than the greatest of all-time. Is Giles good? Yeah, he's a far better than average reliever. Is he a shutdown reliever for any situation? Certainly not.
He's a good closer who has done well in save situations, and who is relatively cost effective as well. He's not going to be perfect because no closer is. Anytime a lead is blown late it's frustrating, but even the best blow saves. Even the best have had bad games. Even Rivera blew Game 7 of the World Series.
|
|
|
|
Post by thomasj13 on May 29, 2018 17:31:03 GMT -6
I'm lost. Did I say he got a Save? That doesn't sound like me... You Giles Lover!!! (must be the squats) |
|
|
|
Post by thomasj13 on May 29, 2018 17:32:06 GMT -6
I don't remember what DK means. Gone too long. I believe DK was me saying you were David Koresh, because of your cult following...You said DK = Dark Knight.... |
|
|
|
Post by Saint on May 29, 2018 18:17:21 GMT -6
That's right I remember now. I guess I married one of my followers!
|
|
|
|
Post by unionstation82 on May 29, 2018 20:52:29 GMT -6
Todd, you said it’s better to use Giles in save situations, but he pitched effectively in a non-save outing yesterday.
His success on a given day depends on his command and what’s between his ears.
|
|
